Satisfied with David Cameron

94% of members are satisfied with David Cameron in ConservativeHome's latest survey of grassroots opinion.  'The bounceback' that took place last month has strengthened further.  Just 6% of members are now dissatisfied with the Conservative leader.  Good opinion polls, Labour woes and the promise of more traditional Conservative fare (on tax, education and prisons) are all likely to be contributory factors.

90% of members think it "likely" that David Cameron will be Prime Minister after the next General Election, 7% think it "unlikely" and just over 2% don't know.  Two months ago - before Chicken Saturday - just 29% expected Mr Cameron to make it to Downing Street at the next Election.

On a personal note I've certainly warmed to David Cameron considerably and for a combination of reasons but one stands out...

We all have issues that really matter to us.  The special relationship matters disproportionately to me.  I've dedicated a blog to it (!) and, last week, wrote for The Weekly Standard about 'the special relationship within the special relationship' - the Tory-GOP relationship.  I was greatly encouraged by the commitment to transatlantic understanding that the Tory leader signalled in his speech to Brookings. 

Some have dismissed last week's thirty minute Bush-Cameron meeting as too trivial, too short to be significant.  That misses two points: (1) Cameron also met Rice, the Treasury Secretary, the head of the World Bank, the Mayor of New York, Colin Powell, Senator Chuck Hagel etc; (2) My guess is that there'll be a lot more contact from now on at the level of officials and elected representatives... a relationship between the GOP and the Conservatives has started up again... the ice has thawed.  I hope that the party will be talking to the Democrats, too.  This all matters because America is the most important nation in the world.  UK-US bilateralism is not just vital for British economic interests (although it most certainly is) - American leadership is vital for meeting nearly every security, environmental and free trade objective.

Be reassured readers that I'm not a 100% Cameroon.  I'm still not sure we have the policies to match the scale of Britain's problems... I'm disappointed with yesterday's statement on state funding... The revival of the A-list is depressing... But: things are definitely going in the right direction.  94% of you appear to agree! 

Comments

[Paul D]

"a relationship between the GOP and the Republicans has started up again"

err... am I the first to spot the deliberate mistake here?

[Editor]

oops! I'll correct that now Paul D!

[JR]

I'm not in the slightest bit reassured that you're not 100% Cameroon. If you want us to win, you should be.

[carol42]

I too was very uncertain about Cameron and supported David Davis.I thought that as were all so sick of Blair that we would need a contrast. I did not really think the Party would choose Gordon Brown, they must have known what his personality was like, he had given enough evidence of it over the vendetta he waged against, like him or not, their most successful leader ever and so many other defects too long to list. However what changed my mind was when Cameron was being battered over the summer and grotesque Gordon was riding high being praised for, to me, doing what any PM would have done and not forgetting that at least two of the problems could be laid at his door, foot and mouth and floods, partly lack of funds from one Gordon Brown. Cameron did not panic although some of the Party and press did. I greatly admired the way he refused to give up and came back with a bang and that shows real character. Compare with Brown skulking from everyone, his excuse for several incidents of law breaking; he knew nothing while letting everyone else take the blame, how cowardly and how very typical. I am just depressed that we will have to put up with him for so long and how much more damage this incompetent Government will do. I think Cameron will have a much worse mess to clear up than Thatcher did in 1979 and look how long that took.

[David Belchamber]

Yes, my thoughts - and not for the first time - exactly mirror yours, Editor. I was sufficiently insensed by Cameron's remarks at the time on grammar schools to cancel my membership but the efforts that the tories have made since the conference have been astoundingly successful. I have to say that I thought they were being a bit soft until then.

Now however they are really the only show in town. Brown has been exposed for the pathetic bully that he is and can hardly restore his reputation after all the mockery of the past few weeks.

We have seen a lot more of many shadowy shadow ministers and they are good, much better on the whole than their government counterparts.

I was glad to hear that an implementation unit has been set up; would you, Editor, care to initiate a discussion on what ConHome believes they should put on their "to do" list?

