ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Brown failed to prepare us for the lean years

As fears grow about an economic downturn George Osborne releases this statement:

"Gordon Brown could have used the boom years to prepare Britain for the lean years. But thanks to his economic incompetence, he failed to take the tough long term choices and so we are not well prepared to deal with the difficult economic times that may lie ahead.

“He has given us no room for manoevre with the highest budget deficit in Europe. His part-nationalisation of Northern Rock is a 1970s solution that damages the reputation of Britain as a home for financial services. And his tax and regulatory rises have made our economy less competitive."

Rumblings in Scotland over Conservative support for greater autonomy

The Telegraph's Alan Cochrane reports online this morning that there are tensions in the Scottish Conservatives about Annabel Goldie's support for full fiscal autonomy and a commission to look into what further powers should be transferred to Holyrood:

"Leading Tories told her that she risked alienating traditional supporters by throwing her weight behind Labour's plans for a Scottish Constitutional Commission to examine the transfer of powers from Westminster.

They are also concerned that the Tory group of MSPs at Holyrood is poised to back plans for full fiscal autonomy, which would give the Parliament the right to raise and spend all its tax revenue. This, some fear, would be a major step towards the break-up of the United Kingdom.

One former senior office bearer in the Scottish party, with over 30 years of service to numerous leaders, has written a personal letter to Mr Cameron describing Miss Goldie's plans as both a "blunder'' and "nonsense'' and suggesting that, taken together, they represent a threat to the Union. Thus far, Mr Cameron has backed Miss Goldie to the hilt.

The issue erupted at a meeting in Glasgow on Saturday of the Tories' Scottish Council, made up of the chairmen of all of the party's area associations. This is the voluntary arm of the party, as distinct from the paid officials or the MSPs at Holyrood or the solitary MP in the Commons. As such it claims to represent the views of ordinary party members and supporters in the constituencies."

Cochrane quotes "a senior Tory" saying that "at least three chairmen expressed grave reservations about the route Annabel is taking and are worried that we are following in the footsteps of the SNP", but a spokesman said that there was only a handful of questions about it and that "none of them were in any way critical". He also says that the President of Scottish Conservatives, David Mitchell, is preparing a paper outlining his opposition to fiscal autonomy but this is also denied.

Once again the key debate between unionists here is whether the United Kingdom is best preserved by sating appetites for full independence by offering semi-independence, or by taking a stand and opposing all additional powers.

10pm update: The Telegraph's Iain Martin offers a seven point guide to how the Scottish Conservatives "got into this mess"

What politicians really mean when they say "I don't pay attention to opinion polls"

Over at Atlantic.com Dana Milbank has compiled "A Berlitz guide to Washington English".  Here are a few of her 'translations'...

I have great respect for the senior senator.
I am about to drill my elderly colleague a new one.

We have full confidence in his integrity.
We will cut him loose by nightfall.

I don’t pay attention to the polls.
My job-approval rating is 32 percent.

It’s time to stop playing politics.
The other party has a winning political issue.

As I said in my Wall Street Journal op-ed last week …
I am so important that I can quote myself.

Thank you for the very frank and candid discussion.
You just spit in my eye.

Other translations are welcome in the thread below...

We're recruiting...

ConservativeHome has been going for almost three years now. It's come a long way and we believe it is still moving onwards and upwards. Thank you to all those who read, comment, email or donate.

As you can see there are a number of elements to ConservativeHome that need to be nurtured and the two of us only have so many hours in the day!

Basically we'd like to hear from anybody who is interested in working for the site...

• Regular readers who would like to volunteer to occasionally help with oddjobs.
  
• A young, ambitious intern or two who would like to intern with us for a few months.
  
• Anyone with any or all of the following: a good technical brain, interest in web 2.0, knowledge of Typepad, skill with Photoshop, skill with video-editing. Fees negotiable, voluntary assistance would not be refused!
• A politically experienced individual who would be interested in working with the team full-time on writing for and running the site. Salary negotiable.

We're really looking for people of intelligence and integrity who would be personally committed to ConservativeHome. Email Samuel if you're interested in getting involved.

We're increasingly moving away from being a blog and towards being more of a portal for conservatism, a bit like TownHall.com in the US. For some time now ConservativeHome has, like newspaper editorials or Economist news pieces, not indicated which of us writes posts on ToryDiary, LondonMayor etc. We've also launched CentreRight.com to harness the thoughts of dozens of top conservative thinkers and have somewhere that is regularly updated and providing food for the conservative blogosphere.

PS We will be responding to the recent thread on What next for ConservativeHome?

IWantAReferendum organise votes in marginal constituencies on the EU Treaty (that a new report confirms is the same as the EU Constitution)

An all-party committee of MPs has today accused the Government of downplaying the importance of the new EU Treaty.  The report also says that the Treaty is largely the same as the old Constitution in many key respects.  Commenting William Hague said:

“Although this report is from a Labour-dominated committee it makes such damaging criticisms of the Government’s case against a referendum that their argument now has no credibility.  The report effectively accuses ministers of taking part in a stitch-up designed to cut out public debate. It makes it clear that the Government has not been straight about the impact the Treaty will have on the EU’s foreign policy powers. Above all, the report explicitly states that on foreign policy the Treaty is in substance exactly the same as the EU Constitution."

