ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Reclaiming the streets

David Cameron is in Bolton and Salford today, accompanied by David Davis. Cameron will make a speech on crime in an hour.

Here is what he will say: Download Cameron crime speech.pdf. Our summary will follow shortly is below:

Violent society: "I want to speak about the senseless, barbaric and seemingly remorseless prevalence of violence in our country. A violence that takes our families, torments them with suffering and tears them apart. A violence that takes our communities, rips out their soul and paralyses them with fear. And a violence that takes our claim to civilisation - our common humanity, the sanctity of life, and the idea that everyone has the right to live free from fear – and betrays it."

Atomised society: "We’re collapsing into an atomised society, stripped of the local bonds of association which help tie us together. These include community groups, faith organisations and civic representation... Too often we seem to retreat from one another, to the safe and reassuring anchor of our homes... Why? Because we’ve created a culture where it’s somehow wrong for an adult to talk to a child causing a nuisance."

The failed Respect Agenda: "In some areas, three quarters of ASBOs have been breached. Key pledges on Police Community Support Officers have not been met. And what were once deemed ‘essential’ projects, such as the 101 non-emergency number, have been scrapped... [Brown’s] actually now choosing to ignore the problem of our violent society completely. He talks endlessly about the long-term challenges facing Britain – but he never mentions crime as one of them."

Social covenant: "It’s time for a new approach. One based on a new optimism: where we say we can take back our streets and we can build a better society. And one based on a new agreement– what I have called a Social Covenant..a national recognition that it’s not just up to the Government to take responsibility for the state of our nation, it’s up to all of us."

Should MPs vote for above-inflation pay increases?

This morning's FT reports that Gordon Brown and David Cameron are both urging their MPs to reject above-inflation pay increases for themselves.  If previous research is to be believed then Conservative MPs are the least likely to be accommodating.

There seem to be a number of issues here (in no particular order):

• The recommendation of higher pay comes from an independent review body.  Shouldn't that body's advice be accepted?
• If MPs vote for above-inflation pay increases, where does that leave the Government's attempts to restrict wider public sector pay settlements?
• Over the years MPs' pay has fallen behind the pay of public sector employees that they were once ranked alongside.
• MPs' pensions are widely regarded as amongst the best in the world.
• There is no shortage of people wanting to be MPs but are we attracting MPs of sufficient quality?
• Only one-third of ex-MPs are able to secure higher salaries for themselves.
• Tory MPs, in particular, have many outside paid interests.  Would these interests continue if pay was increased significantly or would they continue on the same scale?
• Should a new pay settlement be part of a wider reconsideration of MPs' allowances?
• Should MPs be allowed to employ members of their families?
• Should MPs be voting on their own pay at all?

It's time for 'fairer seats'

Just before Christmas ConservativeHome raised the issue of "unfair seats".  On Monday's Platform Conor Burns explained the problem in much more detail:

"If Labour and the Conservatives had the same vote share [at the 2005 General Election] Labour would still have won 111 more seats. If the Conservatives had the same lead over Labour as Labour did over the Conservatives, Labour would still have had 57 more seats. Only a Conservative lead of 6.4% would have resulted in equality of seats and the Conservatives would have required a lead of 11.8% before gaining an overall majority."

Read Conor's full arguments here.

There are many ways of addressing the problem of unfair seats.  Options include more regular boundary commission reviews.  A greater willingness to allow boundaries of Westminster seats to cross natural or local authority boundaries.  Equalisation of the size of Welsh, Scottish and English seats.  During the course of 2008 we'll be examining all of the options and pressing the Conservative Party to then make a manifesto commitment to address this issue.  I hope ConservativeHome readers like Tim Roll-Pickering, who has consistently made intelligent comments on this issue, will help us achieve a good final proposal. 

Our bottom line is that the electoral system needs to be fairer and it needs to be reformed so that the election of a majority Conservative Government isn't such an uphill struggle.

Oliver Heald MP, who used to have responsibility for constitutional affairs in the shadow cabinet, believes in full equalisation of seats:

"It’s time we had fair votes in the UK - and no – I don’t mean Proportional Representation!! Votes in different parts of the UK have different values due to the wide variations in the size of constituencies. This strikes at the heart of the democratic principle of equal voting rights for citizens. We should end the disparities by introducing a fixed electoral quota – the electorate divided by the number of seats – with only a small margin to avoid splitting council wards.  Currently the Boundary Commission chooses not to cross county boundaries and uses old electoral data in making its final recommendations. This creates an urban bias in the system and fails to take adequate account of net migration from the cities. We should change the Regulations to put maintaining an equal quota as the rule with priority over other considerations."

The current shadow cabinet minister with responsibility for this issue, Nick Herbert, Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, doesn't go as far but in a statement issued to ConservativeHome opens the door to a manifesto promise:

"Ideally electoral boundaries would stay as closely linked to established county or district borders as possible, but population growth often makes this impossible.  On balance, it's more important that MPs represent roughly the same size of population than we remain wedded to old boundaries that allow population disparities to grow widely.  I think boundary reviews should be conducted more frequently to take account of population changes, and they should use more up-to-date data."

Mr Herbert describes Labour's inaction on "fair seats" as "yet another example of Labour's willingness to allow distortion of the electoral system for their partisan ends."

Both Oliver and Nick issued much fuller statements and you can read a pdf of them here.

This is the first of ten items on ConservativeHome's 'Agenda 2008'.  All agenda items reflect the opinions of the ConservativeHome Members' Panel.  in the end-December poll 84% agreed that "parliamentary constituencies for the House of Commons should roughly be of the same population size."  Other findings of that survey will be released soon.

Obamacons

Tories that support Obama.  What should they be called?  Obamacons?

There are plenty of them about...

• An aide to George Osborne was "bursting out of their skin in excitement" after attending an Obama event according to a well-placed source.
• For Nick Bourne, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, "The most hopeful event of the start of 2008 [was] Barack Obama’s win in the Iowa caucuses."
• Wirral West candidate Esther McVey told the readers of her blog that Barack Obama had "something unique and important to offer to the world" she hoped "he gets the chance to deliver it".
• Platform10 have already endorsed Barack Obama - identifying his "relentless focus on hope, optimism and change".
• Most surprising of all was Dan Hannan's words in today's Telegraph: "Two sets of people stand to lose from an Obama presidency: white supremacists, and Al Sharpton-types, whose narrative of race relations in America would be falsified. Everyone else, white and black, would be wrapped in a warm duvet of national solidarity."

