YouGov's perfect Christmas gift for David Cameron

45%. 45%. 45%!

It may not last but it's good to see that voter antipathy to the Conservative brand is in serious retreat.

YouGov also finds that Gordon Brown's approval rating has slumped to -26%.  It was -16% last month.

8.45am, 16 December: The Sunday Times has some additional interesting data from its YouGov poll:

• "The Tories now enjoy a 20-point lead among female voters, compared with 6 points among men."
• "At the height of the Brown “honeymoon”, in August, the prime minister had a net approval rating of 48%, the difference between those saying he was doing a good job and those saying he was doing badly. In October, when he was agonising over whether to call an early election, his approval rating was still a healthy 30%. But it dropped to minus 10% last month and is down to minus 26% this month... While David Cameron has a positive personal rating of 20%, Brown’s is now only just above the lowest point reached by Tony Blair – minus 34% in April 2006, at the height of the cash for honours scandal."
• "By a margin of 45% to 12%, people think Brown is less competent than Blair was, though by a small margin, 26% to 23%, they think he is more honest and truthful."

Comments

[Andy P]

So is this with or without Yorkshire?

[John from Yorkshire]

blip?

[Tony Makara]

I can't possibly see what Labour can do to claw this back. Being the government is highly likely that they may even sink further in popularity. The Conservative party must now continue to keep a high profile. A government-in-waiting is the image that must be portrayed. Great news.

[Traditional Tory - Radical Tory - Moral Minority etc]

45%?
Is that all?
At this stage of the parliament the Tories should be on 103% by now.
CAMERON MUST GO!

[Paul D]

Tony, while hopefully this government is in terminal decline, we have to make sure we seem the natural alternative. That involves more visibility from the Shadow Cabinet, rather than relying on Cameron and Osborne to shoulder the entire responsibility

[Alan S]

This would produce a Cameron majority of 102 according to ElectoralCalculus.co.uk on a uniform swing.

[Votedave]

'Tis the season to be jolly. A 13% lead too!

I'm just hoping the LibDems will attract more Labour supporters than Tory supporters when they get their inevitable leader bounce.

[Paul 'The Machine' Seery]

GREAT NEWS!

Now lets keep the momemtum going. I have said this once but it is now up to ever member of this great political organisation to get out there when able to and promote to the British public a new direction....

A CONSERVATIVE DIRECTION!

[activist]

Joy. Joy! Congratulations on your scoop Tim. And rofl, "Tradtional Tory..Moral Minority etc" I imagine they'll be pretty quiet, they do a good impression of McCavity when the hot poll news rolls in.

Tories; be aware that we can't keep it this high forever so next polls will be down, maybe subtantially. But SO WHAT. A win's a win and tonight there is only one appropriate response and it is "Congratulations Mr. Cameron and team".

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

I congratulate David Cameron, the Shadow Cabinet and the Tory Party.
A 13% lead is really impressive. An inspiration to Conservatives in opposition everywhere throughout the country.
Now it's just the business of consolidating the support.

[David]

Steady as she goes, boys, steady as she goes.

[Man in a Shed]

A this is before the damage of Brown's handing of the economy really bites people.

the question has to be will there be a New Labour coup to replace Brown with the gap year student ?

[Philip]

Great news. Still much work to do, and as far as the Lib Dems under a new leader are concerned, perhaps David Cameron needs to communicate our substantive policy programme more, and emphasise that only we can form an alternative government to Labour. We could point out that the Lib Dems' soft polices on crime and drugs etc and their EU-enthusiasm are so out of touch with the instincts of ordinary voters.

[Jamesq]

Merry Christmas David! Sorry they couldn't wrap the present up though!

[Sam R]

Rejoice! Rejoice!
Now close to Lab. plus Lib. Dem. combined.
Next target: Equal or better those two combined in the CH poll of polls.
If I were santa I would steer clear of no. 10s chimney this year - the resident might not wish to be disturbed!

