It's the News of the World wot stopped it?

More details of the ICM/ News of the World poll:

• 77% disapprove of Labour's record on immigration.
• 63% of its law and order performance.
• 62% disapprove of Labour  on tax.
• More than half (52%) give Labour the thumbs down on the NHS.

The NotW leader offers advice to David Cameron:

"The Tories' alluring promise of stamp duty and inheritance tax cuts has resonated with a public tired of overbearing taxation and weary of not being able to get on the housing ladder. We have long believed that a party of smaller government, less bureaucracy and lower taxes is a winning party."

Earlier this evening, on Channel 4 News, George Osborne insisted that the tax announcements were only a part of the reason for the Tory fightback.  He also credited David Cameron's speech - which the NotW notes "had a considerable impact" - and the overall message of the party on the NHS and education.  What is clear and welcome, however, is that lower taxation is back at the heart of the Conservative pitch.

BROWN CANNIBALISED HIS OWN PRINCIPAL ADVANTAGES:

Comments

[John Craig]

Great isn't it - but we must not get complacent.

For sport I went on to Labour Home - it reminds me of ConservativeHome over the last few months.

[James Burdett]

John - I agree no complacency. I also had a mischievous looksy at LabourHome and a lot of them are in a serious state of denial about all this.

[Gavin Newton]

Does this mean that Gordon is losing the Murdoch press ? If so it's going to take him longer than next May to recover.

[Michael Hewlett]

This whole episode proves beyond doubt that we are most effective when we are united.

We had a common foe last week at conference and Brown knew the electorate would respond to this.

Let's hope this unity can last through to the future election (whenever that may be)

[Jonathan Sheppard]

I suspect it is more to do with the private polling that has been done in the marginals which will have been delivering Labour the same sort of results and will have forced this back down by The PM and his team of advisers. Result is credibilty has been seriously damaged.

[Chad Noble]

Surely it was the combo of the Tory high of the tax cut pledges with the Labour low of Brown's ill-judged Iraq jaunt.

Brown's visit to Iraq was really clumsy, and even if people aren't ready to love the Tories just yet, they certainly don't like such obvious cynical politics, particularly when it involves highly regarded troops.

Lower taxes being popular. Who'da thunk it? ;-) More of the same please.

[Adam Johns]

Cameron missed a chance to make his own News of the World headline by re-iterating Boris Johnson's "Big girl's blouse" statement. In the interview on his drive this afternoon DC said "Well Boris has his own way of putting it, but..". It could have crowned our day of triumph and underscored Labour's disaster and made for an iconic memorable day for years to come.

But anyway, remember how good it was when we were last ahead in the polls?

[Oscar Miller]

"Brown is seen as a calculation politician" - shouldn't that be miscalculation politician?

[Goldie]

Stupid decision by Brown. He should have gone to the country. He may very well have won, maybe even comfortably.

Now he is a diminished figure. He has handled this really spectacularly stupidly.

If he hadn't already decided to go to the country, he should NEVER have let up this balloon.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Can someone clarify whether he has also said an election will not happen in 2008 "except in extraordinary circumstances".... Was that said?

[Felicity Mountjoy]

Honesty to dishonesty is missing from the Before to After diagram.

He was seen as honest but now he's saying that his cowardly decision has nothing to do with the polls.

Unbelievable.

[Edison Smith]

This was going to be the day Labour muddied our tax proposals, wasn't it?

Instead, it's probably their worst day in government since being elected in 97.

It's amateur hour at No.10.

I reiterate, Blair and Alastair Campbell would never have let this go tits-up in the way it has. There would not have been ANY talk of an election, let alone a month's worth of talk-up about it. A snap election is supposed to be exactly that - one that takes everyone by surprise.

I think a few Blairites are secretly enjoying themselves.

I wonder what Blair thinks himself of all this?

It's an interesting question, especially as Blair said to admire David Cameron as he - in a roundabout way - reminds him of himself circa 1994-97.

[Matt Wright]

People are seeing through Brown more and more. We need to keep up the momentum and stick to a practical, coherent theme.