David Cameron was praising the "compelling" Illinois Senator yesterday (see Ben Brogan).

Dan Hannan, in particular, has clearly come under the spell of what Melanie Phillips called Princess Obama:

"Obama appears to be on the wrong side of just about every important issue going; indeed, were he to be elected president he would be a danger to the free world. But hey – the guy makes people feel good about themselves; he stands for hope, love, reconciliation, youthfulness and fairies at the bottom of the garden."

Bill Clinton - watch this video - talked of the 'Obama fairy tale'.

ConservativeHome is glad Obama got beaten yesterday and not just because it's good to see the pundits brought down to earth.  It's very unclear if he's up to the job.  On BritainAndAmerica yesterday Joe Loconte questioned his wisdom.  Mark Steyn has ridiculed his talk of change.  Does any of it amount to anything bankable?

Conservatives are practical people and should be weary of anyone so inexperienced.  Senator Obama may yet win the nomination - although noone should bet much against Hillary - but ConservativeHome is sticking with the Republicans for two main reasons:

(1) Experience: All of the top-tier GOP candidates have done something real.  McCain is a war hero.  Giuliani fixed New York.  Romney ran an Olympics and a state.  Huckabee was Governor of Arkansas for 11 years.
(2) Beliefs: Core Republican instincts are closer to those of most Conservatives (although not every reader agrees).  On balance the Republican belief in smaller government, lower taxes, welfare reform, investment in defence and scepticism of the UN all make the Republicans a better choice.

Live blog of PMQs from noon: Nick Clegg's first outing

CONSERVATIVEHOME VERDICT: "Lots of Punch and Judy. No clear winner although Gordon Brown does appear to be leaving the door open to not progressing from voluntary ID cards to compulsory ID cards.  Nick Clegg gave a reasonable performance but he had nothing to rival David Cameron's debut performance line to Tony Blair: 'You were the future once'."

For those interested there's a Facebook group for PMQs enthusiasts.

Highlights, not verbatim:

12.13pm: Nick Clegg raises the issue of expensive fuel bills.  Brown replies by welcoming the new LibDem leader to his position and promises him an open door for discussions of issues of mutual interest.  Nick Clegg comes back by urging the Prime Minister to urge reform of the procedures by which the poorest families, on prepaid meters, pay the most for their energy.

12.12pm: All his lines are pre-rehearsed in front of the mirror, Brown replies - to much Labour laughter.  The Leader of the Opposition isn't facing up to Britain's long-term challenges.

12.11pm: Cameron ends by saying that this is a dithering Government that doesn't know what to do about ID cards, about CGT or about Mervyn King.

12.10pm: The Governor's appointment will be confirmed in the usual way, the Prime Minister replies.

12.07pm: Cameron changes line to capital gain tax.  CGT is lower overall since Labour came to power, replies Brown.  Business, Cameron says, needs to know what the Government's plans are on CGT and Darling has failed to deliver a promise to update the House of Commons before Christmas.  Will Mervyn King be given a new term as Bank Governor, Cameron asks.

12.04pm: Yes, says Gordon Brown, if the Commons votes for it and notes that Pauline Neville-Jones has supported ID cards in the past.  Cameron quotes back a previous statement from Alistair Darling that opposed ID cards.  Brown says that the ID card will only be voluntary for UK citizens until Parliament decides whether or not to proceed with compulsory ID cards.

12.03pm: Cameron welcomes Clegg to his position and says that he is relieved that his party no longer has the habit of changing its leader quite so often.  He then asks Gordon Brown if the Government still intends to introduce compulsory ID cards.

Noon: Nick Clegg not sitting at the end of the row but two LibDem MPs in.

We'll make British poverty history, say Cameron and Grayling

We won't say much more about the Tory welfare reform package as here on incapacity benefit and here on the Jobseekers' Allowance we have already said quite a bit but a few headlines from this morning's Brixton press conference...

David Cameron said that welfare reform was not complicated.  It was essentially about the idea that people who could work, should work and  that those who couldn't deserve society's full support.

The Tory leader said that there were plenty of jobs available in Britain.  He pointed to vacancy rates and the inflow of foreign labour as proof of his statement.

Because the Tory approach was based on successful models from around the world this was why, he said, that it was "change you could believe in" - quoting Barack Obama.

Mr Cameron concluded his remarks by inviting Gordon Brown to take up the Tory proposals and he promised to work with the Prime Minister in implementing them should he choose to do so.

Chris Grayling then highlighted the four reasons why the Tory programme was much superior to Labour's existing approach:

1. SCALE: All 2.6 million incapacity benefit claimants would be assessed, for example, whereas Labour was only assessing new claimants.
2. SANCTIONS: There would be loss of benefits for repeatedly declining job opportunities or for a two year period of worklessness.
3. MANDATORY WORK ELEMENT: For all JSA claimants who had been claiming for two years.
4. FINANCIAL CHANGES: Savings from reduced benefit claims would immediately be channeled into funding successful back-to-work programmes.  The private and voluntary sector operators of back to work schemes would only be paid in installments and those installments would be subject to the previously unemployed remaining in work.

During questions ConservativeHome raised the issue highlighted by Dr Rachel Joyce in one of the weekend threads.  Rachel had written:

"As regards incapacity benefit - the regular medical checks need to be performed by independent doctors. GPs will tell you that they find it very difficult to say no to patients when they ask for sick notes - because of their doctor-patient relationship."

Chris Grayling confirmed that the medical examination would be independent although a GP's opinion would be available to the assessor.

Interestingly the questions from the press were largely of the 'is this tough enough?' variety.  Perhaps the mood has shifted in Britain and there is a real appetite for reform.

Before the press conference David Cameron spoke to participants in GAIN, a Tomorrow's People project that you can read about here.  In the New Year's Honours Debbie Scott of Tomorrow's People received an OBE.  Few people are more deserving of an honour.

