Labour credit inheritance tax announcement for 'Tory surge'

The Conservative announcement on inheritance tax is credited for the Tory surge according Labour sources quoted in The Guardian.

An ICM poll for that newspaper puts the Conservatives on 38% - just 1% behind Labour level with Labour.  The LibDems are on 16%.

Earlier this evening we noted a Populus poll showing the Conservatives facing a 3% deficit and YouGov a 4% deficit.

The polls are very bad for Ming.  First his vote was squeezed by Cameron, then by Brown and now by Cameron again.  If there isn't an autumn election he will probably resign/ be challenged.

10.15pm graphics:

Comments

[orlando]

anything but credit Cameron eh Gordon ?

[Will]

ICM poll puts us level. Guardian has changed its figures.

[Andrew James]

38-all?

[Editor]

So they have. Thanks guys.

[David]

Isn't this basically saying "The Tories have only had a poll surge as they have popular policies"? This is supposed to be some sort of damning, mitigating criticism? Smells of panic to me........

[John Leonard]

What? the Labour Party now blaming us for having policies? Funnily enough thats what political parties are supposed to do and thats why people elect Governments isn't it? No wonder they have been wrecking this country for ten years! If they had some of their own we might not have been in the mess that we are currently!

Now Gordon and his muppets seem to think that we vote in order to listen to their dulcet tones. I don't think so! The only people who might vote for that reason are insomniacs. If there is one thing better than a sedative to put you to sleep it is a Labour politician!

What pathetic whining from Downing Street! Get a backbone take a hit and get on with the job!

[Peter Hatchet]

Cameron/Osbourne *must* not relax, slack or gloat now. They *must* work night and day to determine an effective defence to the inevitable Labour attacks of "sums dont add up".

Labour will hit us VERY HARD on it.

We must find a way of blunting this line of attack once and for all.

[Oberon Houston]

Spin. This is just Brown spin to deflect the impact, and the media are suckers for it.

[Man in a Shed]

The Labour sources are far to generous! Gordon deserves a lot of the credit for his grubby electioneering in Baghdad signing tanks etc.

This is far more damaging to Labour, as the charge of spin sticks. ( That's without today's hospital fiasco ).

Ordinary people saw that as naked opportunism and also bad manners added with callous playing with the hopes of British troops to come home and dashing them with his usual reannoucement ploy and devious small print.

[Anthoninus]

So Labour are claiming that the Tories are doing well in the polls because they promised tax cuts! Big big strategic mistake in my view as now Gordon's stealth taxes can be brought more to the fore - how about promising to cut more of them? We might even get an opinion poll lead sooner than expected!

[Clucking Fist]

Doh!

[601]

So the Nulab admit the Tories have a popular policy?!

Editor what about your poll of polls?

[James Burdett]

Peter Hatchet - I made a similar point elsewhere earlier. I don't think it is a defensive strategy we need though, I think we need to be out there on the media selling our positive agenda. We will then be moving the agenda on continually so blunting the effect of the attaks. If we are popping up every other day then the Labour will be chasing us as we set the agenda. We must take the fight to Labour and be proactive because too often we have been reactive and sat back waiting to dispel Labour's attack. Why do we afford them the courtesy of an opportunity to attack? Set the agenda, day in day out. Let Labour chase us for a change.

[Jacob]

What is going on with Labour? Their machine used to be so slick.

'We think this party has a lead because they are providing popular policies'!

Blair & Ali Campbell must be laughing their socks off at these muppets!

[Paul S]

Brown will come to regret this early election.... 3-4 weeks of constant media coverage of both leaders will show his failings - poor presentation skills, nail biting, awkwardness speaking to large groups off the cuff..... I think we may just do quite well in this election. ps - why is it Labour home doesnt mention new polls and they never publish any anti-Brown comments? (at least we are democratic and let the odd Labour supporter on to vent their spleen)

[Editor]

Hi 601: I've now added the poll of polls and graphics.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Absolutely James/Peter. We've had a good week undoubtedly and have been able to dominate the media but we are still behind.
We are going to need a lot more good weeks when we'll have no party conference to force the eyes of the media onto us before anyone can relax at all.
Most of the Shadow Cabinet did well at Conference now let's see them go out there and sell our policies hard. We cannot afford another period of hibernation that we had from many of them throughout the summer.

[sjm]

DC has shown this week that he has real leadership quality and has earned respect, which I hope his colleagues and some of the 'old boys' will now demonstrate.

Anyone, and I mean anyone, who breaks rank in public should be chucked out; and that also means remembering that ConsHome is not a private debating club.

[Edison Smith]

This isn't quite Labour imploding, but admiting you're on the wrong side of public opinion (crediting the Tories resurgence to their policies indeed!) shows that they are currently all at sea.

What a turnaround!

This time last week, Brown had all the cards.

Now, they have none.

Call an election and win with a smaller majority.

