Tories remain 3% ahead according to YouGov - but voters remain unsure what a Cameron-led government would be like

The headline figures that YouGov have provided for tomorrow's Telegraph are exactly the same as we saw in The Sunday Times, one day after Gordon Brown 'bottled it'.

Within the poll there is much more for us to chew on:

• By 48% to 34% voters are now dissatisfied with Gordon Brown.
• Last month David Cameron was thought not to be a good leader (48% over 21%) - this month that position is reversed (40% over 36%).
• Labour have a 35% to 32% advantage on economic competence.  Disappointing but much, much narrower than just a month ago.
• 29% say they'd be "delighted" if a Conservative government under David Cameron was elected.  33% "wouldn't mind".  39% would be "dismayed".
• Lots of data is encouraging for David Cameron in the poll.  By 44% to 38% respondents think him genuine, for example.  60% are still unsure if there is substance behind his words, however, and 65% don't know what a Cameron-led Conservative government would be like.

See all of the data here.

Comments

[Matt Wright]

Excellent. The issue is to build on the coherence that became evident in the conference and illustrate what Modern Conservatives stand for while differentiating ourselves in a practical and positive way from Browns Labour.

[EML]

Some good figures for us. Brown's reputation has been badly hurt, but we need to somehow maintain the message that he is a coward, a bottler and an indecisive, arrogant individual.

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown is going to need to start pulling rabbit's out of hats to turn things around. This he cannot do because Labour have nothing new to offer. Ten years of power have left them unable to formulate new policy. They have grown complacent and self-satisfied, their hunger has gone. I'm surprised to see that Labour are still considered to be economically competent. More must be done to crush this misconception.

[Andy Stidwill]

With Ming as leader, the Lib Dems were stuck on 11%. Maybe with no leader at all, they might fall into single digits.

[Alan Douglas]

Surely we have reached the stage where all that matters about a DC-led government is that it is NOT led by you know who?

Alan Douglas

[His Eminence]

Why highlight the one question which is not good for the Tories in your headline? These are great figures. Old habits die hard at ConservativeHome!
Even the Daily Brownograph & Anthony King say its good news for thre Tories!

[Alan S]

This is a sobre poll. As the Telegraph says: this only gives us a hung parliament and that's BEFORE Clegg arrives. It won't be long before Osborne is cuddling up to Laws and other LibDems again.

[Patsy Sergeant]

How can the voting public possibly be expected to know or even trust that there is substance behind David Cameron's words, when they have had 10 YEARS of empty hot air being blown out from this government in Parliament. The 'trust' in politician's is lower than it has ever been, and 'spin' is a by-word, many voters have known no different, David Cameron would have to be a veritable messiah to 'move' everybody this close to having become leader of the party!

I think David Cameron is doing perfectly well, in the present circumstances - so many ill-advised policies adopted by this childish government, now beginning to come home to roost! David Cameron may be more youthful than Brown, but TIME is on DC's side NOT on Gordon Brown's!

[Northernhousewife]

No one can expect people to "know" what a Cameron-led Govt would be like. We been out of office for 10 years and have undergone profound changes in terms of emphasis and approach and personnel. Not until a de-comtaminated brand is tried can a "consumer" be sure of what they are getting.
In any event the enthusiasm that accompanied Blair into office cannot be repeated when people clearly remember the taste of bitter dissapointment.
There are real positives in these results: the collapse in Brown's credibility, judgement and strenght will make it easier to land blows in future. The corresponding rise in D.C's stock bodes well. The idea that so many would be delighted/not mind a Tory Govt is real progress.
Tweedlelibdem/Tweedlelibdum don't seem to be impacting! Bit depressing for them if they thought that a Cameron lookie-likie and a bit of media attention was the solution to their woes. Looks like the LibDem voters have realised this. Let's see if the membership cottoned on.
The Labour Party must be taking some consolation from the fact they haven't drooped more. However their rating looks more fragile now the public's confidence in their leader appears to be eroding. That Brown was an assett for a few months and now seems to be turning into a liability.
Sky News was great tonight ; Labour just can't seem to stop dropping the ball at the moment and the Tories don't seem to be missing the open goal. Yesterday's PMQs now seems to be being reported as "another drumming for GB".

[HighgateBoy]

Why highlight the one question which is not good for the Tories in your headline?

What do you expect from ContinuityIDS!

[Simon]

It is fantastic that the lead is being maintained, not just a flash in the pan because Brown had a wobble.

