Labour ahead!%#?

We don't want to spoil peoples' weekend but the above poll has just been published on Ipsos-MORI's website.  A 10% lead for the Tories in the previous MORI poll has become a 1% Labour lead.  This position is very different from recent surveys for ComRes and YouGov which both put the Conservatives 8% ahead but not too dissimilar from an ICM survey which gave us only a narrow 2% advantage.

The fieldwork for the Ipsos-MORI poll was 17-23 January - so before Hain's resignation and certainly before all the Conway controversy.  We should wait for some post-Conway polls before drawing any conclusions.

Comments

[Sean Fear]

All of the polling was done prior to Hain's resignation.

It is an older poll than those for ICM, Yougov, and Comres.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Blimey! This would be very bad news if it's correct. Labour are getting absolutely no positive press at all so I do find it quite hard to believe but I suppose it's possible.
I doubt the Conway affair will do us many favours either so I expect our polling numbers may decline for a while.

[Paul]

Completely puzzled. How can Brown receive a 6 point rise?

[bluepatriot]

This poll is old and MORI are very volatile. I'm not worried.

[Tony Makara]

I wonder how many mothers answered the poll? The policy to make mothers look for work once their child is four is going to lose votes. Its a bad policy, bad for the kids, bad for their mums, and bad for the party's reputation as being pro-family. Of all the Conservative party policies it is the one that I would like to see changed.

[Sean Fear]

Actually, it was conducted at about the same time as the ICM poll putting us 2% ahead, but both Yougov and ComRes (giving us 8% leads) are more recent. Perhaps there was an upward spike in Labour's support in Mid January.

[Dale]

This is because we havent heard from david cameron for weeks. We need a new policy every other week atleast!

When it looked like We were going to lose an immediate election, David Cameron would be gone a few weeks after and everybody was scrambling to be his successor (eg george osbourne, no uber moderniser he) Everybody got their finger out and things started to look better.

The momentum is now lost and it needs to be found again.

[Sally Roberts]

I hope this is a "rogue poll", but if it is isn't I think it merits rather more attention than Mr Hannan's antics!

[christina speight]

Mori itself - if you follow the link - is obviously puzzled and suggests that the economic news is so dismal that the public may be battening down the hatches and sticking with someone they know. They haven't got the message at all that it's Brown who is the cause of the mess.

Cameron's person al rating has slumed.

[christina speight]

Sorry "SlumPed"

[alex]

The MORI polls was conducted on 17-23 January and gave Labour 38, Conservatives 37. The ComRes poll was conducted on 25-27 January and gave Labour 30, Conservatives 38.

Therefore you must either question the validity of one or both polls or conclude something (Peter Hain?) made Labour's popularity slump back in mid/late Jan after a post-Christmas spike.

[Sean Fear]

Personally, I think it's just one of the curious results that get thrown up from time to time.

Still, we do need to get our finger out, as Dale says.

[Sean Fear]

Alex, you can't directly compare polls carried out by different companies, because their methodologies are different.

I don't think Labour's support rose sharply in mid January, or fell sharply thereafter. Labour have polled in the range 30-35% in every other poll in January, so is this likely to be an outlier.

[Tony Makara]

As David Belchamber and myself have pointed out time and time again, the party needs to set up a media rapid-response team and the moment Labour start to dupe the public with their lies about full employment, more NHs dentists etc, the rapid-response team should spring into action, get a quote from the appropriate shadow minister and get it out and aired on all peak time news broadcasts. If the public hear Labour make a false statement and no-one from opposition counters the claim. the public are going to believe it must be true and we won't win their vote.

[Andy Hall]

On 'the polls' : has anyone in here ever voted in them? Does anyone know of anyone who has taken part in them? It's always seemed to me that "no-one in particular" comes up with these results...

I think Brown's running out of members for his frontbench, after 10 years of constant 'reshuffles' and the press certainly isn't his best friend of late - but up here in the North West, I virtually never hear or see of Cameron except in the torygraph!

[Praguetory]

In fairness I think this is a sign of insufficient/incoherent rebuttal of Northern Rock/police pay issues. Our response has been sub-par on both of these important issues.

[alex]

I'll defer to the expert!!

However your answer still means that we shouldn't cry into our beer tonight or hold back from hitting the doorsteps tomorrow.