[David]

Good to hear. I voted for Cameron, and have had my doubts in the past. But what he was shown beyond a doubt is how much more Prime Ministerial he is than Brown, and possibly more than Blair. I've been impressed by his ability to think in the long-term, his refusal to rush into quick decisions. He has looked at problems, like education, as a grand ideas, and not as a series of targets that can be micro-managed. I also find him much more genuine than I thought I would. I don't get the impression that he's acting that I used to get so often with Blair. Keep up the good work, DC.

[Editor]

I only meant JR in the sense that ConservativeHome isn't about to become Tory Pravda because of my increased enthusiasm for DC. Sorry if that disappoints you! I'm 100% committed to us winning the next election - I just happen to believe that intelligent scrutiny of the project can help secure that...

[Tony Makara]

The thing I like about David Cameron is that he goes into a deep analysis of problems, isolates cause and comes up with viable solutions. If you listen to his speeches carefully there is a real dissection of issues. David Cameron understands that there is never one single cause to a problem or one big fix solution. His analytical approach will be vital if we are going to tackle complex problems like social breakdown, welfare reform and education.

[Richard Calhoun]

I find it incredible that so many Tory members were criticising Cameron unreasonably prior to the Party Conference and now suddenly what's changed??

Certainly not Cameron's policies!!

Come on let's get a grip, remember what we had before and read Cameron's words instead of criticising for the sake of it.

[Votedave]

I have backed David Cameron 100% right from the very start of his leadership campaign and still do, hence the name I use and my regular contributions to Webcameron, which I would encourage everyone here to visit and make a contribution to its forums.

The thing I like about DC is that he looks like a man of the future, and has extended our support and his scope of issues much further than Hague, IDS and Howard ever could. He has also brought the party to the moderate centre-right, which is the logical thing to do after three election defeats. The 94% approval rating has proved him right after the awful summer we had, that it pays to be patient and think out your policies in the long term - which is what he did very successfully at party conference.
DC for PM!

[Tony Makara]

Votedave, yes, more people should use webcameron and bring a different level of debate. Its currently difficult to get a serious and temperate debate going there sometimes. On the subject of David Cameron being a man for the future I agree completely. His whole approach is different from the clucking 20th century style of big-fix politics. As David Cameron so often points out, the small solutions are often the most effective. Trusting in people rather than the faceless state. Any solution to social problems certainly has to come from the people and not government.

[Drusilla]

I only meant JR in the sense that ConservativeHome isn't about to become Tory Pravda because of my increased enthusiasm for DC.

So, esteemed Editor, no more covering-up of polling data just to boost our boy Dave? Errr ... actually it wasn't much better here when you weren't a fully signed-up Cameroon.

[passing leftie]

It shows that the membership of this forum is as fickle, if not more fickle than the electorate at large.

[John Leonard]

Tim,

I agree fully with your comments.

DC and the front bench have done well over the last few weeks and these results reflect that.

I think the concepts of localism and aspiration are beginning to take hold and make a stark contrast to Brown's oppressive statist authoritarianism.

In developing policy further they must be seen to be consistent in applying these concepts and not be perceived to do so only when it suits them.

Two areas in particular come to mind where there is a great risk of this, in reframing our democracy for 21st centruy Britain and taking the Health Service (particularly public health) forward.

[Tanuki]

It's good to see that our efforts to maintain a positive relationship with the US administration are viewed in a positive light.

For me though the jury is still out on "David Cameron's Conservatives" - for I am seeing precious little of the low-tax small-state get-government-off-peoples'-backs attitude which we really should be pushing. Brown has definitely left the door unlocked here - all it takes is a good shove: overtaxed families and over=regulated businesses would fall in behind us in droves if we promised to 'roll back the State'.

[ACT]

As Bob Marshall-Andrews said in similar circumstances, when Blair's first poll as PM gave him an approval rating of 94% too - "6% hmmn? It's a start . . ." But keeping doing the Lord's work ConHome - keep on publishing the Good News, and 'helpfully' taking it upon yourself to keep from us news we're not grown up enough to be able to handle (cf. that infamous eve of Conference poll you so shyly kept to yourself and sold to no one).