Read the full Conservative reaction as a PDF here.

The Foreign Affairs Committee's report coincides with the decision of Open Europe's I Want A Referendum campaign to organise a vote on the EU Treaty for half-a-million voters in marginal seats:

"In the first wave IWR will hold referendums in 10 marginal constituencies as part of a rolling campaign which will put pressure on Gordon Brown to hold the referendum which the Government promised at the last election.  As the Government attempts to ratify the constitutional treaty in Parliament, without a referendum, or even a free vote, IWR will be giving voters a chance to have the vote which the Government is denying them.  Activists across the country have been raising funds in order to be able to hold referendums in their local area and IWR has today announced that the first confirmed constituency will be the Scottish seat of East Renfrewshire - where the incumbent MP is Europe Minister Jim Murphy."

Richard Cook, Conservative candidate for East Renfrewshire issued this statement:

"I am delighted that we have been able to raise the funds necessary to deliver a referendum on the EU Constitutional Treaty to the people of East Renfrewshire.  For so many local people the denial of the referendum they were promised by the Government on this issue is simply a matter of trust.  How can we trust our own Member of Parliament, Jim Murphy, when he specifically promised a referendum on the EU Constitution in his 2005 election manifesto but now rules it out because he does not feel he can persuade the people of East Renfrewshire of the Treaty's merits and has decided to delude himself and the country that this Treaty is not the old Constitution by another name?  I want to show local people there is a local politician prepared to trust them to make good decisions.  It is a shame that Mr Murphy does not seem to value the opinions of his own electorate."

Find out more by clicking here.

One month of Nick Clegg

At last week's two hour special meeting of the shadow cabinet Michael Ashcroft's polling team gave a presentation on the state of public opinion.  One of the conclusions was that the last two years had seen many Tory-inclined LibDem voters migrate to the blue corner.  They had left behind a smaller party that was much more left-wing than it had been for a decade or so.

It's too early to make big conclusions about Nick Clegg's short period as leader - he was elected one month ago - but here are a few quick thoughts:

Polling: His election did not produce an opinion poll bounce.  The LibDems are 0.2% higher in the latest ConservativeHome poll of polls than where they were just before Clegg was elected on the narrowest of margins.  His most memorable intervention was his 'I don't believe in God' remark.

Team Clegg: His top team is a strong one.  Not as strong as ours (!) but stronger than Brown's.  Vince Cable at the Treasury continues to win considerable publicity on Northern Rock - more than George Osborne.  Home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne was assured on BBC1's Question Time last night (on which Louise Bagshawe did very well).  And Ed Davey will be a safe pair of hands at Foreign affairs.

PMQs: He's done okay at PMQs - choosing safe topics - neither making a big impression but neither flopping in the ways that so damaged Ming.

Policy direction: Last week's speech on the public services (watch highlights here)  - Clegg's first big speech as leader - was well received by some conservative commentators, including Matthew d'Ancona.  MdA described the speech as "impressive" and "robust"; "this was Clegg back to his formidable best".  Clegg has also promised to look at Britain's Constitution and attacked Cameron's support for marriage.

Hurdles: The big tests for Clegg will come in May.  The LibDem's Mayoral candidate, Brian Paddick, is scoring only 7% against Boris and Livingstone.  Clegg will need to have compensatory wins elsewhere in local elections (or a good parliamentary by-election campaign (there's none scheduled)) if the Huhnistas aren't to start dusting off their 'Calamity Clegg' dossier.

The political spectrum: But Danny Finkelstein lifts us above the immediate party political considerations and reflects on, what he hopes, might be the longer-term impact of the new LibDem leader:

"My hope for Clegg is that he will help tip politics in Britain to the centre right. With both Liberals and Conservatives standing for smaller central government and much more choice in public services the debate will, hopefully begin to change.  The question marks are over Clegg's ability to resist pressure from Liberal activists and over whether his choice of big issue to make his mark will be a centre right issue or a more traditional centre right one."

Hefferism

Have you watched Telegraph TV's new politics programme, Right On? It's well worth twelve minutes of your time. It's perfect for the internet: lots of short, fast-moving segments, well presented and also, of course, right-of-centre.

The strongest segment of what is intended to be a weekly show is the Heffer Confronted feature.  Iain Dale, who is a natural TV talent, gets the opportunity to challenge Mr Heffer about his most recent column.  In this first edition Simon Heffer makes it clear that most MPs do not impress him.  He tells us that...

• There are very few MPs with a public service ethic...
• Most go into politics because they couldn't get a job elsewhere...
• That they couldn't get a job playing a piano in a brothel...
• That the Tory Party wouldn't have him as a candidate because it's now full of SDP and neo-socialist views...
• That he wouldn't want to be bossed around by a bunch of "thickos"...

Ann Widdecombe describes Heffer's performance as pig-ignorant.  And, although within Heffer's bluster there are some good underlying points about the emergence of a detached political class, he is a reminder of what the Conservative Party must never return to.  He's angry.  He's uncomfortable with modern Britain.  He is ungenerous to his opponents - putting the worst possible spin on their views.  He has no time for the need for a more balanced Conservative Party that takes social and international justice issues seriously.

