Tories now ahead by 5% according to MORI

With apologies for the lateness of this post but a survey in yesterday's Sun put the Tories 5% ahead of Labour.  Last week a survey from the same pollster (using different methodologies?) put Labour 1% ahead.

The poll focused on immigration and you can inspect the detailed findings here.

Comments

[Votedave]

Thanks for posting this.

I have no doubt whatsoever the last MORI poll was rogue as it so out of place from all the other polls of the last month, and it claimed support for "other" parties was nearly halved from 10 to 6 per cent, which was too ludicrous to believe. This one shows "others" on 12 per cent.

[Northernhousewife]

There is a discussion on "Political Betting" about this poll which also covers the question of the public's reaction to immigration.
For all poll obsessives[!!!], there has been abit of statistical rounding going on[we are on 40.55, Labour 34.7 so the gap is nearer 6%].

[actvist]

Great poll - if you compare like with like, the headline numbers on the prior Mori poll should have been Con +9, not the way it was headlined. Mori says their methods don't matter.

6% is a vast Labour drop - we ought to point out that the vote question was asked before the immigration questions, so there was no "push-polling" here.

So the worst pollster for the Tories has them at 40%. Brilliant stuff.

[Tony Makara]

Seeing as Labour pulled all their rabbits out of the hat during Brown's coronation I can't see how Labour are going to come up with anything news and retrieve the situation. As David Cameron says they are a decaying organism.

Since yellow saturday there seems to have been a change of mood in the country. People now are ready for change. The big problem Labour face is that they have no-one coming through their academy. They are stale, burnt-out and milking their last days of power. The longer they hang-on the greater will be the scale of their defeat. A point Gordon Brown seems to have missed.

[EML]

I'm waiting to see what Brown comes up with on Tuesday - he could yet have one last trick up his sleeve.

The proposed bills that have been trailed in the newspapers this weekend are ordinary stuff, but Brown is more than likely holding something back - perhaps on the Armed Forces?

[activist]

It's amazing that there's so little comment on this poll - I suppose it's a question of another day, another Tory lead!

What an astounding end to Brown's honeymoon.

[Northernhousewife]

Sorry, my post above above should read UK Polling, not PoliticalBetting.

[CCHQ Spy]

Editor: I heard you on The World This Weekend saying that the Tories were winning the battle of ideas. Do you REALLY believe that?

And PS WHAT WERE YOU DOING AT A LABOUR CONFERENCE?

[Editor]

In some areas, I do CCHQ Spy. Particularly on how we combat social injustice and economic competitiveness.

I'll post later on why I was at yesterday's Labour conference. Back to the thread now please!!!

[Ted]

As I keep posting Mori states the lead is 6%, not 5%, 6%!

Its a result of rounding but clearly stated by Ipsos Mori in the tables is a 6% lead.

[activist]

Ted - obviously this is an incredible poll - Labour going from 1% in front to 5 or 6 points behind - but didn't I read on political betting that the numbers are skewed because they add up to 101%? That might explain the error?

In reality, the plunge in Labor support in just two weeks is exceptionally encouraging for us and suggests the bold stance on immigration is paying off (and rehashed announcements on schools etc aren't)

[Effie]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

Abuse directed at other commenters won't be tolerated.

[Effie]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

You have no idea where the target of your comment works, Effie, so don't suggest that you do know.

[John Leonard]

Just to put this poll into perspective:

Using the UK Polling Report Swingcalculator gives us the following seat spread

Con: 299
Lab: 302
Libdem: 21
Other: 10

Hung Parliament

Using Electoral Calculus Predictor:

Con:303
Lab:302
Libdem:16
Other: 11

Hung Parliament

A swing of 2% from Labour to Conservative would possibly put the Conservatives in the region of an overall majority.

A swing of 3% from Labour to Conservative would possibly give the Conservatives a comfortable majority.

My caution is based on the regional information. The regional samples are well below the size needed to be considered as a truly indicative but even so they suggest that the Conservatives are leading strongly in the South and Midlands, but are still well behind in the North.

Add into this equation that is likely that the Libdems incumbents will be significantly more resiliant (they are not part of a failing government or the primary opposition) than the projections suggest.

On one hand if this works in favour of the Conservatives the current result could just get them over the winning line. On the other hand they could end up still 20 or more seats behind Labour. The best that can be said is that this poll likely indicates a hung parliament. As to the biggest party, who knows.

This is the 8th consecutive poll where the Conservatives have scored 40% plus. This pretty much equals the Labour bounce during September and is their best run of poll results for the Conservatives since July 1992. A good result no doubt but as the above show there is much more work to do.