I can't think why people are worried by Nick Clegg. The Tories had a youthful David Cameron up against dour Gordon Brown, and were still getting roundly trounced before they bounced back and Labour shot themselves in the foot. There is one man who can save the Lib Dems, and that man is Charles Kennedy. Is it too late for him to enter now? I hope so. He clearly wants it though and will no doubt be waiting in the wings if the new Lib Dem leader ballses things up.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Blimey Alan S, are you serious? This is after where we were a month ago truly excellent news. As memories of the party conferences fade these polls offer a true refelection of the state of the parties.
Our lead won't last though if we keep putting up duds like Francis Maude on Question Time. He was very poor tonight, not even able to beat the unbearable George Galloway or the incompetent fatty Falconer. I'm very glad Fraser Nelson was on the show.

[Julian Melford]

It's interesting that New Labour are now out to soft-soap that they aren't the Nasty Party. Brown says he won't give more powers to the EU (after the Reform Treaty giveaway, that is).

Regional minister Caroline Flint uses the Yorks Post to canvass voters for what type of laws they want made. And just today, Brown is coming out with care-bear nonsense over "the state is the servant of the people" and how much he just lurves civil liberties.

Seriously - adopting a commitment to civil liberties against state power would be a big step forward for the Tories. Apart from being right in itself, it would also take away any reason for people to vote LibDem and wrong-foot TweedleHuhne and TweedleClegg.

[Treacle]

Maude up on Question time?

No Tories then.....

[Opinicus]

I am sorry but this is not great news. It is better than the opposite but it means we have lost momentum. As I warned after the conference, we had six weeks to come up with powerful new initiatives to keep the momentum going and kick Brown whilst he was down and before Clegg can start up. One swallow doesn't make a summer (or an orgy as we should probably update it in the new model Tory Party). Action this day or repent at leisure.

England and Education; Health and Wealth.

[Edison Smith]

Encouraging, but there should be no resting on laurels. The key is the Big Mo - momentum - and we need to continue getting shadow cabinet ministers in the spotlight. Coulson seems to have helped with this, but there should be no let-up - even during another parliamentary break next week.

And if DC continues with these press briefings such as the one on Tuesday, he needs to raise their profile so that they are the primary source for political hacks and sketch writers, eclipsing anything the government announces. The Labour government needs to look completely irrelevant and tired already, like the Tories in 1997.

As for the Lib Dems, I can't see much to worry about. Another of Clegg's leadership speeches this week was awful - his delivery is terrible - and I think they will continue to flounder.

Couldn't believe Question Time - I actually found myself agreeing with Falconer on the Lords and smacking children. Maude was weak, as is May when she is on there. We need more Vaizey/Osborne/Herbert vigour and less of the fringe characters please.

[Goldie]

I would sum this up as follows: on 'character', Brown has received a blow from his handling of the non-election; on 'competence', the public is, for the first time since Black Wednesday, genuinely divided whether the Tories or Labour are preferable; on 'charisma' Cameron is clearly ahead; but on 'candor' and particularly 'gravitas' there is severe doubt about Cameron.

Right now, his perceived lack of gravitas is the one thing standing between Cameron and Nr. 10.

So: more authenticity. More seriousness. More grittyness. More adults around him. And fewer trendy gimmicks.

[Scotty]

"I am sorry but this is not great news. It is better than the opposite but it means we have lost momentum."
Jonathan, compare all aspects and details of this poll with the figures over the last few months. Also add in the post conference bounce and extra coverage during the lead up to the GE that did not happen, and then look at how often we have been on 41% in the last 15 years.
This is a good poll and means that despite the drop in media attention in the last couple of weeks we are maintaining our lead.
I agree with others posters regarding Questiontime, where are the media performers from all the parties?? You can always tell if Labour are having a good or bad week by who is chucked on the show (sorry, who is prepared to answer the phone), by the way, the Blairites for all their faults are the more loyal and prepared to defend the party line when the going gets tough even under Brown...What does that say about the PM and his cabal?
The show is becoming very bland and a pale shadow of its self with the merry go round of just a small pool of not very great performers almost becoming regulars.

[Derek L. Piper]

This'll be a little bit off the thread topic. But I happened to read all the above comments before I had a chance to watch Question Time online tonight, and therefore I despaired at the prospect of seeing Mr. Maude up against Galloway & co. .... Yet you know, as far as what Maude actually said I think he was mostly fine. He's just not a good public speaker, on television at least. Even his good points were met with the audience's weak applause at best, because he simply cannot put any emotion behind what he's saying. He should be kept off the show.

