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A lot closer than expected. It would have been better for us if Huhne would have won.

Excellent and generous speech from Huhne. Clegg sounds like a Cameron clone. Good news for Brown, bad for Dave.

Can someone remind me of the result when David Cameron won?

I think its a bad result for Brown as he suddenly looks the old, grey, and tired man of UK politics.

Well, we'll have to see what Clegg is made of. He's fought an extremely low profile campaign and put forward no substantive ideas that I'm aware of.
The only pronouncement I can remember Nick Clegg making in recent months is his proposal to allow illegal immigrants an amnesty. Will it come back to haunt him?

Jonathan Sheppard, very interesting point. Gordon Brown will look even more old-hat, if thats possible. Politics shouldn't be about image but if presentation didn't matter the ad men would be out of a job.

Interesting to see it takes under 21,000 to become leader of the Lib Dems. Seems a shockingly low number. Some unsuccessful Parliamentary candidates will have polled more ina single constituency surely?

Clegg is a rubbish public speaker! Bet he doesn't even manage a month of attending weekly meetings at empty town halls!

This is a bad result for the Lib Dems. Clegg's barely got a mandate and virtually half of the voters did not want him! Given the policy differences as well as the personal difficulties between Clegg and Huhne the Lib Dems look to me to be rudderless and divided.

Anon - I don't know the actual numbers but Cameron beat Davis by almost exactly two to one

Clegg just gave a very good speech, rather passionate. Those that think this does not matter are mistaken, Nick Clegg will take a numeber of votes off the Conservatives. I do agree Brown is finsished, will not see 2009 as Prime Minister.

Two lively speeches from Vince Cable and Chris Huhne - and then Clegg. What a bore. He only speaks in vacuous generalities. He sounds like a man who's learnt his lines but doesn't really believe in them. I'd say he's a bit of a dud. And the calamity Clegg tag is going to come back to haunt him.

For the result follow the Conservative 2.45pm link http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/2005/12/the_result.html

Anon:

Cameron polled 67% of the vote (approx 135,000 votes)

Davis obviously approx half that.

http://donalblaney.blogspot.com/2007/12/ex-parrot.html

I don't think we should be quick to write-off Nick Clegg as a party at all. Caroline Spelman is right to continue her mischief making and wedge issues need to be deployed to keep the internal LibDem divisions alive and well. I think Clegg is potentially much more dangerous for Tories than Huhne would have been and than Campbell or even Kennedy were.

"Clegg sounds like a Cameron clone. Good news for Brown, bad for Dave."

Why?

Clegg will be a prisoner of Huhne and Cable. He'll be surrounded by people who think they should be leader and not him.

Good news for us.

Clegg already has "calamity" stuck to him, and frankly he sounds like a Cameron clone that is in no way anywhere as good.

He won't take any votes from us, he really is an idiot.

I rather suspect Donal Blaney may be right.We should not write off Clegg because of his poor campaign and rather vacuous speech today. There must be more to him than this, mustn't there?

This result shows that the Lib Dems are deeply divided and not just into Clegg and Huhne supporters. The fact that the number of votes was well down on 2006 makes me think that a number of far left ex Labour Lib Dems did no bother to vote and could, but could yet stick the knive into a leader who must have got considerably less than 50% if the Lib Dem memberships votes.

Also I suspect the outcome should not matter too much for us. Both Mr Clegg or Mr Huhne would be very unlikely to back us in a hung parliament, and both have distinctly federalist attitudes to the European Union. Moreover both men,like Gordon brown do not think voters should have a say on the EU (cough) Reform Treaty (cough). They are entitled to their views, but I suspect man ex -Tory voters who voted for the Lib Dems in 1997, 2001 and 2005 will not agree with them. We as a party need to stress these points to voters in Conservative-Lib Dem marginals between now and the next election. In other words tell them a vote for a Clegg led Lib Dem Party is a vote for Gordon Brown and Federal EU super-state.

