New ICM poll confirms surge in Tory support

48 hours ago ICM had the Tories 9% ahead but in a survey for tomorrow's Guardian the party leads Labour by 13% - just 3% short of Sunday's sensational 16% Tory lead.

The news on economic competence will also encourage George Osborne that his 'reassurance, reassurance' approach is certainly not harming the party's standing:

"Asked which economic team they trust most, 40% of voters pick David Cameron and George Osborne and only 32% Brown and Darling. This suggests the budget, which left little impression at Westminster, has distilled public fears about the economic situation, with Labour taking the blame."

Earlier today a YouGov survey for the London Evening Standard put Boris Johnson 12% ahead of Ken Livingstone in the Mayoral race.

Comments

[Votedave]

Hows about that then? :)

[Andrew Woodman]

Tories take Bootle!!

[Tony Makara]

The pressure must be growing on Alistair Darling to be moved in favour of a fresh untainted face, but who? Cooper and Kelly do have an academic grounding in economics but none of the real-life experience that the vital position of chancellor requires. The choice of the next chancellor could make or break Brown's chance of winning the next election. A period of economic downturn is not the time for 'Amateur Hour' at number eleven. Gordon Brown has to get it right or he can kiss goodbye to number ten.

[Conservative Homer]

Part of me wants labour to stay in power for a few more years and face the dire consequences of their disastrous mismanagement. That way maybe the public will see them for the clueless criminals in suits they really are. I want them out of power for a generation.

[m dowding]

LabourHome have woken up to the mess they're in. Don't you just love it. Their blog is deserted but they are too dumb to notice. However, the mess we are in as a nation after ten plus years of atrocious mis-management is no cause for any joy. Also, do not forget, we have still to see the books!

[Helen Smith]

This reminds me of a quote from Lady T

'I sometimes think the Labour Party is like a pub where the mild is running out. If someone does not do something soon, all that is left will be bitter and all that is bitter will be left'.

[MrB]

It seems that both the glass ceiling of 40% for us, and the glass floor of 30% for Labour have truly been broken. Tipping point or temporary bounce though?

[bluepatriot]

Traditional Tory has been missing for a few days!!

I wonder why!!

:)

[James Burdett]

This is the second poll that has put Labour sub-30 in support. That must be of extreme concern to Labour HQ. I think that these latest set of polls add significance to the local elections, I think a strong set of results and Boris defeating Ken would solidify this type of lead. I think a midling set of results and not kicking Ken out would lead to a narrative that the polls are not backed up by actual electoral evidence. I think the former is more likely as a result of polls like this and those at the weekend and the mayoral poll. I think that we could then see the May results kicking the polls higher still.

[LondonIsKey]

Anyone like me love The West Wing - who remembers the Big Mo? We have Momentum now, 13-16 points ahead but how do we keep the Big Mo going.... I think it all hinges on London Mayoralty and we must win this, it will spell disaster for Brown. So, how do we keep this lead and win London?

Thoughts?

[ChrisD]

"Tipping point or temporary bounce though?"

Good question, especially in light of how the polls have swung in their favour, and then against them over the last 10 months.
I think the bottled election was a tipping point that they could recover from, but IMHO this is more serious and has a lot more to do with the economy. Higher taxes combined with increased fuel, energy, food, mortgages bills have all combined to really start hurting people's disposable income.

I think that we are finally seeing Labour going into a serious decline which I doubt they can recover from. I don't think the economy can be turned around, but more importantly because of the high level of government debt Brown/Darling have virtually no room to manoeuvre with the public finances in the run up to the next GE.
They are basically flying by the seat of their pants on a wing and a prayer at the moment.

[Andrew James]

Another good poll - but unfortunately it's not enough to confirm a new trend in our favour. We need to poll consistently above 40%, and Labour likewise 30% and below. Labour's ratings in this poll and the Yougov poll are very encouraging for us.

What is not consistent about the two polls is the support for the Lib Dems - 5% is a considerable discrepancy. In truth, we need the Lib Dems to poll closer to 16% to maximize our chances of winning. But with Labour polling under 30% anyway, 41% would actually be enough to win a general election, even with the Lib Dems at 2005 levels. But with so long to go until a GE (2010 surely), Labour cannot be written off and could quite easily regain support IF economic conditions have improved by then.

