In The Red

A look at the context of Alistair Darling's first Budget.  Data supplied by the Tory Treasury team.

Comments

[Tally]

we've known all this for years but the tories did nowt about it. The conservatives have been the worst opposition in history so we can't expect them to be any good in government can we?

[Malcolm Dunn]

All very true. But what do we propose?

[Serf]

The public finances of Pakistan and the tax burden of Germany.

History will not be kind to Mr Brown.

[Tory Tax Cutter]

and yet no promise to over turn any of it from Boy George.

[Martin Coxall]

Such a promise would fall on deaf ears.

Any politician who wishes to be taken seriously has to earn the right to be believed and trusted. We are only just embarking on that long and slow road.

We simply have to take it on faith that, as a Tory, Osborne will simply be innately better at maintaining an economy.

@Malcolm Dunn:

"We" don't propose anything. We're in opposition. We OPPOSE.

[Sammy Finn]

We're not opposing though Martin, we've bought in to Labour's spending juggernaut.

[Tory Tax Cutter]

a long slow road indeed - after 11 years in opposition! oh dear, oh dear.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Rubbish Martin. We are trying to be seen as a credible alternative government. Just Opposing everything is not enough.

[Letters From A Tory]

The worry is that the majority of these messages are not getting through to the public at large and are mostly confined to political circles. Ken Livingstone have shoved up his share of council tax by about 300% and still most Londoners don't realise this.

What is the Conservative Party doing about getting this message out there?

[johnC]

'What is the Conservative Party doing about getting this message out there?'

We are repeating the ludicrous nonsense of 'stability before tax cuts' and pledging to match Labour's grotesque spending plans.

We don't deserve to govern.

[tim holden]

Those who live on state benefit or government salary form a huge percentage of the electorate. The current Labour Government is in power by virtue of a vote that has been bought. If Labour claims to represent the working classes, then "working class" is now best defined as being those who do not work, and those who pay people to not work.

[Martin Coxall]

@JohnC:

That's fine, you mat vote Labour at the next election to express your dissatisfaction.

@Malcolm Dunn:

I'm not saying we should never have an economic policy of our own, and I'm sure we'll have something approaching a complete vision for a new economy by the time the Manifesto comes out.

But on budget day of all days, we need to oppose. Let's hope we don't screw up as badly as we did last year when we had to rely on Vince Cable being the one to point out that Labour doubled incom tax for the poor. It seemed to have passed the entire Tory front bench by.

[Ryan Stephenson]

The Tories are a bit hamstrung. In order to balace the books and put the economy on an even keel they would need to cut public spending drastically. 3million people currently working for the government or on government projects would be put out of work. The Tories would then need to put a proper inductrial policy in place to stimulate industry, particularly exporting industry.

The problem is the first bit isn't exactly attractive is it. "In the first year of office we will put 3million people on the dole". The medicine may be absolutely necessary but rather too painful for those that feel they might be the ones taking most of the cure!

So the Tories can't stand on an economic policy that promises to put the economy on an even keel - especially right now when relatively few people are really being hurt by the economy. Cutting public spending would be attacked by Labour and frighten those currently working on public sector projects that are struggling to pay mortgages. By standing on the same economic platform as Labour they triangulate, leaving Labour little option but to attack the Tories in oter ways.

It matters little. The Tories will win the next election not based on their own promises but based on Labour's failings. The Tories will gain power, look at the books and take the only options open to them by then, which will be to drastically cut public spending. Osborne doesn't need to appeal to commenters on ConservativeHome. He knows we will vote Tory to be sure of getting rid of Brown.

They know exactly what they need to do to be sure of winning. We just need to hope they know what to do with the power once they have got it. Margaret Thatcher said before her first election victory that "things would get worse before they got better", but she certainly didn't spell out that 2million more people would end up on the dole and there would be yet more strikes! Why put obstacles in the way of a certain victory over a terminally weak Labour government?

[ChrisD]

"It seemed to have passed the entire Tory front bench by."

Having to stand up and respond the minute the Chancellor sits down is the toughest job in opposition. Considering the time the main opposition is given to peruse the budget that Brown(its still Brown not Darling) has spent months compiling would be okay if he didn't attempt to turn it into a modern day tomb of epic proportions designed solely to confuse and hide the bad news.
Brown has turned dishonesty into an art form with his use of paper and ink. Most people don't realise the implications until it bites them on the backside personally with their own finances.

