One month of Nick Clegg

At last week's two hour special meeting of the shadow cabinet Michael Ashcroft's polling team gave a presentation on the state of public opinion.  One of the conclusions was that the last two years had seen many Tory-inclined LibDem voters migrate to the blue corner.  They had left behind a smaller party that was much more left-wing than it had been for a decade or so.

It's too early to make big conclusions about Nick Clegg's short period as leader - he was elected one month ago - but here are a few quick thoughts:

Polling: His election did not produce an opinion poll bounce.  The LibDems are 0.2% higher in the latest ConservativeHome poll of polls than where they were just before Clegg was elected on the narrowest of margins.  His most memorable intervention was his 'I don't believe in God' remark.

Team Clegg: His top team is a strong one.  Not as strong as ours (!) but stronger than Brown's.  Vince Cable at the Treasury continues to win considerable publicity on Northern Rock - more than George Osborne.  Home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne was assured on BBC1's Question Time last night (on which Louise Bagshawe did very well).  And Ed Davey will be a safe pair of hands at Foreign affairs.

PMQs: He's done okay at PMQs - choosing safe topics - neither making a big impression but neither flopping in the ways that so damaged Ming.

Policy direction: Last week's speech on the public services (watch highlights here)  - Clegg's first big speech as leader - was well received by some conservative commentators, including Matthew d'Ancona.  MdA described the speech as "impressive" and "robust"; "this was Clegg back to his formidable best".  Clegg has also promised to look at Britain's Constitution and attacked Cameron's support for marriage.

Hurdles: The big tests for Clegg will come in May.  The LibDem's Mayoral candidate, Brian Paddick, is scoring only 7% against Boris and Livingstone.  Clegg will need to have compensatory wins elsewhere in local elections (or a good parliamentary by-election campaign (there's none scheduled)) if the Huhnistas aren't to start dusting off their 'Calamity Clegg' dossier.

The political spectrum: But Danny Finkelstein lifts us above the immediate party political considerations and reflects on, what he hopes, might be the longer-term impact of the new LibDem leader:

"My hope for Clegg is that he will help tip politics in Britain to the centre right. With both Liberals and Conservatives standing for smaller central government and much more choice in public services the debate will, hopefully begin to change.  The question marks are over Clegg's ability to resist pressure from Liberal activists and over whether his choice of big issue to make his mark will be a centre right issue or a more traditional centre right one."

Comments

[Malcolm Dunn]

Been very suprised that Clegg has not announced anything new in terms of policies radical or not.He's not as polished a speaker as Cameron either.
If he's going to achieve anything he's going to have to take some big risks but so far has played safe. Is that a worthwhile strategy?

[Votedave]

It is becoming increasingly clear that Sir Menzies Campbell was not the LibDems' problem.

[Mark Fulford]

on which Louise Bagshawe did very well

Unlike Dr Fox?

[Northernhousewife]

Had you asked me at the start of the contest,I would have put money on a LibDem bounce.
LibDem Voice had high hopes that the publicity would raise the profile of a number of their front bench which in many cases is better than Labours'[as the Editor rightly points out]. They were understandably disappointed at having only two put themselves forward. It just seems to have continued to underwhelm since.
Their Question Time thread's preamble introduced Chris Huhne as 'the man 49% of you voted for'.
I think the 49% may well have been right. Nick Clegg got elected [only just] on a positive media perception that had not been tested on a bigger scale and a belief among LibDems that we were frightened of him. As the contest went on, we got less so and many of us started to think Huhne was more of a threat. They mistook such comments as spin and further evidence of his hold over us. They were wrong. We were surprised at what we saw [or didn't see, from both men].
It is quiet on Lib Dem Voice.
This is not causing much fuss on here. today.
There is a big difference between being a big cheese and being top dog [sorry about mixing the metaphores]. Look at Gordon. A leadership contest is supposed to help you see that [again look at Gordon]. Their aristocracy can't seem to keep their hands off the tiller. At this time of the big squeeze, they need to be radical. The old guard of any party are not going to plot your course into dangerous new territory.

[Paul Kennedy]

Got to remember that the overwhelming majority of L/D members did not vote for Clegg....third did, third voted for Huhne and a third gave up and didn't vote.....not difficult to see why.

[David Belchamber]

If Nick Clegg does take the Lib Dems further to the right, they could be useful in backing us, rather than Labour, on certain issues on a case by case basis.

Tim is right that they do have some able people; I only wish that Vince Cable were on our side!

