Labour lead cut to 4%

A YouGov survey for tonight's Channel 4 News has Labour's lead down to 4%.

Labour are on 40% (down 3%) and the Conservatives are on 36% (up 4%).  The LibDems are on 13% (down 2%).

My guess is that excluding the Conference bounce Labour's underlying lead is approximately 6% to 8%.  Last week's 11% lead reflected too much of the exposure Labour had enjoyed.  Tonight's 4% lead reflects a very good four days of publicity for us Conservatives.

BUT and it's a big but.  The 'Mo' might now be with the Conservatives.  Over the next two days the press might start asking some tough questions of Labour and Mr Broon, in particular.  His spinning of 'the troops home by Christmas' announcement somehow defined this man's obsession with politicking over governing.  If the media decide that the new narrative is 'Comeback Cameron' that can only be good news, too.

PS Earlier I linked from the homepage to an Iain Dale story suggesting that the Conservatives might have pulled ahead in an ICM/ Guardian poll.  UK Polling Report is saying that that leak was based on very early data and Labour are now in the lead on that one.

Comments

[Colin Smith]

Game on !

Let's see how much bottle you've got now Gordie

[Afleitch]

Good post conference poll. Of course as these things go we will have to wait for a week for 'late switchers' etc and the polls to settle. The polls are good in the fact tha the Lib Dems are grossly misunderestimated and I'd expect if they gain points in any GE (as they always do) they will be from Labour.

[Umbrella man]

I credit party unity, the tax cut pledge and Cameron's good speech. Each factor was equally important with my neighbours.

[Michael Davidson]

Not good enough. Remember, this is our bounce - straight after our conference when we've been in the limelight and Cameron's made an important speech. Our bounce will die down just like Brown's has, so I'd estimate the realistic lead Labour has is about 6 or 7 points.

[CAWP]

Not good. With the tumble and added exposure of a general election campaign - and a lot of good luck - we might get a hung parliament, or a minority administration (as in Canada).

The 14% jump that Dale, rather irresponsibly (if understandably), leaked, is the kind of thing that would suggest an election would be genuinely competitive, even winnable.

Alas, it is a fiction.

Brown will call one; Brown will win.

[Iain]

"Not good enough."

Well when there has been the summer recess where Brown has been centre stage, its interesting that when Brown and Cameron go head to head, Brown's lead begins to evaporate. In an election Brown won't have the undivided attention of the media as he has over the last few months, and there will be a lot of head to head.

[Dave Bartlett]

If you look at the full results, Labour's lead depends on the 18-34 age group. The ones least likely to vote.

[James Burdett]

Our bounce will only die down if we disappear from view. It appears that the media is beginning to be less disposed to Gordon Brown, that is a monumental opportunity for the Conservatives. We need to be getting our narrative into the Press regular as clockwork. You can not convince and convert people by a conspiracy of silence. It is now clear, whenever the Conservatives are in the public eye and our message gets across we get momentum in the Opinion polls. We need to be utterly ruthless in making sure our party and our message are never out of the public eye for too long. We have an argument to make, we need to make it.

[Steve Green]

It's a good poll result. Remember this is the poll that gave Labour its largest lead last week. The other polls when they come out will be much closer. It was a fantastic conference, we had excellent speeches and the unity was magnificent. All you doom and gloomers who have been very vocal about Cameron should now be quiet.

Your voices are growing very faint anyway.

[The Huntsman]

All to play for.

If Brown now does an about turn, he may think people will forget soon enough, but I am not so sure. People do not like being mucked about when it comes to politicians using them as something of a public convenience and it does help fashion perception of character and this exercise is all about Brown's personal character (I do not hold with the notion that politics is all about policies and that we should not play the man). There is much to be utilised here in an attack on this man's character and we should not be shy about using it.

Instinct says: too may unknowns and too many variables swirling around: he'll bottle it.

.....cue announcement.... and lots of egg on face....

[Traditional Tory]

UK Polling Report is saying that that leak was based on very early data and Labour are now in the lead on that one.

Well that will have spoiled the suppers of one or two excitable people.

[Steve Green]

It's a good poll result. Remember this is the poll that gave Labour its largest lead last week. The other polls when they come out will be much closer. It was a fantastic conference, we had excellent speeches and the unity was magnificent. All you doom and gloomers who have been very vocal about Cameron should now be quiet.

Your voices age growing very faint anyway.

[John Leonard]

CAWP:

Nice Spin.....

I don't argue that Brown will win. But by how much? Anything less than a majority of around 60 and Brown loses some credibility.

If the majority is reduced to between 20-40 then Brown will look a fool. Anything worse and I suspect Labour's divisions will appear in a major way.

The fact is for a number of years the Labour polling figure has been overstated and the Libdems understated (and recently the Conservative position as well)in comparison with the election results.

Brown has a lot of thinking to do. He probably won't be the shortest serving Prime Minister but he might become the longest serving 'Lame Duck' prime minister in history.

[Dave Bartlett]

The 11% 'Don't Knows' would, as I understand it, be most likely to decide to vote against the current government.

[support the strivers]

...and, of course, it all depends on where this 4% lead is located. If Labour are just piling up votes in their existing seats and neglecting their marginals, we could be in for some surprising and very welcome results.

Does anyone think we should have fixed term parliaments? I'm coming round to it. Timing gives the incumbents too big an advantage....difficult to see how it wld ever be changed though.