This result shows that the Lib Dems are deeply divided, but I suspect the outcome should not matter too much for us in any case. Both Mr Clegg or Mr Huhne would be very unlikely to back us in a hung parliament, and both have distinctly federalist attitudes to the European Union. Moreover both men,like Gordon brown do not think voters should have a say on the EU 'Reform Treaty'.They are entitled to their views, but I suspect man ex -Tory voters who voted for the Lib Dems in 1997, 2001 and 2005 will not agree with them. We as a party need to stress these points to voters in Conservative-Lib Dem marginals between now and the next election. In other words tell them a vote for a Clegg led Lib Dem Party is a vote for Gordon Brown and a Federal EU super-state.

David, Cameron and Clegg will compete for the same voters - especially in SW London, Hampshire, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall.

Clegg was seen as by Lib Dem activists as the guy who would help them hold onto seats in those areas, i.e. the Lib Dem strongholds where a large proportion of the activists live.

Huhne would have been more attractive to Labour voters that will never vote Tory, e.g. in Newcastle and Liverpool. That will benefit Brown.

Alex Salmond will also benefit as the SNP will pick up even more anti-Labour votes now that Kennedy and Campbell have been ousted. Cameron and Clegg have little appeal north of the border.

Cameron will benefit from Clegg's lack of campaigning skills. Perhaps Cable will be kept on to mentor his fellow Orange Booker.

The other positive outcome is that the Lib Dems are split between the liberals and social democrats - Orange Bookers versus Huhne, Kennedy, Williams etc. There will be a policy debate and possible stalemate, especially on public sector reform.

The recent polls have been irrelevant as the Lib Dems had no Leader. The polls in March and elections in May will tell us much more about our future electoral fortunes.

David, Cameron and Clegg will compete for the same voters - especially in SW London, Hampshire, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall.

Clegg was seen as by Lib Dem activists as the guy who would help them hold onto seats in those areas, i.e. the Lib Dem strongholds where a large proportion of the activists live.

Huhne would have been more attractive to Labour voters that will never vote Tory, e.g. in Newcastle and Liverpool. That will benefit Brown.

Alex Salmond will also benefit as the SNP will pick up even more anti-Labour votes now that Kennedy and Campbell have been ousted. Cameron and Clegg have little appeal north of the border.

Cameron will benefit from Clegg's lack of campaigning skills. Perhaps Cable will be kept on to mentor his fellow Orange Booker.

The other positive outcome is that the Lib Dems are split between the liberals and social democrats - Orange Bookers versus Huhne, Kennedy, Williams etc. There will be a policy debate and possible stalemate, especially on public sector reform.

The recent polls have been irrelevant as the Lib Dems had no Leader. The polls in March and elections in May will tell us much more about our future electoral fortunes.

David, Cameron and Clegg will compete for the same voters - especially in SW London, Hampshire, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall.

Clegg was seen as by Lib Dem activists as the guy who would help them hold onto seats in those areas, i.e. the Lib Dem strongholds where a large proportion of the activists live.

I think Clegg took his time in making it very clear that he is not at all interested in linking up with either the Labour or Conservative Party anytime down the line,in fact he made a snide remark about David Cameron in answer to one question.

He will be/is a puppet of the other two for certain I believe.

It is the Conservative Party that has made a terrible mistake in electing a leader everyone wants to copy

If only we'd gone for sound rightwinger that no one wants to be like


"David, Cameron and Clegg will compete for the same voters - especially in SW London, Hampshire, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall. "

Right, so you are one of those voters. You can either vote for the same thing that has a chance of winning, or the same thing that doesn't. Which would you choose?

We will need to wait a little to see what Clegg does. He has not shown much of a willingness to attack the Govt, more to waste effort attacking us.

There have been rumours that he will try and shift Rennard back to Campaigning and out of being the CEO.

Huhne seemed to be instinctively more of a campaigner, like Rennard, than Clegg is.

If we see off Clegg in GE2010 because of a massive loss of LD seats, then we will have seen the demise of 2 Leaders as Huhne cannot possibly go for a 3rd time in 2010.

The Lib Dems attack us relentlessly, e.g. Clegg's acceptance speech. So Caroline "lovebombs" him. She should be talking about "Calamity Clegg", internal splits and Lib Dem support for the EU constitution. It's Calamity Caroline now!

I don't think this is necessarily the good news for the LibDems that they think it is - I have written a piece on my blog about this:

http://deborah4twickenham.com/?p=231

Deborah Thomas
PPC Twickenham

I don't know why some Tories worry about Clegg - he's vacuous and will cause us few problems - they may even go down another point or two without Cable, and this result is ideal, leaving them a divided party.