[ChrisD]

Benedict Brogan is reporting that "It's a "Responsibility" Budget". He summarises it with "Britain remains "well placed to deal with these difficult economic circumstances". The Prime Minister's spokesman summarised him thus: "The priorities for the Budget are to act responsibly to maintain economic stability, to address the challenge of climate change and help hard-working families."

Looking at the list Tim has compiled at the top of the thread combined with the nationalisation of a bank and the huge injection of funds into the money markets just this week the words "Crisis what Crisis" springs to mind!

[cjcjc]

"The Tories will gain power, look at the books and take the only options open to them by then, which will be to drastically cut public spending."

Yeah, I'll believe that when I see it.

No government has *ever* actually cut spending.

[David Bodden]

@Tim Holden:

You are mistaken that people on benefits support nuLieBore. I’m on benefits and I hate them with a passion so great that it will probably end with me being locked up or dead very soon. I am on benefits because nuLieBore put me there; my livelihood was stolen. I don’t want to live like this and I have begged for help, but have been refused. I might be an extreme case, but I am not alone.

[Alan S]

Osborne doesn't need to appeal to commenters on ConservativeHome. He knows we will vote Tory to be sure of getting rid of Brown.

Or we can sit on our hands.

[Charles]

The interest on the national debt is £31bn a year. Why can't the Tories promise to pay off the national debt, and cut taxes at it falls?

We could have a giant thermometre in Parliament Square which tracks debt, as used by church-roof fund-raisers, so everyone would could follow progress. As the debt fell below £400bn, £300bn, £200bn etc certain taxes would be automatically reduced or abolished.

When the debt was gone we could hold a day of national celebration.

It would also negate the classic Labour attack on Tory tax cuts - that they are unfunded. This way £31bn could be cut for no loss in expenditure.

[ChrisD]

"Or we can sit on our hands."
Like the Libdems did last week and by default letting the Labour government get way with its cynical behaviour?
If after the last 10 years you would prefer to keep Brown in office by some petty default then why not go the whole hog and vote for him? Why not join the Labour party, I hear they are struggling for funds and could do with the extra wee bit membership brings in!
The Labour party is like its government, financially and morally bankrupt.

[passing leftie]

You say all this, ignoring the terrible irony that you are committed to his spending (and hence taxation) plans for two years. If it's so awful, then surely it would be deeply opportunistic to offer to follow these plans after an election, just to win power? How desperate are you?

Be Tories! Promise to cut taxes and public expenditure (except for Defense, Jail and the Police.) Give us a real choice.

[Mark Fulford]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, promising tax cuts is counter productive and unnecessary.

Counter productive because it’s not credible that we can make savings without damaging essential services while also spending more on police, prisons, defence, etc.

Unnecessary because, to win the next election, we don’t have to differentiate ourselves on tax and spending. Instead we can win the battle on better answers for healthcare, education, policing, defense – all the other areas where Labour also screw up.

No, my friends, we don’t need to divert the argument and ruin our credibility by promising tax cuts. If a Conservative government really can save billions without affecting frontline services, we don’t need a mandate to do so. Who is going to complain when, four years into our government, the tax bill is billions less because we were quietly, almost unnoticeably more efficient?

[Martin Coxall]

@Mark Fulford:

What bothers me about the notion of making a promise to cut a specific "X billions" is its essential arbitrariness.

It definitely won't sit well with our message of trustworthiness and fiscal rectitude that Dave and George have worked hard to polish.

[johnC]

'we can win the battle on better answers for healthcare, education, policing, defense'

We could if we had any.

Healthcare ? No alternative to the wasteful, inefficient, bureaucratic monolithic NHS - just throw even more money than Labour at it (A. Lansley)

Education ? Hostility and criticism of the few remaining grammar schools (D. Willetts)

[Watervole]

Yellow is the new brown, Brown is the new red, 'nuff said. He will bleed this country dry and this latest budget delivered by his darling mouthpiece, is no exception. It looks as though we are now to be taxed for living, moving and breathing - we are already taxed for dying.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Tories are a bit hamstrung. In order to balace the books and put the economy on an even keel they would need to cut public spending drastically. 3million people currently working for the government or on government projects would be put out of work.
Cuts in business taxes would help generate jobs in the private sector, the state does have to be downsized, but it is not the only place where cuts could be made that would not impact on jobs - benefit rates in some cases could be cut and the NHS drugs budget, benefits for variable rate things such as housing for example could be switched to low interest loans repayable the same way as Student Loans.