David Cameron's modernisation of the Conservative Party has occasionally made ConservativeHome uncomfortable, but if it was ever a choice between Hefferism and Cameronism we'd be 100% with Dave.

What the Tories should do next...

Suggested next steps for the Conservatives are the focus of the main leader in today's Telegraph.

The leader begins by noting that the overall Tory position is strong:

"The Conservative Party has registered a lead over Labour in 25 out of 27 opinion polls, with a margin ranging from three points to 13. In all but four of these polls, the Tories scored 40% or more; the most recent survey, by YouGov last Sunday, put them at 43%, 10 points ahead of Labour, enough to command an overall Commons majority of more than 40 seats."

The Telegraph also praises David Cameron for "outwitting" Gordon Brown at yesterday's PMQs - during their clashes over Northern Rock.  The mood at last night's parliamentary party dinner was said to be "buoyant" and spirits were certainly helped by "hilarious speeches" from William Hague and Keith Simpson.  But complacency, The Telegraph warns, would be "suicidal".  The party has been at its best when it has been most radical.  The Telegraph highlights George Osborne's inheritance tax cut and also the welfare reforms that stemmed from Iain Duncan Smith's social justice policy group.  Here's what The Telegraph thinks the Tories should do next:

Firstly, it urges "dropping the inhibiting commitment to maintaining Labour's spending plans".  Three cheers to that!  ConservativeHome recommended the very same thing on Monday.  Labour has mounted the largest-ever peacetime increase in spending and George Osborne has pledged that it will continue.  By moderating annual spending growth from 2% to 1.5% Mr Osborne would have approximately £3bn more each year to devote to lower borrowing or economy-boosting tax relief.  At Monday's press conference Mr Cameron defended the spending me-tooism by saying that the spending settlement for the public sector was already tight enough.  But the settlement is far tighter for many hard-working families and businesses.  Over at CentreRight.com Matthew Elliott noted that "by 2009, each person working in the private sector will be paying more each month into the pension of a civil servant than they will into their own pension".  That's an extraordinary statistic.  Slower spending growth will give a Conservative Chancellor more freedom to ensure a fairer deal for the private business and private citizen.

Secondly, it calls for boldness in reform of the Whitehall machine.  The Telegraph notes that Whitehall is "now failing to meet even the most basic standards of governing competence."  Some Tories blame ministers for the incompetence but the problems go deeper.  Excessive centralisation and politically correct theories mean that the civil service is not the Rolls Royce operation that Tory ex-ministers remember.  We looked at one angle of this challenge last week in our implementation, implementation, implementation post.

Thirdly it calls for more hunger for power: "There remains a nagging perception that many Tories have yet to display it."  That perception will persist so long as so many members of the shadow cabinet pursue such extensive outside interests.  There is little doubt that David Cameron and George Osborne, in particular, are working flat out for victory.  The same cannot be said of every member of the shadow cabinet. 

Live blog of PMQs: Cameron probes Brown on Northern Rock

3.15pm round-up: Iain Dale notes that the Speaker forgot to call Nick Clegg. Ben Brogan is correct to point out that Mr Cameron is guilty of unparliamentary behaviour when he keeps referring to the Prime Minister as "you".  Fraser Nelson concludes that Cameron got the better of the Prime Minister.  The Telegraph's David Hughes enjoys the fact that both Cameron and Clegg feel confident enough to tackle Brown on the economy - once his strong suit.

Editorial verdict: Forgive the capitals but WHY DOES THE SPEAKER ALLOW THE PM TO QUESTION DAVID CAMERON AGAIN AND AGAIN? It's bad enough that Brown doesn't answer the questions that are put to him but he's abusing what is Prime Minister's Questions, not Leader of the Opposition's Questions.

CentreRight.com made a little history, too: DOUGLAS CARSWELL BECAME THE FIRST MP TO LIVE-BLOG PMQs DIRECT FROM THE CHAMBER!

Highlights. Not verbatim:

12.14pm: Nick Clegg asks about rocketing home repossessions - expected to rise by 50% this year.  Under Labour's watch, grossly irresponsible lending strategies were allowed to be pursued.  Brown responds by saying that home ownership has risen considerably under Labour.  He quotes from a Chris Huhne document cataloguing Nick Clegg's flip-flops on economic issues.

12.10pm: Brown concludes by saying that the FSA and Bank of England both support what the Government has done and the Tories used to.  The Tories, he says, have changed their position a number of times on nationalisation.  Labour stands for stability, he says, and the Conservatives for instability.

12.07pm: Cameron accuses Brown of dithering and delaying on all decisions about Northern Rock because of his planning for a General Election.

12.07pm: Brown says he refuses to give a running commentary on figures.

12.06pm: Cameron notes that Brown hasn't answered his question.  Will he confirm that the exposure won't get any greater?

12.05pm: Brown replies by saying that the Bank of England releases the data every week.  Does Mr Cameron support the actions we have taken?

12.04pm: I asked about precise figures, says David Cameron.  Is it true that the taxpayer has lent £55bn?