But I agree we should be attacking them, not treating them as part of a progressive co-alition.

Those of us who have witnessed the sheer nastiness of the Lib Dem party, and more importantly, it's total incompetence, want nothing to do with them.

Disaster for Lib Dems. Narrow victory means a split party and potential for lots of internal fights - as we well know from past experience.

More worryingly for them is why 20% less people voted than when Ming's coronation took place. Given tis was close you would expect more.

This seems to confirm what I am hearing about them having real trouble motivating their activists to do anything.

This is an opportunity for us.

A suprisingly very close and potentially divisive result. Not many people voted either - it looked rather like a general election result in a single constituency!

Nick Clegg will almost certainly get some sort of honeymoon just for the publicity but I'd be surprised to see it lasting long. People wil realise there's only one way to vote out this government and that is to vote Conservative.

I disagree with JJB et al that we should attack Clegg. Who is going to be scared of him? Of yesterday's seven approaches to attacking the LibDems I prefer the one which emphasised that 'only a vote for the Conservatives is a guaranteed route to ousting Labour'. With Labour so unpopular I think we must present ourselves as the only alternative government.

Thanks Deborah. Your post was worth reading. I commend it to others.

Sorry Jennifer - I agree we shouldn't give them lots of attention - at national level in speeches and so on (although they do need to be dealt with on the ground).

That raises their credibility.

But, although I am a strong supporter of Caroline Spelman, I'd rather we didn't make comments like she did today.

As you say, the right way is simply to set out our plans as an alternative government, and the rest should take care of itself.


That was quite an interesting piece Deborah.

Very enjoyable to read.

Whatever one thinks of the LibDems (I do not rate them at all), one has to give it to them that they are VERY good with the numbers- they said the leadership election was too close to call weeks ago and we all thought 'yeah sure!'....and they were 100 % correct...and they call every by-election perfectly, days before the poll. We need to learn a little about vote calculation from them.

"As you say, the right way is simply to set out our plans as an alternative government, and the rest should take care of itself."

Agreed.

As for Spelman, well, they are left wingers and we are or we should be on the centre right.

If anyone will be working together it will be the Labour Party and Lib Dems - get that into your head and lets be prepared for a decisive victory, not a victory that will revolve around need to work with the Lib Dems.

Excellent piece by Deborah

Such TV performances as I forced myself to watch did not exactly reveal a dynamic commanding presence in Clegg. Rather he seemed to spend most of his time making faces as Huhne climbed all over him.

He won just a whisker over half of the voters in what seems to have been a significantly reduced turnout from Campbell's election. Hardly a ringing endorsement for him nor proof of a highly united party behind him, nor is it exactly the win that was predicted: I seem to recall that the smart money was on him walking it 60-40 or so. The actual result suggests he nearly lost it which in turn suggests he put in a poor performance to lose that much ground.

Though PMQs is hardly the full measure of a man, it does matter to the extent of being somewhere to see how people conduct themselves under fire. I do not have the feeling that Clegg has 'presence' nor the sort of deftness of phrase that is required to make this work for him. Cable was given a reasonable hearing because everyone knew he was but the scene shifter and he had a couple of 'bon mots' to deliver that trashed Brown. Clegg will not receive the same courtesy.

I also think that his having been in Parliament for five minutes is a serious disadvantage. He may find getting command of the House a problem, especially as he may not yet have established himself as a Commons presence.

When I have seen him in debate it has been pedestrian and flat so I think he may find this part hard.

So whilst there are reasons that would have made Huhne preferable to Clegg for us, I feel underwhelmed by the latter and his potential. We shall see.

A propos Brown, I fully agree that he is now going to look markedly the old, tired, yesterday's man: he already does so to some extent and the 'clunking fist' style of oratory he espouses seems so 1970s.

Add in how bewildered he seems at the moment - his appearance in the Europe debate this week was very odd: he sat the whole time with head down, thumbing through his files like a man possessed: very manic looking stuff - and one has a sense of someone on the way down.

Clegg may suprise us all and blossom. But it will be a surprise.

