Great insidery article by Rachel Sylvester in today's Telegraph about divisions within Team Brown:
"For years, so much attention was paid to the TB/GBs that nobody noticed the GB/GBs, but now the splits in the Brown camp are starting to emerge. Downing Street civil servants, observing it all from the high ground of political neutrality, say, privately, that the inner circle is in meltdown. Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and Douglas Alexander are all desperately trying to avoid being blamed. "They're fighting like ferrets in a sack," says one senior MP.
One minister even thinks we are already seeing the start of a leadership battle. "This is all about themselves and not about the Labour Party at all, they are thinking Gordon will be gone soon and they're the heirs, they're acting like presidential candidates. "One of the reasons this election stuff got so out of hand was because they all wanted to be able to claim credit for the victory."
There has, clearly, been a generational divide between the "young turks" and the "grey beards" over the timing of the election. More significant, however, is a genuine political disagreement between what you could call the Martians and Venusians in the Brownite solar system.
The first category, led by Mr Balls and backed by more junior figures such as Ian Austin, Mr Brown's Parliamentary aide, sees politics as a fight to the death in which they must destroy their opponents. They operate through dividing lines and aim to use facts and figures to brilliant effect. It is no coincidence that Mr Balls's Department for Children, Schools and Families is reviewing the way in which grammar school ballots are run – a clear attempt to exploit Tory divisions on the theme.
The Venusians, who include Mr Alexander and the Miliband brothers, are less macho. They wouldn't mind killing off the Tories but that is not their primary aim. They have a more emotional approach to politics: they want to enthuse the voters with positive reasons to vote Labour as well. For them it is more important to convey a sense of optimism than to smash their opponents to bits.
The truth is that the tensions in the camp reflect the divisions within Gordon Brown himself. He is both Big Clunking Fist and Moral Visionary."
After years of 'Tory splits' stories it's good to see focus on Labour's internal divisions.
William Hill has the betting on next Labour Leader: 1/1 D Miliband, 8/1 H Benn, 8/1 A Johnson, 10/1 E Miliband, 12/1 F Balls, 14/1 Y Cooper, 14/1 H Harman, 14/1 D Alexander, 14/1 A Darling, 16/1 J Smith, 20/1 J Denham, 25/1 D Browne, 33/1 R Kelly, 33/1 J Parnell, 33/1 A Milburn, 50/1 J Straw, 50/1 C Clarke.
There's also the looming Huhne-Clegg showdown although Guido thinks we shouldn't be talking about it. So shush everyone!
Our shadow cab team look like giants compared to that lot.
We need our shadow cab team to come forward and engage their opposite numbers!
Posted by: HF | October 09, 2007 at 13:06
"Our shadow cab team look like giants compared to that lot.
We need our shadow cab team to come forward and engage their opposite numbers!"
Absolutely. Labour's shadow cabinet in the run-up to 1997 actually opposed, whereas too often we seem to be opposing each other. We now have momentum and people are listening to us. It should be the job of each shadow cabinet member to be constantly talking on tv/radio, constantly writing for the press or talking to journalists. We need every shadow cabinet member to be a household name. Fast.
Posted by: Craig Barrett | October 09, 2007 at 13:19
Aha, so it was Ed Balls' EB/GB'ies
who caused Brown's election heebie jeebies
Posted by: Chad Noble | October 09, 2007 at 13:21
I am much amused that you spelt Purnell wrongly! I can't stand the slimy scum bag. I heard him speak once where he told an enormous lie almost as though he was doing it for the sake of being dishonest!
Posted by: Richard | October 09, 2007 at 13:31
It is important that a clear and unitifed message runs from all the shadow cabinet. The advtanage Labour has with it less talented line up is they are willing to repeat the party meme-de-jour, as they don't really have many thoughts of their own anyway.
This does allow for a drip drip drip type communication with the electorate. ( They are doing this now with the Non-DOM taxation proposal. )
We must clearly counter this and present our own prism though which we would like the electorate to see the actions of the government.
