The title of this post comes from Steve Richards' comment piece in The Independent.
Has British politics changed in some sustainable way in the last few days?
The ICM poll putting Labour at just 29% appears to confirm that Darling's budget has produced a significant shift towards the Conservatives. The Tories are 8% ahead on economic competence. Boris is 12% ahead of Livingstone.
In his sketch of yesterday's Commons business Quentin Letts certainly senses a shift in power to the Conservatives:
"Two minutes before Messrs Darling and Brown arrived in the Chamber, complete with a couple of flunkeys but otherwise without fanfare, there had been a more noticeable entry. The Tories' three main men, David Cameron, William Hague and George Osborne, had swept in past the Speaker's Chair towards their places on the Opposition front bench. As soon as they strode into the House at 3.26pm there was a silence from other parts of the Tory benches. It was the sort of hush you get from a school assembly when a powerful headmaster enters the hall.
Other Tory MPs shifted slightly away from the trio, making room for them, junior members of the pride not wanting to be too close to the big beasts. Why should this be? Cameron, Hague and Osborne, after all, are only in opposition. But is there maybe an expectation growing at Westminster that these three will be running our affairs after the next general election?"
Let's wait and see. Stephan Shakespeare has warned about "frothy opinion polls". Let's see what the polls are saying in a month or so but let's also hope that they produce a dynamic effect.
Economic competence, leader image and party unity are the three parts of the iron triangle of political success. Labour is steadily losing its reputation for economic competence. Gordon Brown is looking shaky. Some panicky disunity on the Labour benches in response to these polls would complete the decline.
At both the 1979 and 1997 elections I was telling at the polling stations as I have done since 1966. What made 1979 and 1997 so different was the very clear and at times quite vocal desire of the voters to "get rid" of the then government
There is certainly a growing feeling that the tide is turning in our favour, but the challlenge for Messrs Cameron Hague and Osborne is to engender the same " get rid" determination by the voters when the next election comes, which the way the wind is blowing is still 2 long years away
Posted by: michael m | March 18, 2008 at 09:41
When Labour enjoyed massive opinion poll leads between 1994-97 their party remained remarkably disciplined throughout. I wonder if the Conservatives can manage it?
We had healthy opinion poll leads in May/June last year ,by late summer they'd gone. Let's (all of us,from DC downward)ensure we don't make the same mistakes again.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | March 18, 2008 at 09:42
After 18 years of hell, suddenly even the little things are starting to go our way. Livingstone forced onto the defensive in London over Lee Jasper. Jonathan Powell's damning indictment of Gordon Brown in the national press this week- painting our national leader as a mean spirited, bitter and partisan figure. And he should know.
Ed Ball's "so what?" gaffe , widely reported and condemned, and badly lied about by the man himself.
We now need to plan for the possibility-it is no more than that at the moment, of Labour ditching Brown before the next election. Today's Guardian is an interesting weathervane of the current climate within Labour. Dame Polly audibly grinds her teeth in frustration as Dave camps wisely on the Family Friendly territory she bogusly claims as her own.[Lesson for the anti Cameron Tory minority here] Charles Clarke attacks Brown snidely from the Labour Right, John Trickett MP attacks Brown from the soft Left. And all in the same edition ! If these polls continue with this trend, and if we win London in May, every Labour MP with a majority of under 10,000 faces defeat, and they all know given Brown's history that there is absolutely no prospect of the Prime Minister changing his behaviour before it is too late.
Posted by: London Tory | March 18, 2008 at 09:46
Whilst I agree with Stephan Shakespeare's warning, I think this may be what they call in America "The Big Mo". We need to work hard to build on it and not rest on our laurels.
Posted by: Woodentop | March 18, 2008 at 09:48
What do you mean 'steadily losing their reputation'? Going from a supposedly rock solid economy (pun intended) to an economic nightmare in six months is a pretty quick demise in my books!
Posted by: Letters From A Tory | March 18, 2008 at 10:29
Malcolm - The dip last summer was Gordon's honeymoon, every new PM gets the same and his was actually very short lived. History would show that we have disipline problems when things are going badly, not when things are going well.
Posted by: RobD | March 18, 2008 at 10:29
Support for the Tories is a mile wide but an inch deep. Until we give people a powerful reason for voting Conservative we are vulnerable to a Labour recovery or to events.