[Annabel Herriott]

Dont you think it all depends on WHO they phone??? I have never ever been phoned!!!
I shall remain sceptical of bias. It depends also on WHO the poll is for!! Left or right.

[Deputy Editor]

MORI statement given to ConservativeHome and PB.com:

No doubt you will notice that fieldwork was conducted more than a week ago; the delay in release was due to the fact that we were doing additional checks on the data as we did not expect to see a Labour lead (albeit a very small one)! However, we are confident that the data is correct and that it does reflect a temporary ‘blip’ of support for Labour, which was linked to dissatisfaction with Cameron and potentially also concern about the economy.

As you can see, net satisfaction with the Govt and Brown has increased since December (Govt: Net of -37 in Dec to -33 now; Brown: Net of -23 in Dec to -16 now), but net satisfaction with Govt and Brown among party supporters has dropped (Govt: Net of +21 in Dec to +17 now; Brown: Net of +41 in Dec to +28 now). This suggests to us that the very slight Labour lead figures are due to floating voters (or neutrals) moving towards Labour — despite their dislike of Brown himself.

This is also reflected in the ICM poll carried out over a similar time period, which also showed a Tory share of 37%, and showed a Labour share of 35% (well within the margin of error to our poll).

[christina speight]

I note nobody takes Mori's own explanation seriously !!!

This was no a phone ppoll it was a face-to-face questionnaire

And Andy Hall - Yes I have and several people I know too!

[Traditional Moronity]

Disgusting.
Clegg is sweeping the board.

[Matt Wright]

Seems slightly odd at the time it was conducted in particular

[Votedave]

Too ridiculous to believe. They must have done their research in Bolsover or Jarrow. Mind you, Labour were often ahead in 1978 - WE SHOULD NOT PANIC.

And to think Labour tried to present David Cameron's idea of scrapping police red tape as their own! Did anyone see that beautifully written commentary from the Daily Telegraph the other day entitled "Copycat government."

I think there's some truth in what Dale says however - David Cameron must do all he can to put the focus away from all this Conway stuff and present more of the excellent ideas that I mention - and expose Labour for the disgustingly fraudulent copycats with no ideas of their own that they are.

[Sean Fear]

If Julia Clark is correct, then perhaps the very short term effect of bad economic news is to make people turn to the government, seeking reassurance, before turning away from them, once the implications sink in.

But I still it's more likely it's an outlier.

[Comstock]

Wow I didn't see that coming!

I've always said I think Labour will lose one of the next two general elections but in todays Guardian, Charles Clarke says if Labour can win again, this could be the start of a 'progressive century' in the model of Sweden etc.

You may have ruined others weekends, you just made mine :)

[Praguetory]

I know someone who votes in these polls. His words - I always try to vote how I think the rest of the public are.

[Tony Makara]

Comstock, I lived in Sweden and Denmark during the 1980s, so I lived in the Scandinavian socialist model state twice. In Sweden I paid 53% starting rate taxation, but Denmark wasn't quite as bad, the Danes only made me pay a 51% starting rate. The tax regime didn't stop there either, there was a 'Moms' vat-type tax on practically everything I bought and everything was expensive. Its a good thing I was on 60Kr an hour (about six quid) otherwise I would never have survived.

[Traditional Tory]

All of the polling was done prior to Hain's resignation.

And of course, the Conway saga...

Cameron's person al rating has slumed.

Sorry "SlumPed"

Christina, I preferred the original ;)

[Sean Fear]

Well, I don't want to spoil your weekend Comstock, but two more recent polls each put the Tories 8% ahead.

[Sally Roberts]

Thought you'd be happy, Comstock! ;-)
Make the most of it....

[Ledger]

Some idiot>> Dont you think it all depends on WHO they phone??? I have never ever been phoned!!!

If they phoned 1,000 people randomly a month then, *on average* you could be expected to be phoned every 1,500 years. Of course, you'd have to wait 3,000 years before you were sure you'd get a call.

Please do some maths next time.

[Graham Checker]

"Wow I didn't see that coming!

I've always said I think Labour will lose one of the next two general elections but in todays Guardian, Charles Clarke says if Labour can win again, this could be the start of a 'progressive century' in the model of Sweden etc.

You may have ruined others weekends, you just made mine :) "

Absolute rubbish. You are delusional.

If Labour win next time, they will be annihilated the time after that.

This is Britain sunshine, not Scandanavia.

Governments don't win forever...