Tories to impose two year limit on Jobseekers' Allowance and then it's workfare

Over the last few days Chris Grayling and David Cameron have been unveiling tough-love policies on welfare.  We've already had announcements to reduce the number of incapacity benefit claimants by introducing compulsory medical testing and also a requirement for single parents to undertake part-time work once their youngest child reaches school age.

Yesterday we learnt that the party will introduce a 'three-strikes-and-you're-out' policy on job offers for unemployed people.  The FT reported:

"Mr Grayling proposes that a claimant would lose one month’s out-of-work benefits for turning down a reasonable job offer and three months’ for turning down a second offer.  “If they refuse a third reasonable offer, they will be excluded from receiving further out-of-work benefits for a period of up to three years,” he said."

This morning, at an event in Brixton, the Conservative leader will announce the most radical step yet.  In an initiative based on the welfare model pioneered by US Republicans - and signed into law by Bill Clinton - the Conservatives will introduce a two-year maximum limit on being able to apply for Jobseekers' Allowance.

Significantly the two-year limit will be a cumulative one.  A claimant won't have to have been claiming JSA for two consecutive years but will find that a pattern of sporadic claiming will add up to a ban on further claims.  This part of the Tory package is designed to capture those people who seek to work the system by taking jobs for short periods but then quickly resign from them.  The Telegraph reports that more than a quarter of those who go into work from JSA are back claiming within 13 weeks.  Two-thirds of all annual JSA applications are repeat applications.

Once the two-year limit has been reached claimants will be required to undertake community work programmes such as removing graffiti or cleaning parks.

Speaking to the Daily Mail Chris Grayling, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions said:

"Staying at home will no longer be an option.  We have an absurd situation under Gordon Brown where millions of people are coming here to work while millions of Britons are allowed to remain on benefits.  We now know that four out of every five jobs created under Labour have gone to foreign workers. That's a culture that has got to change."

ConservativeHome will be at this morning's launch press conference and will report more afterwards.

Labour will attempt to attack the Tories on these policies but the man who would be expected to front those attacks - Peter Hain - may be a little distracted this morning.  The Guardian reports that the former deputy Labour leadership candidate failed to declare tens of thousands of pounds he received for his campaign.  Guido has more.

First poll of 2008

The headline figures in tomorrow's Populus poll for The Times point to a narrower Tory lead but the better news is the continuing slide of the 'Brown brand':

"A Populus poll for The Times, the first of the new year, shows that David Cameron has overtaken Mr Brown in being seen to have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister after a big recent shift.  Six months ago, just after becoming Prime Minister, Mr Brown was ahead of Mr Cameron by 56 to 32 per cent on this measure. Now, the Conservative leader is ahead by 44 to 40 per cent. Much of the decline has happened in the past two months.  There have been similarly large shifts against Mr Brown on other measures of leader image, cutting his previously large lead on being strong from 32 to six points, while Mr Cameron has moved even further into the lead on charisma and likeability."

What next for ConservativeHome?

Another blog has started today.  The Times' Sam Coates - not to be confused with our own Sam Coates (!) - has begun a Red Box blog.  Sam blogged throughout the Party Conference season last year and good stuff it was, too.  Over the last year, as Peter Franklin noted, there has been an explosion of mainstream blogging.  The Spectator's Coffee House quickly became the most successful mainstream media blog although The Telegraph's Three Line Whip looks set to be at least as essential.  Ben Brogan - back blogging today - remains ConservativeHome's favourite for insidery news.

With all of this extra blogging it's difficult to keep up.  The centre column - 'Latest news and blogs' - on ConservativeHome's homepage provides a rolling links service to the best of all this blogging.  One year ago the ToryDiary section of this site was the most popular.  Now the homepage is visited twice as often - largely because many are using it as a gateway site.

Please use the thread below to offer any thoughts on how you'd like to see ConservativeHome evolve this year.  Our plan is to campaign on ten major themes - the first of which we'll launch tomorrow.  Later this week we'll also be replacing our Columnists page with something we have high hopes for...

Tory MP Ian Taylor attacks Greenpeace's "hypocrisy" in opposing nuclear energy

Tory MP Ian Taylor, Chairman of the Conservative Party's Science and Technology taskforce, has issued a statement today urging Britain to embrace nuclear power:

"Unless the Government moves quickly to boost the nuclear power station rebuilding programme, there is no hope in meeting the non-fossil fuel targets. Wind and wave power alone will not suffice.  Greenpeace shows sheer hypocrisy in pressing its objections. Members should resign in protest if they are seriously 'green'."

In the video below Mr Taylor describes the belief that a little more wind and wave power will deliver energy security as "emotionally confused".  Only nuclear power, he says, will help Britain to substantially reduce its dependence on oil from the Middle East and gas from Russia.

The initial Cameron position on nuclear power was to regard it as a "last resort" but that language is no longer being used.  The Tories now believe that as long as there is a fair and equitable financial regime, nuclear power should be an important part of Britain's future energy mix.  The Liberal Democrats remain firmly opposed to any more nuclear power plants.  12% of Tory members agreed with the LibDems' opposition to nuclear power.  85% disagreed with it.

Early last month David Cameron gave a speech to Greenpeace, promising a decentralised energy revolution where people are paid for the energy they produce.

Related link: Of kettles and car engines - why nuclear power is not the solution to energy security by Peter Franklin

Ambushed for YouTube

Radio 4's World This Weekend briefly mentioned this video.  Mitt Romney is left looking evasive and perhaps even rude after being asked if he'll arrest a wheelchair-bound man for using 'medical marijuana'.  Although the issue may be real it was clearly a set-up.  At the end of the interview the man videoing the encounter pursues the wheelchair guy's line of questioning.  We can only hope David Cameron is prepared for similar ambushes.  We guess someone, somewhere is planning something for Mr Brown.  This is the era we now live in.

Cameron promises News of the World readers that he'll take 200,000 people off incapacity benefit

In an article for today's News of the World David Cameron promises to end the "something-for-nothing culture" that Labour has failed to tackle during its ten years in power.