[James Burdett]

I'm impressed, very impressed. The next election was always going to be more open than any since 1992. I think the polls are clearly showing that the electorate are toying with the idea of a change of government. Let us be clear though that these good polls can change into less good ones and the only course that we can plot is to carry on regardless. If polls are good then we keep plugging away, if polls are less good we keep plugging away. We mustn't get carried away with ourselves, the election is now a long long way off!

[Matt Wright]

Really great news.

[Bruce]

will there be a New Labour coup to replace Brown with the gap year student ?

I thought that is the Tory plan - for David Cameron to be the next prime minister?

Oh - I get it - you're referring to David Miliband. Yes, he is a bit young, isn't he?

A couple of facts, though. Miliband is older than Cameron, and he has 5 years ministerial experience (which is 5 years more than Cameron has), including 3 in cabinet.

The "boy Miliband" argument is weak when your own leader is conspicuously lacking in experience of anything much. So enough of the childish jibes. Thanks.

Congratulations on a good poll.

[Votedave]

Bruce,
Of course Tony Blair had no ministerial experience whatsoever on 1st May 1997 - and he lasted for ten years. :)

[Bruce]

The fact that Tony Blair had no ministerial experience whatsoever on 1st May 1997 does not reassure me - for a start, it relies on the assumption he was a good prime minister.

In fact, Blair's example only reinforces my point: the track record of inexperienced prime ministers is not good. Blair made some terrible blunders which he might have avoided if he'd had a few years' experience lower down the ladder. He certainly wasted a lot of time on the learning curve, at our expense since he was supposed to be running the country.

[Ted]

Pitt the Younger did a pretty good job with two years experience as an MP; Brown is doing a terrible job despite a decade in a very senior office, preceded by a decade in the Shadow Cabinet.

[Edison Smith]

Crystal Palace 2 Sheffield Wednesday 1
Conservatives 45 Labour 32

Well jingle my jangles, I really do feel like the fat kid who got all the cake this evening!

Merry Christmas one and all.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Edward Heath had a fair share of experience prior to becoming Prime Minister, but quite few people would view him as an especially succesfull Prime Minister.

[Matt Wright]

The old saying about "1 years experience 10 times" is relevant to Brown. Well done Cameron, keep up the good work,

Matt

[Saly]

Steady as she goes boys? David @ 20.58

Have you noticed how many female Conservative MPs there will be after the next election?

Steady as you go girls, steady as you go.

[Tony Makara]

Do struggling Labour now sack the manager and cull the 'B' team?

Paul D, I agree that the shadow cabinet now need to be more visible. This is the time to press home the advantage that has opened up. Its great that the year is ending on such a positive note after the awful and unfair abuse that David Cameron suffered during the Brown bounce.

[Moral minority]

It's a blip. The Cameroons haven't been tested yet - Christmas will get in the way and Labour will be saved from scandal headlines.
And Clegg is just around the corner - he's wonderful.

[Jacob]

"And Clegg is just around the corner - he's wonderful."

Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh....

[Tony Makara]

Buckinghamshire Tory, I think Ted could not have governed at a more difficult time. The 1970s in my opinion were the most interesting period of post-war politics, both here at home and internationally. It was the decade when the left made a serious attempt to subvert democracy and was eventually beaten back in the 1980s, but not after a very hard fight.

[Yet Another Anon]

I can't possibly see what Labour can do to claw this back.
It is far from unusual for the official opposition to be aparently well ahead and still lose. Clement Attlee, Alec Douglas-Home, Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher, John Major and Tony Blair all led administrations written off that made substantial recoveries and won a following General Election or didn't lose anything like as spectacularily as had been believed to be likely,

In 1986 the Conservative Government was in severe difficulties over the Westland Affair, in 2004 it was being said by the media that a Hung Parliament was almost a certainty (does that sound familiar - it's been a frequent cry of the media in the 1970s, 1980s and since 2003).

I recall Labour getting 22% of the Popular Vote in the 2004 European Elections, the Local Elections that year weren't much better for them and yet they got 35.2% of the Popular Vote in the following General Election. I also remember Labour getting 42% of the vote compared for 34% for the Conservatives in the 1989 European Elections - if the Conservatives get 45% in next years Local Elections and Labour get 30% or less then that would be a sign that Labour were going to have severe difficulty winning a majority in the following General Election with the probability being a Conservative led government, the likliehood though is that in 2008 the Liberal Democrats will get slaughtered in the Local Elections with Labour maybe even slightly improving it's position, I expect the Conservatives will make gains, there's no point getting carried away by opinion poll figures on voting intention whatever they say because there are so many factors that can cause variance with the actual result of a General Election.