[David Belchamber]

I don't think we should exult or agonise over polls. What we should be doing is, firstly, exactly what Tony Makara suggested at 17.50:

"the party needs to set up a media rapid-response team and the moment Labour start to dupe the public with their lies about full employment, more NHs dentists etc, the rapid-response team should spring into action, get a quote from the appropriate shadow minister and get it out and aired on all peak time news broadcasts".

We have got to put the skids under Brown's economic record and then, secondly, we must bring forward big ideas on a regular basis (not detailed policies) to demonstrate that we are the more fit to govern.

[David Sergeant]

"If the public hear Labour make a false statement and no-one from opposition counters the claim. the public are going to believe it must be true and we won't win their vote."

Posted by: Tony Makara | February 01, 2008 at 17:50

Well said Tony, I have been going on about it for yonks. All this talk of tortoises and hares and demands for attention grabbing policies misses the fact that Labour's myths about the Conservative party are still believed by many people. Enough people believe that the Tories cut public services, messed up the economy for Brown to save and increased unemployment to affect voting intentions and allow Labour to use the claims to get out of awkward spots. You don't need new "attention grabbing" policies, you need to sort out the political landscape so, among other things, Brown is not seen as the best to deal with the mess he has created. This means quick counters to their claims. I do wonder that Tory MPs are so lost in Westminster they do not realise what people think in the world outside.

[Conservative Pragmatist]

I suspect that the polls will not change dramatically after taking the Conway episode into consideration. I predict that there will be 1 or 2 points gap between the Conservatives and Labour either way. I tend to trust the ICM polls more than anything else. They tend to be the most accurate.

[Jennifer Wells]

This is a rogue poll. I don't believe it. Wait on YouGov. Always.

[Scary Biscuis]

I was interviewed for one of these polls once. However, I think they put me down as a dyed-in-the-wool Tory and never bothered ringing me again.

There is reason for Brown recovering slightly: his Commons performances are becomming less cringe-worthy and there hasn't been a major government disaster for ooh at least a few hours.

That said, there are two types of poll movement: (a) people who tell pollsters what they think they want to hear or what they think other people are thinking (i.e. floating voters with no real clue what's going on) and (b) a genuine shift of support, which usually happens slowly as the truth filters through.

For example, the Liberal's sharp dip in support during their previous leadership election (due to Mark Oaten's alleged rent boy antics inter alia) was entirely artificial and their support came back up again as soon as the story disappeared from the headlines. On the other hand, their support has been inexorably drifting away since the last election. This is a much more permanent change of opinion as more and more people slowly realise that the Libs don't represent their own views.

[Jim Mcleod]

and expose Labour for the disgustingly fraudulent copycats with no ideas of their own that they are.

Posted by: Votedave | February 01, 2008 at 18:05

Copy Cat!!
Your having a laugh, just take a look at the last Conservative manifesto which David Cameron was author of.
Then look at the Policies of Labour since 1997.
David Cameron has not only copied most of Labour's manifesto's, there was body language expert say on TV just last Wednesday that he is even copying Tony Blair's mannerisms.
Look at all the policies he was against and is now for.
EG: Minimum Wage!!

[Goldie]

I've said it when the polls were good for 'us' and I'll say it again:

the polls right now are completely uninteresting. There is not an election in sight.

Not worthy of comment.

That being said, overall the polls over the past 2 years suggest that despite an unpopular Labour Party, the Conservatives have not sealed the deal and will struggle to gain a workable majority.

[Tony Makara]

David Belchamber and David Sergeant, currently we have the following:

Labour spokesperson: "Youth unemployment has been eradicated because of the New Deal for the under 25s"

Conservative spokesperson: "......."

Joe Public thinks: "Labour are doing a good job getting the young into work, I'm definitely voting Labour next time"

When it should be:

Labour spokesperson: "Youth unemployment has been eradicated because of the New Deal for the under 25s"

Conservative spokesperson: "Labour should stop lying to the public about youth unemployment being eradicated. The reality is that youth unemployment is up 20% under Labour and rising"

Joe Public thinks: "I didn't realise youth unemployment was so high. Labour have been lying to me. Don't think I'll be voting Labour next time"

Its all about information!

[Comstock]

"Absolute rubbish. You are delusional."

No, Graham Checker, Charles Clarke's words not mine.

"
If Labour win next time, they will be annihilated the time after that."