[Matt Wright]

I think Brown's bottled election put a fatal flaw into the Labour structure and its now starting to crack as more problems come along. No doubt they will run around trying to stick props in here and there but its going to be very hard to stop it falling.

[Ash Faulkner]

This made me laugh. Ever since the first poll we got on this, I was scratching my head trying to think what had sent us so far ahead all of a sudden. Only now, with this second one, have I realised - the Budget! It was so pathetic a budget that I actually forgot it happened, and I study politics! I think that says it all about Darling and Co!

[Stewart Buchanan]

Great news being so far ahead in the polls, but I think it's important we realise there's a lot more left to do. We've been ahead in the polls before, but the devil's been in the details where Brown and Darling have been seen as the best duo to tackle economic problems and the like. As well as the party as a whole being double digits ahead of Labour, we have to have sustained double digit leads in the major areas of concern, such as the NHS, education, crime, immigration, economic competence, welfare reform, taxation policy etc. When this is achieved, then Brown is truly finished and we can get on with the business of decimating them at a General Election.

[Matt Wright]

Stewart, yes I agree. The key now is to continue building a positive, authentic alternative. Now is the time to step up a yet another gear in our effort.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

It is possible that Gordon Brown will postpone the Election until May 2010. Knowing that he will probably loose, he will cling on to power as long as possible. I doubt that it will be a defeat 1997-scale, but enough to give the Tories a workable majority.

Now we need to shore up the Council-elections in May, win London and secure the By-Election in Henley.

[Iain Martin]

Great news for the party. Can't understand why the LibDems are up to 21% with a divided party behind a leader without huge support, and with the Conservatives' socially liberal policies now coming to the fore it seems bizarre that we're not attracting more of their voters.

[rightsideforum]

All well and good.

But what is the point in winning when we won't win as conservatives?

I mean, not offering tax cuts is the most absurd position a Conservative Party has ever taken.

Brown will lose badly at the next election, it's now a near certainty, but it won't be because Cameron is such a great alternative or even that Britain has moved rightward. Hacks might be happy with that outcome, but those of us of principle - real conservative principle fail to get all that excited.

[rightwingery]

SSSSSOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUNNNNNNDDDDDDDD

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Rightsideforum:

"But what is the point in winning when we won't win as conservatives?

I mean, not offering tax cuts is the most absurd position a Conservative Party has ever taken."

There are more to Conservatism than tax cuts. A Conservatism merely based on cutting taxes is anemic and weak.
I agree with you that the Tories should cut taxes, but the "Broken Society"-agenda is just as importan, and just as Conservative.

"Brown will lose badly at the next election, it's now a near certainty, but it won't be because Cameron is such a great alternative or even that Britain has moved rightward. Hacks might be happy with that outcome, but those of us of principle - real conservative principle fail to get all that excited."

There are many real Conservatives who are very happy with David Cameron, just as there are Conservatives who are unhappy with him. The Tory Right does not have a monopoly on Conservatie Principle.

[Malcolm Dunn]

'But those of us of priniple...fail to get excited'. Speak for yourself. I'm a mainstream Conservative and I'm very excited.
Clearly rightsideforum you have little knowledge of the history of the Conservative party. It has usually taken a fairly pragmatic stance on the economic management of the country. What would really be absurd really absurd is to offer tax cuts at a time of huge borrowing without identifying much larger cuts in public spending first.

[rightsideforum]

Malcolm Dunn - my post was very careful to distinguish between conservative and the Conservative Party. I'm not arrogant or rude enough to claim you don't know the difference between the two.

The fact is - cutting taxes is an enormous part of being a conservative. Tax cuts help stimulate the economy and can be achieved by cutting the mountains of waste built up by Labour. People like yourself are oddly probably the first to moan about that - yet you will happily make the case for more of the same and a near identical economic policy that will cost us the same, i.e. far too much and offer us little more back.

