A Tale of Two Leaders

Ben Page of Ipsos-MORI has kindly sent me his review of the polling year.  I'll highlight some more of the data tomorrow but as a good night taster... here are two graphs that show the very different trajectories for Gordon Brown and David Cameron:

Comments

[bluepatriot]

If you look at the top graph, Major was in freefall when he still won the '92 election. Brown's "trajectory" is not good though.

[Number Cruncher]

So what they're saying is: Cameron's doing almost as well as he was before he'd done anything?

[MrB]

Fascinating graphs!

Number Cruncher, no doubt your post is a criticism of Cameron. However, I think the statement you've just made is a big compliment.

If you look at the graphs, all leaders start of with a positive rating. This is most likely due to them being "baggage free". Then though there is a seemingly unstoppable fall into negative territory.

Cameron is the only one that has managed to bounce back. This is a testment to what a brilliant politician he has become.

[Teck Khong]

Like seismic convulsions, the Brown trajectory would probably withstand a few more aftershocks with partial recovery each time, but the next major catastrophic event would put it past the point of ineffective recovery and no return.

To seal a victory, Conservatives must remain united and keep off the "don'ts" while maintaining their momentum with the "must dos"; the significant Cameron uptick is probably due mainly to his acclaimed performance at the Blackpool Conference and the inheritance tax announcement.

[James]

Bluepatriot - you say Major was in freefall before the 1992 election - but he was at least still in positive figures. He didn't drop into and stay in negative territory until after the 1992 election.

Brown is already in negative territory. The question is - is that a temporary result of short term problems, or is it the shape of things to come until the next GE...?

[James Maskell]

Camerons speech wasnt that good. In terms of content it wasnt very good and the only thing people took from it was that it was done without a script in front of him, which isnt a novelty for him. It was heavily scripted. The IHT announcement if placed at the heart of a manifesto wont be enough. Giving a tax cut to those in families with large estates isnt exactly a vote winner in my book.

[Ted]

James
A good speech is one that meets its objectives. The polls turned after Cameron's speech and even further after the Osborne one. It might not be enough in next election but more than achieved its purpose in October. Showed how weak the support for Lbour was and how easily voters would reach for an alternative. To harden the change in support will, I agree, need more meat but the sizzle helps.

[J Hutchings]

These graphs are incredibly difficult to read

x axis ?