Recent history says you are right, but I can dream :D

[Votedave]

I am having a laugh, Jim, but only at your comment I'm sorry to say.

Before you announce David Cameron as the author of the 2005 manifesto, do you honestly think he would have written anything Michael Howard would have disapproved of, seeing as he was the leader of the party at the time?
As for changing views and positions, Messrs Brown and Blair were elected in full support of unilateral nuclear disarmament, abolishing the House of Lords, huge tax rises and increased spending. They have no room to talk.
I don't see how you can say David Cameron is supporting Labour policies when he is for abolishing ID cards, an immediate referendum on the EU Treaty, cutting out form-filling in the police, giving control of the NHS to professionals and a new border police force. Oh, sorry, Labour copied a few of those too.

[Simon R]

We are a rather poor opposition aren't we? I've never had much time for people who say there's no opposition in this country -I generally think they're either Labour supporters or they're just not looking for one. I think slightly differently now. If we can't be polling solidly above what is widely acknowledged to be the worst Government in living history, something is very wrong. And I mean, if that personality vacuum that leads the lib dems (I forget his name) is gaining on us, it speaks volumes.

It is a DISGRACE that the Conservatives have never highlighted this Government's dismal economic failures in a coherent and sustained attack before it became obvious that the economy was going belly up. Now, when things are going so wrong, we are no more associated in the public mind with sound public finances and a booming economy than the economic illiterates of the other two parties. It is basic Conservatism 101 that you can't spend like it's going out of fashion and increase red tape on business and expect the economy to thrive. Why didn't we have the nerve to say this at the time, instead of chuntering on about assylum or trying to steal Labours clothes on the NHS?

One more thing; Cameron really has lost it recently. What on earth was he thinking with that ghastly, plodding 'I want to be Vince Cable' Del boy joke in PMQ's? He's obviously surrounded himself with a set of complete idiots if they thought that would fly. It seems like he'd great when backed against the wall, but when he's ahead, he simply can't hack it. The pictures of him and Thatcher on today's papers said couldn't have highlighted the contrast more clearly. A states(wo)man politely tolerating a gurning village idiot. It's too late to get rid of him before the next election, but who knows, maybe after it we'll still be in opposition, so we'll have ample opportunity to do it then.

[Steve Garner]

Maybe Adam Boulton's early candidate for silliest post of the year was not so silly after all!!

[Jim Mcleod]

Votedave | February 01, 2008 at 19:34

I only drop into these blogs every now and again. I find them good in small doses as they are made up of five different types.

1) The wet behind the ear type.

2) Those that spend all day long on the blogs such as Tony Makara and Malcolm Dunn.
Such a shame they do not spend just a quarter of their time which is wasted on here in helping charitable organisations, still not my business just an opinion, never-the-less such sad people.

4) EU Head Bangers.

5) The category you fit into my friend, a sorry mixture of them all.

[Jim Mcleod]

Regret I missed no 3.
Those are the people such as myself who only visit occasionally.
These bogs like bingo and a few other ills can be addictive.

[Tony Makara]

Jim Mcleod, I think internet blogs are good and people who go around posting political messages are doing a form of campaigning. Getting messages onto the websites of newspapers and other media. We do our bit to hold this government to account. The internet is the campaign forum of the future and the work Tim and Sam do on here is revolutionary and carries a lot of weight in traditional media. The problem doesn't lie with me, Malcolm Dunn and others who use the internet to call for a better political world, rather the problem lies with all those people who do nothing and just sit back and take it! The people who frequent forums like Conservative Home care about the world they live in, however most people 'out there' in apathyland only care about themselves. Long live the internet, long live the visionary Conservative Home.

[David Sergeant]

"Then look at the Policies of Labour since 1997.
David Cameron has not only copied most of Labour's manifesto's, there was body language expert say on TV just last Wednesday that he is even copying Tony Blair's mannerisms"

Jim Mcleod, the only things Cameron is copying, by your lights, that Labour introduced, so far, are things he has not said he is abolishing. If you think that's copying go and read a dictionary. Your mannerisms seem to be copying someone desparately looking for any bit of nonsense to fill time with.

[David Sergeant]

Tony said much more sophisticatedly than me.

