48% of voters tell ComRes that 'it's time for a change'

Today's ComRes survey for The Independent is much more consistent with Friday's YouGov survey for The Telegraph than Saturday's ICM poll for The Guardian.  ComRes gives the Conservatives a 41% to 30% lead over Labour with the LibDems on 16%.  The ConservativeHome graphic will be added a little later.

There are some other encouraging numbers in the Independent's poll:

• On a forced choice, voters agree by 48% to 36% that "it's time for a change; next government should be a Conservative one" over "prefer a Labour government to a Conservative one".  That suggests that Brown is failing (has failed?) in his central mission to convince voters that he is the change that the country needs.  It will also provide food for thought for Nick Clegg.  Voters may be unforgiving if the LibDems prop up a government that voters think has had its day.
• Cameron leads Brown by 39% to 37% on 'best person to be Prime Minister' and by 51% to 31% on 'most likeable'.
• By 40% to 35% the Tories are thought to have the best frontbench.
• The one Christmas crumb of comfort for Mr Brown is that by 44% to 36% Brown is most trusted to take the British economy through a potentially difficult time in 2008.  That might have been a more interesting question if the "2008" hadn't been included.

The poll was conducted on 14th to 16th December so would not have registered any 'Clegg effect'.

Comments

[Tony Makara]

My own findings from talking to Labour supporters is that they are so disgusted with the current government that most are not going to vote at all. It seems they are not ready to make the great leap of faith and vote Conservative but they have definitely had enough of the dead-end that is New Labour. People are particularly upset by Labour's treatment of the poor, and the collapsing state of the NHS. From what I can gather a lot of Labour supporters believe a spell in opposition would give the party a chance to regroup and find its radical edge again.

It is indeed shocking to see the Brown is still trusted more over the economy, especially if we hit hard times. Not to worry though the economic downturn is coming. The credit built economy has stagnated, in order to make credit available again the BOE will have to keep cutting interest rates, four cuts being forecast for 2008, lower interest rates will reduce the strength of the pound and that will inflate the price of imported energy and foodstuffs, an increase in those will bring demands for wage increases and we are back to the dog chasing its tail all over again. The economy will suffer stagflation in 2008 and this time next year Brown's self-cultivated image as an economics guru will be dashed to pieces.

[MHDH]

As an ex-Party member, I still have to concede that the likelihood of a majority Government of the Conservative Party is becoming very likely indeed. However, what will not happen is a Conservative Government and many of us regret there's such a divergence between the two concepts.

What I would love to see is a category of None of The Above on the ballot paper. It would win by a bloody landslide.

[Moral minority]

Voters are now fed up the government's sleaze, incompetence, spin and arrogance. Apart from the minor concession on IHT (to paid for with higher green taxes), Cameron has not offered a substantial alternative policy platform.

The raw numbers show that about a third of the population is undecided and/or will not vote. That is the target audience that we must convince and motivate to vote Conservative. It is time to abandon the obsession with a few swing voters in target seats. Cameron must be more ambitious and earn himself a wider mandate.

[R.Rowan]

It seems 44% of the polled need to take a serious look at Browns economic competence,the man is a disaster as the next year will surely show.Brown from the off with gold has been building up to the greatest economic disaster since the Labour governments of the sixties and seventies.

[Joe James Broughton]

MHDH - "What I would love to see is a category of None of The Above on the ballot paper. It would win by a bloody landslide."

That's hypothetical - but the closest party to that is the Lib Dems. And they don't win - they will come a bad third.

I agree that tax cuts have to be at the heart of Conservative policy. To be fair, I think they have sharpened up the aims more clearly - not just IHT. Quite a bit has been set out on business taxes. We should return to the raided pensions - some hits were scored on that early in the year but people were still cagey about what we were saying because Brown was still trusted with financial matters - I don't think he is now.

[clive elliot]

Joe James - The Libdems are not 'none of the above'.

They are both of the above.

[Matt Wright]

The forced choice question is a very interesting result with 48% for a change involving the Conservatives and 36% against. It looks like this was a question posed only to those who actually vote (maybe someone can confirm) so is revealing and encouraging.