Tories 10% ahead but Brown still favoured as PM

An Ipsos Mori survey for The Sun gives the Tories a 10% lead.  The Conservatives are steady on 42% and Labour is down 3% to 32%.

Other findings show that the Tory leader still has work to do.  Brown beats Cameron by 45% to 27% when it comes to who would be best in a crisis.  The existing PM also has a 37% to 33% lead over the man who wants to be PM when Mori's sample was asked who would be "most capable Prime Minister" overall.  Cameron has a 37% to 34% advantage when it comes to "best able to deal with 21st century problems".  This excellent video from last year's Party Conference successfully painted Mr Brown as a man of the past.

And what are we to make of The Sun's treatment of its poll?  "Brown is still the top man (just)," the newspaper headlines.  The Sun Says column offers us more about the thinking at Wapping:

"The Prime Minister’s New Year relaunch HAS stabilised his freefalling popularity. Voters give him the edge again as a better PM than the Tory leader... But it’s not all coming up red roses.  The Tories are ahead overall by ten points, double their lead two months ago... The wildly fluctuating results of recent polls prove one thing, though: Britain, like America, is still entirely unsure which way to jump."

We think their poll says that Labour is on course to lose its majority but the Tories still have a lot of work to do if we are to win a parliamentary majority.  Most of all, we must find more reasons to enthuse voters in 2008.  We need more pledges like last year's inheritance tax cut.

Comments

[Alan S]

"Most of all, we must find more reasons to enthuse voters in 2008."

I completely agree with that.
I meet so many people fed up with Labour but no enthusiasm for us.

[Ted]

The qualitative questions were from the whole sample so include the views of those uninterested/unlikely to vote whereas the 10% lead is from those certain to vote. The results are not comparable - the views of people who don't vote, while they may be of interest, only matter in the end if they get the energy to go to a polling booth.

The Sun is still sitting on the fence, the polls are really not that volatile (that was mid September to mid November). Labour is mostly in the 32%-35% range, Conservatives 40%-42%, Lib Dems 14%-18%. If Gordon Brown has stemmed the fall he's done so at a low point. Mr Pascoe-Watson continues to have a pro-Brown bias, looking for green shoots of recovery.

Agree though that we do need to do more - but Populus had a worrying finding on Tuesday which was that a number of the Lib Dem switchers to Tories had gone back. Cameron's achievement was to recover a number of the voters we lost to the Lib Dems - we must be careful we enthuse such voters to come home to the Tories not just enthuse our 2005 supporters.

[Tony Makara]

A lot of Brown's support will waver as people see that he cannot halt any economic downturn without producing more inflation. He really has no way out of it. This is a big test for Brown, he has cultivated an image for himself as an economic guru, now lets see what he will do. One thing he probably might consider is cutting rates combined with a prices-and-incomes policy. However Brown would be foolish to overlook the effects of that on the high street shopper as he/she has to contend with the rising cost of food imports caused by a weakened currency.

[Kevin Davis]

Where's the Lib Dem bounce?

[Jim Carr]

If Cameron ditched the green baloney, and robustly attacked the other parties for peddling it (and God knows there is ample opportunity for both actions), he might get somewhere in the popularity stakes.

[Betty]

We must do something about these "Fighting Funds". Why do Labour have to have these funds to arrive at a job in their own party?
Even when the position is unopposed, or in the latest case, filled.

Surely we must convince the public that Conservatives do not subscribe to such nonsense.

[Votedave]

Does anyone realise 42% is the best rating MORI has given us since June 1992? Only once since the 1980s has it given us a 10% lead (in May 2006 after the local elections).
As for personal ratings, it is worth
remembering Callaghan regularly outpolled Thatcher in the late 1970s - little good that did him. Besides, the latest Populus poll shows Cameron overtaking Brown despite a falling Tory lead.
This is a very encouraging result I say - and surprisingly bad for Nick Clegg.
I don't suggest we should sit back and relax but aren't we being a little too negative?