[Jim Mcleod]

rather the problem lies with all those people who do nothing and just sit back and take it!
Tony Makara | February 01, 2008 at 20:33

What MOST people do about it who care, is to vote at elections.
Not waste their lives on something they cannot alter.
No matter how much you all complain, neither you, David Cameron or anybody else for that matter can do a thing until Gordon Brown says so and is ready to go to the Country.
With all the bad press the Labour Party has had since last October, Cameron tonight finds himself one point behind in the polls.
If you were all succeeding as you seem to think you are this would not be happening. You are living in a fools paradise my friend.
No matter how much you all try to disguise the fact by claiming every adverse (to your way of thinking) poll is wrong and is a rogue. But alter your mind when one is favourable to you, so that one must be correct.
The truth of the matter is Cameron is just not pulling any trees up and he never will.
Most do not take this flip flopper serious.

[Jim Mcleod]

Your mannerisms seem to be copying someone desparately looking for any bit of nonsense to fill time with.

Posted by: David Sergeant | February 01, 2008 at 20:43

Nonsense to fill my time, you got that one correct,that is the reason I read all of this.
It is filled with nonsense.
I have to travel on business and I fill the wasted time by reading blog sites on train journeys that are equally as boring.
London St Pancras is only 10 minutes away thank goodness.
Get a life, I am off to enjoy mine on a much more useful pursuit.!!!

[Tony Makara]

Jim Mcleod, David Cameron and the Conservative party have a vision for the future, quite different from stale Labour and their dead-end politics. The very fact that Labour are copying Conservative ideas just goes to show who is leading the political debate in this country. Labour have been so fixated on the Blair/Brown axis that they have stopped thinking collectively as a party. Look at youth crime, Labour's solution slap an ASBO on the offender. At the same time IDS is out with a team on council estates and trying to get at the causes of anti-social behaviour, all Labour do is hope for a quick-fix, which of course turns into a quick-fail. Look at education, Labour are clearly failing our children and think that problems can be solved by throwing money at the problem, at the same time Michael Gove is coming up with initiatives to get kids reading again. The Labour solution is apathetical lazy legislation to deal with events after the fact, the Conservative solution is action, proactive politics dealing with the root of the problem.

[Simon R]

Jim, you're not actually a Labour supporter are you? *suppresses giggle* I mean you do realise this Government is both serially incompetent and criminally corrupt, and sometimes a tragically hilarious combination of the two? You are aware that their over-regulation and profligate spending have brought a once mighty economy to it's knees, and that their pig-headed adherence to outdated statist bureacracy has seen billions of pounds pissed up the wall whilst public services get shoddier and more disgusting by the day? A Government which has answered the question of long term unemployment by letting the long term unemployed rot and getting immigrants to fill the shortfall? A Government that is still functioning as an opposition 10 years after it gained power, and whose only reason for carrying on is their expense accounts?

Just checking.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Were you born this patronising Jim Mcleod or did you just work at it? Your comment re the Labour 1997 manifesto is not worthy of debate.

[Umbrella man]

You can dismiss the poll but look at the trend reflected in ConHome's poll of polls. Not all is well and that's before anyone has calculated the Conway effect...

[Philip]

This poll may be a blip in Lab's support, but there does seem to be a trend which is seeing our share easing back from being 10-12 points ahead and in 40s etc of a few weeks ago. While there may be time before an election, we do need to ensure continued media coverage to show more of what we stand for, that we are in tune with voters' concerns (e.g. on crime) and continue to expose GB's mishandling of the economy in leaving it weak to withstand harder times. Also of course all that extra taxpayers' money spent on public services that has resulted in hospital A&E and ward closures, and declining education standards in schools, and so on...what a waste.

[Sean Fear]

Malcolm, it's hard to say. Obviously, he's boring, semi-literate, and patronising. Whether that's his nature, or whether he's acquired those attributes through application is anyone's guess.

Umbrella Man and Philip. True up to a point. But remember where we were in September. We'd have been thrilled to think that Con Home's poll of polls puts us where it does.

[Northernhousewife]

'Fear' by name, but not by nature.

[Northernhousewife]

'Worst Government in recent history ...etc.'

Yes, history is the key.

The s*** has not hit the fan yet.

Just because we can see it coming....

But then we have been here before.

[Joe James Broughton]

Phillip's analysis just above is measured and absolutely correct.

We've been relying too much on tabloid style headlines, gaffs, and scandals. (in the government that is).

Excellent policy work has been done, that is wide ranging and focuses on the domestic agenda - let's get it across more - without giving away enough detail to have the best ideas pinched or neutralised. A government in waiting has to do that.