It's still 1.5 years to the next General Election.

And Clegg is just around the corner - he's wonderful.
Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg are a couple of cardboard cutouts - Tweedle Lib Dem and Tweedle Lib Dum, I doubt they will have any more impact than Menzies Campbell did, the Liberal Democrats have lost a lot of the issues that were benefiting them since 2003, there isn't a lot of desire in the general public for giving more rights to terrorists and yobs and the Iraq War is diminishing as an issue by the day.

Conservative policy though remains fuzzy and vague, tending to the timid - there has been very little room left for pursuing different fiscal policies from the government because of the commitment to match Labour's Control Total for 3 years.

[Andrew James]

I remember celebrating figures like 34% under Hague/IDS/Howard when we might have been only 3 points behind. We're 13 points ahead now and polling 45%. I cannot help but get excited.

UK Elect produces a rather splendid majority of 106, including gains in Derby North and Crewe & Nantwich.

The Lib Dems are still not producing a recovery, and the excellent performance (comparitively) of Vince Cable will almost certainly overshadow his successor.

Labour are by no means out of the woods - there are so many external and internal investigations going on into the donations scandal that surely one of them will have unsavoury conclusions for those at the top of the Party. Northern Rock still has plenty of potential. Ms. Smith may have more to reveal in the Home Office. Des Browne, anyone?

Of course we should wait for more polls to confirm this, but for the moment, I'm going to pour something marvellous into a large glass and toast this brilliance.

[Joe James Broughton]

A good poll. Well done.
Local council by-elections are generally good too.

BTW, do we have a Home Office anymore, or a jumped up HR department that's completely out if it's depth?

[Moral minority]

Yet gain, we have a Lib Dem troll pretending to be me. I have just returned from holiday to find this impersonator pretending to be me, again, with a similar "Clegg is wonderful post".

The last time that it happened, Joe James Broughton posted a comment. He has posted again on this thread. I can only assume that he is a Lib Tem troll posing as a Conservative. What a sad plonker!!

For the record, I am delighted that the Conservatives are ahead in the polls after abandoning green taxes and similar vote-losing policies. Perhaps silly little boys like "activist" will shut their puerile little mouths!

[Tapestry]

Thinking of voting Labour?

Try calling the Police, going to a doctor, getting your kids educated, getting your council to control local gangs breaking planning laws....no one's interested in you any more. It's all about them and their piorities.

Labour's hallmark is social disaster. Why only 6% of men have noticed is probably becasuse they're the ones picking up the fat council salaries, while the women are the ones finding that government services no longer function.

[Richard]

Great news but please don't let the party leadership slip back into 'compassionate conservatism'.

The turn around only began when real Conservative policies were announced at the party conference. Let's never hear again any more about taxes on supermarket car parks.

[Jake]

" 45%?
Is that all?
At this stage of the parliament the Tories should be on 103% by now.

CAMERON MUST "

declare for an English Parliament with in a federal British Union

and he will scoop 1003%

[Yet Another Anon]

The devolution settlement is going to be a big issue at the next General Election for all three main parties and other parties too - the issue of the Barnet formula, of giving more a bit more devolution for Scotland and moving Ulster and Wales onto having similar powers, and to elected devolved parliaments inside England outside the GLA and extending GLA powers - it is in the interests of all 3 parties from the point of view of support for them in proposing a balanced Federal settlement inside the UK.

If for example David Cameron was to become PM, but to preside over some kind of continuing imbalance - which might have involved addressing the balance between Scotland, Wales, England and Ulster in devolution, but perhaps left an imbalance inside England as an English Parliament as a solution or an English Grand Committee still leaves the GLA area with more devolved powers than the rest of England, which could cause resentment. Resentment about the balance leads to calls for breaking the Union or campaigns for new settlements differently imbalanced.