12.03pm: Gordon Brown responds by saying that that is still his hope that taxpayers will get all their money back.  He encourages the Opposition to support what the Government is doing.

12.02pm: David Cameron asks about Northern Rock. What is the exact extent of loans and guarantees?  Will the taxpayers get all of the money back?

Alistair Burt joins Whip's Office with important development role

One of the weaknesses of the Cameron operation has been inadequate attempts to involve the whole parliamentary party in the project.  MPs have often felt left out and uninformed about key developments in the party.  There has also been a lack of career development of the kind that characterises most modern businesses.

This week David Cameron has taken an important step to address that problem.  Alistair Burt MP has been moved from his job at Local Government (his regeneration position will be filled shortly) to a new position inside the Whip's Office.  Mr Burt will have responsibility for ensuring that all talents are matched with needs.  Mr Burt who was well-regarded by colleagues when he was PPS to Iain Duncan Smith and then Michael Howard also aims to ensure that the party in Westminster works more closely with council leaders, MEPs and other elected Conservatives.  He will be writing for ConservativeHome about his new role in the not-too-distant-future.

George Eustice has also returned from his break (which included running a marathon in Hawaii!) and is beginning his work of building stronger relations between the party leadership and third party groups, particularly within the conservative movement.  George has also agreed to write for us about what he will be doing.

Two very good appointments.

Tories say enough is enough as Labour raid good causes budget again to pay for Olympics incompetence

4.30pm update: The Government has now assured the Conservatives that this will be the last raid on National Lottery funds.  This had been a demand of Jeremy Hunt and will be a relief to all good causes hoping for better luck with their future applications.  This victory for the Conservatives may mean the Conservatives will now abstain when the issue comes to a vote.  Over at CentreRight.com Dan Lewis has authored a good post on why Olympics and other public sector projects over-run their budgets: "There is no competitive pressure to reduce costs and improve service for those quangos distributing the funds. If Camelot fails, it loses its license. When did a quango last get sacked for being cost-ineffective?"  More here.

***

Today's Times reports that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will - for the first time - vote against Labour's Olympics spending plans.  Labour is planning another raid on National Lottery funds for good causes because of further cost over-runs and have been unable to assure the Opposition that this will be the last such raid.

Jeremy Hunt, Shadow Culture Secretary, told ConservativeHome why enough was enough:

"We have been rocksolid in our support of the Olympics. Hugh Robertson, our Shadow Sports Minister, was actually in Singapore with the bid team when we won it and Michael Howard made a speech to the IOC pledging the support of a future Conservative government. However where the Olympic consensus has been most tested is the utterly incompetent way the government has handled the finances, not simply tripling the budget last March, but financing its miscalculations by raids on lottery good causes including - crazily - the budget for grassroots sport which was held up as how we would provide a sporting legacy from the Olympics.

As a result of this afternoon's Statutory Instrument, which we will vote against, the grassroots sport budget will be cut by over £100,000 for every parliamentary constituency, enough to fund a 100m grass sports pitch or a floodlit multi-use games area for each one."

For all the background on the rising costs of the Olympics, the failure to introduce adequate competition for key 2012 contracts, Ken Livingstone's role in the sorry affair and the souring of public opinion we recommend The TaxPayers' Alliance's 2012 Watchdog blog.

Chris Grayling at his best

Chris Grayling has sent a list of questions to Peter Hain.  Here are the main ones:

• When were you first made aware of the fact that your campaign had debts of over £100,000, for which you were personally liable?
• Did any of the payments to trade creditors to meet those debts exceed significantly their normal trading terms, and if so, have you sought advice from the Electoral Commission about whether these also constituted declarable loans?
• When did you first become aware that donations to your deputy leadership campaign had not been declared? And when did you first inform the Electoral Commission that your original declaration to it was incomplete?
• What checks did you personally make during the deputy leadership campaign to ensure that donations were being properly registered?
• What involvement, if any, did you have in raising the money to pay off the debts of your campaign?
• If you had no involvement in this, who did take responsibility for organising the fund raising effort to clear your debts?
• Will you commit to publishing any correspondence, by email, letter or internal memoranda, between members of your campaign team about fund raising?
• When were you first informed that sufficient funds had been raised to clear your debts?
• Given the fact that you knew that your campaign had substantial debts, and that fund raising was taking place to meet those debts, why were you unaware that additional donations were being sought for your campaign which would be declarable?
• Please could you publish a list of the actual dates on which the undeclared donations were received by your campaign?

David Cameron's press conference focuses on restoring trust in politics

ITN's Tom Bradby and BBC's Nick Robinson listen to David Cameron at this morning's regular press conference held by the Tory leader.

Highlights of the press conference:

David Cameron launched the latest report of the Democracy Taskforce which focuses on restoring trust in politics.  David Cameron ran through its six main recommendations and said that he was attracted to almost all of them:

• A £10m cap on total election spending and a £50K cap on individual donations.
• That the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards should investigate breaches of the ministerial code.
• That the process by which ministers and civil servants consult on jobs they take after public office should be put on a statutory basis.
• MPs should no longer vote on their own pay but an independent review body should decide their remuneration.  The review process should include a link to a civil service employment grade.
• MPs' allowances should be tidied and the Communications Allowance abolished.
• The MPs' pensions scheme should be closed to new entrants.  Ben Brogan has a little more on this.