The Tory leader says that he is particularly concerned that one-in-five of the 2.6m incapacity benefit (IB) claimants are under 35:

"I don't believe that there are nearly half a million young people in Britain with a disability which prevents them from doing any work at all."

The promise to "axe" 200,000 claimants doesn't appear in David Cameron's article but in a quotation from Tory Welfare spokesman Chris Grayling.  Mr Grayling tells the NotW:

"We know there are at least 200,000 people who should be moved straightaway from incapacity benefit and into jobs.  Over time there are another million who want jobs who, with help and retraining, will be able to find permanent work."

Given that there are 2.64 million people claiming IB at an annual cost of £12.65bn, the savings to the taxpayer would be about £1bn if 200,000 people were successfully removed from the system.  For the other million who need "help and retraining" the savings are more difficult to predict as the costs of easing them back into work will be considerable.

Writing for The Sunday Telegraph, Chris Grayling promises that every person currently on incapacity benefit will be interviewed and examined under a Tory government:

"The majority of people signed on to [incapacity] benefit by filling in a form and sending in a note from their doctor. Most claimants are then simply left to their own devices. We will change that. We will contact every single one of those 2.6 million people as quickly as possible. We will carry out face-to-face interviews with all of them, to assess what they can do, and how we can help them back into work. It's a big task, and it won't be done overnight, but it has to be done, and as rapidly as possible."

These medical interviews will establish whether the claimants are (1) not deserving of IB and should be on the Jobseekers' Allowance and subject to its different regime; (2) capable of some work but only with a lot more support; or (3) genuinely unable to work and deserving of long-term support from the taxpayer.

Work and Pensions Secretary Peter Hain has accused the Tories of plagiarising Labour plans but ConservativeHome understands that Labour only plans to examine new claimants - the Tories are much more ambitious in wanting to assess all 2.6 million people receiving IB.  Voters will also remember that Gordon Brown has already scuppered previous reform attempts by Frank Field in the early Brown-Blair years and more recently by John Hutton.  Labour enjoys little credibility on welfare.

A full guide to the Tory proposal can be found in this PDF.

David Cameron and Chris Grayling will formally launch the party's welfare ideas on Tuesday.  Today the incapacity benefits reforms are being trailed.  Over the next 48 hours expect more about some of the other ideas that ConservativeHome highlighted yesterday.

Cameron and Grayling to unveil welfare reform plans

Both the Telegraph and Times carry reports this morning about Tory plans for "radical welfare reform".  On Tuesday David Cameron is expected to announce a Green Paper that will include the policies summarised in the graphic on the right.

Many of these ideas come out of Iain Duncan Smith's social justice report and will now be developed by Chris Grayling, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.

The Tories are thought to have decided against time-limiting benefits; a US-style reform that Frank Field regards as essential, according to The Times.

There are currently 2.6 million people on incapacity benefit and if the Government succeeds in its target of reducing that number to 1.6 million, the savings to the taxpayer would theoretically be £9bn.  But such savings are very unlikely, however.   American experience suggests that the long-term unemployed need costly assistance over many years as they move away from habits of worklessness.

The Conservative initiatives are welcomed in a Telegraph leader.  Even Simon Heffer is mildly encouraged but he calls for the Tories to go further still:

"If the Tories were to address all these factors - rigorously improving schools (including the expansion of grammar schools, which would have a trickle-down effect), demanding not merely stricter immigration controls but the expulsion of all illegal immigrants, removing benefits from all who refuse jobs and abolishing the minimum wage - then I would call for three cheers for Dave."

Earlier this week Migration Watch issued a report which found that "the effect of benefit levels combined with means testing of benefits for those who are working means that there is little financial incentive for people with families living on benefits to find employment."  Migration Watch continues: "This may partly explain why, despite there being 3.5 million people on Jobseekers Allowance or Incapacity Benefit, some 1.3 million immigrants have come to work in the UK in the past ten years."

Related links: Just before Christmas Chris Grayling spoke to Policy Exchange about his general approach to welfare reform and on today's Platform Ben Rogers discusses the extent of Britain's 'broken society'.

Is Alex Salmond Britain's most useless MP?

Scotland's First Minister is under fire today from Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser.  Research by the Scottish Conservatives is being well reported north of the border, including by the BBC and The Herald.   The Scottish party has calculated that the MP for Banff & Buchan has participated in just four votes out of a possible 149 since 8th May.

Murdo issued the following statement:

“We warned before the elections that if Alex Salmond became the MSP for Gordon then the constituency would be saddled with a part-time MSP, dividing his time between London and Edinburgh. The reality is that it is his Westminster territory of Banff & Buchan which has suffered. He must be the most useless MP in the House of Commons, in terms of attendance and actual work done for his constituents.

People in Banff and Buchan did not vote for Alex Salmond in 2005 with the view that he would go on to completely ignore them. He is treating them with contempt and with the Prime Minister now having bottled a General Election, it is likely they will have to put up with another two and a half years of this nonsense.  Alex Salmond should do the decent thing and resign as an MP. He would still be left with two jobs to do – a constituency MSP and First Minister of Scotland, which should be more than enough for his ego.  The current tally of three is most definitely a crowd and I hope that if he truly does care about people in Banff & Buchan he will pave the way for a by-election in the very near future. As it currently stands, there is no hard-working MP for Banff and Buchan, which is the least that any constituency deserves.”

Related links: Signs of warmth between the SNP and Scotland's Tories but also Scottish Tory leader supports cross-party Commission to discuss 'Stage Two' of devolution

Tory members warm to Sayeeda Warsi

Not much change from end-November to end-December ratings for most of the shadow cabinet but one notable movement is the accelerated rise of Sayeeda Warsi.  When we first rated the Shadow Minister for Community Cohesion and Social Action members were very unimpressed.  19% were satisfied with her and 39% dissatisfied.  People were surprised at her rapid elevation to the Lords and concerned at her loose talk about extremists.

Steadily she is improving her standing.  In the end-December rating the proportion of members satisfied with Baroness Warsi has risen to 47% and the dissatisfieds has dropped to 29%.

In the last month Baroness Warsi captured the headlines with her high profile visit to Khartoum to help free the 'Teddy Bear Teacher'.  She also gave a well-received speech that challenged Muslim groups to integrate more effectively and also wrote for The Telegraph, arguring that "Christmas is for everyone to celebrate".

