First poll of 2008

The headline figures in tomorrow's Populus poll for The Times point to a narrower Tory lead but the better news is the continuing slide of the 'Brown brand':

"A Populus poll for The Times, the first of the new year, shows that David Cameron has overtaken Mr Brown in being seen to have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister after a big recent shift.  Six months ago, just after becoming Prime Minister, Mr Brown was ahead of Mr Cameron by 56 to 32 per cent on this measure. Now, the Conservative leader is ahead by 44 to 40 per cent. Much of the decline has happened in the past two months.  There have been similarly large shifts against Mr Brown on other measures of leader image, cutting his previously large lead on being strong from 32 to six points, while Mr Cameron has moved even further into the lead on charisma and likeability."

Comments

[Votedave]

Why does Labour always get away with it? They don't deserve 33%.

There does seem to be some sort of Clegg Bounce - let's hope it's temporary so we can get back into a healthy lead again.

[Andrew Woodman]

Never believe polls a fortnight wither side of Christmas. Our lack of media presence won't be helping either. Don't panic.

[Alan S]

mark my words... This will all end with a Clegg Cameron pact

[activist]

What Andrew said.

Sean Fear on PB makes the point that if *Populus* is still recording a 4pt Con lead it's all over.

[Richard]

How on Earth can Clegg get a bounce when he hasn't even done anything but deliver that dull victory speech?

[Richard Carey]

Never believe polls a fortnight wither side of Christmas. Our lack of media presence won't be helping either. Don't panic.

I'm certainly not panicking! Polls go up and down, and while they are important for momentum, you do have to learn to integrate up over a series of them, especially with movements within a few points over a comparatively quiet period.

mark my words... This will all end with a Clegg Cameron pact

I'm not sure where you read that from? - there have only been signals in the past that the LibDems at a senior level would seek a pact with Labour, to be honest. Having said that, if it ends instead with more of the soft LibDem vote coming over to us, I'd obviously welcome that.

I think talk about pacts is unhelpful unless the situation were to actually arise, when we could judge terms and prospects - then we would presumably look, hypothetically, for the broadest possible coalition that would allow us to deliver major policy pledges.

Meanwhile, let's concentrate on getting the results we need! The detrioration in Brown's personal standing over a range of criteria is very encouraging on that front.

[Kevin Davis]

A 3% Lib Dem bounce is not good news for the Lib Dems. hey should have done much better than this - they have a new leader after all. things will only get worse for Calamity Clegg!

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

All it goes to show is that we still have much to do before we can win the next General Election.
We have to gain ground in the Midlands and in the North.

[rightsideforum]

And Clegg thinks he can break the two party hold? His leadership bounce is a pathetic 3% up against one of the most incompetent governments our country has ever had.

[David]

But the Clegg bounce is not against "an incompetent government", it is against the Tories! Just what you lot feared.

[Tony Makara]

Having just seen a taster for the party's welfare reform you can expect Labour to close the gap even further. The reforms are draconian and will play into Labour's hands as they can now portray David Cameron as an Eton toff who wants to force the unemployed to work for nothing. Not very clever Mr Cameron and Mr Grayling. These so-called reforms are not going to produce one single job. Very poor stuff. Isn't there anyone in the Conservative party who understands what causes unemployment and how to end it?

[Michael Davidson]

A four point lead against a struggling government led by a man like Brown is simply not good enough.

It won't be long before we're back level again.

[Tony Makara]

Michael Davidson, I think you are going to be proven right. The Conservative news management is just not good enough, its too patchy with bursts of coverage and then nothing at all for long periods. Today's disappointing welfare reform proposals will not help either. No promise of jobs, no strategy for jobs, not even training, just a tail-end punitive regime to give the unemployed something to do while out of work. Labour will have a field day picking this apart.

[Moral minority]

"How on Earth can Clegg get a bounce when he hasn't even done anything but deliver that dull victory speech?"

He's not Ming. His acceptance speech was an impersonation of Dave. An increase in 3% during the festive period is as good as he could have expected. Clegg will be regaining support in target seats.

2008 will be the real test for Cameron, Clegg and Brown. The stakes are high. If they screw up, they'll be toast.

[Alex Swanson]

Why does Labour always get away with it?

Because, sad to say, their basic philosophy of government - lots of it, high taxation, an elite telling the rest of us how to live - is shared not only by the majority of the media, but also by the Conservative leadership itself. Details differ, but the basic approach is the same. It's hard to criticise or hold to account when you have no real underlying disagreement.

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Alex Swanson, Labour "get away with it" because they are not socialist - nor is the Conservative leadership - as you imply.

It is because scaremongering and crying wolf such as "the most incompetent government ever" doesn't work.

[Malcolm Dunn]

The longer I take an interest in politics the more fickle the electorate seems to become! Like other posters I'm a bit suprised that there has been any bounce for the Lib Dems at all.Their leadership contest was a non event largely ignored by the media and Clegg has not announced any new policy at all since his election, in fact he's kept a very low profile.So why any bounce at all?
Margaret I don't understand your post at all. Should we be building up the Labour government as being competent?

[Bexie]

Lib Dem is only for those without the intlectual honesty to vote Labour. We need to keep up our act to keep in the media eye. IMHO Cameron is doing precisely this.

[Northernhousewife]

Tony Maka

My understanding of the Tory 'back to work' proposals is that there will be a large investment in ensuring people are helped to find work and the appropriate training. According to this mornings Radio 4 - alot of carrot and alot of stick. The interviewers main concern was how the investment in the carrot was to be paid for. Even Radio 4 acknowledged that the public mood was changing saying Cameron's proposals were less harsh than those proposed by Frank Field.

