Something to look forward to...

The Telegraph's Three Line Whip: "Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Telegraph is, to quote our polling guru Anthony King, ‘one of the most devastating I’ve ever seen’. That’s quite a verdict from a man who has been looking at these things for four decades. We’ll say no more for now, other than that one of the questions was on the technical matter of various persons’ ability ‘to run a whelk stall’."

Comments

[Comstock]

"one of the questions was on the technical matter of various persons’ ability ‘to run a whelk stall' "

Eh? That is quite the most bizarre thing I have ever read!

[Votedave]

That's quite a statement from Anthony King.
Labour under 30% again?
Ooh, I wonder what it will say???

[Nostradamus]

Ahh, Cornstock, you highlight the North/South divide perfectly. Any decent northerner will be able to tell you about whelks, cockles etc. You softy-southerners are clearly too delicate to eat whelks, let alone know anything about them.

[Jon h]

Devastating for whom?? Maybe labour are 10% ahead!

[John Leonard]

Jon H:

The TLW Thread is titled.

A Nasty Surprise In Store For Labour

[Tony Makara]

Suddenly a humdrum thursday evening has become something to look forward to!

[Paul D]

Does a government minister NEED the ability to run a whelk stall?

Presumably our shadow cabinet has that ability though, given their greater business background and experience

[Ken Stevens]

Nostradamus | November 29, 17:46
" Any decent northerner will be able to tell you about whelks, cockles etc. You softy-southerners are clearly too delicate to eat whelks, let alone know anything about them."

Ah, you are rendered irrational by your racial prejudice. The subtle, intellectual point being made is that a government of folk predominantly originating from north of Watford don't know how to run aforesaid whelk stall. I can testify personally to the joys of a plate of whelks at Leigh-on-Sea and even as recently as a month or so ago on the front at Swanage. Absolute paragons of corporate effectiveness and product quality, those places are. Recruit their managers immediately!

;-)

[John Leonard]

Don't get too excited people. Iain Dale reporting unconfirmed headline figures of:

Con 43
Lab 32
LD 14

http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/

[Editor]

I'm told by someone at The Telegraph that Iain's numbers are wrong. Let's wait about three hours and then we'll know for sure...

[Votedave]

I would have thought Labour would have gone below 32% - wasn't it Tories 41% and Labour 32% at the last YouGov poll?

[Tony Makara]

A sustained ten point lead looks good to me, especially as its comes from an eleven point lead for Brown only months ago. A 21% turnaround shows what a good job the front line team have done. Its up to us small-fry to keep chipping away at this corrupt Labour government in whatever way we can. Electoral death by a thousand cuts, Labour are going to die slowly and painfully. Gordon Brown will be haunted by cancelling that election for the rest of his days.

[David Sergeant]

"A 21% turnaround shows what a good job the front line team have done."

I worry that this may be temporary. The big story is Ms Harman not knowing where £5 grand came from. At the next GE no one will care. The big story to-day is that we have fallen from 3rd to 19th in primary school reading. That is a disaster which, I am sure, would affect the next GE if handled properly but I wonder if anyone will notice with Ms Harman being the big news.

[CDM]

It wasn't very long ago that people were saying Cameron should have delivered us a 10% lead... Where are they now? No doubt they'll come back and say that anything less than 50% of the vote is a failure.

[Donal Blaney]

To be fair, CDM, those who were saying DC should have been ahead in the polls - me included - said that he would achieve a poll lead by adopting what Tim calls "the Politics of And".

In other words

1. a balanced agenda that appeals to centrists on issues that matter to them (environmentalism, foreign aid and so on)
2. coupled with traditional conservatism (such as our post-conference policies on inheritance tax, home ownership, crime and school choice)
3. all delivered in a positive and optimistic tone.

Those of us who called for that three step plan rather than an "either/or" approach favoured by uber-modernisers or knee-jerk anti-Cameron activists are the ones entitled to a little smug satisfaction, I think :)

[Chad Noble]

Well said Donal.

It is worth restating this as often as possible to stop those pesky ubers reappearing from underneath their windmills and repeating the damage they caused before.

[Dick Wishart]

As well as Whelks & Cockels being enjoyed by softie southerners dont forget the true southern delicacy JELLIED EELS.

[Tony Makara]

As damaging as the latest Labour sleaze is it has taken the sting out of the missing-data story and as David Sergeant says will deflect from the shocking figures on primary school reading. Mr Gove will have to shout pretty loud to get heard on this one.

[Chad Noble]

Pah Dick! Jellied Eels were for our parents.

We still eat it, but call it unagi now don't you know... ;-)

[Henry Rogers]

"....Gordon Brown will be haunted by cancelling that election for the rest of his days........" Tony Makara 18:34

Just suppose, for a horrible moment, that he had done so on first succeeding to TB. He could have won so easily then. Labour with a majority of 50-100, safe until 2012, doesn't bear thinking of!

[Andrew James]

I can't believe that one of the most 'devastating' things Anthony King is a 11% Tory lead. Iain Dale's exclusive states the figures as 43/32/14, but unless there are additional figures on economic competence or leadership giving truly terrible ratings for Brown (0%?), I would have thought that the Labour polling would have to be worse than 32pc to be classed as 'devastating'.