The one thing New Labour spends all its resources (including disgracefully government resources and policy) doing is campaigning.
Posted by: Man in a Shed | October 09, 2007 at 13:36
Looking further down at the odds, a hung parliament is still very generous at 7/4 (coming down from 2/1). Put £400 on that and you have yourself a £700 net profit! Enough to pay off my car insurance for the next 2 years!
As for Miliband, those odds are pisspoor for succeeding Brown. He hasn't got the drive, charisma or anything approaching an aura of statesmanship to be a Prime Minister...
...and yet he is probably the best out of a bunch of very sour grapes.
Posted by: Jon | October 09, 2007 at 13:41
This morning’s BBC News featured a Labour MP criticising the treaty and its red lines. Now under pressure from both the Conservative Party and the media, Labour’s tensions and internal divisions are going to become increasingly apparent and damaging. It’s my view that Gordon Brown lacks the skills to build unity, being better at making enemies than friends.
Posted by: Mark Fulford | October 09, 2007 at 13:57
John Redwood wrote about the young Turks in the Labour ranks. Gordon Brown was naive if he thought he could remain king of the castle unopposed. The interesting thing about this is that those younger elements under Brown already believe a power vacuum has emerged after the departure of Blair. That power vacuum has been caused because Brown lacks a portfolio of ideas and the young Turks are more than ready to come foward with their own blueprints for the future.
Posted by: Tony Makara | October 09, 2007 at 14:14
It seems utterly bizarre - if true - that Brown's underlings are vying over who is to be his successor, when he's been Labour party leader (that's what I like to call him, not Prime Minister) for 100 days.
I know one has no friends in politics, but it's still surprising.
And looking at that list of contendors, it is quite apparent Labour have no one in line capable after Brown. At least with the Tories, although DC is the only show in town both currently and the long term, there is potential for the (distant) future - Vaizey, Osborne, Herbert etc.
I mean, David Miliband?! A chocolate-wristed wonk who's hardly on top of his brief at the moment. Ruth Kelly?! Yes please. That'd ensure a Tory government indefinitely.
Maybe they should look to Hazel Blears...
Seriously though, I think Hilary Benn is the only one with the intellectual capabilities to be a party leader.
Posted by: Edison Smith | October 09, 2007 at 14:22
What joy! Labour split.
Nothing will guarantee a Tory victory even more than that.
Whether this manifests itself in public remains to be seen. However, despite media talk that the election will be forgotten by the public - it will not be forgotten by NuLab's luvvies and headbangers.
You can just imagine "The Old man's lost it..." talk in Westminister.
Surely Cameron has to play on this, it's too irresistable to ignore. Why go for some witty ad-hominem put downs when you remove the ground underneath his feet?
Posted by: Mike Thomas (215cu) | October 09, 2007 at 14:28
I think this is bizarre. It shows that these young scribblers miscalculated the bounce in the opinion polls. Have their eye only on the main chance and not on anything serious. Remember they are supposed to be Cabinet minister for crying out loud. They have got their fingers burnt and I am actually manifestly shocked that Brown hasn't wreaked his vengeance on them. Now they are showing their rampant ego's by going into hyperdrive to prove that they are least to blame. It is absolutely pathetic. These are not spotty teenagers, they are grown men with extremely serious jobs.
We need to show these people up for the lightweight, careerist, shabby little imbeciles that they are!
Posted by: James Burdett | October 09, 2007 at 14:33
This does have the ring of truth to it.When looking at people like Ed Balls on TV it does seem that he really hates us. This I think is his greatest weakness.IDS made him look an utter fool on the Daily Politics.
But it is also true that the parliamentary Labour party has been far more disciplined than some of our own MPs recently. I had expected some mutterings from deposed Blairites like Reid, Hewitt, Beckett or Falconer but we haven't heard a peep.A lesson for us perhaps?