George Pascoe Watson of The Sun asked about ConservativeHome's campaign on public spending.  David Cameron said that the public spending settlement with 2% growth was  already quite tight and there was no case to change it.

He said that he stood by his remarks of last week when he praised the "fascinating" Barack Obama.  He was also a great admirer of John McCain, he said, but his overall position was to watch with interest and not endorse any candidate.

He did not support Tony Blair becoming EU President because he did not support the idea of having an EU President.

After David Cameron confirmed that he would instruct frontbenchers to vote for a 1.9% pay increase for MPs Ben Brogan asked a tough question about the fact that half of his shadow cabinet was pursuing outside paid jobs.  David Cameron replied that they were all delivering the goods but would obviously have to stop outside jobs once they were in government.

The Mirror asked if he'd kept his New Year's resolution to stop smoking.  He said that he had (although Glen Oglaza isn't 100% convinced by Mr C's choice of words) and encouraged The Mirror to adopt a resolution of its own not to go through his rubbish bins.  Some time ago The Sunday Mirror had gone through his trash and found environmentally-unfriendly nappies but nappies, apparently, that Mr Cameron's severely disabled son needs.

And finally ConservativeHome asked Mr Cameron if he sympathised with Dizzy Thinks' concern that MPs have to report donations etc to two bodies - as is at the core of confusion with George Osborne's difficulties.  The Conservative leader said that rationalisation "would be worthwhile" but that it didn't need to be done from "on high".  The Electoral commission could streamline procedures in direct talks with the parliamentary authorities.  Mr Cameron agreed from personal experience that double reporting was frustrating.

The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow live-blogged the press conference.

The Conservative Daily

We have now initiated a daily email to highlight key content on ConservativeHome and to summarise the main news stories likely to be of interest to Tory activists.

If you are not a subscriber to ConservativeHome's email service (and you will have received an email from us earlier today if you are) you can subscribe by clicking here.

There is an 'unsubscribe' option at the bottom of each email so you can remove your name from our list at any time.

George Osborne must not renew his pledge to continue Brown's spending binge

Over the last few years Brown has presided over a massive growth in the size of the state.  The low tax economy built by Margaret Thatcher and John Major is being undone.  Britain plc is becoming less competitive.  Parts of our nation are being 'Soviet-ised' as Labour 'buys votes' in its heartlands.  Waste in the public sector is well-documented.  And are taxpayers getting value for money from the extra 100-and-more taxes that have been levied?  The question answers itself.  Gordon Brown has been on a spending binge and it's time for some sobriety.

Graeme Leach, Chief Economist of the Institute of Directors, agrees that there is a major problem:

"In the absence of war or recession the public spending build-up since 2000 has been unprecedented. No political party is facing up to the need to restrain public spending as much as is needed. The IoD has called for public spending growth to be kept to 1.5 per cent per annum not just for the next CSR but the following one as well. If we're to reverse the wasteful build-up over the past decade tough decisions will have to be made. Without them high tax and spend will progressively undermine our competitiveness."

Last September George Osborne signed up to Labour's spending plans until 2010/11.  That decision is unpopular amongst Tory members.  Our monthly polling of the Conservative grassroots shows that they oppose the pledge by 64% to 24%.  It's vital that Mr Osborne's pledge is not renewed as we get closer to a 2009 or 2010 General Election.  George Osborne needs to allow himself more room to cut borrowing and/ or introduce economy-reviving tax relief.  As it stands the Shadow Chancellor has left himself with fewer and fewer options.  See the graphic below:

Corin Taylor of the The TaxPayers' Alliance agrees that it's time for restraint:

"It was always wrong for the Conservatives to commit to matching the Government's spending plans. With an economic slowdown on the way, increasing spending at 2% could mean higher taxes, the worst possible thing to do in a recession. It shouldn't be beyond the wit of the Shadow Treasury team to find savings, reduce unnecessary government functions and so create room for much needed relief for overtaxed families and businesses."

ConservativeHome believes that spending growth of 1.5% is almost certainly enough.  That is the IoD's preferred level of growth.  That would give a Conservative Chancellor almost £3bn extra each year to deploy.  That could be used to reduce borrowing.  It could be used for economy-boosting tax relief - tax relief that will partly, if not wholly, pay for itself.  £3bn for example would almost pay for 2p off Corporation tax.  Alternatively it would nearly pay for a penny off income tax.  Less economically useful but more politically potent, it could be used to buy some relief for council taxpayers.  Council tax is now Britain's most hated tax.

David Cameron promised to share the proceeds of growth.  There is a real danger that the already bloated state will gobble up all of any proceeds if the Tories insist on continuing Labour's spending splurge and do not take strong action to increase economic competitiveness.

We give the final word to Michael Fallon MP, a Tory member of the Treasury Select Committee:

"George Osborne showed how we can win the battle on tax. Lower public spending growth is the other key to cutting Labour's borrowing, and putting the public finances back in order.   We cannot keep spending more than we can afford to borrow."

