The good news is that Labour is in trouble (the bad news is that so is Britain)

A week ago I spoke to North Shropshire Conservatives as the guest of Owen Paterson MP.  It was my first attempt at a big picture overview of the political scene since Brown bottled out of an autumn election.  The post below is a development and update of what I said.  I'd be grateful for reactions...

There is good news and bad news.  The good news is political.  The bad news concerns everything else.

First the good news.  Labour is in trouble.  Brown's ratings are tanking and for good reason.  People are wising up to the scale of his government's incompetence.  Brown's lack of team skills is frighteningly bad.  'Ratner Saturday', the cosy deal with Andrew Marr and repeatedly poor PMQs performances have transformed how political journalists see Brown and how they're beginning to see and report him.

At the same time the Tory team is firing on all cylinders.  Announcements are coming thick and fast.  There's energy.  There's 'And theory' balance.  There's passion from David Cameron.  The Tory team is getting stronger.  Osborne on inheritance tax.  Davis against Smith on 56 days.  Gove on many fronts.  There's enthusiasm again amongst the grassroots.

But if that's the good news for the Conservatives, the bad news is that Britain is in a bad way.  I believe there has been a massive underestimation of the extent to which Britain is in danger of becoming a declining nation once more.  The extent of this decline hasn't yet registered in the polls but the scale of emigration (and the desire to emigrate) is a warning of underlying national disquiet.  It's arguably not as serious as 1979 but it's real.  An excellent paper by Policy Exchange on Britain's economic performance - More mirage than miracle - set me down this path.

Deciding whether we want to manage decline or reverse decline may well determine the outcome of the next election.  The extent to which the next Conservative manifesto is a radical manifesto may well be David Cameron's biggest decision.  If the electorate want reassurance that Britain is basically doing okay and they want a change of management but not of fundamental direction, the Conservatives should eschew big policies and make their agenda small so that the Brown attack machine has little to target.  But if the electorate is wise to the extent of Britain's challenges, then a radical manifesto - that doesn't depressingly dwell on Britain's problems, but offers a hope-drenched path to renewal - may be what will lift the party from today's hung parliament territory and to a working majority.

It's not yet clear to me what the British voter will want but I'm pretty sure that Britain needs significant change. 

Comments

[Patriot]

Interesting - and confirmation of what many in the country are thinking and experiencing on a daily basis.

On the 15th November the Telegraph opened a thread with the title "Why are so many Britons emigrating?". It began with the words, "Britain is experiencing the greatest exodus of its own nationals since before the First World War.." and invited feedback from on-line readers on the reasons behind the exodus.

The thread attracted a staggering 650 posts which make fascinating, if depressing reading, and give a rare insight into the thoughts of voters in the country who are experiencing on a day to day basis the very real damage done to the country since '97, and which is confirmed the Policy Exchange paper.

Most comments are from folk who are about to leave, some are from ex-pats who talk about the changes they have seen in Britain as they have visited over the years since they left.

Anyone looking for an insight into the areas which concern voters most should make a point of reading the comments.

The thread is available on the Telegraph website - find the search tool on the home page, search on "emigrating Britons" - the thread is the third or fourth one down in the results list.

[Traditional Tory]

In my job as a surveyor and valuer I frequently meet people who are about to emigrate and of course we talk about it.

One major reason common to all is disgust at the level of immigration to the UK and the unacceptable changes this has brought.

Not to mention, of course, the associated PC 'racism' taboo which has descended on this country in recent years.

[Graeme Archer]

I imagine it was an excellent talk that you gave. Your diagnosis is exemplary (I'm not agreeing with every word but that's hardly the point, is it). If Conservative Home continues to help the party build the narrative about Breakdown Britain under Brown it will be doing a great service for the country.

[Iain]

Partiot, yes every politician should be made to read those posts in the Telegraph, posts which goes right to the heart of the failure of our political class.

It should be noted that British people are fleeing the country for first world countries, while the British state is seeking to fill up with people from developing and third world countries. If nothing else that shows this country is on the slide.

[Martin Cole]

Oh dear, like the leaders of your party you are trying to ignore the real crisis facing the nation, namely the effective destruction of our parliament.