The Lib Dems are still polling badly with YouGov,as usual, and this may suggest that their outrageous 21% with ICM was a rogue, although we should wait for further confirmation of this.

43/32/14 produces a Conservative majority of 60 with UKElect.

[John Leonard]

Nostradamus:

I'll have you know I was brought up cockling and line fishing. In those days I didn't venture north of the River Thames. Softy southerners indeed!

;o)

[Andrew James]

I'll try again: I can't believe that one of the most 'devastating' things Anthony King *has ever seen* is a 11% Tory lead.

[Dave Bartlett]

Memory tells me that the last time Mr Dale tried to anticipate a Telegraph poll he was way off, I'm predicting Lib Dems becoming the main party of the left.

[Tony Makara]

Henry Rogers, that scenario would probably have meant the end of Britain as we know it! We really can't take much more of this corrupt government. I look around the foreign press every day on the internet and I personally feel embarrassed to see our country being described as a hotbed of corruption. The thing is its not Britain, its not us the ordinary people, its the Labour party that is soiling our name around the world. We are losing respect fast and are becoming a laughing stock.

[Henry Rogers]

"...that scenario would probably have meant the end of Britain as we know it......."

Tony,
And I can think of all sorts of nightmarish further outcomes for our country though being an object of derision is bad enough. Still, 30 years ago the country was thought to be ungovernable and some people even feared that an East Block type regime would be the end of that story. Things can be changed, but we do tend to leave things a bit late, as has often been said.

Mind you there are plenty of other pots and kettles around Europe, not that that should be much of a consolation.

[MrB]

To make the poll "Devestating" I think it would have to show these things:

-A Tory lead of over 10%
-Cameron beats Brown on all leader qualities
-Labour loses points to us not seepage to LibDems or Others
-Conservative lead on most salient issues like Economy NHS Education Crime and Immigration.

[Iain Dale]

I stick by my figures. As Tim says, we'll see who's right at 9.30pm.

I think we need to look beyind the headline figures and delve into the detail to find the true extent of how devastating it is for Labour.

[James Burdett]

Surely the fieldwork would have been done largely before the events of the last day or so, and so will have been overtaken by events?

[Andrew James]

Either way, 11% is hardly a disaster - but yes, if it's 'devastating', then we ought to be ahead on all policy areas, questions of leadership, deputy leadership, who's better at darts, etc.

[m dowding]

Yates of The Yard is back! As senior adviser to the Police enquiry into illegal (unlawful in beanspeak)donations. As much as I'm joyful to see, as history tells us, the utter corruption wrought by and within socialist regimes, I'm saddened by the terrible damage and cost to our Nation.

[John Leonard]

I'm saddened by the terrible damage and cost to our Nation.

I fully agree and the key thing here is that in the aftermath the Conservative Party disassociate themselves completely from the Hayden Phillips report.

Under no circumstances should the Conservative Party be seen to want to punish the taxpayer (through the public funding of political parties) because Labour cannot behave in an honourable and transparent manner.

A political party created this mess and it should be up to the political parties alone to sort this mess out without using it as an excuse to penalise the taxpayer.

[John Broughton]

"Surely the fieldwork would have been done largely before the events of the last day or so, and so will have been overtaken by events?" - James Burdett

My invitation to complete the poll came on Monday and had to be completed by 15:00 on Wednesday.

[Votedave]

Funnily enough I have never been approached by a political pollster in my life, by any polling organisation. Am I alone?
Maybe I will be one day. If it happens I'll do my bit to get us a good result.

[David]

VoteDave,

Nope, I've never been approached to do one either. In fact, the other week I got a scam phone call trying to sell me a gigantic loan, and I was so sure it was eventually going to turn into an opinion poll (as the con-man originally suggested), that I played along for about 15 questions ;)

[Tony Makara]

"30 years ago the country was thought to be ungovernable"

Henry Rogers, yes, you will remember how groups of patriots were forming and preparing for social breakdown and a hard-left grab at power. The election of 1979 was a turning point in more ways than most people imagine. We needed radical change and got it. I was just sorry that our manufacturing industry went with that change. The difference today is that the threat to our country doesn't come from militant elements but from the government itself. This is no longer a failing and incompetent government but a fully-blown corrupt regime that wants to stamp, index and control our people. The last ten years have cast a dark shadow over our land.

[Dale]

I'm so excited, I hope it really is a disaster for labour.

[Tony Makara]

The news is just breaking on the Telegraph website now...

[Andrew Lilico]

One point to Iain...

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown is now a liability. The Labour young Turks that John Redwood wrote about must be sharpening their knives as we speak.

[Ken Stevens]

"Dick! Jellied Eels were for our parents.
We still eat it, but call it unagi now don't you know... ;-)
Chad Noble "

The cognoscenti of yesterday deemed stewed eels far more of a delicacy. Maybe I am alone in remembering Manze's eel & pie establishment at Archway? Islington is not far away, so it would have been a good place for NuLab to forget their psephological woes for a few precious moments.

Surely they cannot last too much longer now?( stewed NuLab, that is)

[ex-labour supporter]

T.B must be laughing all the way to the bank, he was PM 10 yrs, Brown maybe 18 months if he can last that long without a vote of no confidence, or being arrested.

[John Broughton]

"VoteDave" @ 21:09

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