Don't call an election and be labelled chicken, and playing party politics whilst being PM.

Cameron excellent on BBC 10 O'Clock News. Keep it up DC!

[601]

Thank-you Editor.

[Martin Cox]

'...sums don't add up'.
There are plenty of expensive labour gimmmmicks to be cut to fund our plans, as well as ID cards.
Quangos: Brown added eight more to his over 200 in his first week. Total member exceed H. of C.
Fatuous press advertising: telling people how to eat, live, spy on their neighbours.
Sack surplus public employees: gender managers and scores of other non-jobs.
Cancel all Guardian ads., use facebook etc. (free).
Expenses: make all public employees, including MPs and ministers produce receipts for checking.
Cancel most foreign travel with its hotels and feasts, and institiute internet conferences.
And hundreds more.
Martin Cox

[Paul Oakley]

Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. Ahem.

[Matt Wright]

The party should now persist with a relentless, positive drive forward setting the agenda and keeping a coherent focus on the key isues. While doing so we should frankly remind voters of the same old Brown-Blair spin, gimmicks and failed delivery.

[Traditional Tory]

Anyone, and I mean anyone, who breaks rank in public should be chucked out

Would the 's' stand for 'Stalin' sjm?

The Conservative Party is a broad church and dissent is permitted.

[RedSam]

Amazing. Before conference season, you were all moaning at DC for flatlining at 35% and going on about how you should be ahead at this stage in the Parliament etc etc.

To the credit of people such as the Editor and Iain Dale, they have told us to wait until after the Conference Season for polls that are more reflective, and lo and behold, we are, broadly speaking, back to where we were before the Conference Season.

I don't believe that Labour ever had an 11% lead, anymore than I believe that the Tories are level with Labour now.

So why is DC so popular with you lot now, having made, it seems, no headway at all over the Conference season?

[Teck Khong]

We have had a very good week indeed, but I have not seen substantial evidence that "we have been able to dominate the media" - [Malcolm Dunn; Oct 04, 2007 at 22:21]

In the main, there is still alot of Tory-phobic tendencies, but I was heartened that we stood united at Blackpool. David Cameron has emerged, in my opinion, an undeniably convincing leader. There are also reliable indications that a Conservative government led by him will have a cabinet approach, as opposed to the presidential style initiated by Tony Blair and perpetuated by Gordon Brown.

This critical difference in parliamentary democracy will be appreciated by more and more of the public, who will also warm towards his interpretation of accessibility to a leader. At least, I hope that is and remains the case!

As the squeeze on Gordon Brown and the Labour government is applied with increasing vigour, we require to step up the revelation of their failures and blunders, with synchronous and progressive firming up of our policies.....mindful of course that Labour are magpies too!

[Edison Smith]

Tories Tories everywhere!

At one point - almost simultaneously - on TV tonight we had Osborne on Question Time (BBC 1) Lansley on Newsnight (BBC 2), and Liam Fox on ITV.

Nick Herbert was on ITV also, and was excellent. Warmingly eccentric, energetic, and clear.

Good stuff.

[Yet Another Anon]

Opinion Polls usually exaggerate trends in political support with many avoiding saying things they may feel embarrassed saying openly, equally what does an opinion poll mean anyway at the moment - there won't be a General Election tomorrow and when the General Election comes the circumstances in which it is called will affect the result.

If there is a General Election this Autumn most will feel it is too soon because of Labour having a secure majority and Gordon Brown having already said he does not need a mandate, and many will refuse to turn out to vote Labour ro will turn out to vote Conservative or Liberal Democrat instead of Labour and Labour will be close to losing it's majority. The fact that forms about even with the rolling register that many voters (especially Labour voters) will have moved since the last General Election or become eligible to vote when they weren't will also impact on Labour.

Then there is the timing of legislation with bills not passed having to go back to where they started - after all government is not just about winning elections, the main bits in fact are the bits inbetween.

Gordon Brown made a tactical error in not saying that there was no reason he could see for there to be a General Election this Autumn, by saying that if there was he would have to talk to the Queen first he implied that it was a possibility. The longer after saying this he failed to say there wasn't going to be after this, the more people assumed that there would be one, but by the time of the next General Election (11 June 2009 almost certainly) this will have diminished as an issue, he won't be cutting and running and probably Labour and Conservative support will go up leaving Labour with an increased majority and the Conservatives with more seats, and the Liberal Democrats pretty much back where the Liberal Party was in 1979.

[TimC]

This change in the polls does make sense. Many people were worried about some of the recent announcements from the policy reviews. Conference clarified that we wouldn't be adopting some of the more unpopular policies (e.g. VAT on flights) and included announcements that would be attractive to large numbers of home owners (inheritance tax) and parents/first time buyers (stamp duty). Also, the party appeared unified for the first time in months.