Please read the most recent posts to my blog where I detail some potential strategies up to 13th December e.g. the illegality of the Reform Treaty negototiations and conflicts with the 1688 Reform Act in attempting to bind future parliaments.

After Brown signs ( if he has the courage so to do), I suggest threatening the pensions of MPs opposing a referendum amendment who were elected in 2005 on a party platform promising such a referendum.

Peter Oborne reviewing his book on the Political Class on Parliament TV at the weekend damagingly, but probably correctly, lumped Cameron and Osborne in that category.

Attacking the pocketbooks of Labour and Lib/Dem MPs (plus Ken Clarke) might help counter such charges which will become increasingly damaging as the election approaches and Tory treachery over the Treaty becomes ever clearer(see Hague in The Independent on which I have also blogged).

[Jomo]

Brown comes from the Scottish elite despite his attempts to masquerade as a Red Clydesider. As one of the elect, he was brought up to believe in the power of the parish to cure all ills at the local level. He is dedicated to spending other peoples’ money on the causes he believes in. Paternalism and the dependency culture are the inevitable consequences of his ideology.

He has surrounded himself with clones and incompetents. Dissenting voices are re-educated and confess their counter revolutionary errors. Public humiliation follows as Admiral West learnt to his cost.

Brown still has time to recover if he really wants to keep the job he has pursued all his life. However, he will have to dump his friends and change his policies and spending priorities. Will he choose the path of James the First or Charles the Martyr? Can DC outmanoeuvre the man who saved his political career? The politics are fascinating but…

What is certain is further decline if the government continues on its present path. Northern Rock is symptomatic of the shambles all around us. The seventies are back and everyone wants to get out if they can.

[SamBury]

Truly depressing reading. Why don't we just knock it on the head and; open our borders and speed up the magical process of multicultural Britain whilst offering native Britons financial incentives to emigrate to regions of the Anglosphere as a reward. De-establish the Church of England to affirm our commitment to open faith. Abolish the Monarchy to symbolise our dedication to Europe and the New World. Convert town villages into lush apartments and build more out-of-town Tescos. Pacify the military and phase out regimental loyalty, thus ending demoralisation in the forces. Continue the political inertia of devolution and confine 'Great Britain' to our wretched past and redirect our national pride in areas such as football, lager consumption and the supremecy of our language.

10 years of Labour.

[EML]

Nice post, editor.

The extent to which the British want radicalism in their politics will depend on the economy in the next year or so. Labour have been lucky with the economy, i'm sure it helped them gain a workable majority at the last election.

Things will only get worse for Britain, and therefore for Brown and Labour as well. We have to make sure that we convey an aura of optimism, whilst making sure that the electorate hears all about what a bunch of cretins this Labour lot are.

[Tony Makara]

Conservatives have to be realistic and accept that the first period back in office will be about damage limitation and getting Britain back on track after the mess that will have been left by Labour. The great change that we all crave may take time as the ship is turned around in the right direction. Labour's obscene level of borrowing will have to be addressed and rectified, again something that will take time.

I see many parallels with the problems president Reagan inherited after the wasteful Carter years. Mr Reagan had to deal with a bloated public services and many gimmicky schemes that served no purpose and cost a great deal of money to the taxpayer. On the economic from president reagan had to lead the shift from a demand-led, and inflationary, economy, just like Labour's today, to a supply-side economy that put the emphasis on production leading pricing and not vice-versa. So patience is the key, there will be hard times ahead but as Ronald Reagan showed it can be done.

[Norwegian Conservative]

I agree with Tony Makara. The Conservatives first task will be to get Britain back on track.

If the Tories defeats Labour in the next General Election, the Conservative party's main campaign video for the next General Election (2013 or 2014) should focus on that issue. How Great Britain is a better place under Conservative government than under New Labour.
I am imagining sort of a British version of Ronald Reagans famous campaign video, "It's morning in America again".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY

"Why would we ever want to return to where we were, less than four short years ago"

[DavisFan]

My greatest fear is that "BORED HOUSEWIFE" has emigrated, and no number of Polish plumbers will be able to replace her.

