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A very good poll - but one very good poll, certainly when comparing like-with-like. Certainly more bad news for the LDs, who are really being squeezed in national opinion polling now. Will be interesting to see the detail picked apart here and hopefully on UKPR as well.

A solid result - let's not shout "victory, victory". We've been given to believe we mght be 2 yrs out now, but then again we were "given to believe" we might be a month out! Let's use it as an energising springboard for more hard work to put Brown under pressure.

After all, as we've seen illustrated in the HoC this week, he doesn't really seem to do so well under pressure...

More Good News

Sunday Mail BPIX Poll

Con 41
Lab 37

Similar looking BPIX poll in Sunday Mail, but the interesting thing is that the TB/GB's have erupted again as Blair seems to be putting the boot in and accusing Brown of doing a Gore. Could make life interesting.

I am delighted to hear this lastest opnion poll that has been conducted by the Telegraph.

It is looking positive for the Conservative Party but there is still along way to go yet but we are on the right track.

To every Conservative supporter, member and activist I urge you all to keep up the good work in your constituencies.

To quote a hit song of the past:
Whoa, we half-way there!

This is the moment we will all remember as the beginning of the end of the puff of smoke that was New Labour. Thank God.


Indeed there is a similar story in the Times and Lord Falconer writes an article in there which is described as thinly veiled warning to Brown.

Times Article

England win the football - and the rugby, the Rhinos win the Grand Final in the proper rugby, and now this

Not a bad day really

As for most voters wanting to stay in the EU, perhaps most of them don't realise that the only way to avoid being forced into the type of EU superstate they would vote 'no' in a referendum to avoid, might be to leave. If a referendum were to be held and the answer was 'no', I suspect a way might be found to implement the Constitution, sorry Treaty, eventually.

However a 'no' vote would help, in the event of which Mr Cameron should promise to revoke any of its provisions that are brought in by the back door subsequent to a 'no' vote. Has he promised to take back some of the powers already handed over to the EU?

The treaty would create an EU president and foreign minister who would deciding foreign policy and would speak and sign treaties on our behalf. It would give Euro judges power to decide more of our laws, particularly asylum and criminal justice. I understood the Constitution would make the EU a legal entity as a nation state. What is at issue here is our survival as a sovereign nation state.

O/T I forgot:

Many happy returns to Maggie Thatcher!

All in all a pretty good day (Polls, Rugby Football and a Birthday)!

Just watched England win an unbelievable rugby match and make me so proud I almost cried like a little girl into my beer, then I came on here and saw the above headline....


From 11 points behind to 7 in front in two weeks...what hit did John Major take after the ERM?....or is this the largest, fastest collapse in modern history?

As has been pointed out on Politicalbetting it's Margaret Thatcher's 82nd birthday today.

Conservatives 7% ahead in polls, England beat the French in Paris.

Happy Birthday Lady Thatcher.

England in to teh final and this. Surely today is another black saturday for the dour scotsman.

Oberon, I think you may be getting a little ahead of yourself. The Conservatives have not won the next election yet, and the polls are as likely to go up as they are to go down - as has been shown in the past two months.

Real public opinion probably hasn't changed more than a few points in the past couple of years, and those of you who really believe the Conservatives would take 43% of the vote should think again.

This shows the party is on the right track and that public confidence in copycat Labour has eroded significantly. The party now must show unity, push on, and be ready to give our country the government it needs.

43-36-14 puts us in sight of the winning post with UKElect.

Con 316
Lab 283
LD 22
Oth 29

Con short by 8

Great news. Must build on it now and move forward as one,


What a fantastic day. Sporting success all round.A couple of good polls and an absence of trolls on Conhome. Perfect! Sleep well all!

Chris Palmer - the opinion polls have traditionally understated the Conservative vote when compared with actual election results. Yes there will be further shifts in the opinion polls, but it is worth remembering the above when assessing their significance.