Posted by: Alan S | March 18, 2008 at 10:56
I'd love to hear Hague develop the Foreign brief and strategy a bit more, the domestic stuff is doing O.K. but Miliband seems to be getting off the hook right now.
I wonder what the Tory party's position on China and the Olympics might have been if we were in government?
Posted by: Curly | March 18, 2008 at 10:57
@Alan S
Labour will struggle to turn this around because their key personnel are all wrong.
Alisdair Darling for instance resembles Lamont more by the day.
Reports of Brown screaming at No.10 typists is so reassuring, can you imagine Thatcher or even Blair behaving like this ?
Posted by: London Tory | March 18, 2008 at 11:02
People are waking up to the fact that the economic 'stability' of the last 12 years has been nothing of the sort and all that we have is a mountain of debt and a vast government budget.
Stormy seas clearly lie ahead and Darling/Brown are either in denial or don't know what to do. Possibly both.
I think there is an assumption that despite what Cameron and Osborne are saying now, an incoming Tory government will have to cut taxes and trim the waste out of the state to enable people to keep the wolf from the door.
Posted by: Mike | March 18, 2008 at 11:26
And in 1997 I was telling on behalf of Stephan Shakespeare- an excellent candidate then who did not deserve to lose- if only he came back- he is the sort of Conservative candidate we want!
Posted by: michael m | March 18, 2008 at 12:14
This site consistently talks down big opinion poll leads for the Conservatives but talks up any decline in opinion poll leads. I wonder why?
Posted by: Jack Stone | March 18, 2008 at 14:50
Where does it do that Jack? Just for once enter into debate.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | March 18, 2008 at 14:59
Like all control freaks the world over, when a situation seems to be letting them down, their reaction is to TRY to impose even tighter control - in a marriage, in a company, OR as a leader! Same as sitting on a volcano!!!! We are waiting ( that phrase should be sung)
Posted by: Patsy Sergeant | March 18, 2008 at 15:40
Malcolm read the posts and the editorials then your see. We all know what the agenda of this site is!
Posted by: Jack Stone | March 18, 2008 at 16:07
er,I've read the editorial. It states 'the Darling budget has produced a significant shift to the Conservatives'. Furthermore the editorial states 'Gordon Brown is looking shaky.Some panicky disunity on the Labour benches would complete the decline'.
What could you find wrong with that? Further the vast majority of posters on this site are hoping and praying for a Conservative victory as I am.
Very few posters on this site are as resolutely negative as you Jack.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | March 18, 2008 at 16:41
"Support for the Tories is a mile wide but an inch deep. Until we give people a powerful reason for voting Conservative we are vulnerable to a Labour recovery or to events."
Absolutely . The polls are encouraging but only that and there will be many a fluctuation ahead . There is, as of yet, no overwhelming lead demonstrating a new consensus and a desire for a new start.
Apart from the increasingly well argued roll of existing policies , the Conservatives need something else . Something to project them overwhelmingly in the lead , rather like Mr Salmond in Scotland. That something is simply lying waiting to be grabbed and run with .
The Conservatives should announce that they will ,if elected, order a referendum in England as to whether there should be an English Parliament within the United Kingdom .
Remember , Mr Blair himself in an interview with the Yorkshire Post in early 2006 said in an unguarded moment that such a motion would be supported "overwhelmingly" . His own use of words .
So why not put the Conservatives at the head of this idea and its implementation ?
For too long the Conservatives have been reticent about constitutional matters , based I suspect , on a rather foggy understanding . Labour have seen them off every time on any mention of devolution . Time to stop being the stupid party for once and time to grab the initiative on this matter and make Labour , who have had everything constitutional all to themselves for more than 10 years , look the stupid ones .
Posted by: Jake | March 18, 2008 at 16:50
Labour destroyed the Conservatives leading up to 1997 by hammering home their lies to all who would listen about economic incompetence and other things. Why, when it is so patently obvious how everything that the Labour government does fails abysmally, cannot the opposition point this out frequently and repetitively. Saying that tax cuts will not be considered in the first term may be sensible but use it. Let the people know that it is the inadequacy of the overpromoted idiots in power now that has left the country in such a diabolical state and Conservative MPs should repeat it and repeat it and not stop until after the next election. Also there is so much waste why can't it be pointed out that tax cuts are possible without cuts in sevice if the slack is taken up. It's too easy to take the Labour line that Conservative tax cuts lead to cuts in service. This is not necessarily the case when there is so much money being wasted by this lot. The Conservatives need a Labour-destroying mantra. It worked for Labour in '97. That's about the only success Labour has had.
