The fallout

5.55pm: Portillo says that Brown has gone from walking on water to being sunk.  The Sun's Trevor Kavanagh says Brown has committed a huge unforced error. 

5.45pm: Join the Facebook group - Brown is a bottler

5.14pm: Andrew Marr, who has just interviewed Gordon Brown, tells BBC News 24, that Gordon Brown has more or less ruled out an election in 2008 as well as this autumn.

5.10pm: Absolutely 100% confirmed.  Brown has told BBC that election is off. 

5pm: Steve Richards of The Independent is accusing Brown of having made a "colossal mistake".  Kevin Macquire is saying that all of this episode has only served to unite the Tories.  John McDonnell MP says that Labour will now be seen as the party of spin again.  Can't disagree with any of that.

4.46pm: News of the World/ ICM survey gives the Conservatives a 6% lead in the 83 most marginal seats.  This would easily deprived Gordon Brown of his majority.  Fraser Nelson has more here.  Andrew Marr must savage Brown on this.  He must not be allowed to say that the electoral register was the reason for him not going to the country.  He's not going to the country because he knows he would lose.

4.30pm: Sky is reporting that Brown intends to blame the electoral register for his decision to delay. It has nothing to do with polls that will show Labour doing badly against the conservatives tomorrow. Oh no.

4.30pm: Ming Campbell - quick as a flash on BBC News 24 accuses Brown of losing his nerve.  Brown, he says, has traded on his strength, statesmanlike qualities and the end of spin but he's thrown all of those qualities away.  With no autumn election the LibDems may, of course, take the opportunity to ditch Ming.  In recent weeks his party was squeezed - first by Brown and then by Cameron.

Comments

[MIKE]

THE CONSERVATIVES ARE ON 44% to 38% acorrding to ICM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wahoo!!!!!!!!!

[MIKE]

Were on 44% labour on 38% have we ever been on 44%??? it feels so good!!!!!!!

[Sally Roberts]

Fantastic news! Onwards and upwards!!!

[Teck Khong]

If the Conservatives progressively build up substance and momentum, Neil Kinnock will gag on his words!

Res ipsa loquitur.

[Jaz]

That's a huge lead in marginals, this is a gift from Brown.

1) He lost a lead he built up.
2) Labour got overconfident and said they wanted to "finish the tories off"
3) Tory party reunited.
4) Tory conference went very well. DC, Osbourne made great speeches.
5) Tories end up with lead in the polls.

It's a miracle.

[jh]

ha!

[Robbie]

Gordon Brown must be verbally crucified about this. The public MUST NOT forget he has put himself before his country. Now the polls show the Conservatives on the up the party must stick together to ensure an election win when Brown finally has the stones to calls one.

[EML]

Apparently nothing in 2008 either - which gives us a solid timeframe to plan for.

[EML]

Why no Conservative spokesmen on News 24? They just keep that idiot Nick Robinson and Michael White from the Grauniad.

[Steve Garner]

Yes, this is all great news. However, those regular contributors here who have lambasted Cameron in the last few months should hang their miserable heads in shame. Cameron's pulled us up here by our bootlaces despite the party. I hope the critics on Con Home will now shut up and properly work for the end of this truly awful government and the return of a Tory government.

[Edison Smith]

I'm sitting in my chair, beer in hand after an epic England win, and absolutely LOVING Brown losing all his credibility.

Great weekend!

[John Moss]

The Grand Old Duke of Fife has demonstrated that he is more Clucking Fist than Clunking Fist.

Going out now for a celebratory Kircaldy Fried Chicken!

[Edison Smith]

Portillo sticking the knife in on News 24.

I've never known the Tories to be so united for at least 15 years.

[David]

EML - they just put Portillo on, and he's been smashing his way through their biased questioning quite wonderfully. The chap on there actually suggested that Cameron and Campbell should have egg on their faces, and not Brown...

[EML]

Portillo quite good on News 24 - it seems he can attack Brown as well as he does Cameron quite regularly.

[Anthony Broderick]

That's a bit much Steve. Cameron and his team let us down for a while and now they're doing us proud- grassroots have little or nothing to do with it (unfortunately). And apart from the commenters CH's editors couldnt have been any more supportive over recent months.

[David Brackenbury]

Oh dear oh dear, where to start!!

1) Neil Kinnock, wising to "grind the bastards into the dust" showed his true Sheffield qualities again!
2) Gordon Brown's stunt with the troops in Iraq and they even spun the figures
3) A brilliant conference, brilliant policies and, of course David's speech

This is a defining moment in politics. Gordon Brown will struggle to regain his own integrity and Labour will struggle to present its message and policies. We have the initiative and must use it!

[Brian Wood]

I spoke at a local meeting this morning and when asked about the possibility of a GE said that Brown would bottle it. He has acted just like the Grand Old Duke of York, marching up to the top of the hill and down again.

Nice to have it confirmed!

[Edison Smith]

I'm not gay, but if I were in the same room as Mr Cameron, I'd give him a juicy big kiss.

He's excellent on News 24.

Change. Change. Change. A government "clinging onto power".