Being a Tory this past year has been more like being on a rollercoaster, not the supporter of a political party!

One minute we're 11 points behind, then 7 ahead...It all seems like brilliant news- a little too brilliant maybe?

We all remember how quicky our lead evaporated when Brown came to power, loads of people on here were saying "Dave has failed, we are doomed, ditch him before it's too late". Well, David's skill and party unity has ensured we are back ahead. However, the polls are so volatile that I'm sure this can just as easily turn around again.

We must stay focused. No time for triumphalism!

In televised news all evening, Andy Burnham has been linked to another copycat act - incentivising marriage through tax reforms; Daily Telegraph front page headlines its Sunday edition with "Labour U-turn on marriage".

The more the media reports major adoption of Conservative policies, the lower Labour will drop in public estimation. Even the Times on Sunday carries a headline that "Blair turns on Brown as ‘empty’."

Judging from the excitement this latest poll has generated and the flow of postings on ConHome, I don't think Tim and Sam are really taking time out, or enjoying the international football and rugby!! Thanks, you incorrigibly dedicated guys!

eugene, it was several months after ERM before the Tories were finished

Sep 4 1992: 38%/38% (pre-Black Wednesday)
Oct 9 1992 38%/42% (post-Black Wednesday)
Nov 6 1992 34%/43%
Nov 19 1992 33%/49%
Dec 4 1992 33%/45%
Jan 8 1993 38%/42%
Feb 5 1993 37%/45%
Mar 5 1993 34%/45%
Apr 9 1993 34%/46%
May 7 1993 29%/43%
Jun 4 1993 27%/43%
Jul 2 1993 28%/42%
Aug 6 1993 28%/40%
Sep 10 1993 27%/45%

From September 1992, it took 8 months to fall below 30%. Since then, every year except 2007 has seen at least one poll (but usually many many more) with Tory support in the twenties. In that same 15 year period, only in February-April this year has Labour support fallen that low.

the opinion polls have traditionally understated the Conservative vote when compared with actual election results.
In February 1974 supposedly the Conservatives were on course for victory and yet lost. Labour had huge difficulties in 1950-51, 1966-70 and at times in the late 1970s notably in the Winter of Discontent, however they did recover huge amounts of support.

The difference in the 1980s and into the 1990s was that the Conservatives were in government - Governments are usually unpopular early on in the parliament and through into the middle of a parliament.

Labour support was hugely exagerated in opinion polls in opposition in the 1990s (ludicriously so, there has never been a time when Labour would have got more than 50% of the vote or the Conservatives less than 30% of the vote at any time in the 20th century) through into government until the fuel crisis in 2000 and then again after until about 2003 after which if anything people were reluctant to admit supporting Labour in many cases - it could even be a case of shy Labour voters now.

That said Labour will not now get back to the 150+ majorities of 1997 and 2001, probably they will get 60 to 120 next time and the Conservatives will see gains in votes and seats with the Liberal Democrats slipping back. I don't think David Cameron will ever be Prime Minister though.