The numbers below are for the final weeks of August, September, October, November and December:

1. David Davis +79% | +78% | +83% | +88% | +88%
2. William Hague +76% | +71% | +84% | +88% | +87%
3. George Osborne +24% | +7% | +79% | +85% | +81%
4. Liam Fox +49% | +46% | +65% | +69% | +71%
5. Michael Gove +40% | +30% | +53% | +61% | +58%
6. Chris Grayling +36% | +29% | +47% | +59% | +58%
7. Alan Duncan +40% | +28% | +47% | +51% | +55%
8. Lord Strathclyde +43% | +40% | +48% | +54% | +54%
9. Andrew Lansley +20% | +24% | +43% | +45% | +46%
10. Eric Pickles +31% | +27% | +38% | +41% | +45%
11. Nick Herbert +19% | +19% | +38% | +41% | +44%
12. Philip Hammond +17% | +14% | +36% | +42% | +42%
13. Pauline Neville-Jones +15% | +11% | +25% | +38% | +38%
14. Caroline Spelman +34% | +27% | +24% | +30% | +32%
15. Patrick McLoughlin +9% | +2% | +27% | +28% | +29%
16. Peter Ainsworth +8% | +3% | +16% | +22% | +23%
17. Oliver Letwin -6% | -14% | +17% | +23% | +21%
18. Jeremy Hunt +10% | +7% | +19% | +20% | +21%
19. Andrew Mitchell +10% | +5% | +19% | +20% | +19%
20. Owen Paterson +10% | +9% | +16% | +17% | +18%
21. Sayeeda Warsi -20% | -14% | -4% | -2% | +18%
22. Cheryl Gillan +3% | +3% | +10% | +14% |+16%
23. Theresa May +8% | +2% | +6% | +20% | +15%
24. Theresa Villers +7% | +5% | +9% | +14% | +14%
25. David Willetts -1% | -14% | +3% | +7% | +13%
26. Francis Maude -10% | -16% | -2% | +5% | +4%
27. David Mundell -6% | -11% | -3% | +3% | +2%

The Government has "betrayed" victims of human trafficking

David Davis, Damian Green and Theresa May were at St Stephen's Club today to again put pressure on the Government over human trafficking, particularly on why it still hasn't ratified the European Convention on Action Against Trafficking in Human Beings 2005 (ECAATHB).

They released a report (download pdf here) on the problems and solutions to human trafficking. It's just nine pages so worth a quick read, some of the statistics are shocking.

Labour finally took advantage of the bicentenary of the abolition of the slave trade by signing the treaty last March. Over nine months later after the headlines and it hasn't done anything about it, surprise surprise. The treaty comes into force in ten countries on February 1st. Cllr Andrew Gilbert proposed the idea of ratifying the convention fourteen months ago in our 100policies experiment, and it was approved in a vote of readers. Also, at Spring Forum this year the Party's Human Rights Commission launched a campaign in support of Stop the Traffik, which included a Freedom Wall that many activists and senior party figures signed their support.

They also spoke about making Operation Pentameter permanent, the advantages of introducing a proper UK Border Police Force (Lord Stevens' report on which is due soon), and strengthening airport security protocol in looking out for trafficking. Press reporting  so far has partly focused on proposals - such as having a 30 day asylum reprieve for victims, setting up a dedicated helpline, and increasing the number of safe houses - that were actually announced by Davis a year ago today! We reported on them at the time. Good to get more coverage for the issue though. The Government's feet-dragging on this is hard to fathom, surely it can find a few spare civil servants and the relatively small amount of money required to get it squared away.

If anyone, like one or two commenters last time, is in any doubt about what we mean about human trafficking, it's not about immigration but more about the selling of human beings such as this poor woman.

Dominic Grieve is the MP you would most like to see promoted to the shadow cabinet

We're spending this week thinking about the talent that David Cameron has at his disposal.  On New Year's Day we looked at the Tory leader's number one ally, George Osborne and the challenges facing him in 2008.  Yesterday we profiled the nine people, including the Shadow Chancellor, who, we guess, are featuring most prominently in Cameron's plans.  Today we turn to the individuals you - and we - would most like to see join the Conservative Party's top table.

[In the December ConservativeHome Members' Panel survey we asked who you would like to see in the shadow cabinet (you could choose any number of MPs from a given list) and who you would most like to see in the shadow cabinet.]

Top of the league table that resulted is Shadow Attorney General, Dominic Grieve.  18% of the people who took part in the poll chose Mr Grieve as the person that they'd like to see promoted.  43.6% agreed that they he was one of the MPs they'd like promoted.  Insiders were very surprised that he was passed over by David Cameron at the last reshuffle.  Well-liked by his colleagues he may have been damaged by his support for more grammar schools in Buckinghamshire and by his reported opposition to draft plans to terminate the authority of the European Court of Human Rights.

Patrick Mercer is the choice of 11.7% of Panel members as the MP most deserving of a shadow cabinet place.  25.4% included the former homeland security spokesman on their list of desirable members of the top team.  Most members thought Mercer was hard done by when he was forced to resign over remarks that were seen as racially insensitive but he won little sympathy from members for choosing to advise Gordon Brown at a time of maximum difficulty for David Cameron.  His rehabilitation is now underway, however, through an advisory role he is fulfilling on service families' welfare.

10.9% of you picked Ed Vaizey as your man (31.4% put him on their list).  He is having a third go at regular blogging btw.  On New Year's Day he made his third commitment to blog regularly.  He didn't quite manage yesterday!  He's not as bad as the FT Westminster bloggers, however.   The readers of that blog are stuck on 4th December.

Fourth in the league is Damian Green.  Like Dominic Grieve he was seriously considered for the Justice slot that Nick Herbert eventually received but remains in charge of the hugely important immigration brief.  10.5% of Panel members had the Kent MP as their top choice.  31.6% had him on their list.

Fifth is Mr Sleepover, Grant Shapps.  Although the Shadow Housing Minister attends shadow cabinet he is not yet a full member.  Expect that to change soon.  His Panel scores were 8.2% and 22.8%.