[Tony Makara]

Joe James Broughton, a radical economic strategy needs to be put forward. This should include the following. Does anyone else have any ideas on how we can present a real economic alternative to Labour?

Any new business starting up should be completely exempt from taxation until it has developed a sound infrastructure that will enable it to create jobs.

Business that specifically produces goods for domestic consumption should be given significant tax relief. We need to move away from import dependency as that makes it difficult for us to cut rates when we need to. A cut in rates weakens sterling and pushes the price of imported goods up, creating inflation and therefore wage demands. This will no longer be a problem if we are producing goods and wares for our own consumption.

Foreign workers should be exempt from the minimum wage and paid in their own currency which they would then have to exchange into sterling. This would deter low-wage labour from coming into the country and free up jobs for our own people.

More support for the supply-side in terms of creating infrastructure and freeing up land to create industrial estates. These land sites should be available at the lowest possible cost to encourage investment in industry. We need to recognize that the service-sector cannot produce enough jobs for a population of our size and that we need to re-build Britain's manufacturing base.

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Look, if the Tory Party is a ---- poor opposition, it is because it is too right-wing, not too left-wing.

When will it get through into various thick heads:
- This is not a socialist Government;
- Britain has been dragged too far towards Thatcherism, not too far away from it, under the 1997-2008 Labour Governments;
- a Conservative Party that does not openly disavow a woman who many Britons will celebrate the death of, rather than one which embraces her, cannot get very far.

Do you think Thatcher's death will be celebrated just because many millions of people are terribly evil? Tories didn't do the same over Callaghan; Labourites didn't do the same over Heath.

Wake up, smell the coffee, stop crying wolf about "socialism", and maybe you'd realise why the Tories manage to fall behind Labour in the polls two years into their third Parliament. While you wait, there's a very funny cartoon out there by Riddell, taking the mick out of the new logo, which explains it all (I can't find the thing at the moment).

[Tony Makara]

Margaret on the Guillotine, your post is in bad taste. You are only making yourself look ridiculous. Please don't spoil this website with such vindictive words.

[TrevorH]

"It is a DISGRACE that the Conservatives have never highlighted this Government's dismal economic failures in a coherent and sustained attack"

oh... DO SHUT UP.

I am getting fed up of this.
It was a Conservative who coined the phrase 'stealth tax'.

Just because bozos like you do not read or hear of serious coherent opposition does not mean that it does not take place.

It means that the mainstream media do not report it - they are more concerned with the state of mind of Britany Spears, with Posh's latest tatoo.

And of course we have the BBC. How thick do you have to be in order to miss just how thick journalists are?

The complete dumb assed crass stupidity and naivety of people who criticise the alleged lack of opposition beggars belief. Go on, keep making Gordons day.

[TrevorH]

Look ...

Let me make my point clear to all you self important bloggers out there (and I am a mere reader).

I saw thw great Guido on Newsnight and he hardly got a word in. Opposition? - he was ruddy useless. THATS how hard it is to make an imprsssion in the mainstream, and lets be clear to all you narcissists out there, its the mainstream who are actually the majority.

Get real get a life and stop being so damnably purile.

[Dale]

Margaret on the Guillotine,

I think you must have been off sick when margaret thatcher won three landlide election and then sick again when she was voted britains greatest post war prime minister last year and even received praise from cesar (tony benn).

[Treacle]

Margaret on the Guillotine

Are you having one of your little turns? You must take the pills regularly dear, otherwise these things will happen.

[Yet Another Anon]

Charles Clarke says if Labour can win again, this could be the start of a 'progressive century' in the model of Sweden
I don't think so, I don't think David Cameron will ever be PM, I think his successor will sometime between 2019 and 2024, and I think that large elements of Labour will start to revolt once Gordon Brown has gone in 2017 convinced that Labour would get far higher votes if it switched to a radical Bennite agenda.

The Conservative Party under David Cameron's successor will withdraw the UK from the EU, restore Capital Punishment, slash the Welfare State, radically cut public spending while abandoning Liberalism and refusing to tolerate excuses from yobs and terrorists hugely increasing police and defence spending OR if they don't someone else will - society is breaking down and the public will demand radical action to deal with it, whatever is neccessary, other possibilities are that Labour in government will start to abandon it's roots and become a Popular Peoples Party or that a party such as UKIP or the Popular Alliance will come to power and impliment such policies - Liberal Parties will be in opposition for anything up to a century.