Yes its a bright light at the end of a long dark tunnel however we must not be complacent and continue to be a disciplined forward thinking party. As they say in sport, "take each game at a time" meaning fight hard to gain each council seat that comes up, each euro seat and each westminster seat until every Labour and Lib Dem politician is beaten.
As one who has always supported DC I,m not surprised he and senior members of the shadow cabinet have turned things round because this tired, corrupt, government complete with its repulsive leader needs to be thrown out as soon as possible.
As DC said in his speech "God is this the best we can do"
I like the notion that Brown is taking the British people for fools, the fact is both him and Blair have been making fools of the UK ever since Blair became leader of the Labour party.
It must be one of the biggest con tricks in political history that the Labour party managed to hide its deep contempt for Britain long enough to achieve power, then to systematiclly destroy almost everything the British hold dear yet even todays polls still show Brown at 52% for trustworthiness.
As a Scotsman I,m even more astounded that English people hold him in such high regard despite the West Lothian question and his refusal to hold a euro referendum, as Sir Alex Ferguson would say to his players when they play badly "whats the matter with you people"
The fact is Brown, Blair, Darling, Reid represent the type of Scots I throughly despise. Yes I voted SNP at the scots elections, basically it was the only way to decapitiate the sitting Labour MSP.
Speaking of Scotland, I understand that Alex Salmond plans to stand against Brown in the next UK general election, can anybody think of the last time a prime minister lost his constituancy? and yes there is a good chance this will happen,,, might even be in the interests of the Tory party to stand aside and give the SNP a clear field to decapitate Brown.
Frankly the tory party in Scotland needs a complete re-think because I find the unholy alliance with Labour and the Lib dems to be totally unacceptible.
Lord Forsythe,s proposals of talking to the SNP were sound and maybe the best way is for independant minded tories in Scotland to go it alone and leave Goldie, Labour and Lib dem clique to their own devices.

Fantastic News! That combined with the fantastic win by the England Boys last night makes me extremely happy!! Keep cool heads though.... (and that applies to the England Team as well!)

Malcolm! The trolls come out to play when we are disunited.When the Individual gets clobbered by the Collective. No surprise that there are non on the site at present. Let us continue to discuss in a reasoned positive way, and continue to promote our excellent policies that Gord Almighty has chosen to nick! At least we are running the country in spirit if not in fact.
We now have a Parish Council by election on tuesday to fight, so the campaign trail calls this morning. Any opportunity to show off our spectacularly good PPC is to be welcomed, even the humble Parish Council. We must not let up until He really calls a general election.

All this does is show how fickle the voters are, swinging backwards and forwards like the pendulum of a demented cuckoo clock.

A uniform swing may give the Tories a single figure majority, but the indications are that swings will be larger in the marginals, particularly in the south.
In that respect I think this would translate into a comfortable Conservative overall majority - it looks like the 1979 election's share of the vote.

This poll boost provokes a tremendous "feel good" factor but it is really no more than this. Nortern Rock shares have climbed back to where they were before the loss of confidence, so what we must now do is to work to deserve this boost.
Our leader must win his personal ratings battle with Brown (he is doing very well but there is a long way to go), we must get back our reputation for managing the economy better than Labour (George Osborne has made a start but there is still a long way to go), our general policies must show a clear divergence from Labour's and enter the minds of the electorate. Above all, we must have able candidates in post working on their constituencies, especially the marginals.
All in all, very, very promising but still quite a long way from the finished article.

As Edison says it's is almost like dying and going to heaven this morning! However that moment will only be truly realised when this aboration that is new Labour is driven from power never to return.

I really do believe this should be our agenda.We must build policies aimed at driving down power to communities and ensuring decisions are taken as close as concievable to those affected by those decisions.

This approach is truly new with it we can tear up the statist rulebook.The politics of And andf the locaslist agenda will truly redraw the way politics is conducted in our nation.Let us pull together and get to it.

I notice that the latest ICM poll means it would be a two horse race for the Lib Dem leadership - 'cos only two of them would still get back in!

(Blogged here)

The large swings in the polls demonstrate that large sections of the public are undecided. They swung to the Conservatives, then back to Labour and now back to the Conservatives. The only consistent trend has been the decline of the Lib Dems. Today's papers indicate that Ming will be ousted before Christmas. Only when Ming is succeeded by Clegg or Huhne will the true picture emerge.

It should also be noted that ICM's marginal seat poll showed that the Conservatives would have won few, if any, marginal seats from Labour, just from the Lib Dems. PPCs in Labour-held marginal seats should be very relieved that Brown misread the polls and bottled the general election.

The real lesson from the last few weeks is that the public wants tax cuts (contrary to the recent mantra of sharing the proceeds of growth) and opposes green tax increases.

