Channel 4 has just revealed that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts the Conservatives 3% ahead of Labour. The real movement is in the collapse of the LibDems, however. Will Messrs Huhne and Clegg have the courage to act?
Added on Sunday morning:
Clegg would pose a problem for the Conservatives in my opinion.
I give MC until early next year.
Posted by: Radical Tory | October 06, 2007 at 19:13
It's now or never for Huhne and/or Clegg. If they don't do what needs to be done now then they'll not have time to rebuild their party's support before Brown does work up the gumption to call an election. Personally I hope they flunk it, Ming Campbell is the best LibDem Leader a Tory could hope for.
Posted by: Mr Angry | October 06, 2007 at 19:15
By the way on these figures Electoral Calculus claims Labour would have a majority of 18.
The Lib Dems would have no MP's. If only.....
Posted by: Radical Tory | October 06, 2007 at 19:16
At 41% can we alter the blue line on the graph to reflect that please, as when I posted my comment it was behind. ;)
With regards to Campbell, retirement on the grounds of ill health, leaving the way open for a younger and more dynamic leader.....so much for all the age and experience stuff being talked about in L/D circles then.
Posted by: Paul Kennedy | October 06, 2007 at 19:18
The graphic is a screenshot from C4 btw - Mr Jon Snow et al are responsible for the length of the bar charts!
Posted by: Editor | October 06, 2007 at 19:20
If you look carefully i think you can see that the bar chart has two shades ie. it includes the movement from the last poll.
Posted by: greg | October 06, 2007 at 19:23
The Ming has to do the honourable thing and fall on his sword as the Liberals have now become almost irrelevant under his "leadership". Nick Clegg could cause us a few problems, especially in regards chalanging us in the South of England, he is certainly r]the only hope they have. However I think he and the Conservatives could work together quite a bit to oppose the now discredited Mr Brown and make his life very difficult.
Posted by: Paul | October 06, 2007 at 19:25
The problem is that it is not as simple as simply junking Ming. First there is no guarantee that doing so wouldn't make things even worse. To have to sack one leader in a Parliament is a shame, to have to sack two is a shambles. Then there is the fact that they wouldn't really be able to change policy direction without experiencing discomfort.
The great thing from our point of view is that they cannot credibly claim to be the real opposition on 11%.
Posted by: James Burdett | October 06, 2007 at 19:27
With those disasterous poll numbers for Labour and the LibDems, perhaps the Tories should quietly be making some approaches to get some defectors.
Posted by: Anthoninus | October 06, 2007 at 19:30
I'm not sure if they will stay on 11% for too long. While I don't reckon they'll get to new heights or anything like that, given the saturation the other parties have had in the last few days, I suspect they'll settle back on 15-16% in the coming weeks/months. However, what will be interesting is which party that extra 4-5% will be sucked away from.
Here's hoping for them to come from Labour...
Posted by: David | October 06, 2007 at 19:32
Er.. yes, very interesting about Ming.
Can I just point out that this is the first time the Tories have been ahead in a national poll for a while?
Posted by: sbjme19 | October 06, 2007 at 19:37
Is this the return of 2 party politics, with Lab/Con support both at 80% and above??
How recently people were saying those days were over with Con/Lab support less than 70%!
Not sure any change of leader will help the Lib Dems. The main reason they are falling is due to a strong credible challenge from an alternative government.
How much can they really do to stop that?
Posted by: Graham Checker | October 06, 2007 at 19:40
Also I don't think we have been over 40% for a while. Although before we get too cock-a-hoop we need to keep turning the screw on the govt and the LibDems.
Posted by: James Burdett | October 06, 2007 at 19:48
Quite right James. PMQs this Wednesday will be delicious...
Posted by: Editor | October 06, 2007 at 19:49
I wanted to know what Nick Clegg looked like and wondered onto the Lib Dem website. I was surprised to see they are using the term ‘Shadow Cabinet’ to list their MP’s. I always thought that that term was officially given to the second largest party which is the opposition to Her Majesty's Government – hence the Conservative party. But yes think they will get rid of Ming!
Posted by: Robbie | October 06, 2007 at 20:01
In response to Radical Tory (1st Comment):-
Yes the Lib Dims do favour their blood baths in the depths of winter.
Posted by: Giles McNeill | October 06, 2007 at 20:10
Nick Clegg would not represent any threat to the Tory party. If Campbell was ditched the Lib Dems would cease to be respected by any quarter.
The worst thing that could happen from our perspective would be Charles Kennedy returning to the leadership.
Posted by: rightwingery | October 06, 2007 at 20:23
I think this is one of the most interesting bits of the recent polls, which I wrote about a couple of days ago:-
http://www.toryradio.com/node/3174
These latets polls are even worse for Ming. My take on it was a snap poll was the only think that would save Ming. Surely now if Brown is playing the long game the Lib Dems will have no option but to consider their options.
Posted by: Jonathan Sheppard | October 06, 2007 at 22:39
If they ditch Ming, the LibDems will only actually make themselves look more stupid, and may possibly lose more support. I reckon that in the fullness of time they will go back up to around 15%. A fall in their support was inevitable, the Iraq war and tuition fees being big issues where they held populist stances, gaining them votes, but with the decline in the interest and relevence of those issues, so their support falls.
Posted by: Sasha | October 06, 2007 at 22:58
11% would a complete unadulterated disaster for the Lib Dems but I cannot envisage them polling this badly - surely this result is just due to the media coverage attained by the two main parties?
Ming, however, does appear to be becoming a bit of a joke - his comments about ageism in politics and fixed term parliaments on QT the other day were met with rather sarcastically enthusiastic applause.
For us Tories, we can't really afford for the Lib Dems to do this badly (amusing though it is) because it makes it easier for Labour to retain an overall majority and means that we must gain even more seats to form a government.
As for the alternatives, Huhne only has a projected majority of 547 in Eastleigh and surely would be a foolish choice for leader if the Tories were to 'Ashcroft' him out of his seat at the next election. The Lib Dems need to make a sustainable choice as leader, which is why electing MC was such utter folly.
Enough of the Lib Dems though - 41% is excellent. We need to sustain this performance and bash Labour down to the low to mid-thirties. This is the only way we can WIN.
Posted by: Andrew James | October 07, 2007 at 01:19
For all the negative propaganda re MC , he never strikes me as being that bad a performer - better than drunkhead Kennedy any day of the week .
Posted by: Janet | October 07, 2007 at 08:32
I thought we had been in 'discussions' with Clegg to see if he wanted to come over?
Posted by: Andrew Bradley | October 07, 2007 at 10:05
Why should we take rats from that sinking ship?
Take their voters, let the Lib Dem MP's drown.
I wouldn't want to work alongside those lying social misfits anyway.....
Posted by: Treacle | October 07, 2007 at 18:51
I have always thought that MC performs rather well , much better than the media lightweights care to recognise . I suspect that the Libdems will rue the day they overthrew a steady pair of hands on the strenth of a few probably highly misleading polls .
It says a lot about them that Kennedy is still popular .
Posted by: Jake | October 16, 2007 at 05:09