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | October 09, 2007 at 14:46
So far the Labour government have had a free ride on a number of topics .
One particular topic that they have not been challenged about is the inbuilt unfairness of the voting and constituency system .
Thus constituencies in England are larger than those on Scotland and Wales - why?
England collectively did not vote Labour and Labour collectively gained only just over 21% of the eligible British vote yet they have a large majority - why?
Why the paralysed silence amongst the Tory's on this score ?
It is only if the inbuilt bias in the British system is corrected that the Conservatives will win a majority . Relying on some boundary redistributions will not do it .
Brown has provided the Conservatives with that valuable commodity Time in which to regroup and go on the offensive .
It is terribly important that this advantage is not fluffed and thrown away .
To capitalise on the tarnishing of Brown's brand there has to be some real rethinking in Tory HQ . And that means going for the big wins which are all in ENGLAND and nowhere else .
Thus , as well as the inbuilt disadvantage on the poltical map
1. dwell heavily on England's disadvantge in this partly devolved Union .
2 the democratic illegitimacy of MP's for non English constiuencies having any say in English affairs
3 what should be done about this ( in the light of the fact of a Scottish parliament )
4 you might even really steel yourselves and mention the sheer obscenity of the Barnett Rules
Brown has provided the Conservative party with space , time and momentum .
With this in mind ,settling for an attempt to reduce the Labour majority at the next electio as many appear to be advocating is simply pathetic .
We have to go for the Labour jugular . They are already a stale , tired and old government .
The Conservatives now have to crowd them ,
oppose them on a number of key grounds and above all make them look ILLEGITIMATE .
Only by doing the above and not ducking away from it can this be done .
Posted by: Jake | October 09, 2007 at 15:01
Heads up chaps, Labour about to steal our IHT proposals on BBC Parliament.
Posted by: Peter Hatcher | October 09, 2007 at 15:20
There seems to be no sense of purpose within the Labour Cabinet. What are they for? What on earth can the party hope to achieve when they've already tried every thing they could think of? Politics is supposed to be about more than just who is in charge. It's about what that person can do to make the world a better place. We're going to hear nothing worthwhile from Labour over the next few years - just a few tweaks around the edges.
Posted by: Happy Tory | October 09, 2007 at 15:33
These people only exist because of Brown. If he goes, they will go down with him. Alexander and sister Wendy both have delusions of grandeur. They are part of a pious elite that wants to impose their religion of socialism on the rest of us.
The will tax and spend England into penury while their children enjoy tuition free university education.
Balls and the Milibands are camp followers and bag men.Kelly, Harman, Smith, Blears etc represent the triumph of positive discrimination or put another way excessive transaction costs.
Posted by: Jomo | October 09, 2007 at 15:40
Splits, arguments, cross dressing, victory, going for the jugular, defeat. Our political system is adversarial and dysfunctional. Bring on some form of proportional representation, so that a wide diversity of people are fairly and accurately represented. Then our elected representatives can concentrate on policy and negotiated agreements with their peers. I suppose MPs are used to this system, but I have to say that from a lay person's viewpoint, the house of commons during the budget statement sounds like an undisciplined 6th from classroom between lessons. It's hardly surprising there is a low election turnout.
Posted by: Steve N | October 09, 2007 at 16:09
Yes, Balls does hate us. He has the look of a real thug - the weight, the bulk, the eyes steely to the point of madness. He's be excellent casting for one of Lenin's henchmen or a satrap from the Gestapo. He is also very cunning, so watch out for him. At the moment, he is planning to exploit the weakness and disunity of tory education policy. We the tory voters cannot go along with his levelling vandalism and we won't. The hugely damaging grammar schools row has shown that most right wingers remain - rightly - convinced that selection works. Let not the leadership spurn our support again. Mr Cameron must preempt the taunts of Balls and his fellow rotweilers by renewing official Tory support for a grammar and secondary modern system. Or at the least, he must kick the issue into touch by means of our old friend, localism. Let each council decide the issue amidst the cleansing blasts of vigorous debate.