[EM]

Cameron great on News 24, going on about Labour clinging to office and Brown being forced to make a humiliating climbdown, showing him to be indecisive and weak after ramping up expectation through gimmicks and falsehood in the expectation of an election.

[MrB]

"Weak, Weak, Weak!" Springs to mind...

I so wish we could've had this election to give Gordon Brown's smug face a kicking!

This is all down to the hard work of the party at Blackpool and especially to Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne.

Just watching David Cameron on News 24 now. How can anyone say Brown is stronger and more principled than him now, after this seismic turnaround? You couldn't ask for a more stark contrast between two leaders.

[Iain Lindley]

Just watched Cameron on News 24, great statement.

[Votedave]

HOORAY! YES! AHA! This is the best day for the Conservative Party since 10 April 1992. :D

[Jones]

want to kiss Cameron right now....

[Simon]

The commentators are SLAMMING into Brown too - especially Trevor Kavanagh and Adam Boulton (who's doubtless hurt about being snubbed for the BBC).

The Tory poll lead can only burgeon in the coming weeks...

What an amazing day.

[Andrew James]

We must ensure that this sorry episode causes Brown LASTING DAMAGE. As for the NotW poll, a 6% lead in marginals is worth much more - I will be keen to see the detail, to confirm how the projected Conservative gains were calculated - I think it is estimated that we would gain 49 of 83 marginals with such figures.

DC's on News 24 looking calm, assured and Prime Ministerial. We now have to wait until 2009 - possibly 2010 if everything goes wrong, the economy included.

[Paul Oakley]

"The right hon. Gentleman is afraid of an election, is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit? Could not take it? Cannot stand it?"

Hee hee hee.

[Joseph Brayson]

I think its now time for Parliament to decide in a motion of no confidence against the Government.

[Patsy Sergeant]

This is just such good, good news, and hand-in-hand with it is the fact that NOW so many more people KNOW who DC is, they have seen George Osborne being efficient and understandable on Question Time AND getting a lot of applause - a lot of people are encouraged by this and firm up their ideas because of such approval shown on TV.

Onwards and upwards we WILL get there!! YES!!!

[eugene]

The turkey (sorry, chicken) did not vote for Christmas. He has no courage nor principles . The British voters despise that. He is dead in the water if he is less than good as Prime Minister- his Iraq opportunism has exposed him as anything but spectacular- a political moron on top of being a sour old bore.

[eugene]

What is this about Labour releasing the news through a 'sympathetic' Andrew Marr. His salary is paid by all BBC license payers (and most do not and never will vote Labour).

Serious questions need to be asked about this and Marr must quit.

[Londoner]

I posted this on 23 Sept: "There will not be an election this year. Brown is just playing games: the risk for him is much too great. Nor does the argument that we called for one in June really wash: by not calling an election immediately Brown denied the validity that it was "needed". Therefore if he goes now it will be seen as just naked opportunism."

A little bit of gloating at the expense of the Editor is now clearly in order!! However, we should be grateful if the speculation over the Conference kept everyone on best behaviour - with gratifying results. Would it now be too much to hope that some semblance of the same self-discipline can now be maintained?

[Northernhousewife]

Sky are really not letting him off the hook. They rightly point out he knew about the electoral register problems so he can't blame it on that or the young "Turks" to whom has given senior posts.
They seem abit cross about Marr's exclusive, saying its business as usual "behind closed doors."
They are missing Blair who had one abiding philosophy [ only one ]:
" Don't worry about the Liberal Democrats. Never, never underestimate the Conservatives."
It is no good giving the leadership advise on how to handle this and complaining if they make mistakes. We make a mistake and fulfil Brown's low expectations if we don't get behind them now.
Traditional Tory called me a CCHQ troll.
Yes and proud.

[Man in a Shed]

The polls are good - but we could have been in government in 3 weeks time and that is a real shame for the country.

Instead we are going to get tax, spin and spend from Gordon Brown.
£200 on Council tax reported in the telegraph today 9 which they will try to blame on Conservative councils ).

they are tired, incompetent, arrogant and deceitful. I feel sorry for the country continuing to have this failed government and the man who has hijacked it and has no mandate.

[M Dowding]

Great Joy!! Enjoy the scenario and be wary of the "rat in a corner syndrome". I have been so depressed post the grammar school debacle and I did not vote for DC. Now I would sacrifice my life for him!! Now push home carefully the advantage. On last week's showing I apologise humbly for suggesting this to such a great team!

[Tanuki]

Brown's frit!

Problem is, that this leaves the country with a wanton tax-and-spend socialist government - led by Gordy - for the next three years.

In this three years, will the economy truly go to pot to the point where Broon's supposed 'prudence' gets shot to hell? If so, and we get in on the back of his economic mismanagement, will the country be so well-disposed to us when we have to apply another round of tough, Thatcherite medicine to put things right?

[Editor]

Steady on, M Dowding!

[Sam S]

Great! Perhaps the DC dissenters will now shut up.

[Radical Tory]

This looks good for us, but let's not get too cocky. I wonder if Cameron will be able to keep the momentum? I'm not hopeful but we'll see.