***
As with all of the ten campaign themes that make up ConservativeHome's Agenda2008, we'll be providing monthly updates on this need for a Conservative government to deliver more responsible growth in public spending.  Two other Agenda2008 items have already been launched: (1) A campaign for fairer-sized seats and (2) A media policy that encourages more diversity.

Another angle to George Osborne's £500,000

Ben Brogan notes that Labour is doing its best to big up the Osborne donations story but there really is no comparison with Peter Hain's undeclared £103,000.  George Osborne told the Electoral Commission about the money channeled via CCHQ to his Shadow Chancellor's office.  Perhaps he should also have made a declaration to Commons' authorities but he clearly wasn't trying to hide it.  The best two observations on the Hain money were made by...

1. The Mirror's Kevin Macguire who blogged that Mr Orange spent £23.32 for every vote that helped him come fifth in the Labour deputy leadership battle... and
2. Former Tory MP Neil Hamilton who, in his Sunday Express column, notes that Hain was one of his most "censorious and unforgiving critics" when he didn't declare £667 back in 1990.  Mr Christine Hamilton concludes: "If Hain thought £667 a resigning matter, he should commit hari-kari for £103,000".

But if there is nothing dodgy about the £487,000 received by George Osborne there is some real shock and anger amongst his shadow cabinet colleagues.  We have spoken to three of them tonight and they are staggered that Mr Osborne has been in receipt of such "largesse" while they have been constantly refused money by CCHQ.  One senior member of Mr Cameron's top team put it this way:

"George has the biggest job after DC and he should get the biggest share of the Treasurers' pie but there's no fairness here. I can hardly afford to undertake any long-term project. The shadow cabinet knew nothing of this.  It's further evidence that the shadow cabinet is little more than a rubber stamp for the decisions taken by Cameron's kitchen cabinet."

Lansley: It is still wrong to take organs without consent

BBC News is headlining Gordon Brown's surprising announcement today that he prefers "a system of "presumed consent" - where hospitals could take organs unless a person had explicitly opted out before death or their family objects".  The Prime Minister believes that thousands of lives might be saved by such a policy shift and he writes about the issue for The Sunday Telegraph.

Surprisingly Andrew Marr didn't ask David Cameron about the issue during their interview earlier.  Shadow Health secretary Andrew Lansley has just issued this statement, however:

“I urge people to consider organ donation and if willing, to put their name on the register. The Government’s responsibility is to encourage registration and ensure transplant co-ordinators and transplant nurses are in place so that when organs are made available they are used for transplants.  Only four years ago, Gordon Brown and Alan Johnson voted against assumed consent in organ donations on the basis that there was no public support, they said that there were better ways of increasing donations and that the State should not determine what happens to people’s bodies after death. Parliament concluded that to take organs without consent was wrong. It is neither right nor necessary for us to change that view”.

The Westmonster blog thinks that the spinmeisters who are allowing Brown to be painted as an organ harvester should be fired:

"The Prime Minister is plummeting in the polls. The government is seen as encroaching on civil liberties. So, two weeks into a new year "relaunch" seeking to revive his political fortunes, how does Gordon Brown want you to start out your Sunday morning? Naturally, by reading an op-ed in today's Telegraph announcing a new government programme to take your heart after you die, without your consent.  As comedian Jerry Seinfeld might say, "Who are the ad geniuses who came up with that one?""

1pm: Iain Dale's take - Brown Wants to Nationalise Our Bodies

Cameron calls on Hain to answer the public's questions or he should go

Interviewed by Andrew Marr this morning the Conservative leader said that Peter Hain cannot go on as yesterday - issuing a statement to the press and then scurrying away without answering questions.  Mr Cameron said the Hain situation was another example of the Prime Minister dithering.

Other highlights (not verbatim) of David Cameron's interview:

• Labour would certainly have lost the General Election if Gordon Brown had called one last autumn - and the Conservatives had every chance of winning it.
• The Tory revival in the polls didn't happen after Brown had 'bottled it' but because voters became enthusiastic about the programme we unveiled at our Party Conference.
  
• The Osborne and Hain cases are "completely different".  All of the Osborne money was declared to the Electoral Commission and an email from the House of Commons' authorities appeared to suggest that further disclosure was not necessary.
• I support a cut in the amount of money that a party can spend at a General Election - that is when political parties can get "carried away".  I do not support controls in between elections because we need to make it fair for candidates against MPs who enjoy big allowances.
• It's possible that planning for an autumn General Election may have distracted Labour and stopped them from making the decisions that needed to be taken on Northern Rock.
• We need a new Bank of England Act to put the Bank in full charge of decisions to deal with financial crises.
• We will give the Bank Governor a one eight year, non-renewable term in order to strengthen independence.
• We will definitely have a referendum on the EU treaty if it hasn't then been ratified.  If it has been ratified we'll look at how to proceed then.

Mr Cameron also appeared to say that he will back Labour on nuclear energy but that the Government needed to do much more on decentralised energy and renewable energy.

At the end of the interview Mr Cameron agreed that parliament needed more MPs with backgrounds in small business and in the voluntary sector.