To Buckinghamshire Tory, you are right, we don't have a monopoly over Conservative Principle - by which I assume you refer to the party.

However, leaving part identity aside for a moment, what it means to be a conservative is pretty much set in stone and always will be. That doesn't mean there isn't room for debate or that everybody has to follow along like sheep - but generally speaking, offering tax cuts and cutting down of government waste and spending is quite essential.

Otherwise, if we're offering no tax cuts and the status quo with regard spending commitments - what is the difference between us and the Labour Party?

Not a great deal.

[ChrisD]

"The fact is - cutting taxes is an enormous part of being a conservative."

Daniel Finkelstein has a must read article that would you should read.
The truth about Tories and tax
He ends the article with this comment, "Much of the tax cutting debate on the right is, I am afraid, a combination of wishful thinking, historical revisionism and immaturity."

[Henry Cook]

Rightsideforum, could I recommend you read this article by Peter Riddell in tomorrow's Times?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3571793.ece

You will learn that the Thatcher government had to sort out the public finances before it could cut the tax burden. In fact during the first term of government, the tax burden rose by 5%. Unfortunately, Labour have created such a mess that similar restraint may have to be exercised by a Cameron-Osborne government. Please let us not re-write history and say all successful Conservative governments are tax-cutting ones - in fact, successful Conservative governments put sound money before tax cuts.

[Conand]

My god! We might really have a chance to help people make things better!
These polls always give me a huge adrenaline rush and I can't sleep. As a low level party functionary I need my sleep. I don't want to start popping pills like Maggie.

[Edison Smith]

Please, no bubbly. No hyperbole. No glee.

Just continue to strive.

If you live in London, contact the Boris campaign and distribute some leaflets down your road.

If you live outside London, travel in.

If it's too far too travel in, make yourself useful at your local association.

Now's the time to put the foot on the gas, not take it off.

[Joe James Broughton]

A good poll. Well done.

The vile Lib Dems are too high (at least according to ICM). They need to be crushed. Destroyed.
However, other companies show them much lower.

We still need to make sure all the votes for people who want a change of government come to us.

[One of those vile Lib Dems]

Ian Martin @ 22.25 wonders how the Lib Dems are managing to poll 21%, and why more of them aren't flocking to the Conservative cause.

Joe James Broughton @ 23.57 describes the Lib Dems as "vile".

May I suggest the pompous and opinionated JJB shows just why most Lib Dems are not attracted to the "nasty party"

[Mr Angry]

A few thoughts:

To consolidate this lead we must do two things; 1) win the London Mayoralty to clearly demonstrate that we are a winning alternative to Labour when it counts & 2) now that the electorate have gone off Labour we must give them good reasons to support us instead. That means a slate of policy announcements designed to appeal to a largely disenchanted and cynical electorate that has a short atention span and often limited interest in or understanding of political party policies.

Can we please stop with this, I'm a real Conservative, no I'm the real Conservative stuff folks. We are all Conservatives and none of us is really any more mainstream or representative than another. Yes it is a shame that Cameron and Osborne have fluffed the tax and spending issue and that they still do not understand that most ordinary voters are finding times hard with the current tax burden.However there is time for that debate to evolve still and the key thing at present is to cement that lead so as to be able to broach the subjects, like tax cuts and immigration, that fear of the liberal media mafia have currently made impossible to talk about properly.

Oh and whilst all LibDems are not vile, in my considerable experience they do have more odious individuals as members than do any of the other parties.They also have some very nice ones too, who are just in the wrong party.

[YMT]

A lot of this depends on the economy, which from the sound of it is going to be in a right mess if we win the next election. Cameron is right in saying that we won't be able to offer immediate tax cuts as its going to be a hard process to fix the mess the UK is in, so being sensible is the only option. Sudden election winning jolts could make matters worse.
That said, we'll have to see how much is left after 2010, I can already see Chinese and Indian companies buying up our financial sector as things get worse and worse.

[Oberon Houston]

I think on the whole we have the right strategy with regards to public spending and taxation. The fact is that the public expect a Conservative Government to reduce spending and taxation - and indeed so do we - the trick is not to spread a panic that we are going to go about it like a fox in a chicken coup.