Matt

[Goldie]

In the excitement of the moment, the Editor wrote that "He's not going to the country because he knows he would lose." Let's not kid ourselves. This is not true. And it's very important to remember that.

Personally, I believe --and have defended this view here-- that going to the country was precisely what Brown should have done.

The Conservatives had a good, but not spectacular, conference. They were united and there were no blunders. There was, even more importantly, a significant move to the right -some call it "rebalancing", but we can call a spade a spade. This was very good because it shored up key supporters. But the larger damage to Brown was done to himself: in particular with respect to the troop "withdrawal" from Iraq. He looked too calculating and HE himself destroyed his credibility. The Tories didn't do it TO him.

Brown should have rolled the dice. He is turning out to be a coward. But in the midst of a post-conference bounce for the Tories, we should not believe that the good numbers we have seen would have been the same at Election Day. There is a LOT of proof to suggest otherwise.

However, now that this happened, I believe that Gordon Brown, in one fell swoop, has undone all the good, even great, work since his accession.

The Conservatives should now stay united, portrary Brown as a weak, dithering, indecisive, calculating, poll-reading hypocrite.

Remember Tony Blair's yelling "weak, weak, weak" to John Major?

That should be the tune. If the Conservatives focus and are as disciplined as New Labour was in 1996-1997, they will now win the next elections.

Let's not forget that the chickens are coming home to roost on the economy as well.

Cameron did well, but it was Brown who destroyed himself.

Let's not forget. Let's not get arrogant.

[Ted]

Tim

You get credit for breaking in story in the Observer "Matters were not helped when news of his BBC interview was leaked yesterday afternoon to the Conservative home website, allowing Cameron to appear on television before Brown is able to explain himself fully to the nation this morning."

Well done!

[Philip]

Yes, the polling putting us 6 points ahead in marginals, largely due, it is reported, to the policies on inheritance tax and stamp duty cuts, and that the Iraq troop withdrawals spin was a disaster for Labour (BBC gave the Govt a tough time on this on Today last week), have made him run off frit!

Yes, tax-cutting IS popular if voters are convinced this can be done without damaging public services – and this is what we seem to have achieved at conference, and voters see that all the taxpayers’ extra money being poured into the public services have not brought about the desired improvements.

We need to continue to associate GB with the failures of Brown/Blair Govt, and that his Govt is just a continuation of the same. Did I hear a slogan is “Same Labour, same failures, same Brown” ?

We must stay united in coming months around David Cameron’s programme – we have seen it does represent true Conservative values. Perhaps one reason for Gordon Brown delaying the election is to give us a few more months (or years) for divisions he hopes are there to become apparent.

But now David Cameron and his front bench team now look much more like a Government in waiting.

[jeff]

A triumph for trustafarian "Dave."

[Hannah T]

Good God he's such a fool. If he had held his nerve and called it he would have looked strong in the face of adversity and probably won. Now he looks a calculating, cowardly fool and he will probably lose next time. Twit.

[Goldie]

I am just worried that Portillo said that this is a “a catastrophic career-ending error” for Brown. Much as I personally like Michael, he is invariably wrong about everything.

[Matt Wright]

Cameron showed real nerve against the odds during the summer. That helped to build the conference up along with the policies. I also think that underneath the surface of the polls in the summer Labour were weak, especially in the marginals. If there had been an election this autumn we would have built up support during that election campaign (the recent polls are showing this). Yes our preperations were tight for a snap election but they were ready and having to move quickly is a great tonic and concentrator of the mind. I think we would have taken Brown to a hung parliament. This was precisely what wiser heads were saying on both sides. Brown has shown himself up by building up the hype and spin.

[Jake]

I always thought he'd chicken out .

I reiterate , England was not looking good

but Scotland - and never forget the massive importance of Scotland in all Labour thinking -
was looking seriously threatening for Labour .
the SNP are on a roll up there and would have loved a chance to take on Broon .

[englandism]

'and never forget the massive importance of Scotland in all Labour thinking'

And that is why Brown gave the exclusive to 'Red Andy' the Scottish socialist.

Anyway, here's a nice picture:

http://www.englandism.com/images/cheese-eating.jpg