Eugene "Whatever one thinks of the LibDems one has to give it to them that they are VERY good with the numbers- ...and they call every by-election perfectly, days before the poll. We need to learn a little about vote calculation from them"

Quite right Eugene, it starts with voter software that
1) works
2) is built for 2007 and not 1997 and
3) is deployed properly.

If Clegg turns out to be a true radical liberal, both socially and economically then we will see an impact on our vote. I doubt he can carry his party but it is pointless trying to enter the crowded centre ground. How refreshing it would be if Clegg became a Ron Paul figure, espousing a proper libertarian viewpoint and showing that there is an alternative to what we have at the moment from both ourselves and Labour.

Just heard Nick Clegg interviewed on R4s PM which only confirmed what a lightweight he is. He sounded very nervous. Agree with Jennifer there's no point in coming in too hard against Clegg. It would only make it look as if he was to be feared giving him too much credibility. I reckon Caroline Spelman's approach is the right one. BTW Eddie Mair demolished Hazel Blears over the 7k donation to DC. After grandly announcing Labour had to 'dig up' the story which only came to light yesterday, Mair revealed it had been reported in an Electoral Commission newsletter in November. Collapse of Blears. (She sounded like she was going to bawl out her researcher). Apart from that the story only reignites the much much bigger Abrahams story reminding everyone of Labour sleaze.

Just blogged:

Can Nick Clegg be done for corrupt practice?

The Universities of Sheffield (Sheffield and Hallam) have an enlightened policy. They automatically register their students on the electoral roll.

This means that each individual student should vote either by post from a home address or in the constituency in Sheffield.

Guess what?

Many choose to be ignorant and vote twice.

And who is the main recipient of this concentration of adulation? A former lecturer at the University, since 2005 MP for Sheffield, Hallam: Nick Clegg.

There are 45,000 students in Sheffield.

I think Clegg will be far more capable of holding onto would be Conservative voters than Ming ever was and it underlines how essential it is for the Conservatives to stay on the centre progressive ground and not go on about Europe.

I don't think so Cleo. Clegg opposes giving the British people a vote on the European Constitution. He is as much a fraudelent democrat as Brown. We should expose this day after day. Some Lib Dems like to pose as Eurosceptics we should expose them as frauds too.

Hallooo Cleo, still exactly on message!

Nick Clegg seems to resemble a bad artists portrait of David Cameron, and when he speaks, his voice sounds vaguely like DC's, neither of those things will do him any favours, because he needs to establish an individual image of his own.

Well said, Malcolm. Clegg once said (Guardian, 15.10.03) that the real reason why the government does not want to hold a referendum is the fear that it may lose.

He admitted then that the EU Constitution was no mere tidying up exercise, but this year claims its near-identical remould is a modest document that does not need a referendum!

Clegg's personal leadership manifesto 'My Vision for Britain' goes on about being true to principles, but for some reason he won't keep his 2005 general election pledge....

Methinks he's in for some embarrassment.

Clegg nearly went to pieces interviewed by Jon Snow on C4 News - very very nervous. He even managed to say he wouldn't do a deal with the LibDems before correcting himself with an 'errr sorry - Labour'. He was tripping up on his words all over the place.

I suspect that there are quite a few Libdems who voted for Clegg early in the voting window who will come to regret their choice if they aren't already doing so. Whenever I hear him, Clegg just seems to waffle.

Politically Huhne is even less to my taste, but it has to be conceded that he ran a much better campaign and has more evident leadership qualities.

I'm watching Clegg's speech now. I've always thought if this is the most inspiring the Lib Dems can produce, it is quite an indictment...

Anyway, I had to laugh. Apparently, the Liberal Democrats are "weary of government interference."

One more week and victory would have been Huhne's.

That's politics.

As IDS wrote eloquently on ConservativeHome, best just forget the Lib Dems and concentrate on what we can control - namely, getting our own house in order.

Bad news and will take many votes and don't forget the LibDems are rather good at campaigning.

"there's only one way to vote out this government and that is to vote Conservative."

Votedave, you have said it in a sentence. Nick Clegg and the Liberals have got nothing to offer. The next election is about one thing, change, we either get it by returning a Conservative government or suffer more of the same from Labour. Those who want change, including those who usually vote Liberal, need to get behind David Cameron and make change a reality. A vote for the Liberals is a vote for the status quo, and more Labour failure.