[Comstock]

To be fair I think when Charles said 'progressive century' he meant one dominated by social-democratic ideas, rather than Labour being in power for the whole 100 years.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Beneath contempt Margaret on the Guillotine, beneath contempt. As always posts like that always seem to come from people far too cowardly to reveal their true identities.

[passing leftie]

This poll is certainly right, and all the other ones are wrong, and I'm not biased!

[Tony Makara]

Yet Another Anon, interesting analysis. I certainly believe that if Britain wants to survive as a major power it will have to do some radical thinking about its economic policies, which I would describe as 'passive' and make us an anvil rather than a hammer. A future Conservative government should make sure that we producing and supplying for our domestic market, our entrepreneurs should be encouraged to operate aggressively, knocking out foreign competitors and dominating foreign markets. On capital punishment the matter should go to the British people, who I'm confident would overwhelmingly vote in favour, EU membership, that too should go to the people, let them decide if they think the EU is worth the effort.

Your comments on Labour are interesting because once the Labour party realises that the Blarite/Brownite approach doesn't work and after it is rejected by the electorate there is only one way Labour can go, as you say leftward. I love talking to Labour supporters to assess how they feel about the government and they all long for a left-wing agenda. None of them really believe in New Labour, never did, but accept it was a means to an end.

[Traditional Tory]

Beneath contempt Margaret on the Guillotine, beneath contempt

Not often that I agree with Mr Dunn but of course he is right. Without Thatcher this country would now be a total basket case. MOTG is a vicious moron.

The ID chosen by 'Margaret on the Guillotine' always puzzled me. This unsavoury person is now openly posting as a hate-filled far leftist. I seem to recall, howevr, that he/she was previously posing as a Cameron supporter.

[Simon R]

Trevor H, I happen to be a bozo who is a Conservative Party supporter and a reader of broadsheets and politics websites. If *I* don't read or hear about a coherent and sustained line of attack from the Tories on the Government's record on the economy, then how the HELL do you expect those 'bozos' with little interest in politics and still less in the Conservative Party, (ie. most voters) to read or hear of one? There's very little point in opposition if no-one hears about it is there? It's not really called opposition then is it -it's more of an after dinner grumble.

Labeling the majority of the media as being either aggressively liberal or engrossed in tittle tattle is a lame excuse. Large sections of the print media are very receptive to our cause, if not always our party. There are ways of getting the message out there. But the message has never been clear or consistent enough.

The message of the Tories being the party of boom and bust has been allowed to go almost completely unchallenged, and credit for the golden economic legacy given to Labour is never ascribed to our parties' astute stewardship of the economy. High profile factories have closed and skilled jobs been lost with barely a whimper from us. There was not a single day of the 2004 General Election campaign solely dedicated to attacking this Government's record on the economy; even in the wake of the Longbridge closure. It may have had no effect on that election, but at least it would be out there on record and in the public domain. Spending. Are we spending more than Labour, spending less than Labour, matching Labour? Do we even know? We have allowed Labour to make a joke of our spending plans, even when they themselves were getting further and further into debt. When have we attacked their overspending? Quite simply we haven't had the balls. Gordon Brown was allowed to get away with his ridiculous posturing as the iron chancellor even as he devoured and belched out the public's money like it was going out of fashion. We were too busy screaming to an indifferent public what a nasty man Tony Blair was. How surprising is it that when we allowed Brown, for the ten years of his reckless chancellorship, to appear as the solid economic competence behind Blair's premiership, that this image of him in the public eye has not evaporated overnight?

See what I mean? Individual Conservative politicians may have gone on TV to have a moan when evidence of Labour's economic incompetence gradually came to light, but that is no substitute for a sustained and clear party line of attack, one that we owed the country, and that we have severely let them down by failing to provide.

[Tony Makara]

"Gordon Brown was allowed to get away with his ridiculous posturing as the iron chancellor"

Simon R, yes, I've always been puzzled as to why the plastic chancellor has got away with it for so long. Doesn't the Conservative party have one economic heavyweight who can expose Brown in a layman's English that the ordinary voter can understand? This man created artificial growth by encouraging spending bought by credit, now the credit has dried up the spending had dried up. Inflation has been hidden by the artificially overvalued pound and by fiddling the way inflation is measured. No new jobs outside the public sector are being created and any supposed 'fall' in unemployment is just a result of people on the compulsory New Deal 'work experience' programmes receiving their P45s, not having to sign on, although still receiving benefits. The public is being fed one giant fraud. Yet the Conservative party is silent on the issue. Why?