[Bruges Group NG]

Touch wood, the tide finally seems to have turned in our favour. I am sure that much of this owes to the sheer "unlikeableness" of the new First Lord Of The Treasury and his goofy, unworldly cohorts. The Brownite press has picked up on this- you can almost sense the despair of the likes of Freedland, Kettle and Ashley as their man clunks ahead and confirms all their worst suspicions.

Of course, not everyone liked Mrs T by any means, but with her you had an over arching narrative, allied to a general competence and the "vision thing", all of which Brown is proving he totally lacks.

We must now hammer on about Northern Rock, the West Lothian question, and continue to ram home the message on Stamp Duty and IHT.

Further exposure to the electorate of Balls, Miliband(s), Harman etc will do the rest....and the Great Clunking Fist himself of course !

[Iain]

"We must now hammer on about Northern Rock, the West Lothian question, and continue to ram home the message on Stamp Duty and IHT."

No, you look at the now 730 odd posts on the Telegraph emigration topic web site, a majority of the respondents point to the uncontrolled immigration, and over crowded situation developing here for their unhappiness. The issue the Conservatives need to raise is population sustainability, for population sustainability dove tails with the case for immigration controls, for it makes the moral case for strict limits on immigration.

It dove tails with the issue of global warming, for if you don't have a population policy you don't have sustainability.

It dove tails with the issue on housing availability, for unless the Conservatives link the housing crisis with population sustainability, Gordon Brown is going to make it an issue of Conservative councils not allowing their countryside built over.

And it dove tails with the issue of congestion and public services availability, for the Government policy is to cram the country with people, then ration the resources available.

[Tony Makara]

Bruges Group NG, yes, the Labour government has nothing by way of vision. What do they stand for? The way they recycle old policies must be embarrassing to their more sensible supporters. Take for example last weeks grandiose statement over re-training British workers, which on closer inspection turned out to be just another name for the discredited NewDeal work-experience programmes which are already up and running. This government does more re-heating than a bachelors microwave.

The Conservative party is ready and primed for government. There is now a clear blueprint to take our nation forward. A realistic programme that doesn't promise the earth but will be able to deliver. Thats all the public wants. A government that will do what it can with the resources that it has at hand. The British people are sick of pie-in-the-sky promises that never get fulfilled. Labour have failed in all their key policy objectives. It really is time for change.

[Bored housewife]

Don't worry DavisFan, I haven't emigrated. But the reason for my silence was very relevant to this thread. Mr Bored Housewife was away this morning, so I had to "look after" the Polish plumbers working on our house. They are VERY good with their hands, I can tell you. I'm now very pro-immigration and plan to work my way through the EU27.

[Editor]

Enough of that Bored housewife, thank you!

[DavisFan]

I'm delighted to hear that, Bored Housewife. The party needs to realise that sometimes, affairs are the best ways to support marriage. A sound marriage can be a team effort.

Would you set up a Tory dating service, Editor?

[Bruges Group NG]

@Iain

Banging on about immigration turns off precisely the sort of moderate, floating voter we need to attract in order to get 42% to vote for us. Many, many of these people now have an "immigrant" as part of their extended families.

730 foaming posts on the Telegraph website won't butter any electoral parsnips- please learn the lessons of 2001.

[Sean Fear]

The tide has turned, I think. Anything can happen in two and a half years, but my feeling is that the Conservative Party is heading for a working majority, at the next election. I find it hard to see what can go right for Brown now.

That said, we must hope for a Conservative government worthy of the name, one that is prepared to do in the social and cultural field, what Mrs. Thatcher's did in the economic field.

[Alan S]

A really excellent (and depressing) post. Britain is in decline again. There can be little doubt of that. unfortunately Cameron is no Thatcher and he won't reverse that decline.

[Sally Roberts]

Very similar to the Scenario of Britain in the Late 1970's....and we all know what happened next!

[Dale]

"please learn the lessons of 2001"

I would sooner we learn the lessons of the past 2 months. Don't tell people what they want.

BTW William hague could never have won the 2001 election, Blair was unbeatable and the tory party was a joke.