Nothing is yet won and there is likely a long time to go.....

[Ted]

John

If you use the figures to first decimal 40.6 v 34.7 (its a 6 point lead) Conservatives gain another 6 seats on electoral calculus and Labour drop below 300. Agree otherwise with your comments.

[Comstock]

Afternoon all. Obviously not a great poll for Gordon, but as John Leonard says, still a long time to go.

Anyway it's interesting to see "This one shows "others" on 12 per cent."

Nearly as much as the LibDems and it would be interesting to know how it broke down....Greens? BNP? SNP/PC?- and is it *really* voting intention or is it people saying the first thing that comes into their head to get rid of the interviewer?

[Edison Smith]

I still think a healthy 10% lead is the required minimum, say 42/32 with the Libs back up to 20. That would give us a workable majority of 30-odd, which is comfortable but not brilliant (this is all a massive guestimation btw!). Remember, we want a Tory government for longer than 4 years.

So, a long long way to go yet and still the north face of Everest to climb.

But promising signs.

[John Leonard]

Ted:

I know about the 5%/6% debate and let's just say I decided to take a 'conservative' view of it when posting. In my experience it's always a good idea to keep something (not much I know) in reserve.

;o)

Comstock:

Others figures (from the detailed data sheet)

SNP 2%
UKIP 2%
PC 2%
Green 2%
Others (BNP, Ind, SSP) 4%

[Malcolm Dunn]

Many of you who post regularly when polls are announced know far more about the subject than I do.
When people say that this poll will produce a hung parliament, leave us as the largest party or give us a majority etc does it assume that any swing is uniform throughout every seat in the country or are these calculations more sophisticated than that?
If they do contend than swings are uniform throughout the country I would contend that these calculations are useless.

[Scotty]

A good poll for us. It will be interesting to see if the Labour vote continues to decline slowly as voters build up a more solid perception of Gordon Brown PM, that and the fact that the same ministerial incompetence continues under his premiership.
Once the Libdems have chosen a leader, we will then be able to see which main party if any, sees voters drifting back to them. Still don't think that we can build up a consistent narrative of the political landscape while polls remain volatile.
Is this the first time we have reached 40% on the ConHom poll of polls Tim?

[Votedave]

Edison, I don't think the Conservatives will need a 10% lead to get a comfortable overall majority. As John Leonard indicated, we shouldn't forget the swings are usually larger in marginal seats when we have a change of government, as they were in 1997.
In fact even in 1992, if the whole country had followed the uniform swing of 1.9% to Labour, the Conservative overall majority would have been 61 rather than 21.
The Tories were 11% ahead in the 1987 general election, which gave the party a landslide victory.

[John]

If Dave doesn't shoot himself in the foot again, we may even WIN the next election. I just hope Dave tries to keep quiet until then.

[Comstock]

Thanks for those figures, John Leonard.

[Yet Another Anon]

I just hope Dave tries to keep quiet until then.
If you mean David Cameron, somehow I don't think a leader of a political party saying virtually nothing would go down that well, people would wonder why, government could conceivably get away with saying little in circumstances in which people are happy with their record, opposition doesn't really have this luxury, people want to know what a government led by David Cameron will be like - there needs to be more substance and less dithering, frequently as soon as a policy appears to be announced further statements saying different things are then announced, too much sitting on the fence.

[jay]

the reason that labour have no one new coming through is that Gordo doesn't want to be shown up. So this is really a gift horse for Dave and the boys as if Gord won't let any of his bright boys(just in case they want to become PM) out they are going to get a kicking.

Oh dear! I detect a conservative majority when he finally has to call the vote

[Peter Harrison]

Malcolm - it depends on which seat calculator you use! UK Polling Report assumes a uniform swing. Electoral Calculus uses a more complex model, so is probably a little nearer the truth. However, I suspect that both models are overstating the size of the lead we need for an overall majority.

There was a strong element of anti-Conservative tactical voting in the 1997 election. That has reduced somewhat but was still present in the last election, costing around 25-30 seats. If that disappears or, even better turns into anti-Labour tactical voting, the calculations will change significantly. Unfortunately, I suspect that Labour will not suffer from tactical voting as much as the Conservatives did, simply because there won't be enough Conservatives willing to hold their noses and vote LibDem to kick out Labour MPs.

For Labour to be 5.85% behind with the most Labour-friendly pollster is bad news for them and good news for us. However, as I have said before, we must not become complacent. There have been many cases where the opposition party has been well ahead in the polls through most of a parliament but has still failed to win the General Election. There must be absolutely no let up.