[Josh]

This boom is unquestionably a result of Cammy be way ahead and in fact further ahead than he was prior to the handover and the fact that the Tory agenda is now more balanced.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I congratulate David Cameron on achieving the recognition that he now has, he has had to endure a much tougher 'induction' than Blair ever had to, aided of course by the ever compliant media! Blair's relentless, bitchy attempted character assassination, must have been exasperating at times - and of course once more the media joined in. However nowadays Mr. Cameron does seem to get more of a chance to explain his policies - even on the BBC, so that the general public become more familiar with him and begin to see what he is about.

I think the two David's will prove a formidable team, David Davis has the strength and stability needed for the home front, whereas David Cameron, has the charm and friendliness combined with good brain capacity needed to manage in the international arena. I say 'friendliness' because when you see him meeting new people he always seems to be 'interested' in them, which I think is a very important attribute in a world leader! Some people just don't have it.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

Cameron's star has only risen since he swung back to the Centre/Right from the Left. According to the FT he admits that he should be further in the lead after abysmal Labour

Andrew Whatshisname appeared on Question Time last week and, as usual he was thoughly pleased with his efforts on behalf of the Cameroons. Unfortunately, when asked a question on immigration he said that the debate on immigration was "stale" and he appeared to find the status quo affecting mass immigration did not require changing and was fine (we were a country that had always accepted immigrants - numbers didn't appear to matter, aka the EU

The rest of the Consensus Party on the panel agreed with him - with the exception of Nigel Garage (don't bother to ask; I am not a member of UKIP- yet, but thanks to jokers like Andrew Whatsisname I might well be). The Lib/Dim woman, Teather (I was at the end of mine when she finished) was pathetic/in an arrogant self righteous way and even went as far as to tell us that Sharia Law was misunderstood and was merely an ordinary civil code (nothing to do with religion then?)

Vote Tory? What for? Most of us would have agreed with Farage.

[anyone but brown]

I am 100% behind Cameron as he is the ONLY hope we have of ridding our country of the odious Brown and his gang of crooks and spivs.

[clive elliot]

The best thing about Cameron is that he comes over well, where Brown doesn't.

At the last 3 elections it has been the other way round, with Blair coming over well, and the Conservative leader not.

With the extra coverage Cameron will get during the campaign, his personality will tell and the Party will ride high.

And once the public sees that it is a choice between Cameron/Brown, and that there is a real chance of change, they won't be voting Libdem in such large numbers at this will be seen as increasingly irrelevant - like an abstention, really. This will gain the Conservatives many seats, the ones where they are second to Libdem.

If Cameron can keep the momentum going, and if he can decide the agenda, it should go well.

[Tony Makara]

clive elliot, I agree, there is such a gulf between David Cameron and Gordon Brown. Its quite clear that Brown just isn't comfortable with the public accountability that comes from an aggressive questioning media. Gordon Brown would rather stand back, hand down statements, and await the deferential applause. In the lead up to the election that never was I was always 100% confident that David Cameron would make Gordon Brown look sluggish and antiquated in a high-profile three week election campaign. Gordon Brown has no charisma at all, he is a politburo politican. The fast-paced world of modern politics exposes Brown's turgid character.

[Paul, Southampton]

As I have noted before after previous surveys, the approval rating is how many members approve of Cameron and not how many respondents to the survey approve of Cameron. However, I suspect that Cameron's approval rating is a bit higher amongst the non-members as well. He hasn't dropped any balls just recently.

Tim, are you willing to tell us the percentage of all respondents to the survey who approve of Cameron?

[Edison Smith]

Brown is like a grizzled Macbeth figure, paranoid, grumpy and dillusional. The ghost of Tony Blair sits at his cabinet table like Banquo.

He is the shade to Mr Cameron's light. Energetic, youthful, and pragmatic, DC marches off to Washington in statesmanlike, dignified fashion whilst Brown is giving a speech on banning plastic bags. Cameron can advance on Macbeth's castle with intelligent fighters by his side; Gove, Osborne, Herbert, Davis, Hague, IDS to name a few of his captains.

Meanwhile, under siege, Brown grows increasingly neurotic. He tries to micro manage everything. He's up at 4am stalking the corridors, thinking of new intitatives to defend the high hround: Maybe a traffic cones hotline perhaps, or Back to Basics??