[Mark Fulford]

What bothers me about the notion of making a promise to cut a specific "X billions" is its essential arbitrariness.

Martin, I think you must have misunderstood me. I wouldn't make any promises of savings or tax cuts.

JohnC, I understand that you don't like our position on grammar schools, even though it has hardly changed from the reality of the last 30 years. What about the rest of our education policy? Ditto health? If you read these and still think that we haven’t got any of the right answers, I’m really not going to be able to persuade you here.

[Alex Swanson]

If after the last 10 years you would prefer to keep Brown in office by some petty default then why not go the whole hog and vote for him?

Don't be childish. It's perfectly reasonable to complain if Conservative policies look identical to Labour's. And from where I'm sitting they're pretty close.

What about the rest of our education policy? Ditto health? If you read these and still think that we haven’t got any of the right answers

I shouldn't have to read them! Is that what you're going to say after the next election defeat? That it was the electorate's fault because so few of them went and spent their evenings diligently trawling the party website?

If there really are worthwhile policies, then the relevant people should be out selling them. They should be sending out summaries to email lists. They should be having briefing meetings for party activists, writing newspaper articles, doing TV interviews. But they're not. I'm a political junkie, and my wife is a teacher, so if anybody should be picking up what the education policy is it should be me. But I'm completely ignorant, because nobody cares to tell me.

And if push comes to shove, people should be able to guess. Cameron and his team should have made their principles and beliefs clear, so that even if they didn't tell you what they thought about something, you could pretty much predict it anyway. They haven't done that. All we've had so far is an opinion on W H Smith selling chocolate oranges, and a politically correct control-freak approach to party organisation which is completely at odds with the claimed belief in localisation.

[ChrisD]

"Don't be childish."
Excuse me but that is exactly what sitting on your hands would be.
The Libdems were childish to storm out of the HoC when they did not get their own way, and even more reprehensible was sitting on their backsides while the referendum amendments were being voted on? How many constituents were not represented at all by those 50 MP's?
Sitting on your hands and not voting at all achieves nothing.

[Mark Fulford]

Alex, I’m afraid you’re not much of a political junky if you don’t know your own party’s policies! However, I completely agree with you that winning the next election depends upon getting our broad range of policies known, not on cutting taxes.

[johnC]

I was going to try and reply to Mark, but thank you Alex for doing so better than I could.

I think the party is still failing to set a clear agenda which resonates with the concerns of normal people trying to make ends meet with higher taxes and soaring bills, and with the continuing decline of standards in public services despite the ever increasing public money pouring in.

On health and education I think the key change needed is for the state to become a guarantor rather than provider of the service, through education vouchers and a health insurance scheme, and to liberate them from the dead hand of state control.
Tinkering at the edges is not going to solve the problem.

We need to be a lot more radical and courageous in our thinking, as we were in the 1970's.

[Mark Fulford]

They should be sending out summaries to email lists. They should be having briefing meetings for party activists, writing newspaper articles, doing TV interviews.

Alex, you mean summaries like the "A bad news Budget" email message (complete with video) that I just received from George Osborne?

[Richard]

A bold move for the Tories would be to promise to balance the budget every year. Without raising taxes...

[Derek W. Buxton]

Some people live in dreamland, it is past time to wake up and look at the disaster we are facing. I agree that you cannot make firm promises of tax and spending cuts and things will most certainly get worse before they get better. BUT the country is going to hell in a handcart, now! The "conservative" party, if it wants to win, has to come up with much clearer ideas than I have seen so far. "We will improve schools", HOW? Nothing done so far has worked and Cameron is bent on following the same policy --"if I say it, it will be" , Bliar Mk. 2. It did not work for him and it will not work for Cameron. The same goes for the NHS, beloved of the leader, but then he doesn't get the scruffy hospitals and mixed wards. It needs a thorough, wide ranging intellectual debate first, but that is not going to happen, sacred cows are after all, sacred cows, and then there is the EU, which the party does not understand.

[TrevorH]

"we've known all this for years but the tories did nowt about it." - the Tories put themselves forward at two general elections. The public did not give them enough votes. Who do you blame?

To slyly blame Conservatives, the opposition, for the present mess is pathetic.

How does, how can, anybody KNOW how good or bad an oposition will turn out to be in government. But there comes a time when no matter what one thinks that you simply have to vote the incumbents OUT. That time is clearly now.