[Edison Smith]

Sky much better with their coverage than BBC News 24 - again.

The BBC shroud themselves in lefties - the guy in the studio isthat bald leftie who writes for the Guardian, and every interview has been with a Labour MP.

One Scottish Labour MP: "Brown never said he'd hold an election. It's all the medias fault."

Err, that shows a certain loose grasp of reality! I hope the SNP give that particular MP an electoral beating whenever an election DOES come. They all just seem a bit punch-drunk and amateur, which never occured under Blair.

What also never occured under Blair was the feeling that the PM is not in full control of events. Alastair Campbell made sure of that.

Brown's team look deeply amateur and naive, leaving Brown terribly exposed. But no one can be sacked because the media will jump on that as panic.

Great day.

[Gwendolyn]

My cup runneth over, what with this and the Rugby. And yes why did they have the Guardian bloke on for so long? I'll give him his due, he does try to be even-handed but he can't keep it up all the time, and when he started to waver they should have given more slots to the Cons. The other thing is, why is the announcement given to the BBC, why was a statement not given to all the news channels. Just shows, labour have the BBC in their pockets and that is a disgrace. As a news item, available to all outlets fine, but a private interview with Marr? No way, it's a disgrace.

[Patriot]

Own goal of the most humungus proportions - the tide has turned.

About to open champagne.

What a wonderful day.

G'night all.

[Londoner]

An important point about all of this is that, to the extent that the election scare forced the party to accelerate the announcement of some policies at Blackpool, it "revealed" to certain rather unperceptive doubters of the fact, that Cameron is as solidly Conservative as most of the rest of us.

Do not listen to those who claim he executed some sort of U turn. The only thing that changed was that he moved from Phase 1 (get us listened to again by showing we can talk about more than immigration, Europe and tax cuts) to Phase II (nonetheless don't forget that these core issues are also important and need robust, but nonetheless credible, policies to address them) with a bit more alacrity than might otherwise has been the case.

Cameron also showed steely leadership under a great deal of fire (both from in front of and behind him), thereby earning some personal spurs, battle honours even, in addition to demonstrating his true colours. Do not think either that we won't, or shouldn't, hear more about the AND areas (environment, world poverty etc). On the Gummer/Goldsmith report - fine that some ideas were kicked out (such as the silly supermarket car parking issue - actually a point about small businesses being sweezed by the supermarkets, not global warming) - but now there is more time to go through the rest of it more thoroughly to put together a really credible policy on global warming. It probably needs 4 to 6 months of really serious, and quiet, consultation before coming out with a really good official polciy for the whole area in March or June.

It is also worth noting that we have not announced the Full Monty on our tax policy. Sure stamp duty and Inheritance Tax were a very alluring glimpse of leg, but we also know that fuller proposals on family and business tax have yet to see the light of day. The bolt on those areas should now remain unshot for a considerable period. Nonetheless the commentators think we have a lot more policy - and we do in many areas - and there is now time to consider the results of all the policy groups at more leisure, whilst at the same time right now allowing the dramatic change in character issue between Brown and Cameron to run.

There are some who may profess disappointment that there is no early election, as we might have won it. We might well have deprived Brown of a majority - but we undoubtedly have a much better chance of getting one of our own in 2009, and, furthermore, we can win in much better prepared state.

An election now would have been a constitutional abuse, so the wider national interest in that sense has also been served. The fact that the Duke of Funk marched us up to the top of the hill for entirely venal reasons, and now has marched us down again in the same spirit, is incidental to this constitutional position, although not at all incidental to an objective assessment of the unpleasant and flawed character that is Gordon Brown.

[David Sergeant]

A great day indeed. Loved reading all the blogs above, you are all really nice clever clogs. But as the great man once said -"We may allow ourselves a brief period of rejoicing." Now we have got to make it stick, we must break the habit of 15 years and go after Labour night and day - together. No letting something go because it is not entirely clear, no sitting on a safe majority and not getting hands dirty.

Just to get minds concentrating. some suggestions;-

Brown has taken a golden legacy and turned us into the most indebted western nation.

France, once far worse is now less indebted. The French PM is telling France they are bankrupt. Where the hell does that put Brown?

Brown is now trying to use public sector pay rises just like Wilson and Callahan. The man is bankrupt.

Can we now have the confidence to make positive noises about the 18 years? Huge increases in public service expenditure etc.

Brown's bungleing has undermined the centures old asset of our banking system. Northern Rock humiliated us and turned us into a banana republic. (As stated by one of Brown's ex-advisers.)

Can't go on any more, my index fingure is hurting.

[Richard]

This really is great news! We had a great conference in Blackpool, with all the Shadow Cabinet giving great speeches. The speeches from others such as IDS were also fantastic to watch.

It now looks like the election will not be held until 2009 or 2010 so we have a long way to go. In that time we will have lots more local elections, London Mayrol elections and European Elections, not to mention the issue of the referendum on the EU Constitution. There is a lot of work to be done. Labour will not lie down and die on the basis of one very, very bad weekend. We have to stay united, keep up the fight and never let them gain the lead again!