Populus/ Times poll increases pressure on Brown

An hour ago we reported that Labour's lead had shrunk to 4% in a YouGov/ Channel 4 survey.

A Populus survey for The Times confirms the trend.  Labour are on 39% (down 2%) and the Tories are on 36% (up 5%).  The LibDems are on 15% (down 2%).

Other findings:

He has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister

• Cameron up eight points at 38 per cent since a week ago
• Brown down three points at 56 per cent
• Campbell- up three points 22 per cent

He has the answers to the big problems facing Britain

• Cameron-  31 per cent - up one point since last week
• Brown- 39 per cent-- down eleven points since last week
• Campbell 20 per cent-- minus four points since last week

Comments

[Peter Coe]

These figures seem to show a repeat of where Brown got his bounce from: not so much from switchers from other parties but from undecideds or those who say they did not vote in 2005 (plus some from minor parties).

In short, opinion is crystalising in favour of two party politics again to an extent possibly not seen since before the formation of the SDP Liberal Alliance.

It will be interesting to see what those pollsters who measure certainty to vote are showing: suspect both Labour and the Tories have very high figures at the moment.

[Hudson]

Guardian poll has a Labourlead of 1%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cleo]

ICM
Lab 39, Con 38

[Derek L. Piper]

And even better....from the current Graniaud online headline:

"The new ICM poll, from random telephone interviews of adults, shows Labour on 39%, Conservatives 38% and Liberal Democrats 16%."

A 1% lead.

[Comstock]

Gawd just seen this on BBC online....

A few months ago I was convinced Labour were gonna lose the election. A few weeks ago I was convinced they were gonna win and win big. 24 hours ago I thought Cameron was effectively playing for a reduced Lab majority, not victory. Now I don't know what to think!

I don't want to trivalise this into a game, but I can never remember a time when the 'scores' yo-yo'd this much! I'm glad I'm not a member of either party, because if nothing else both sides are gonna have a few sleepless nights in common. This is anyone's election.

Apart from Ming's of course.........

[Hudson]

Guadian Poll revised - Labour 38% conservative 38%

[Alistair]

I wouldn't get too excited Derek

A certain amount of "Cameron Bounce" was inevitable after the media spun the Blackpool non-event in his favour but it's unlikely to last much beyond the weekend.

Cameron offers insubstantial waffle and concessions to the rich.

Our Prime Minister offers national leadership.

[Andrew James]

Some projections using UK Elect:

Lab 40 Con 36 LD 13 gives:

Lab 364
Con 247
LD 5
LAB MAJ 80

Lab 39 Con 36 LD 15 gives:

Lab 355
Con 249
LD 12
LAB MAJ 62

Lab 39 Con 38 LD 16 gives:

Lab 341
Con 264
LD 12
LAB MAJ 34

Of course, Lib Dems won't lose as many seats as this unless there's complete meltdown. The problem is, we can't afford for the Lib Dems to do too badly, because it makes it easier for Labour to get an overall majority. I still think that Brown will go to the country next week. He would look extremely foolish not to after allowing such a collosal build-up and the bias in FPTP allows for the Conservatives to do well without depriving Labour of their overall majority.

[James Burdett]

The Guardian Poll has changed to dead level. Well at the time of writing anyway...

[Jacob]

Guardian:
38 / 38 / 16

[Andrew James]

38/38/16:

Lab Maj 16

[Steve Green]

Labour Majority *16*, oh dear oh dear.

[David]

Our Prime Minister offers ...slogans nicked from the BNP and speeches nicked from the US.....

[Jacob]

In some way I wish there was still a Labour Lead and that there was an election.

Because..... I think three weeks of Cameron speaking like yesterday and I think we'd have a hung parliament. I can not underestimate the significance of yesterdays speech. While I may be a Soho Tory, for the first time in years the Tories have inspired my Father and brother.

Cameron finally got the balance right yesterday.

He finally was able to talk to Soho Tories and Traditional Tories. He built that coalition that made the Labour Party so successful. The two wing are not as different as some people seem to think.

For the first time I could see Cameron as PM, I could see him addressing the UN, meeting the US President etc. THIS is important, and I think many people now think this.

[Gordon Hetherington]

Don't believe any polls for at least a week. Every party has a post conference bounce.

[Steve Green]

Jacob, spot on.

[Matt Wright]

I think what is going on with the polls over the last few months is that there is a particular section of undecideds. That group is made up of two different factions. A faction of swing voters who were interested in Cameron and in voting Conservative but wanted a clearer idea of the agenda and became frustrated. Another, but perhaps smaller, faction of more traditional Conservatives who were unsure about Cameron. The Brown bounce muddied the water and some of these factions were telling pollsters they would vote for Brown or for other parties. Now as Cameron and the Conservatives make their agenda clearer the two factions I describe start to come over to us. In an election this would happen even more. If after a good speech we can draw almost neck and neck, then after a full blown election we may be looking at pulling ahead. Interesting times.

Matt

[Paul Oakley]

There will be no imminent election. Brown fudged the Granita dinner and fumbled the coup against Blair a few months ago. He's not going to risk his coronation when there's still 2 1/2 years for him to go. Onwards and upwards people.

[sjm]

Our Prime Minister offers even greater personal and national debt.

Our Prime Minister offers a 'mediocre' NHS.

Our Prime Minister offers a massive increase in murder.

our Prime Minister offers our military no plan, no hope, no supplies.

Hurray for our Prime Minister (best friends, multi-millionaires Ronnie Cohen and Geoffrey Robinson, but they don't count as nasty rich because they are NuLab)!

[Andrew Landriani]

This is good news, except that its not news! Cameron has been inspiring Conservatives to do well since last spring at least. The summer saw a pause which his speech has now overcome.

The best is yet to come!

[Alex Swanson]

"Our Prime Minister offers national leadership."

Apparently modelled on Stalin. (Who incidentally was also not a native of the majority nation in the Union he ran, and also suffered from a physical infirmity (a bad arm). Furthermore, Stalin wasn't the son of a priest, but did study for the priesthood for a while, and achieved supreme power only after succeeding a more charismatic leader. Spooky huh.)

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown will look very foolish and as if he has something to hide if he doesn't hold an election soon. What does gordon Brown fear most? The Conservative party or the British economy. Debt-driven demand can't last forever and when the money runs out we will see just how much of an economic guru Gordon Brown is, that is if he doesn't hold an election. Gordon Brown is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.