Posted by: Janet | March 18, 2008 at 17:35
Absolutely correct, Janet at 17.35:
"Also there is so much waste why can't it be pointed out that tax cuts are possible without cuts in sevice if the slack is taken up".
I have suggested we change the mantra from "Sharing the proceeds of growth..." to "Sharing the proceeds from reducing government waste...".
Not really earth-shattering but realisable as you say.
Posted by: David Belchamber | March 18, 2008 at 18:06
Cameron is so obsessed with winning the tactical skirmish with Labour on the home front, that he is in danger of missing out on the strategic battle on the really big issues, such as the impending world food shortages,global financial instability and dwindling fuel resources. Sadly, there is no sign of real Conservative leadership on any of these issues. So called 'green initiatives' may be a useful add on in times of wealth and prosperity, however, if people are going to transfer their allegiances away from Labour they will look towards a party which can offer a credible policy more likely to safeguard their jobs and their homes. We are still waiting-- Mr Cameron.
Posted by: David Parker | March 18, 2008 at 18:34
"and Conservative MPs should repeat it and repeat it and not stop until after the next election." Posted by: Janet | March 18, 2008 at 17:35
One problem that seems to me to go back to pre 1997 election is that so many Conservative MPs are not wanting to fight. There is still so many of them from the good old days of fighting socialism who almost enjoy being apolitical and see themselves as Conservative MPs because of their superiority rather above the blood and mud of a political fight. (I actually wonder if some of them see themselves of politicians at all.) I have often wondered if the "A" listers are being brought in to make a change.
Posted by: David Sergeant | March 18, 2008 at 18:50
'see themselves as Conservative MPs because of their superiority rather above the blood and mud of a political fight'.David Sergeant 18:50.
How true this appears to be. The House seems akin to an old boys club - everyone in it together occasionally having a go at the other side though we all know that they will be dining or drinking together later. Even William Hague with his rare debating skills would usually end his attack with a good hearted chuckle. We need some rottweilers on the tory bench.
Posted by: Janet | March 18, 2008 at 21:19
'see themselves as Conservative MPs because of their superiority rather above the blood and mud of a political fight'.David Sergeant 18:50.
How true this appears to be. The House seems akin to an old boys club - everyone in it together occasionally having a go at the other side though we all know that they will be dining or drinking together later. Even William Hague with his rare debating skills would usually end his attack with a good hearted chuckle. We need some rottweilers on the tory bench.
Posted by: Janet | March 18, 2008 at 21:21
Steve Richards in The Inde...some of the rest this article...quoted above.
For David Cameron and George Osborne, the verdicts of the weekend's polls vindicate their strategy of not dangling tax cuts in front of the electorate at every opportunity. Of course, two fleeting polls are not the end of the matter and they will continue to face pressure from within their party and from influential websites and newspapers.
I remember Tony Blair, an astute and over conscientious observer of his opponents, telling me a few years ago that the Conservatives were ill-served by "their newspapers". He explained that in the 1980s the few Labour supporting newspapers urged the party to move to vote winning positions, while from 1997 the Tory papers tended to propel their party rightwards towards electoral oblivion. At least now Mr Cameron has the protective shield of high poll ratings to resist falling into another tax cutting trap.
Posted by: Northernhousewife | March 18, 2008 at 23:24
"while from 1997 the Tory papers tended to propel their party rightwards towards electoral oblivion."
Northernhousewife, that was a problem during John Major's premiership way before 97'. He complained about the lack of support for a more centre right Conservative position during that period.
I noticed a real shift with both the Telegraph and the Mail when Cameron was elected, the more he pulls the party towards the centre of British politics the more they have criticised.
That is why I don't worry about losing the support of either newspaper, our poll ratings have gone up the more we have distanced ourselves from the views of journalists like Daley and Heffer in particular.
And remember the obsessive way the Mail carried on against Cameron during the leadership contest regarding his life before politics. It was very much against the mood of the public at the time and came across as extremely petty.
Posted by: ChrisD | March 19, 2008 at 00:15
Although I do wish Mr Cameron and company will be occupying the seat of 'government' comes the next election the sad fact is that they will not be running the country in the excepted sense of the word, as that function has been handed over to the EU.
Posted by: track rat | March 19, 2008 at 10:44