Posted by: Simon Denis | October 09, 2007 at 16:29
Yes, the Inheritance Tax has figured in the CSR. Like most stolen policies, it has been badly misunderstood and even more badly implemented (£600,000 now, £700,000 in 2010). This is a complete stepback from previous policy of not increasing in line with inflation to maximise revenue for redistribution, so no integrity there. The "millionaire" IHT tag played very well, £600,000 is not going to cut it, it will emphasise the shoddiness of the moral retreat and the intellectual laziness in "getting something in to please the fools".
I think it is time a lovely dossier of nicked policies and the their misgrafting into an inconsistent intellectual environment is really hammered through, starting with ACT , yes which Tories started but knew where to stop, because it was consistent with the rest of their policies, not an inconsistent import of a quick fix which had no links to the world around it.
Posted by: Snegchui | October 09, 2007 at 16:44
"We're going to hear nothing worthwhile from Labour over the next few years" - [Happy Tory; October 09, 2007 at 15:33]
Can't suffer them another day, never mind the next few years! Now, there must be some way to bring on an early election.....let's think about this one!
Posted by: Teck | October 09, 2007 at 16:55
Now, there must be some way to bring on an early election.....let's think about this one!
Defections or military coup seem the most obvious ones, otherwise the opposition could appeal to the monarch as the Queen can dissolve parliament whenever she feels like it, although she would risk the House of Commons voting to remove her and put in someone else.
The idea of an election at this time was ridiculous - 2.5 years into a parliament with a government majority of 65, government & politics are about what is done between elections as well, start holding General Elections only 2 or 3 years after the previous one and they will seriously impact on legislative business in parliament. People expect a government elected with a sound majority to go on towards 4 years - usually 3 years 10 months to 4.5 years is considered an acceptable length.
At least a General Election on the day of the 2008 Local Elections would have minimised having to drag voters out where they would not have voted anyway, and improved turnout in the Local Elections.
I still think a Super Thursday on 11 June 2009 is the most likely day, I think Labour will get between a majority of 60 and 120 and the Labour and Conservative percentage votes as well as in real terms go up and numbers of seats for both, Labour though is not going to be able to get any more default victories. Probably a new Conservative government under Priti Patel or someone of that generation who will take Britain out of the EU and restore Capital Punishment - I think sometime between 2018 and 2024. David Cameron continuing as Conservative leader until the 2013/14 General Election and Ed Balls succeeding Gordon Brown in 2017 after 10 years.
I rather suspect that Vincent Cable will succeed Menzies Campbell. Nick Clegg, David Laws and Julia Goldsworthy are all possible future Liberal Democrat leaders.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | October 10, 2007 at 19:38
England collectively did not vote Labour and Labour collectively gained only just over 21% of the eligible British vote yet they have a large majority - why?
I don't think any political party has had even half the votes in separately England, Scotland, Wales or Ulster since 1970. The fact is that in England in 2005 no one party did that fantastically - the Conservative vote in England was higher than Labour's, but not much higher. It was a lot higher in parts of Southern England, but in England as a whole the Conservatives were scraping 34% compared to around 31% for Labour.
Labour holds a majority of English, Welsh and Scottish seats. The Conservatives have been piling up majorities in safe seats in England mostly, Labour's vote has dropped in it's safe seats, but they have held up well in marginals.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | October 10, 2007 at 19:44
Mr Blair and the then general secretary of the Labour Party were the only ones apart from Lord Levy who knew about the secret loans, and Lord Levy is at the apex of all of it. I am surprised that the arrest has come so soon, but the story that The Times ran on Saturday - saying that an unnamed Labour Party person told Sir Gulam Noon to withdraw the references to his Labour loan from the paperwork going to the House of Lords' commission on the appointment of peers - may have meant that the police had to act.
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Stellathomas
WideCircles
Posted by: Stellathomas | August 11, 2008 at 10:25