Sunday Telegraph poll shows welfare reforms are a vote winner

An ICM poll in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph will put the Conservatives back on 40%, with Labour and the LibDems on 33% and 18% respectively. The ICM poll before New Year had us 5% ahead. Cameron also beats Brown by just 39% to 38% on being seen as having the best qualities to be PM.

On the issues, 82% agreed with the recently announced Conservative policy that people should lose unemployment benefit after two years unless they do community projects, and 77% said they believed most unemployed people in their area could find a job if they really wanted one. 78% said it should be made harder for immigrants to come to Britain, and 48% to 43% agreed with Brown's nuclear expansion plans, especially men.

1am update on the 13th January: The Sunday Times also has a poll.  Its YouGov survey gives the Conservatives a 10% lead and identifies growing concerns about the state of the economy: "By 41% to 14% people think their family’s finances will worsen this year, and by 32% to 27% they expect house prices to fall."

Senior Tories "annoyed" at Sun's coverage of Mori poll

Earlier today we noted the Mori survey for The Sun.

The survey found that the Tories were 10% ahead but that Brown was (narrowly) the preferred PM.  It appears that the samples were not the same.  The 10% lead came from those very likely to vote but the lead for Brown was from amongst all those sampled - not necessarily the people who will decide the next election.

Helpfully, Mori will be publishing the full data set for their poll on Monday on their website.  We'll then be able to see if those who are certain-to-vote will rate Brown quite so well as every eligible voter.  PoliticalBetting.com's Mike Smithson has much more on this.  The Sun's treatment of the story has certainly annoyed senior Tories who think much more should have been made of the headline voting figures.

A poll for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph will, ConservativeHome understands, have solidly good news for David Cameron - on personal ratings and headline voting intentions.  More later.

Tories 10% ahead but Brown still favoured as PM

An Ipsos Mori survey for The Sun gives the Tories a 10% lead.  The Conservatives are steady on 42% and Labour is down 3% to 32%.

Other findings show that the Tory leader still has work to do.  Brown beats Cameron by 45% to 27% when it comes to who would be best in a crisis.  The existing PM also has a 37% to 33% lead over the man who wants to be PM when Mori's sample was asked who would be "most capable Prime Minister" overall.  Cameron has a 37% to 34% advantage when it comes to "best able to deal with 21st century problems".  This excellent video from last year's Party Conference successfully painted Mr Brown as a man of the past.

And what are we to make of The Sun's treatment of its poll?  "Brown is still the top man (just)," the newspaper headlines.  The Sun Says column offers us more about the thinking at Wapping:

"The Prime Minister’s New Year relaunch HAS stabilised his freefalling popularity. Voters give him the edge again as a better PM than the Tory leader... But it’s not all coming up red roses.  The Tories are ahead overall by ten points, double their lead two months ago... The wildly fluctuating results of recent polls prove one thing, though: Britain, like America, is still entirely unsure which way to jump."

We think their poll says that Labour is on course to lose its majority but the Tories still have a lot of work to do if we are to win a parliamentary majority.  Most of all, we must find more reasons to enthuse voters in 2008.  We need more pledges like last year's inheritance tax cut.

Conservatives must encourage more media diversity

There are two draft 'media policy' ideas that ConservativeHome would like to see fully embraced by the Tory leadership in 2008.

One was released just before Christmas by Jeremy Hunt MP, our Culture spokesman.  It's an idea that will take a modest portion of the licence fee (perhaps 2%) - currently monopolised by the BBC - and distribute it to another broadcaster, or other broadcasters, so that they can also offer 'public service broadcasting'.  Our hope is that the 2% would go to form an alternative to Radio 4:

"What we need, as former BBC journalist Robin Aitken has proposed, is a new licence fee funded broadcaster that is based on the British system of getting to the truth' via having opposing arguments test one another.  Our judicial system (defence and prosecution) and parliamentary system (opposition and government) is based on this adversarial principle.  At the moment, the BBC is largely based on the French inquisitorial system whereby an expert searches for truth.  The trouble is that the BBC expert is up to eleven times as likely to be liberal as conservative."

Next week Peter Whittle of the New Culture Forum will be writing a Platform piece for ConservativeHome that will describe what this alternative broadcaster might look like.  It would not be a conservative station but a station that ensured those groups (those licence feepayers) currently under-represented by the BBC would get more of a chance to be involved in programme-making.

The second idea was one that won overwhelming approval from ConservativeHome readers when it was part of our 100policies process (a process that we will revive later this year).  'Aristeides' explained his policy idea at the time:

"All government and local authority jobs will only be advertised on a single government-run website. Operationally, it will be on a low cost almost blog-style platform, searchable by indexing (google-type) software. No one who is looking to work in the civil service should not be able to use the internet. All job centres would obviously also have readily available access to the site over the internet. Departments, councils and quangos would then use the site rather than advertising in the press. With the benefit of technology, jobs can easily be sorted by area, skill or salary."   

We understand from George Osborne's office that the idea remains under active consideration.  We can see no good reason why it does not become party policy.  It would save the taxpayer a considerable sum of money and it would end a huge subsidy to a newspaper with a strong left-liberal bias.  Why should conservative taxpayers be paying for Guardian journalism?

The first Agenda2008 item was published earlier this week: It's time for fairer seats.