[Simon R]

This is our conference bounce, but it may be longer lasting due to there being no Labour one following it.

I don't think it's enough to dissuade Gordon Brown from calling an early election, and personally I hope he calls it. People could really warm to David Cameron on the campaign trail, and the Tories have a good chance at eating significantly into Gordon Brown's majority, leaving his Government to limp for a few more years on before winning next time round.

[Dave Bartlett]

" A 4 point lead isn’t enough for Brown to be certain that he will maintain his majority, in fact, with a lead this small at the beginning of the campaign it is possible he wouldn’t win an overall majority at all." UK Polling Report

[M Dowding]

For heaven's sake, the local by-elections last week showed an electoral 6.2% swing to The Conservatives. That was before the marvellous own goals by, I quote Andrew Neil, "Our Great Leader".
If their is, even in the Kellner YouGov, ask only Labour supporters, world of pollster self important spin, there is an argument that the 11 point Labour lead is only amongst Labour voters. Now there's a story.
Furthermore whose idea was it to hold the Diana inquest this week. I suspect it was our Great Leader!!

[Deputy Editor]

C4 website mentions that Conservatives are quite a lot more keen on an early election now:

The poll also found that enthusiasm for an early election has grown amongst the general public. 36 per cent now favour an election this autumn, up from 26 per cent a week ago.

The Conservatives have apparently responded to David Cameron's call to 'bring it on.' Last week support for an autumn poll was almost even between the parties, around 30 per cent.

But Conservative voters have now taken to the idea in droves, and 48 per cent of them favour a contest this month or next. 35 per cent of Labour voters are in favour of an autumn poll, as do 37 per cent of Lib Dems.

[Adam in London]

Pretty perfect - a bounce to keep the momentum with us, but Labour still have a lead so Brown might yet be lulled into calling an election.

[Northernhousewife]

The Guardian home page LAB LEAD CUT TO 1%

[Dave Bartlett]

"YouGov's Peter Kellner said the change in the polls over the last two weeks was the largest fluctuation in opinion since the mid-1980s.

"It could be a Labour landslide or Labour could lose their majority. The oscillation towards Labour and back again is the largest we've seen for more than 20 years, similar to bounces following the Brighton bombing in 1984 and Kinnock's conference speech against Labour militants in 1985."" Telegraph

[Paul Seery Esq]

...If Labour are just piling up votes in their existing seats and neglecting their marginals, we could be in for some surprising and very welcome results.

I hope that it will include the gaining of Tooting for the first time. The reason being that Mark Clarke and the campaign team including myself ((Approx 50,000 deliveries already))) are doing an amazing job and are really fighting the good political fight against Saddiq Khan in the seat and are really putting pressure on him.

Three words Gordon Brown: BRING IT ON!!!!!

On a minor note if the Lib Dem figure is accurat (13%) then it looks promising for the Conservative MPs and PPCs that are campaigning against the Liberal Democrats.

[Oberon Houston]

Guardian has Labour and the Tories both on 38%. It's remarkable what has hapened. However I'm delighted, Brown has much less scope after 10 years in power to increase his lead. The Conservatives have much more scope.

[Matt Wright]

Some of the swing voters and some of our traditional voters, had some doubts and wanted to know more about the parties direction. The evidence is that when the party puts across a clear practical message on the main issues like crime, NHS, family and Economy, then those undecideds come to us. With more of this during an election our vote would crystallise nicely against a Brown Labour party,

Matt

[Steve N]

I have never voted Conservative before. A few weeks ago I thought the party was in disarray. Cameron was being compared to Blair, and half you lot wanted to get rid of him. The choice for me then was to vote for a minority party such as the greens (I live in a strong labour seat).

Having heard Cameron's unscripted speech, I am convinced he is a true leader. Now I will actually put a lot of effort into supporting him, AND my local Conservative MP (already exchanged several emails). Other speeches too were good, particularly George Osborne's.

I think you are underestimating what happened at your conference. You proved yourself to be a united party with a refreshingly honest leader. I think you will get a huge victory at the next election. I sensed this seismic shift half way through Cameron's speech. At 4:24PM that day I emailed my labour MP from the last government saying "I will be interested to watch the opinion polls change over the next few days (I hope the population of Britain are not completely brain dead). I will be partying in the street if labour lose the next general election!"

Blair-haters have been DESPERATE for a credible alternative to mini-blair. That big swing to conservative is not going to bounce back, it is a no-brainer one way ticket for people like me, and I am sure there are many others like me.

I look forward to the day when this country is liberated from the current dictatorship, and even if it's a year or two, at least the final years I can enjoy, watching Brown pay the price for wasting his many years as chancellor by acting as a puppy dog to Blair.

Mind you he is not such a bad chap at heart, sounds like he has had a tough childhood. Once David slays Gordlieth, perhaps he can offer him a minor role in a Conservative government as a gesture of goodwill.

[Andy Ellis]

Do not underestimate the bounce back over the last week. Most of the labour vote has not been fully supportive, it has been grudging. People were voting for labour and supporting labour because, like me, we did not believe there was any credible and trustworthy alternative. I think we have all watched the changes in the conservative party under Mr Cameron with interest but many of us have felt that he was too plastic and too much like tony blair. But here is the difference now - his speech has won me over. For the first time, I feel i have seen inside of him and believe he has the vision that labour have lost. Hence the conservatives offer a credible alternative. An alternative we have all been thirsting for for a very long time.