A PDF of Your views on all of the MPs in the vote is here,

Now, our turn.  These are the top choices of th Editors:

Tim: "As the Conservatives look to convince the British people that we are ready for government again we need more people of real intellectual weight around the shadow cabinet table.  We need practical people who will be able to run major departments of state and thinkers who are willing to challenge conventional wisdom.  Step forward Dr Greg Clark.  Currently a shadow minister in the Cabinet Office, Greg Clark became the MP for Tunbridge Wells at the last General Election.  He saw government from the inside during the Major years.  He was Controller of Commercial Policy at the BBC before becoming Head of Policy for Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard.  Today he is one of the party's truest compassionate conservatives.  Both in policy and personal integrity.  He worked on welfare policy for the social justice policy group and is the co-author of a recent forward-thinking paper on progressive politics.  When men like Greg are sat around the Conservative Party's top table we will communicate our seriousness as a Government-in-waiting."

Samuel: "For many of the reasons given by Tim above, and because the Party doesn't seem to be too interested in foreign policy, I'd like to see David Lidington given Shadow Cabinet status. He has a good knowledge of Education and Home Affairs (and a good general knowledge having captained two champion University Challenge teams), but his real expertise is on foreign affairs. After having the Northern Ireland brief which he handled very well he was moved up to be Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs in the summer - Hague's number two. David certainly keeps his ear to the ground about what goes on not just in international politics but in the Westminster village, where he is widely considered to be one of the most genuinely nice MPs. I was particularly impressed with his character a couple of months ago when without really being asked to he twice came over to the tents in Parliament Square (see above pic of him putting the world to rights with Mark Wallace) in which I was staying the night, to help wave placards about Burma and to chat to the Burmese protesters for an hour and a half."

Tomorrow we publish the December satisfaction ratings for the shadow cabinet.  One member's rating has moved quite significantly...

Andrew Lansley will be Cameron's Secretary of State for (Public) Health

Louise Bagshawe will be pleased: David Cameron, interviewed on Today, stated that Andrew Lansley would be Health Secretary if he becomes Prime Minister at the next General Election.

The Tory leader was interviewed 24 hours after he promised to make the Conservatives the party of the NHS.  Asked if the wider Conservative Party was as committed to the NHS as he was, David Cameron replied that Mr Lansley was respected throughout the NHS, partly because he had held the portfolio for a number of years and that he would be Health Secretary in his first Cabinet.  Mr Cameron also paid tribute to the Conservative MPs and candidates across the nation who were campaigning to save local hospitals and A&E services.  The commitment to the NHS was "extremely great," he insisted.

As far as ConservativeHome is aware Mr Lansley joins George Osborne as the only other frontbencher who has been given a public guarantee of becoming the Cabinet minister for the job they currently hold.  Mr Cameron's tactics are unusual.  Party leaders normally like to keep their options open on appointments but Mr Cameron does not like reshuffles and strongly believes that frontbenchers should have time to master their briefs.  He attacked the frequency with which Labour has changed Health Secretaries.

Today presenter Sarah Montague's interviewing of Mr Cameron was typically lazy. It was all of the 'how can we sure that you've become centrist on the NHS?' variety.  There was no pressing of Mr Cameron from a reformist perspective - putting the hard questions to him on the need for more radical policy moves that would address the poor healthcare that Britons receive compared to most other advanced nations.  Not unfairly, Radio 4's Norman Smith said that there was now little to choose between Labour and the Tories on healthcare.

PlayPolitical one minute video: Cameron promises more choice to NHS patients and payment by results

11am: Iain Dale wonders if David Cameron has made a rod for his own back by giving this guarantee

Cameron renews claim of being the party of the NHS

David Cameron was in Manchester this afternoon to give his first big speech of the year, on the NHS. The NHS Confederation has already welcomed it. He then went on to welcome a LibDem defector as the first Conservative councillor in Manchester City Council since 1996.

Click here for a pdf of the full speech, or see further below for our compilation of the most interesting points.

Samuel was there and, after saying it was a very good speech, asked Cameron how the decentralisation agenda would square with some of the local Conservative campaigns against the closure of large hospitals. Cameron, who had explained in the speech how the NHS of old had come to be centred on a system of large hospitals, replied that decisions shouldn't be handed down from on high. Power should be given to GPs who understand what makes the system tick, he said, but he didn't agree with some Labourites that the days of the District General Hospital were numbered. He also said that as he had now had praise from ConservativeHome there was no need to carry on with the press conference. He did, however, continue with several more questions. We think he was probably just being polite by sticking around a little while longer.

Sefton Central candidate Debi Jones asked what a Conservative government would do to help hospices. Cameron said it was a great shame that many of them don't get any state funding, and Andrew Lansley said that money would follow the patient if they were getting treatment that the NHS would provide. A minister responsible for the Methodist churches and social action projects in the notorious Wythenshawe council estate spoke about all the things they do for the community, but also about how hard it was ("we almost have to deny we are churches") to partner with government bodies like PCTs. Cameron noted that he knew Wythenshawe well from some famous photos that may or may not have included someone in a hooded top. He was very sympathetic, saying that faith-based action should not be discriminated against in any way, and got applause with the joke: "take me to a humanist soup kitchen".

The issue of mixed sex wards was also raised, referring to the recent case of patient-to-patient sexual abuse in Manchester. Andrew Lansley said he had done some FOIs a few months ago that revealed that 30% of beds were in mixed wards, including 11% of planned admissions. He also quoted Tony Blair in 1996 saying that "it can't be beyond the wit of government to end mixed sex wards"! There were no press questions, perhaps they didn't fancy the trek up north so soon after New Year's Eve! Even so, Cameron said it was one of his New Year's resolutions to be nice to them - "let's see how long that lasts!".

We've made an at-a-glance version of the speech by splicing it up into all the key verbatim phrases, please click continue to read it...

Have the police earnt a big pay rise?