It would be timely for "loyalists" like Malcolm to admit that the critics of Osborne and Cameron have been proved right. We are not trolls, just worried that party policy had been hijacked by a green leftists like Hilton, Gummer and Goldsmith. The next few weeks will give Cameron the opportunity to reinforce his tax cutting and true Conservative credentials.

Must have something to do with Brown's empty headedness.

Wilson won in 1966 after the feel good factor, oh what a missed opportunity!

Quite the contrary Minority have been proved wrong yet again. Both Cameron and Osborne have done extremely well in the past few weeks as most loyal Conservatives expected they would.They have proved in action the politics 'of and'. It works.
I hope the constant anonymous carpers like you will start to acknowledge that fact.
Annabel, I'm impressed.Going campaigning for a Parish Council by election. Around here most parish councillors are not opposed by anybody and it certainly isn't a party political election.
Tim and Same. I thought you were taking the weekend off? The site seems just a busy as ever,you guys can't keep away from it can you? Anyway, thanks so much.

Moral minority - ICMs poll? It was Crosbytextor, taken over a period before and during the Conservative conference that said Labour would hold its marginals; so before the Conservative Conference had either happened or sunk in.
Doesn't matter today as with a 43% to 36% lead those marginals would fall like dominoes.

Sorry about the even more lamentable than usual typos in the above post Time and Sam!

No worries Malcolme.

Opening question from the BBC's Maxine Mawhinney to Prof John Curtice - Can we trust this poll?

Once again. I will restrain myself from getting too excited until we see how it levels out. Every seat would never go exactly the same way as the polls suggest-so the Lib Dems unfortunately would not really be reduced to a dozen seats in an actual election.

However, polls do tend to understate Tory support historically. This bounce seems to have come in the polls during a time of 'business as usual' rather than in response to a big event like Black Wednesday or the Fuel Crisis. That gives me confidence that we will hold up in the longterm.

The real dissaster now would be if Sir Ming were to be removed as Lib Dem leader!

I'm very pleased with the way things have gone over the last few weeks. In fact I wrote a post on the 27th of last month detailing how we could win the election if called. It turns out I wasn't far off. In that post there is some data that I came across while going through old Mori polls. The data shows that polls today may have less importance than they did in 1997.

When those polled before the election in 97 were asked: Is there a chance that you could change your mind before you vote 11% said yes. When asked the same question in 2005 35% said yes. This could be down to both parties drifting towards the centre ground. What it does show is that any party that performs well in the last few days before the election has a good chance of winning.

Story HERE

Its no good endlessly dissecting the Polls. The boys have done well these last two weeks and I say that as one of their former fiercest critics.

But I am waiting for the follow up. They have stumbled on the way. Stop expressing surprise and bewilderment and go on. Whats next?

The poll is excellent news! But we must take nothing for granted. Plenty of work to do to get a good majority. Since the conference, David Cameron and his shadow cabinet team have looked much more like a Government in waiting. This needs to continue, with a programme for Government balanced between ‘core vote’ issues such as toughness on crime, on the EU, on reducing the size of the state and reducing tax on one hand, and the ‘softer’ issues of quality of life, the environment/climate change, supporting families and addressing brokenness in society (e.g. through supporting marriage and the traditional family) on the other.

Ming being replaced might make things more difficult for us, but perhaps need not be the disaster Shaun Bennett (1411) suggests, if we have a strategy for such an event. As well as having Mr Cameron’s environmentalism, and our other ‘centre ground’ policies, we can make the point we, not the Lib Dems, will be likely to form the next Government and replace the discredited tired and out-of-steam Blair-Brown one, thus giving the best chance of the past giving way to the future.

If we need to spend much time on them, we could point out the Lib Dems are, or have been and therefore might be, a higher tax and spending party than even Mr Brown’s Labour. Furthermore, they are consistently EU-phile, and are always soft on crime - they hardly represent an answer to voters’ concerns.