2.20pm: News24 is predicting a very narrow Clegg victory. Clegg was expected to win decisively... if it is "very narrow" it will be a result of his lacklustre campaign.

Could it be that that his campaign was lacklustre because he didn’t really want the job? Could it be because he realises we are back into the two-main party politics now, and David Cameron has established such a commanding lead that it is too late to make headway now? Or, maybe he realises his party is split down the middle between economic liberals and high tax and spend socialists, and that the latter are said to be the vast majority among the activists. Anyway compare and contrast the narrowness of the actual result, only 500 votes ahead of Chris Huhne – barely a mandate – with David Cameron’s decisive victory in our leadership election.

It would have been better for us if Huhne would have won.
I doubt it will make much difference - Vincent Cable was probably the best possible leader the Liberal Democrats could have had, he will still be a leading player, probably the intellectual force behind policy development he has increasingly been since becoming Deputy Leader which he of course remains.

Chris Huhne though might stand for another senior position - Party President or Deputy Leader perhaps, if Nick Clegg resigns after the next General Election it is quite possible that there could be a leadership election between Chris Huhne, Vincent Cable and Julia Goldsworthy or Lynne Featherstone - depending on who keeps their seats.

Most likely though if a likely falling back of the Liberal Democrats to more like where they were after the 1997 General Election occurs that it will be said that it wasn't Nick Clegg's fault and he will be allowed to stay on for another term.

Anyway compare and contrast the narrowness of the actual result, only 500 votes ahead of Chris Huhne – barely a mandate – with David Cameron’s decisive victory in our leadership election.
Both Liberal Democrat candidates were standing on such similar platforms that it did amount to a decision on which was thought more likely to win, there were much bigger policy differences between David Cameron and David Davis, if the Conservatives had used the same system that the Liberal Democrats used, would David Cameron have won? It would have come down to preference votes in a 5 way contest, the final round of MPs voting in the Conservative leadership election had a big effect on how members voted, in a STV ballot of the members Liam Fox might well have won - he didn't get through to the members vote largely because his honest questioning of whether the UK should be part of the EU is a bit much for MPs who mostly are more favourable towards the EU than party members, which is actually the case in all 3 main parties.

PODWAS - Poor Old Deborah, What a shame! She is an inexperienced amateur compared to Vince!

I wish they'd had Hughes - he behaved like a shifty undertaker (with the body hidden) on the dark night they decapitated poor old Ming.

I wish they'd had Hughes
There were always many who felt that his reasons for joining back in the early 1980s, which he gave as being that "his local Labour council were too right wing", were dubious to say the least - that he was possibly closer in opinions to Michael Foot than to David Steel. Peter Hain had similar sorts of origins.

Peter Tatchell's endorsement in 2006 was probably the kiss of death for Simon Hughes leadership hopes.

I see Nick Clegg as more of an Iain Duncan-Smith than a David Cameron, in that he already seems to have shown a marked inability to rise to the occasion. Voting for someone 'like' David Cameron was both cynical and naive. Cynical for obvious reasons, but naive to expect someone picked from such a small pool to replicate exactly the qualities of another leader. Clegg seems to lack the charm, confidence, charisma, lightness of touch and ability to answer tough questions that Cameron has. I suspect that Clegg's PMQs will be a rather sad affair (not that Cameron's have been anything to write home about of late). Clegg ought to be rather flattered by the dramatic nickname 'Calamity' in my opinion. It's hard to imagine someone so dull and ineffectual causing more than a passing tribulation.

The Lib Dem's have realised too late that what they really needed to replicate was the basis of the Tories decision, not the result. That basis being -forget who's face fits, or who looks right on paper, and go for the leader who makes the best case for themselves. That is how we found ourselves with Cameron not Davis. And not doing that is why the Lib Dem's have found themselves with Clegg, not Huhne (or indeed Cable).

Simon R - I agree there is a whiff of IDS's leadership about Clegg. His acceptance speech yesterday brought back sad memories of the infamous 'turning up the volume' speech - stilted, nervous and over coached.

Paxman made mince meat of him on Newsnight yesterday.

I don't know why some Tories are worried - probably because they want to snipe at Cameron.
I actually supported David Davis, but David Cameron won and deserves the support of the party, and they have sharpened up the tax proposals.
One reason we're doing well.

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