What's that coming over the hill? asks Macbeth's page, Edward of Balls.

It's a moving wood of Tory oaks, come to banish Macbeth once and for all...

[Northern Conservative]

In this current flush of support for David Cameron we should remember that Cameron's policies have not changed.
He has been shown up well in comparison with the performance of Gordon Brown.
All Cameron has to do is let Brown and his team continue to assist him!

[Malcolm Dunn]

It's good that most of those who so disliked David Cameron and dominated the comments section of this blog with endlessly repeated attacks on him seem to have disappeared.But I'm sure if Cameron stumbles they'll be back.
Cameron I hope will have learned the lessons of the summer well. I cannot believe we'll have the fiasco of another Grammarsgate when it seemed to me that the overwhelming opinion of the party was against its leader . But should another row like that develope then I trust David will handle it with humility and much more skill than he did then.
There is now a genuine opportunity for us to win the next general election if we work well together we will win. Let's not blow it.

[Michael Rutherford]

Drusilla, I think the temporarily holding back poll data was a very sensible thing and a sign that ConservativeHome is a serious website as opposed to being just a moaning ground for disgruntled Tories.

There would be no benefit at all to releasing figures that more members didn't like DC than did. It would just give Labour some free material, and a negative way to discuss the party conference.

I think that while Cameron's policies have stayed the same, he has seemed a very intelligent and thoughtful politician that has well-grounded policies that are popular where necessary and difficult where necessary. In terms of immigration, he has gone onto the debate without any hints of racism, but gone on it in a thoughtful manner of weighing pros and cons.

I think that in the past couple of months DC has shown himself to be a proper, mature politician as opposed to someone with potential.

[Annabel Herriott]

I have always been 100% behind DC. He is a person who will always be opposed initially, and has had to quietly prove that he has been right all along.
All strength to his elbow say I. I know he can do it. Shame we will have to wait until Almighty Gord's fingers have been prised from the frame of No 10 though!!
I fear we may have worse to come. Brown is one of those people whom "things" happen to. Almost as if the cosmos was gunning for him.(sobs!)

[Tony Makara]

Michael Rutherford, good points on David Cameron and immigration. We have, in effect, been gagged and not allowed to speak openly on this subject because the Liberal/Left would always start playing the race card whenever immigration was mentioned by any well intentioned person concerns over the subject. Thankfully David Cameron has dared-to-dare and has brought the subject out in the open for sensible debate.

Those who continue to claim that being anti-immigration is racist have no case to argue because most of the immigration coming into this country is white European immigration. Only the other day I heard an Asian gentleman bemoaning the fact that his son can't find work yet many east Europeans are coming over and sliding straight into employment. The immigration debate really is about numbers and logistics.

[Gloy Plopwell]

This shows stupendous momentum.

Dontmakemelaugh is a really annoying name, by the way.

[Dale]

"I find it incredible that so many Tory members were criticising Cameron unreasonably prior to the Party Conference and now suddenly what's changed??

Certainly not Cameron's policies!!"

That is because he didn't have any. What has changed is that he no longer takes a cavalier attitude to the grassroots and has dropped all the pathetic gimmicks. He now seems to be a much much stronger figure. I'm not sure many could call him a 'light-weight' anymore.

Had Cameron not have changed his tactics AND the goverment not imploded due to corrupion and incompetence, david cameron would not be leader now and I think we all underestimate how close we came to a 4th landslide defeat. Which David Cameron would not have survived.

[Alex Swanson]

"It's good that most of those who so disliked David Cameron and dominated the comments section of this blog with endlessly repeated attacks on him seem to have disappeared."

It's not a matter of disliking him or mounting "attacks", it's a matter of not agreeing with policies and attitudes. Cameron has shown (a few) signs of improvement and political debate lately has been about Labour's faults.

If he does well, he gets praise. If he does badly, we point that out not in any spirit of malice, but in the hope of bringing about improvement. How else would you want it?

[James Maskell]

I was one of the 6%. As some here have pointed out, Cameron hasnt really changed much at all since before the Conferences. Its because Labour are screwing up constantly that people naturally fall behind Cameron as the opposition. The Lib dems being so rubbish just helps people come to the assumption that Camerons gotta be better, whether they know about his history in the Party or the Parties policies at all...