And despite fatty F representing everything in a party that makes me want to throw my laptop out the window, we should all agree with what he said about 'smacking', as well as his attempts to defend the Lords - in the face of Galloway and Ms. Brainless.

[Patriot]

Great news and well deserved. Brown's fall from grace looks set to continue - this from today's Telegraph:

""Mr Brown's promise to start a "deep clean" of all hospitals was dismissed as a "gimmick" last night. In a written answer, the Department of Health has admitted it has "no plans" to monitor the programme centrally or to assess the effectiveness of deep cleaning.""

Now that HAS to be a good subject for next week's PMQs - how on earth can anyone trust this man??

[Paul Kennedy]

With Ming as leader, the Lib Dems were stuck on 11%. Maybe with no leader at all, they might fall into single digits.

Posted by: Andy Stidwill | October 25, 2007 at 22:58

You never know their ratings might rise. ;).....before they slump back soon after they announce their new leader

[Paul D]

To still be beyond the psychologically important 40% mark is good news. The Labour figure is higher than any of us would like, but we can't do too much about that at the moment, the party just needs to keep working hard, pulling in the same direction and consolidating its poll figure at or above the present number

[Dale]

"Surely we have reached the stage where all that matters about a DC-led government is that it is NOT led by you know who?"

Voldemort?

[Comstock]

If you believe electoralcalculus.co.uk (and I'm not sure if I do) that still gives a Lab majority of 18.

I can't see the LibDems going that low, though.

[Michael McGowan]

Tim didn't "highlight" the one point that was bad for the Tories: he mentioned it in a list of other positive points and then pointed out that even on that issue, the position had improved a lot. In any case, some of you seem to be suffering from short memories: the loss of their reputation for economic competence was what did for the Tories in the 90's. Reversing that negative perception is key and it looks like there is still work to be done.

Shouldn't Highgate Boy be blogging on Platform 10, where those who support the NuLabourlite project talk to each other and disengage from the real world?

[Richard Woolley]

It wouldn't necessarily lead to a hung parliament when you taken into account regional variations. The middle classes do not like Brown very much, they don't warm to him the same way they tolerated Blair. I think that the 'Brown bounce' has taken place in safe Labour areas.
I reckon that Labour will lose many marginal seats at the next election to the Tories in the South of England, London, East Midlands and possibly the West Midlands too. Labour are also vulnerable to the SNP north of the border.

[Yet Another Anon]

How about replacing the ? in place of the picture of who leads the Liberal Democrats with a dead parrot?

It's still not yet 3 years into the parliament and governing parties usually are in difficulties a few years in and opinion polls frequently exagerate those problems, the media loves opinion polls because they generate stories for them, 2 or 3 years into a parliament stories that the government is second or third "in the polls" can then be rolled out and then it is rare for the government position not to be better at the General Election than "the polls" say it is, then the party that wins a majority sees a surge in it's showing in "the polls" and the media talks about one party governments and the Lead opposition party being in permanent opposition or even ceasing to exist.

Many who voted SNP in the Local and Scottish elections merely wanted more devolution or were attracted to other parts of the SNP programme. In Westminster elections many will switch back to the national parties (as in UK national) and the Labour vote firmed up quite a bit in the run in to Mays elections in Scotland, Labour and the Liberal Democrats will lose seats in Southern England; the Liberal Democrats will also probably lose back to Labour what were in the past safe Labour seats mainly in Northern England. Though the Liberal Democrat MPs will be helped a lot by tactical voting.

It's still more than 1.5 years to the General Election.

Whether it is Chris Huhne, Nick Clegg or indeed Norman Baker will probably make little difference from what would have happened if Menzies Campbell had been Liberal Democrat leader.

[passing leftie]

I can't believe that so many people care so little about how the country is governed that they will jump allegiance at the drop of a hat, one way, and then the other.

[David Belchamber]

A corner has been turned when the alternative was downhill all the way. Let's hope that many more conservatives will be able to be seen by the electorate - for all the right reasons, of course - and let us hope that room will be found in the shadow government for some of the older and maturer MPs who still have something to offer.
The next phase surely is preparing for government and we must be ready whenever the time comes.
I think Brown is already beginning to look less robust than Ming......