Throughout 2008 we'll provide monthly updates on the progress of our 2008 campaigns.

Proof that the Hunting with Dogs legislation was a complete waste of parliamentary time

Interesting answers to a parliamentary question put down by Tory MP David Ruffley.

Mr Ruffley asked the Home Office "how many (a) charges, (b) prosecutions, (c) convictions, (d) cautions and (e) fines there have been for breaches of the Hunting Act 2004 in each police force area since its enactment?".

The reply came yesterday.

Apparently there were three prosecutions by three constabularies in 2005.  There were three fines and one caution in total.

In 2006 there were eleven prosecutions by four different police forces.  There were five guilty verdicts.  Five fines.  No cautions.

There two plausible explanations for these staggering low levels of prosecution:

1. The hunting community is almost entirely law-abiding and is no longer chasing foxes with dogs.
2. The law was incredibly badly drafted, almost unenforceable and perhaps the biggest ever waste of parliamentary time.

If Osborne succeeds in killing Brown's economic reputation, it's all over for Labour

On New Year's Day we identified George Osborne as the Conservative to watch this year.  He has the task of eroding Gordon Brown's reputation for economic competence - the one thing keeping Labour afloat in a sea of broken promises.

In a speech to the London School of Economics today, Mr Osborne will begin his campaign to kill Brown's reputation once-and-for-all.  He will accuse the First Lord of the Treasury of squandering ten good economic years and of failing to prepare Britain for the tougher times now arriving:

"Our competitors used the fat years to prepare for the lean years. Britain did not.  We are the least prepared country in the developed world to cope with the current financial turbulence.  [Gordon Brown] didn't fix the roof when the sun was shining. His 11 budgets have left us with the worst public finances in Europe."

In advance coverage of the speech the Daily Mail reports that Mr Osborne wants Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, to have his appointment reconfirmed immediately.  The Mail suggests that Gordon Brown only wants Mr King to have another three years as Governor rather than the customary full five year term.  Mr Osborne thinks reappointment now will help settle jittery financial markets:

"There is plenty of uncertainty out there. There is plenty of uncertainty about inflation, there is plenty of uncertainty about the turbulence on the financial markets. One area of uncertainty you could end today would be to simply say Mervyn King is going to be reappointed."

According to The Times, "The Shadow Chancellor will issue an explicit pledge that a future Conservative administration would not run a deficit on the government’s current account during sustained periods of economic growth. “We must reform the failed fiscal rules so that never again do we borrow in a boom.”"

Related links: George Osborne was interviewed at 7.17am on this morning's Today programme.and yesterday, on Platform, 'Voice from the City' asked if the end is nigh for the lender of last resort.

11.30am: Download a PDF of George Osborne's speech.

This is the key quote: "Britain is not prepared if rainy days lie ahead.  And the blame lies squarely and fairly with Gordon Brown.  His eleven budgets have left us with the worst public finances in Europe. The system of financial oversight he personally insisted on left Britain as the only country facing a run on the bank. His taxes and regulations have left the British economy more inflexible and less competitive. Gordon Brown likes to quote the Bible.  But he obviously doesn’t know about the story in Genesis of the Pharaoh who was warned to use the seven fat years to prepare for the seven lean years – and did.  Well our Prime Minister was also warned in the fat years to prepare for the lean years – but he set nothing aside.  Now most say the lean years are here, the cupboard is bare and Britain is vulnerable. We’ve got used over the last decade to Gordon Brown boasting about his reputation for economic competence.  But his actions betray him.  It is his economic incompetence and fiscal incontinence that have left Britain more exposed than any other developed economy to the current crisis."

Implementation, implementation, implementation

Tony Blair had education, education, education as his electoral catchphrase.

David Cameron said that he didn't need three words, just three letters: N H S.

ConservativeHome would like to suggest an alternative: implementation, implementation, implementation.

There was a massive gap between what Tony Blair promised to do and what he actually achieved.

One of the most important things that David Cameron needs to do is to convince people that he is capable of actually delivering on what he promises.  Francis Maude's Implementation Office - just getting up and running under Nick Boles - has this task.  The IO has the job of converting policy ideas into workable departmental plans and for training shadow ministers to be real ministers.  Mr Maude has said that the possibility of a second General Election victory (should we get a first!) will owe much to whether the IO helps build an effective Conservative government.

There are many other ways of narrowing the gap between political promises and governmental achievements.  This week we've seen Chris Grayling emphasise the extent to which Tory welfare ideas are built on what has already worked in other parts of the world.  There is scope for localisation of solutions.  More people with business experience could be brought into Whitehall.  And, of course, government could do things better by doing fewer things.

We would like to suggest one other possibility: Whitehall may need more political appointments.

ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie has studied President Bush's faith-based programme in America.  It only started to work because political staffers within Washington's main departments pushed and pushed the bureaucracy to do what was necessary.  Our guess is that more political appointees in key Whitehall departments may be needed to ensure Sir Humphrey et al do not frustrate manifesto pledges.

The current Tory position is to reduce the number of political appointments but perhaps that's a promise that only refers to media positions?  We're not quite sure.  Anyhow, do you agree with our contention that a successful Conservative government may need a more politicised Whitehall?