[Sean Fear]

Margaret on the Guillotine is a truly horrible person. Obviously a troll, and probably some Labour MP's spotty research assistant.

I really don't see what she adds to this site.

[Jim Mcleod]

Margaret on the Guillotine is a truly horrible person. Obviously a troll, and probably some Labour MP's spotty research assistant.

I really don't see what she adds to this site.

Posted by: Sean Fear | February 02, 2008 at 19:

No a horrible person is someone like you who would make such a response.
I was once "LED" to believe that you were a Solicitor, I hope I am wrong about that.
I also was "LED"to believe that you are or were a Conservative Party Chairman, I also hope I am wrong about that.
As an educated person you behave like a child.
Just read your contributions to this blog and ask yourself if this a rational response or reaction from a grown man.
If so then the "Nasty Party" is well and truly still alive and kicking.
I would hope if you are a Solicitor your clients are made aware of your nasty, childish disposition and if a Conservative Pary Chairman, the people of the town where you belong to the Conservative Association are given an insight into your spiteful,school playground behaviour.
Grow up man for goodness sake and if you cannot behave like an adult, try and act like one.

[Jim Mcleod]

Beneath contempt Margaret on the Guillotine, beneath contempt

Not often that I agree with Mr Dunn but of course he is right. Without Thatcher this country would now be a total basket case. Traditional Tory | February 02, 2008 at 16:22

I agree with you about Baroness Thatcher.T.T.
I thought you at least would have rose above the name calling.
For the first time ever you disappoint me.
People have a right to an opinion without others stooping to insults.
The answer is to rise above it not reduce yourself to the same level.
Opinion is one thing insult is quite another.
There are enough childish immature people on this site without you joining them.
I always gave you credit for being far more astute.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Jim, I'm sure I speak for Sean as well when I say how grateful we are for your brilliantly erudite posts on this blog. You must have spent hours composing them. Thank you so much!

[Sean Fear]

Jim Mcleod, you're the one who resorted to insults against other posters here. MOTG then posted some foul comments about Margaret Thatcher. You are both equally disgusting - and you really shouldn't dish it out unless you're prepared to take it in return.

[Ash Faulkner]

Jim Mcleod, I thought you went "off to enjoy...a much more useful pursuit"?

This has been an odd few weeks. Nobody has controlled the agenda; Labour lost it via Hain, we've lost it via Conway, the Lib Dems never had it. We've really got to move on from the Conway stuff immediately and get back into the issues, so I welcome these new policy announcements. I'm not too sure about this midwife thing, but the fact that we're talking again is good.

Tony's right, we need to be responding to everything Labour says so the public always get two sides of the issue. Relevance is key!

[Jim Mcleod]

Malcolm Dunn | February 03, 2008 at 17:02 ...&
Sean Fear | February 03, 2008 at 17:47

Grow up both of you,for goodness sake and if you cannot behave like adults, try and mimic them.
You both behave more like spoiled petulant children than grown men.
How can you expect anybody to take the likes of you both serious or the Conservative Party for that matter, when you both behave in such a manner and set a disgusting example of Conservatism at it's worst.
Jut read your own contributions to this blog and ask if there is anything in them either of you would feel proud about.
I personally would be ashamed to attach my name to them..
How can you both set an example to the young, then behave like you both do?
It is like DC. lecturing the young Lager Louts in Warrington about their disgusting behaviour, whilst conveniently forgetting about his Bullingdon Boy days and "Daddies money" getting them out of the fracas.
The only difference between the two is MONEY!!!

[Northernhousewife]

New Populus poll from LAB FAVOURITE POLSTER!

The Times

Tories 40[+3]
Lab 31[-2]
LD 17 [-2]

Yes it is true

See PBetting
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT
Noone but us will want to.

Good man Dave.

[Northernhousewife]

Someone..
Wake up and take notice.
Have noone to celebrate with [live with non-politcals - ashamed to say]

[Malcolm Dunn]

Great news 'Northernhousewife', sorry I was working late or I would have celebrated with you!
PS Another fantastic post Jim.You really are wonderful!