[Northernhousewife]

Sorry, that was supposed to say 'Tony Makara'.
As for all the doom mongers, please note that if Cameron's star continues to rise against Brown, he is not the problem if our ratings fall. The 'fault' lies elsewhere. In this instance, there has been a LibDem bounce as opposed to a Clegg bounce. Go and read Anthony Wells. Clegg's personal rating are level with Brown's [similiar to Ming's and on a parr with Blair at his lowest]. And that is if the public know who he is. The contest has put them in the news generally, but in itself has not given the new leader public recognition.It is still an empty bounce which has not yet crystalised.

[Sean Fear]

IMHO, the Conservatives' proposals on welfare reform will go down pretty well with the average voter in a marginal seat. Broadly speaking, the people who derive most of their income from welfare tend not to vote (if they're registered in the first place), and tend to be disproportionately concentrated in safe Labour constituencies.

Populus tends to be the least favourable pollster for the Conservatives (in November they had us 1% behind Labour when everyone else had us ahead) so in all likelihood, a 4% lead with Populus would equate to a 7-8% lead with ICM and Yougov.

[christina speight]

This poll is one conducted in limbo with Brown's ratings steadily declining but his party steady at a very low level. This is not logical in the long-term for if Brown were to be leading his party in an election the two measures would march in step. The public are clearly hedging their bets right now in the absence of an election!

It is typical of Brown that on the very day that he trumpets his health screening proposals (without providing either the funds or the doctors to carry them out) a separate inconspicuous report on page 4 of the Telegraph reveals that screening for cervical cancer for women aged 20-24 in England was withdrawn in 2004! Government by 'spin' indeed.

[fedup fenman]

WE MAY ALL SPECULATE AND PONTIFICATE ABOUT WHO'S RIGHT AND WHO'S WRONG BUT THE PLAIN FACT IS THIS COUNTRY IS ON A DOWNWARD SPIRAL OF DEBT AND DISILLUSION. I HAVE WORKED SOMETHING LIKE 60-80 HOURS PER WEEK FOR THE LAST 20 YEARS TO TRY AND GROW A SMALL BUSINESS. JUST WHEN YOU THINK THAT THINGS MAY BE PICKING UP, SOME " GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE " COMES ALONG AND SCREWS YOU FURTHER.
PEOPLE HAVE LAMBASTED AND VILIFIED THE THATCHER YEARS BUT MY GOD IF YOU WERE PREPARED TO GET OFF YOUR BACKSIDE AND STRIVE THERE WAS HOPE AND PROSPECT AT THE END OF IT.NOW ALL WE DO AS INDUSTRIOUS HARDWORKING CTIZENS IS FUND ZEALOTS IN BRUSSELS AND A STATE WHOSE LILY -LIVERED POLICIES MERELY ENCOURAGE MORE IMMIGRANTS FROM THE EU. I ACCEPT THAT SOME DO UNDERTAKE JOBS WHICH INDIGENOUS PEOPLE WILL NOT DO BUT FOR BROWN ET AL TO SAY THAT THESE PEOPLE ADD TO LOCAL ECONOMIES BY SPENDING THEIR INCOMES HERE IS CRASS IN THE EXTREME. HERE IN EAST ANGLIA WE HAVE A HUGE INFLUX FROM EASTERN EUROPE.I HAVE TO SAY THAT THE HUGE MAJORITY OF THESE INDIVIDUALS LIVE AS FRUGALLY AS POSSIBLE AND SEND MOST OF THEIR WAGES BACK TO THEIR NATIVE COUNTRIES-- NOT SUPPOSITION BUT FACT.
UNTIL WE HAVE A MORE ROBUST GOVERNMENT WHO DOES NOT BOTTLE OUT OF ITS RESPONSIBILITIES THEN THIS SITUATION WILL PREVAIL.

[Alex Swanson]

Labour "get away with it" because they are not socialist - nor is the Conservative leadership - as you imply.

I didn't say "socialist" - although Labour's "targets" are spookily like Soviet "norms" and are having exactly the effect they had in the USSR.

And in fact the Tory leadership isn't scaremongering. Quite the opposite. The last two years of so-called detoxification have been based on nothing other than the loud acceptance of left-wing ideology. That's the problem.

[Sally Roberts]

Ooo dear "Fedup Fenman" - I know you're fed up but looking at your post all in caps made my eyes water!!!!
On a general note - I think this poll is not unexpected. We knew there would be a "Clegg bounce" and there has been - but it is smaller than I envisaged. Labour's position is pretty disastrous for them I think and I am certainly not disheartened.

[Joe James Broughton]

Ouch....CAP locks on.
E-shouting.
But I agree with some of the points.

[Cleo]

Clegg will be a more difficult opponent than Ming was.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Really Cleo,why?

[Joe James Broughton]

It could be a residual Cable effect, and when more people realise who the vacuous leader of the Lib Dems is they will go down (as one of the Xmas polls showed).

But - we have been a little reliant on gaffs and scandal headlines. This could have been revealed by this poll and the two narrower leads over Xmas when the political temperature drops. There is good policy work being done, but I don't think we get it across enough.

[Yet Another Anon]

Clegg will be a more difficult opponent than Ming was.
During Menzies Campbell's leadership, the Liberal Democrats were still in the news a lot, since the leadership election things have gone very quiet - where are the Liberal Democrats? Without the oxygen of publicity they will struggle to hold their support.