Tories 12% ahead in new YouGov survey

The Tories have a 12% lead over Labour in the latest YouGov poll, this time for The Telegraph.

We've added Nick Clegg to the poll graphic although much of YouGov's survey was conducted before his narrow victory had been confirmed.  The LibDems would have benefited from their leadership election 'being in the news', however, throughout the Monday to Wednesday period when this poll was 'in the field'.

The poll finds that the Conservatives now have a narrow 34% to 31% advantage on which party is best trusted to manage Britain's economy.  The Tories faced a 49% to 27% disadvantage at the last General Election.

YouGov also identifies a clear majority of voters (58%) who are "inclined to disapprove" of Jacqui Smith's decision to phase in the police pay award.  22% are inclined to approve.

Comments

[David]

As a point, it's probably more accurate to compare with the last Telegraph survey, not the last YouGov survey.

[Letters From A Tory]

How the mighty have fallen. Gordon Brown must be getting more nervous that his MPs are talking behind closed doors about whether to get rid of him or not. If they are going to oust him, it has to be sooner rather than later. A few top level resignations or reshuffles won't save him now.

[David]

Sorry, that should be "the last YouGov Telegraph survey, not just the last YouGov survey."

[Helen]

Is there a mechanism in the Labour Party whereby sitting Prime Ministers can be ousted? I don't believe there is but does anyone else know better?

[Moral minority]

This poll is within the margin of error of the last. All it does is to confim that the Tories are in the low 40s, Labour in the low 30s and the LD in the mid-teens. The poll of polls is a reasonable guide - a steady lead of around 10% or so. I am more concerned about Boris trailing Red Ken.

[Joe James Broughton]

Yes.....it's bound to go up and up a bit.
I was a bit worried I'd see a load of posts on here demanding that every single poll now shows 45+.

Not a good Xmas for Gordon Brown...he must be wondering how to fight back from this. Personally I think he's someone who likes to look strong by surrounding himself with weak people.
That's totally wrong - the government should always be as strong as possible. Mrs Thatcher understood that.

There is a new design for a Routemaster bus in London - that would be popular.

[Joe James Broughton]

I meant to say "up and down a bit"

[SamBury]

Joe James Broughton - Please could you provide me with information about the new design for Routemaster.

[Joe James Broughton]

Here it is (new Routemaster proposal)
You may need to copy the link.
TfL would need to take it up though - at the moment they are trotting out their old line.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23428597-details/Here+comes+the+eco-friendly+Routemaster/article.do

I also think we should make contingency plans
to re-instate a few of the old ones (if they can be purchased) because it will take time to build a new bus, and people may not believe it if nothing appears in 4 years.

[John Leonard]

I agree with Joe James Broughton its too early to be demanding consistent poll rating of 45%. Such demands really pander to the transparent claims of Labour that they are still going to win. On this result that would be unlikely.

If you look at the poll of polls the Conservative rating is still on an upward trend and Labours downward. The voters are still responding to the Conservative message and Labour's failure.

Furthermore, in three months the Conservative rating has moved solidly upwards by 5 points or more. It is important this continues. The support base looks as if it is now over 40%.

In addition there is still plenty of time to increase the ratings and no doubt there will be a major effort in the months before the election (now ever more likely to be 2010 if these ratings remain) that should push the results up further.

As such this is a very satisfactory poll but as George Osbourne points out there is still a lot to do before the next election.

[Tony Makara]

Letters From A Tory, yes, Gordon Brown can't even reshuffle because he is already playing the reserve team according top Mr Blair. What can Brown do? Ruth Kelly as Chancellor, Yvette Cooper as home secretary? No wonder Brown talks about a cabinet of all the talents, he needs to get others in on loan to strengthen the quality of his team. Still, I suppose David Blunkett could make yet another comeback, there has been talk of this! How low can they go?

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Considering the mess we were in during this summer, 43% is a good way to end this year. Does anyone know how many PMs this would give us on a uniform swing?

[Matthew]

As nice as it is to be ahead in the polls, am I the only one who finds it mildly irritating that after every positive/negative story there is a poll to say how much it impacted on public opinion. Am I the only who thinks that the mass of polls is just another example of our Big Brother, CCTV culture, where we are obsessed with knowing what people are thinking, what they are doing, what they are planning on doing. Our obsession with polls and scores is exactly the kind of obsession that leads to empty policy and soundbites, the kind of politics that we end up complaining about. My message to ConservativeHome is this: please stop your emphasis on polls all the time (though of course I understand why you publish them... sadly).

[Comstock]

(Just discovered I've got broadband in my new house.....bit of a bonus that :) )

"Considering the mess we were in during this summer, 43% is a good way to end this year. Does anyone know how many PMs, this would give us on a uniform swing?

One. How many do you want?

:p

If you meant MPs, electoral calculus says 389, with a overall majority of 128.

Just a slightly bad poll for Labour, then.

[Comstock]

Apologies, 361 with a majority of 72.

Still a bad poll for Labour, obviously

[anyone but brown]

Brown has been caught lying on the state of the economy. Watch his poll ratings slide further when the public realise how bad things really are.....

Grim data undermine Brown's claims

The Times 21/12/2007

Official figures are showing a very different economic picture from the one painted by the Prime Minister and the Chancellor

Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

Claims by Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling this week that the economy is fundamentally sound and well placed to ride out worsening world conditions were badly undermined yesterday by a spate of bleak official figures.

City economists lined up to sound warnings that the latest grim economic news suggested that Britain's economy is badly exposed to a global downturn and “dangerously unbalanced”.

In a double blow to an increasingly embattled Chancellor, the slew of worrying data showed the Government's finances in the red to a record extent last month, and the country as a whole living far beyond its means, with another record-breaking deficit on the balance of payments.

“The latest flurry of UK data painted a distinctly ugly picture of a dangerously unbalanced economy, supporting our view that the coming slowdown will be a prolonged and potentially painful period of adjustment,” said Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3080574.ece

[Tony Makara]

Why isn't more done to expose Labour's blatant lies over the economy? Take this banner headline from the Labour party website proclaiming 'Full Employment' the Conservative party should be kicking up a fuss about this loudly across all media. Full employment is a lie. In fact youth unemployment is up 20%. Why are Labour allowed to get away with lying to the British people in saying we have full employment.

http://www.labour.org.uk/britain_in_the_global_economy

[Goldie]

There is absolutely zero change that Brown would be removed by his party. Nada, nip, zilch.

The levers of powers don't work that way in the Labour party and with this character it's never going to happen.

Labour knows that the only way to get rid of Brown will be at the next GE

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Comstock, thank you very much for the information, and yes, I meant MPs, not PMs.

[Votedave]

Another excellent poll result for us.
There may be some sort of inevitable Clegg Bounce, but it will not last long and so we should hold our nerve and certainly not panic.
I personally don't like this concept of uniform swings to predict elections. The chances are that the swings will be larger and better for us in the marginal seats.

[Yet Another Anon]

Is there a mechanism in the Labour Party whereby sitting Prime Ministers can be ousted?
The rules are the same whether the Labour Party is in government or not, to stand as a candidate if there is a vacancy requires nominations from 12.5% of MPs, if the incumbent has not announced their resignation or died then it is a higher percentage - 20% if I remember quietly, in other words at least 71 MPs. There is a small element that is always gunning for the leader, the Labour Party historically has been very reluctant to remove incumbents and have not done so since 1931, Ramsay MacDonald was removed as leader when he formed the National Government because he was seen as havng betrayed the Labour movement and was expelled from the party.

Most Labour MPs are aware that governments get into difficulties in mid-term.