For a start we need to wonder why 36% still intend to vote for this shambolic lot. In particular why does anyone have any confidence in them about financial matters after 10 years of record debts, Northern Rock, Brown's bungled budget and Darling's bungled "mini budget"? And lots more.

I suggest that the myths of the 18 years still hang over the Tories. No attempt has been made to look at Black Wednesday in any calm light, it suited the right to attack Major because of the Europe connection and the left attacked anyway. Children are told at their daddy's knee how the hard mercyless Tories destroyed people's jobs and too many Tories are not unhappy with this image and don't respond. We all "know" that the miserly Tories cut public services and too many Tories are not unhappy with this image and let the myth stand. John Redwood pointed out how taxes were cut and public services massively increased by the Tories, it seems to me that until this is picked up in a substantial way Brown is never going to get the low ratings he deserves.

I think we have to accept the Lib Dems probably will remove their leader. He was safe if there was an immediate election, but not now, with the figures in the polls heading towards the single figures when the Liberal/SDP Alliance collapsed after 1987 up to 1990.

But, far be it for me to defend them in any way, I think Sir Ming is not their main problem, and is getting a certain amount of unfair criticism. They do well when one of the two main parties is unusually unpopular, and do not thrive in closely fought situations, in general.

I don't accept the extrapolation often used that the Tories need to be about 11% ahead for a working majority. If the Tory vote rose to around 40 per cent, the electoral map would be very different and there would be scope to target marginals better. It's very clear we need more votes than Labour to win, but not an 11% lead.

Hear, Hear Joe James Broughton. I think we're in danger of treating the forensic work of (admittedly v clever) psephologists as a deterministic science. I simply don't believe that a 7 point lead over Labour, with the LibDems so reduced, would not translate to a comfortable Tory majority, whatever the algorithms on those fascinating websites say to the contrary.

I also think that the Ming dynasty is drawing to a close but don't feel so worried about it as some. What's the important LibDem leadership checklist?

(*) do you visit rent boys?
(*) do you lie about your sexuality, while smearing your opponents over theirs?
(*) do you have a medical drink problem?

Once they've removed anyone who answers "yes" to any of these - pretty much any LibDem you've ever heard of, apart from Sir Ming - they're apparently left with only a couple of blokes, neither of whom is going to capture the public imagination, or probably even retain their seats at an election. The point is that it doesn't matter who the LDs pick as leader: while we successfully welcome in voters from across the centre-right spectrum, there is no space for LibDems, other than to mouth off from the left of Labour, which is electorally toxic for them in the areas of the country where they're currently over-represented. They can change their leader as often as they wish; but there is no intellectually coherent solution for a party which calls itself liberal but which is packed to the gunnells (sp?) with socialist activists.

We should (by we I mean party leadership) be doing everything we can to attract the centre-right LDs facing oblivion onto our benches. As activists we'd have to hold our noses. But imagine the implosion in the LD ranks. I for one would welcome with open arms any LD MP if only because I detest their party more than sometimes seems reasonable to me. I think it's the combination of sanctimony with intellectual vapidity. To render them a rump of a few dozen MPs would be a highlight of an election I hope very much to live through.

Why the capitals for this post, editor?

I quote a poster on the Libertarian Alliance forum:

If any other Labour minister or ignorant journalist talks of how well Brown handled the various crises after he took over froim Blair, I’ll blow a fuse!

Brown caused the Foot and Mouth outbreak and worsened the floods by cutting the budgets for Pirbright and fcor flood defences. He also caused the financial chaos over Northern Rock because it was he that set up a system where neither the Bank of England nor the FSA knew who was in control, so they left it to the Brown-structured Treasury who made a hash of it.

All Brown did in these crises was (a) cause them; and (b) make various photo-op appearances. Yuk!

People are waking up.

What is most shocking is that it takes more than a 7% lead in the polls for us to form a parliament. Shumfing Wrong Shurely -ed

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