Former Shadow Home Secretary Ann Widdecombe has used her Daily Express column to suggest that the police must do more to merit a real pay rise.  She writes that the public, once likely to side wholeheartedly with the police, may be more mixed in their views today*:

"When we read of policemen like PC Chris Roberts, who died on duty on Boxing Day, we are angry both on his family’s behalf and the police’s behalf. But for every PC Roberts there are dozens of stories of the abandonment of the law-abiding by the police, of forces paralysed by political correctness and of a complete lack of any proportionality and common sense."

She then gives two examples of police failures to protect the law-abiding.  Read her column here.

The think tank Reform, which is thought to have made a significant contribution to the Conservative Party's plans on police reform, is also suspicious of the police's case.  Just before Christmas Reform republished the following graph from Sir Clive Booth's review of police pay.  It showed police pay rises outstripping both inflation and average pay rises in the public and private sectors:

Reform also questions whether police performance justifies extra remuneration:

"Evidence also suggests that police performance has not risen in line with pay increases.  Certain types of crime have certainly fallen since 1994, notably property crimes such as burglary and vehicle crime.  But much of this fall has been caused by private initiative.  For example, 63 per cent of main family cars now have an alarm, compared to 23 per cent in 1992 and 38 per cent in 1998.  This goes almost unnoticed in the political debate but will have put downwards pressure on crime.  Increased sentence lengths for burglars will also have had a positive effect.  But other types of crime, such as robberies and anti-social behaviour, have remained high.  This suggests that while a larger prison population and private spending has borne down on crime, the police have made much less of a contribution."

If Ann Widdecombe has her doubts they are not being shared publicly by her successor, David Davis.  This is the public line from his office:

"The Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, has shown disrespect, verging on contempt, for the police. She has cut its pay rise significantly in a cynical deal with the Chancellor – withholding the first three months’ increase.  The Police Federation is quite right to ask the Home Secretary to reconsider her behaviour.  This is no way to treat our police force. If we were running the Home Office, we would never have got into this position. A Conservative Government would have treated the police fairly, honestly and openly – and with the respect they deserve."

David Ruffley MP is now the shadow minister with the responsibility for progressing Nick Herbert's work on police reform.

* A recent YouGov survey found that the public appear to still be on the police's side: 58% said they were "inclined to disapprove" of Jacqui Smith's decision to phase in the police pay award.  22% were inclined to approve.

The Government-in-waiting

"David Cameron has meanwhile been going back to his constituency and preparing for government. This has involved a fairly sober assessment of how many genuinely Cabinet-grade people he has on his team (he struggled to get into double digits). Ideally, his next reshuffle should be the last. It is vital for his prospects that the Tory frontbench look and sound like a competent government-in-waiting in comparison to the disintegrating Brown Cabinet."

Fraser Nelson wrote those words for The Spectator a few weeks ago.  Our emphasis.

So... Who are the people that David Cameron really rates in his top team?  Three groups of three stand out.

THE THREE BIGGEST BEASTS

David Cameron's three leading shadow cabinet ministers also top the league that measures grassroots approval of frontbenchers.  That's not just because they hold the most important positions.  Before the inheritance tax announcement George Osborne was sliding down the ratings.  At the end of September the Shadow Eric Pickles, Chancellor had dropped below Eric Pickles, Owen Paterson and Dame Pauline Neville-Jones.

George Osborne is certainly the most important member of the shadow cabinet to David Cameron.  We discussed the Shadow Chancellor's position at some length yesterday.

William Hague remains the darling of the grassroots as was proved by the reception he received for his two Party Conference speeches.  He also has responsibility for the party's northern revival through his chairmanship of Campaign North.  Can he discharge these tasks adequately given the scale of his outside interests?  That question isn't likely to go away in 2008.

Since becoming Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2003 David Davis has moved the Conservative Party in a decidedly more civil libertarian direction.  He has also won the internal argument on drugs.  The more liberal approach signalled by David Cameron during the leadership election has been quietly ditched.  But has David Davis used his tenure to develop a hard-hitting Tory approach to crime?  Team Cameron are now pleased that the law and order issue is no longer monopolised by Mr Davis.  They have high hopes that Nick Herbert will deliver some more electorally potent policies on crime over the next two years.

THE THREE TO WATCH

Nick Herbert is one of three members of the shadow cabinet who are most likely to be the big beasts of the future.  Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are the other two of this trio that only entered the Commons in 2005.

Most significant of the group is Michael Gove.  As clever as he is courteous, when Shadow Housing spokesman he demolished Government credibility on HIPS.  He is now restoring credibility to Tory education policy after the grammar schools fiasco - although some of the more striking of his policy announcements owe much to the under-acknowledged work of David Willetts.  He regularly helps with the Tory leader's most important speeches and gave 2007's definitive speech on the intellectual weaknesses of Gordon Brown.  His neoconservative outlook has not prevented his rapid rise but will probably stop David Cameron from giving him a foreign affairs brief in the near future.  He recently ditched his glasses and appears to be adopting a snappier dressing style.  Mr Gove is not without ambition.

Gove is assisted by one of the party's brightest thinkers, Dominic Cummings.  Nick Herbert also has a powerhouse adviser in his Chief of Staff, Blair Gibbs.  Herbert ran the Reform think tank before entering Parliament and was the principal beneficiary of Michael Howard's mistreatment of Howard Flight.  Having impressed David Cameron with his work on police reform he now has responsibility for one of the biggest briefs in the shadow cabinet and is opposing Jack Straw, arguably Gordon Brown's most able Cabinet Minister.  If he succeeds in this brief he is set fair for a big future.

Jeremy Hunt, Shadow Culture Secretary, is the most untested of the 'three to watch' and probably over-reacted to the James Purnell's fake photos row.  Nonetheless, his recent policy announcement on the licence fee is one of the most strategically important initiatives by the Conservatives since the 2005 General Election.  His rise has been slower than Gove and Herbert - and he leap-frogged Ed Vaizey because of the latter's complicity in the museums-charging row - but one of the most senior advisers at CCHQ describes Hunt as "our very best communicator".

THE THREE INDISPENSABLES

David Cameron and Liam Fox have not had an easy relationship.  Dr Fox did not think there was enough 'balance' to the first eighteen months of Project Cameron and his judgment was right.  He has nonetheless worked hard on the defence brief and his thinking on energy security is particularly impressive.  High points for Dr Fox included bringing Giuliani to London and leading the charge against Brown's Iraq troops withdrawal.  One of the most popular members on the right of the party he was also one of the first to understand the importance of a broader Conservatism, founding the Conservative Party's Human Rights Group and coining the 'broken society' term.