[Votedave]

I should have acknowledged that we were also on 42% last month - but still, it's better than any poll of the preceding 15 years.

[HF]

The Sun's Gordon Pascoe-Brown glosses over a bad poll for Labour using figures from people unlikely to vote. Why not include the views of 10 yr olds or the French?

Why be surprised about this Labour luvvvie spinning on behalf of his fellow scotsman?

The truth is that this is the largest poll lead ever with Mori since Brown became PM.

Pascoe-Brown overlooks that fact. He is either stupid or biased.

[Sally Roberts]

"a number of the Lib Dem switchers to Tories had gone back."

Doesn't surprise me, Ted! After all don't forget the Lib Dems have a new leader and I think this Poll reflects a Clegg "bounce". It is not so long ago that we had two defections in the North West and I am sure this reflects a certain degree of disillusionment with the Lib Dems and an acknowledgement that they are a "busted flush"! Give it time.

[Joe James Broughton]

It could be the slightly stronger LD figures after their low in October 2007 are a Cable effect.

To be honest, I doubt Clegg - chosen just before Xmas will have registered much one way or the other yet.

I suspect Clegg's impact will prove to be minimal - unless Tories keep wetting themselves and talking the LDs up (like a few people who come on this site (those who ironically like lecturing us all about what's a real Conservative).

The LDs problem is not Ming or who their leader is - it's a squeeze, and provided the Tories look like the alternative government in waiting, the LDs will continue to do badly.

[Steve]

Are we supposed to believe that any right minded English person prefers that vile anti-English communist Jock as "leader?"

[Marty]

If thats true then its fortunate for English people, because they never elected him and cant vote him out anyway!

[Edison Smith]

Why's everyone getting upset?

A 42% top line figure with a 10% lead is excellent. So Cameron is still behind Brown when it comes to the question of 'most capable PM', this can be worked on and is probably due to DC being less in the media over the Christmas period and after - even his benefits announcements were overshadowed.

I actually think this is all very encouraging.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

It is quite nice to be 10% ahead of Labour. Would it have given us a workable majority?

[Tony Makara]

"his benefits announcements were overshadowed"

Edison Smith, thats probably for the best. Every single person I've talked to has said those welfare reforms will not create jobs. So the welfare reforms aren't looking much different from those of Labour. I was given a boost by George Osbourn's speech though, very positive and outlining a very different economic approach to that of Labour. The economy is going to decide the next election, thats a certainty.

[Cllr John M Ward (Medway)]

In context:

This is very good news, especially once the business of "selective turnout filtering" has been grasped (and we need to await the release of the full data by the polling outfit on their website, a few days hence), but it is only one poll. It is thus useful in itself, but limited.

Once the Hain and other funding sleaze issues have had some more time to air, there should be a general trend towards the Conservatives -- provided we do keep up the pressure, continue to put sensible policies into the public awareness, and keep our own noses clean.

This poll is the start: from now on it is up to all of us (and especially the Shadow Cabinet) to ensure that this result is reflected in other organisations' polls, and hopefully improved over the next several weeks/few months.

It can and should be done.

[Edison Smith]

It is quite nice to be 10% ahead of Labour. Would it have given us a workable majority?

According to UK Polling Report, on a uniform swing:

Cons 342
Labour 255
Lib Dems 24

[TimberWolf]

Local election results 10th Jan

NW Leicester,Ibstock & Heather. Lab hold one

ThatchamTC,Thatcham Central. Lib Dems hold two

ThatchamTC,Thatcham North. Lib Dems gain one from Conservatives

KingsLangleyPC,South. Ind gain one from Conservatives

[Patsy Sergeant]

Tony Makara @ 10.56am - if there continues to be a downturn in the economy, it is not just the shopper being affected by rising food prices, other shops on the high street are reporting a drop in sales etc:, and if that continues, there will start to be job losses, and that is when Mr. Brown will start to feel the cold draft of unpopularity!