[Malcolm Dunn]

Alex, have a look at some of the comments sections in August-September you'll see exactly what I meant.Most of those posters have disappeared.As a result the debates on this blog are, in my opinion, of a higher quality now than they were then.

[Sub-Prime Minister Bean]

Where's Traditional Tory when you need him?

I trust he's still down on DC and gunning for Gordon and the Blue Brownites :-)

[activist]

James, didn't you say you left the party? In which case it bolsters the theory that the 6% are not "the grassroots" but a hardcore anti-Cameron brigade, often not Conservatives at all.

David Cameron proved he can hold his nerve under fire. That is why we are where we are today.

[James Maskell]

Yes, activist. The Conservatives are where they are because Brown has screwed up royally in the past few months. Whats changed in the Tories policy wise from say 6 months ago? Nothing.

As for being part of a hardcore anti-Cameron brigade, perhaps theres an element of truth in it. But Id be happy to rejoin the Party and leave that brigade if Cameron was willing to do something to help the traditionalists. The so called red meat that hes given out recently is just a diversion to shut the traditionalists up temporarily. Its not a real concession to balance the policy bias.

[activist]

James - but Cameron has *always* led in the polls, from the time he was elected until now, except for Brown's short honeymoon. The policies you dont like and the attitude you don't like were winning big opinion poll leads out of the gate and normal service was only interrupted for Brown's 'shiny new PM smell' honeymoon.

[Chad Noble]

I've got to say that on one hand, I am not satisfied at all with Cameron due to his support for state funding and deliberate equivocation over a referendum for the eu treaty, but on the other hand, we really are getting to the stage where a trained monkey would do better running the country than Brown, so that clearly reflects well on the opposition.

[Caroline Best]

Hardly big opinion poll leads from the outset activist. That's only just started to happen. Extremely welcome and credit where it's due though. To Cameron for decontaminating the party and making us sound reasonable, to some red meat policies at Conference which appealed to a large cross-section of the country and to Brown and Labour for self-destructing.

But it's still only a recent phenomenon and our poll standing is still too low.

Please don't make the mistake of thinking our poll lead is purely down to Cameron and the touchy feely thinking. It isn't.

[Simon Denis]

Dale and Dontmakemelaugh are spot on. When Cameron retreated from his posturings over grammars and Osborne - in his flat little voice - promised tax cuts - the tory vote solidified. If they now think we're back in the bag and that they can safely pursue the failed, unfair, discriminatory policies of "affirmative action", or wobble over Labour's attempt to use tax money for politics, or bash academic selection EVER again, then they will be down in the polls before you can say Polly Toynbee. And this time, we won't come back. What would be the point? And don't give me all that pseudo managerial guff about turfing out failed governments. Governments fail as the result of failed ideologies. A conservative-labour administration would continue to fail in exactly the same way as our current leaders do. Failure is built into the DNA of socialism. Popularity AND purpose are to be found in a well judged cocktail of Thatcher, Powell and Sir Keith Joseph.

[David C]

People generally are not focusing upon Cameron as much as being against Brown and the government.

Cameron changed, under pressure, towards conservative policies. This helped to reduce antagonism towards him and released core support but he and we should be higher in the polls in the circumstances.

Cameron still comes across as pleasant but having little conviction and spine. He is able to put pressure on Brown interpersonally (this approach could rebound) but he is silent on the key concern for people - immigration and he is still coming across generally as a fence sitter who hasn’t the spine to tackle difficult issues

We need to avoid deluding ourselves with false optimism over the current situation. Brown is working hard in the background on immigration and other issues.

When his plans for these start to percolate through into perceived changes over the next few months (they have already started in relation to immigration), people will be more inclined to think Brown is in fact doing something about the fundamentals which real people care about.

This will encourage the swingers (and disillusioned supporters who are currently giving him a bloody nose) to move back to the ‘conviction politician’ with ‘the experience’ who is ‘a safe bet’ after all

All this self congratulatory complacency may rebound

Lets see some more courage and conviction from Cameron. Other wise lets have more of Davis, Hague etc