[Joe James Broughton]

I think Huhne would have been a better choice for them, maybe not on policy, but I agree Campbell wasn't their core problem - and that is good news for us.

They are a divided party which will be squeezed at the next election.

[Jake]

Once upon a time there was a real Liberal party in England which was unabashed about making things happen both at home and abroad . They believed in liberal democracy and the muscle to make it stick . They have gone now .

I believe in liberal democracy too which rather rules any membership of the LibDems though. If I had been I would have voted for Huhne . A visibly harder and sharper profile and a bit more threatening .

Cleggy seems a bit ineffective by comparison .

Time will tell.

[Philip]

Calamity Clegg’s attack on David Cameron’s support for marriage demonstrates the Lib Dems haven’t and won’t change or modernise. They will still want the out-dated tried and tired social liberal agenda and softness on crime, that have been forced on us since the 1960s. The consequences on family life, on society, and law and order – can now be seen: calamitous.

[Northernhousewife]

He has been on the 24 hour news stations tonight about the latest lost data. He stutters and waffles, goes from ghostly white to red in the face. He seems earnest but boring and this famous charisma is just nowhere to be seen on TV.

[Gloy Plopwell]

One has to be more patient about the lib Dems. The polls are not as horrible as in October. We have stupendous momentum, and we Lib dems will have 200 seats next time.

[Northernhousewife]

'polls are not as horrible = stupendous momentum'????

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

"we Lib dems will have 200 seats next time."

Indeed. I've heard that you will make Herbert Asquith your Prime Minister?

[James Maskell]

Both Bro0wn and Cameron have brought immediate bounces to their parties polling standings. I would suspect that is because they were a fresh change (Blair had been in the job for too long and was stagnating opinion and Cameron was talking differently to the previous leaders). Clegg though is an unknown quantity and the public arent sure what to make of him. He needs to quickly ensure that a solid view is put into the publics minds otherwise he will be just a political ghost.

[Praguetory]

Clegg is a joke. Once again, the Lib Dems have selected someone who reveals the paucity of their party.

[David Parker]

The report(if true)that Clegg proposes that the Lib/Dem party should abstain from a vote on the Con/Treaty referendum, despite their own Manifesto promise,will merely serve to reinforce the public contempt for politicians in general and to demonstrate his own lack of integrity or leadership ability.
Whilst members of the general public have a perfect right to abstain from voting, as an indication of their distrust of the whole political establishment, should this also apply to a career politician, who asks the voters to put their trust in him?

[Northernhousewife]

Re David's comments. Is that cop-out his idea of being radical, as promised in his campaign? What is campaign did show is that when under the spotlight, he is a wet.
We have the only leader with a spine.

[Joe James Broughton]

I'm pretty sure Clegg will make minimal impact - and possibly slightly negative difference for them.
His petulance and long winded cliched incoherence probably won't go down well.

The media will probably even tire of him, having given the unfortunate Ming a bad press.

I'm pretty sure that the LDs slightly stronger (but still poor) ratings after October 2007 were because of Dr Cable's leadership, (who although he was talking very wise after the event on Northern Rock), has economic gravitas rare in that party.

[Not Boy George]

We should be concerned that Vince Cable is outperforming George Osborne, especially on Northern Rock. Cable is abe to call upon his professional experience as an economist at Shell whereas Osborne has no experience outside CCHQ or Whitehall.

Voters' perception of the parties' economic competence decides election and Osboorne does not cut the proverbial mustard. Cameron must replace him with a real heavyweight such as Davis or Hague. That's the potential difference between a hung Parliament and a Conservative overall majority.

[Joe James Broughton]

I agree with that - I'm afraid. (Not Boy George).

(Actually Dr Cable is being very wise after the event on Northern Rock, but people don't seem to notice that).

[Northernhousewife]

It is a considerably easier brief for Cable since the Lib Dems are the only party comfortable with the general concept of nationalisation [being to the left of Labour in so many respects].
Osborne's jig has far more complicated steps.

People didn't seem to notice Labour [and Gordon Brown in particular] supporting all the decisions that led to Black Wednesday. Did they share the blame with us?
Unless and until Northern Wreck is seen to affect the money in people's pockets, all it does is play along with the mood music of fear and depression.
Considering its' potentially disasterous consequences, we need to hope that is all it does.

[John France]

I feel that Mr Clegg has failed at the first hurdle. Did he not promise a referendum on the treaty too? So what are we to believe from him in the future?

[Votedave]

Yes - how dare Nick Clegg and the LibDems sit on their hands and let Brown get away with breaking his promises.

They deserve complete oblivion at the next election.