The NHS isn't good value for money, it isn't being run properly and it can be improved, but we are not trying to preach to the converted here. We need to convince the unconvinced. Those folks don't want snake oil salesmen telling them that we can slash spending and still provide a better service for their family. The situation is changing and people are unsettled by Labour incompetence, but the last thing we need is a Neil Kinnock Sheffield Rally moment. Softly softy with catch the monkey. Then we need to prove our point through a measured and results based approach.

I've always thought the 'Hare theory' was a case of some Tories getting high on smoking their own dope. I'm a reassuring Tortoise, not a scary Hare. Look, what choice do voters have?

[Miranda]

My 'fourpennyworth'. Labour is on the slide, good; but rather than the Conservatives going up on the other end of a see-saw, you need to gain your own upward momentum.

I agree with Edison Smith 23.48, get people out working on the grass roots. And don't just look at all the old ways of canvassing support. There are many new ideas and new media for reaching different types of people. At Central Office you have a useful tool called Voters Vault.

Secondly, I still say you need a unifing vision, not lots of different policies - many of them short term like tax. Surely the Conservative Party will cut tax eventually, that has not changed (vision of self determination). But we are in such an economic mess I can see why tax cuts may not be immediate. (So get people behind the sacrifice to mend our broken society.)

Why come out on a 'no tax cut' ticket, why not say something along the lines of 'when productivity has increased then money will be given back'. I realize you have to be careful of the term 'public sector cuts'. Productivity or something similar plays to a 'vision' of competence and fairness; cuts plays to a vision of 'nasty' as it has done in the past.

You made exactly the same mistake with Grammar schools! And that is what causes the arguments over 'real Conservatives'. Bury the hatchet, agree on the vision, promote that, then you can debate the best way of getting there - and disagree.

[Mike]

Oberon Houston, I think you've hit the nail on the head.

Despite the softly, softly approach regarding tax and public spending I think the public expects that an incoming Tory government would have to lower taxes substantially and cut out the non-essential dross from public spending if the economy is going to have any chance of recovering from the economic firestorm that is just hitting.

The LibDem vote looks robust because there are so many disillusioned Labour voters. Go onto the Guardian CiF and you'll struggle to find anyone who thinks Labour has done a good job.

[brian kelly]

The utter wanton waste everywhere of this government must be the first priority for any incoming conservative government to tackle. Further, to bring competence, common sense, consistency, responsibilty, and a 'long view' to governance. To rebuild probity and the finances of this nearly bankrupt country - some would argue we are already bankrupt. To govern in the interests of all the country. To carefully and over time to reduce taxation. There are a myriad of other, urgent, problems -NHS, crime education, immigration, defence, over regulation of business, increasingly intrusive state and the EU, our status vis a vis Scotland to mention just a few. And the conservatives, remember, also need to win a further GE. All this is a tall order. But there is not a doubt at all that this country is at a very real crossroads - to be a seriously failing socialist state in thrall to a powerful EU or to win for ourselves again independence of action - to build a strong economy and defence - to ensure we have a strong, influential and respected voice in the world.

[I support SNP now]

The English are going tory. I support independence for Scotland now. There is no way a Scot can get respect in England. We should leave the union while we don't get shafted on the way out.

[Run away from the union now]

There is no way Scotlandd would survive tory rule we need out of the union now Immediately.

[No More Boom & Bust.]

Well Aaaaaaaarrrrrllllll Riiiight.!!!

Seriously though. I hope these recent polls shut up many of the why-dont-we-have-a-30%-lead-in-the-polls-DC? idiots on here.

BTW, the Tortoise & Hare bunch have gone quiet recently.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

rightsideforum:

I think there is more that unites us than divides us. We both agree that the current level of taxes is far too high, and that a future Conservative government should lower them.
I don't think there is a single Tory that genuinly wants the current taxation level to remain in place.
The main difference is priorities. I want to have tha taxes reduced, but only after we have sorted out the public finances. That will most likely take a few years, considering the mess that Labour will leave us.