Oliver Letwin will be writing for ConservativeHome soon about the policy review process.  His fingerprints are all over Project Cameron and the West Dorset MP can probably be described as the leading frontbench representative of über-modernisation.  The first senior shadow cabinet minister to endorse David Cameron's leadership bid he was also the first senior advocate of the green agenda, of co-operation with the Liberal Democrats, of a rejection of supply-side tax cuts, of an emphasis on relative poverty and a downplaying of issues like immigration.  Martin Bright famously, and fairly, called Letwin the Gandalf of Camp Cameron.  Letwin has now struck up an unlikely alliance with Andy Coulson.  The party's director of communications is thought to regard Mr Letwin as indispensable.  He regards Mr Letwin's intellectual skills and hard work as central to earthing the hyperactivity of some of the Cameroons and their eagerness to announce things that haven't always been thought through.

The final member of our group of nine is our Leader in the Lords, Lord Strathclyde.  Very popular with the grassroots Tom Strathclyde has the enormous task of overseeing Tory operations in the one chamber where the party often enjoys a good chance of defeating or amending Government legislation.  He is 99% certain to be Leader of the Lords should Cameron become Prime Minister at the next General Election.  He is thought to believe that the party will need forty to fifty extra peers if it is to be able to conduct Government business adequately.  His considerable diplomatic skills might yet be stretched to breaking point if the party leadership's support for a more democratic Upper House comes up against the Tory peers' opposition to any big change.

***
If you were looking for people of Cabinet grade it wouldn't be difficult to grow the list but the above nine are, in our opinion, those most valued by the party leader.  Tomorrow we'll identify the MPs that the ConservativeHome Members' Panel most want to see in the shadow cabinet.  Then we'll look at the women in the shadow cabinet and which are likeliest to break into the inner core.

The Chancellor-in-waiting

George Osborne is David Cameron's most important colleague: William Hague may deputise at PMQs but the Shadow Chancellor is second only to David Cameron as the most important figure in the Conservative Party.  And It's not just because the Treasury portfolio is the most important of the three major offices in any leader's gift.  George Osborne was made General Election coordinator in last year's reshuffle.  He took the lead in handling the Tory response to 'Bottler Saturday'.  He has forced the gearing up of the Boris campaign.  With offices next door to the leader's, he is David Cameron's closest adviser on strategy and famously, with Andy Coulson (the communications supremo he recruited), led the charge against über-modernisation.  Before Christmas in their notable joint interview, in China, David Cameron made it clear that George Osborne will remain as Shadow Chancellor.  Already there is premature talk of George Osborne being Mr Cameron's natural successor.

2007 ended very well for George Osborne: Steve Richards of The Independent, not just one of the best reads in 'Fleet Street' but also one of the commentariat's nicest people, decided that Osborne was his Politician of the Year.  At the other end of the political spectrum he won the same accolade from The Spectator.  The Spectator's Fraser Nelson (now a father - Congratulations Fraser) judged that his inheritance tax announcement was "the single most effective policy ever announced by the Conservatives in Opposition"!  The Tory grassroots, who had become increasingly sceptical of George Osborne's qualities, decided he was as effective as the other top members of the shadow cabinet, David Davis and William Hague.

The Conservatives lead on the economy again: If 'it's still the economy, stupid' the Conservatives can take enormous heart from the finding that voters now trust the Tories most again when it comes to economic matters.  A 22% deficit at the last election has, according to YouGov for The Telegraph, become a slender 3% advantage for the Conservatives.  This, however, owes more to declining confidence in Labour's abilities than a transformation in belief in the Tories.  There has been a larger increase in the number of people who are unable to choose between the two main parties as to who is most likely to run the economy well.  Those people are George Osborne's opportunity and challenge in the next twelve months.

So, what are the big decisions awaiting George Osborne?

Will the commitment to match Labour's massive spending be rolled over? If the inheritance tax announcement was George Osborne's best announcement of 2007 most Tory members think that his September decision to match Labour's spending for the period up until 2010/11 was his worst.  With mounting evidence that Labour is spending very wastefully, and concerns growing at the socialisation of large parts of Britain, there must be room for more modest growth in public spending.  When George Osborne comes to review his spending decisions it must be hoped that if he chooses to match Labour's spending again that it will be for a much shorter period.  The danger is that the commitment to 2010/11 will become 2011/12 and then 2012/13.

Will George Osborne be able to deliver tax cuts?  Lower taxation became fashionable again in 2007 but George Osborne hasn't given himself much scope to respond to the mood that the TaxPayers' Alliance is championing so successfully.  He has largely rejected supply-side arguments for lower taxation, saying that all tax cuts must be fully funded.  His plans to fund lower family taxation through higher green taxation may, The Independent has predicted, be undermined by Alistair Darling's plans to raise green taxes in his 2008 Budget.  If the economy slows there will be little room for tax cuts from those famous proceeds of growth if the Tories continue to match Labour's spending splurge.  George Osborne got away with his dubious plan to fund the IHT cut with a raid on non-doms - largely because most economists see a £1bn  or £2bn tax cut as a rounding error - but other similar devices must be more able to withstand scrutiny.

Will George Osborne remain so political?  If there is a big political story in the news then George Osborne is at least as likely to appear on our television screens as Caroline Spelman.  There has to be doubts as to whether that's a sensible strategy.  It is clear that Mr Osborne will not be appointed as the powerful Chairman that ConservativeHome had hoped he would become.  He is going to remain Shadow Chancellor.  Fair enough.  But it is now important that many more voters want to trust him with the nation's finances.  He needs to look in charge of his brief.  Solid.  Reassuring.  With policies to reverse Britain's declining competitiveness.  He is pursuing promising ideas on tax simplification, IT's transformative effect on government and financial regulation.  We need to hear much more about those and less of what George Osborne thinks about Labour's day-to-day political woes.

2008 is the year in which George Osborne must become the nation's Chancellor-in-waiting.