[Dale]

"The devolution settlement is going to be a big issue at the next General Election"

No it wont be.

[Graham D'Amiral]

Fantastic poll, we've waited along time to see this Labour Government fall apart so it would be remiss of us not to enjoy it now it is so clearly happening.

[David Belchamber]

Wonderful news indeed but beware hubris; "a week is a long time etc" and "Events, dear boy, events".

Let the conservative party now work its collective socks off to really justify this disparity. As has been mentioned above, let us see more and more of the shadow cabinet, let DC cultivate gravitas, let us hear more about localism, education, tax and the NHS.

Above all demonstrate to us that the tories will manage things more competently, transparently and honestly than this shambolic lot.

[Richard Tracey]

The poll is looking good in London, the next election test in May 2008. Boris Johnson has a strong chance of clearing out Livingstone.

[Richard Tracey]

The poll is looking good in London, the next election test in May 2008. Boris Johnson has a strong chance of clearing out Livingstone.

[Moral minority]

According to Yougov, Boris is several points behind Ken Livingstone. Livingstone does not carry the Blair and Brown baggage and will be tougher to beat.

Peter Oborne wrote in the Mail (see yestersay's link) that David Cameron is tearing his hair out over Boris's laziness. He also reported that Boris would not listen to George Osborne's advice. He made the perceptive comment that a Boris defeat could cost Cameron the next general election.

Oborne also pointed out that Boris can find time for paid television and media work. Perhaps Boris does not want to be Mayor because he will have to give up his lucrative outside interests. There is no sign that he is hungry for Mayoral office. So Richard Tracey is indulging in wishful thinking unless Boris changes his lazy and complacent attitude.

Posted by the REAL Moral minority, not the Clegg loving impersonator above.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Tony Makara, you are probably right. Heath didn't have a easy job governing the country in the early 1970s. Some of the later prime ministers (like Major, Blair and Brown) problably couldn't have handled the situation any better than he did.

However, my point is that he didn't do such a great job, despite his experience. Margaret Thatcher had less experience when she took office (and the country was just as difficult to govern), but did a great job.

[Bruce]

Yes, Margaret Thatcher had less experience than Ted Heath when she took office, but that's not the point. She had at least seen the inside of a red box.

My point was: when David Cameron becomes prime minister he will join Tony Blair and Ramsay MacDonald as the only prime ministers in the last couple of hundred years who had NO prior ministerial experience whatsoever. Neither is a great precedent, surely?

[Bexie]

Bruce,

he will have the sage experience of many conservatives who have, and no doubt the advice of John Major who did win one election.

[Oscar Miller]

This poll is excellent news, but of course the BBC aren't letting on. Andrew 'best friend of Gordon' Marr did his best to undermine DC on R4s Start the Week discussing this Thursday's profile of Cameron by Michael Cockerell (Dave Cameron's Incredible Journey). It was a real hatchet job, straight out of Labour party HQ, starting with a link about 'spin' and going on from there. Cockerell shot his film before the bottled election and so it is now completely out of date. The BBC is trying to take us back to Brown's halcyon summer days and Dave's darkest hour. Full of references to 'call me Dave' and how DC is just a PR man and (naturally) no mention of all the policies the Labour party are now so eager to nick. Here are some edited highlights from the Radio Times blurb:
Love him or loathe him (and few seem to love him), getting a sneak peek behind Cameron's well-polished bike-riding, hug-a-hoodie, "I love you, Babe" public facade is a tempting prospect. Even if, in practice, Cameron is too clever to let his guard down much. The blurb ends: Then there are the wonderfully partisan comments of other Tories, both pro and anti [but naturally they aren't going to print anything pro]. Says Kelvin MacKenzie flatly, "The guy's a dud!" Written by one aptly named David Butcher. I reckon 2008 is going to see a massive battle for DCs character and integrity - with Labour/Brownite media spin machine going all out to destroy him. Breaking the myths about Gordon Brown will be essential to keep at 45% and above, but even more important will be breaking the negative myths about DC and ensuring that his true qualities are seen and believed.