[Letters From A Tory]

I still think the polls need a few weeks to settle, but as we have all seen over the past month or so a week (and increasingly, a single day) is a long time in politics.

http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com

[Editor]

It's impossible to know what has cauied the surge. Lots of things, I imagine. The unity on display last week. The promise of a welfare crackdown. The substantial publicity that David Cameron's speech won. Brown's Iraq mess-up. My hunch, however, is that the tax pledge on inheritance was decisive. It's only anecdotal but that's what my non-political friends are highlighting to me.

[Man in a Shed]

There is method in Labour's blaming of inheritance tax. They avoid publishing our other policies, and associate the poll rise with just one issue.

This leaves them the option of doing something about it themselves and saying there - now there's no need to vote Tory.

The party needs to fight harder about claiming the credit for the polices and new ideas that have really won this turn around.

[Comstock]

Mornin'

You'll not be amazed to hear I support inheritance tax, and it's depressing to note this surge. However I do wonder if it has made 'Dave' look like a tax cutter, even amougst people who wouldn't actually benefit from this tax cut.

With headlines like 'election pressure mounts for PM' it's gonna be hard for Gordy not to call an election soon http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7028677.stm

Not a very flattering image of Brown, either. Are we going to have a flustered image of Cameron in the interests of balance?

[Yet Another Anon]

My hunch, however, is that the tax pledge on inheritance was decisive.
I wouldn't ne at all surprised if Alistair Darling in the Comprehensive Spending Review and Pre Budget Report came out with some kind of proposal to exempt the Family Home from Inheritance Tax below a certain value - £300,000 perhaps.

The thing is that with rising house values a million pound allowance may not be nearly as much as it sounds, people may realise this before long - the Conservative policy on this was launched as being that only millionaires will pay IHT, but this is still including the value of the house in the million pounds and many people would not consider someone with less than a million pounds excluding their home to be a millionaire.

[Mike Thomas (215cu)]

Delicious!

I watched BBC 10 O' Clock News as the presenters had to explain the sudden poll narrowing. Body language is a terrible betrayer of thoughts and they looked sick as dogs.

Add to that then then had to explain the ONS stats on families as further vindication of Tory policy the BBC have enjoyed rubbishing (especially the 4 v 1 Newsnight on Cameron).

On families, Labour have hit the brickwall of that cul-de-sac and lie in crumpled heap on the floor. Clear Tory blue water everywhere.

Made my year so far.

IDS' excellent work is the stuff that Gordon would never touch, it would great to win over Frank Field too to devastate the Labour ranks and give Gordon some of his own bitter medicine.

But...

We really have to fight on, utterly united, keep getting in the face of Gordon and getting our mugs on the TV too. Keep the same messages on the media, over and over again. It'll stiffen our support and make it much harder for Labour to pinch these clearly very popular policies.

[Jake]

M. Campbell on Question time last night actually spoke quite well . He made a big point about how fair 4 yearly parliaments would be and how unethical it is that Brown is playing his power to call an election for narrow party political advantage .

I suspect that the loud applause he received for this was genuine and not simply that of a BBC manipulated audience .

This is a popular topic which resonates with the population right across the political spectrum and it is topical RIGHT NOW .

Why aren't the Conservatives banging on about 4 year parliaments and harping on about Brown's cynical exploitation of the present system ?

If this were 1994 and Blair had been dealt this opportunity he wouldn't have hesitated .

[Malcolm Dunn]

We must be careful about basing our appeal too much on our recent tax announcements.FWIW (which is probably not much) I believe one of the things that has really helped us this week is Brown's despicable behaviour in Iraq. Most of his 'bounce' had much less to do with any policy announcement but the fact that he was able to persuade the media that post Blair the age of spin and soundbites was over. The Iraq photo opportunity showed us all that this is not so. I wonder if he will continue to treat the British electorate 'as fools'?

[Yet Another Anon]

Why aren't the Conservatives banging on about 4 year parliaments and harping on about Brown's cynical exploitation of the present system ?
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats can say that Gordon Brown should either announce he is to seek a dissolution or rule it out this side of New Year, and do this quickly. A revision of methods of calling elections early is needed, perhaps with MPs needing to vote on whether there should be a dissolution and perhaps emergency provisions for the Privy Council to vote on a dissolution rather than it simply being a decision of the monarch which in the 20th century became effectively a Prime Ministerial decision by proxy.

However both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats said there should be a General Election called this year, so although they can say Labour would be doing it for the wrong reasons if it went ahead, they are committed to the position that an election is right albeit for other reasons.

[Goldie]

Brown still needs to go the polls. He stands a very good stand of winning despite thie blue bounce.

If he doesn't go to polls now, though, his changes bleaken considerably.

He will roll the dice. Let the Battle begin.

I confess that the "rebalancing" has done the trick for me, with some lingering doubts. But at least this party in Blackpool somewhat resembled the Conservative Party I used to love.