Highlights from David Cameron's immigration and population speech

Further to our earlier post, key sections of David Cameron's population speech are pasted below (full text here).

During the Q&A after the speech, Mr Cameron declined to say how much he wanted net immigration reduced but promised that Conservatives would seek a "substantial" change.  He ruled out any attempts to influence the number of children that families choose to have.  He dismissed suggestions that this speech - his first on immigration and related issues - amounted to a shift from the centre ground.  These issues, he said, concerned everyone - from the right, left and centre.

Immigration must be reduced: "We need policy to reduce the level of net immigration.  And we need policy to strengthen society and combat atomisation.  The right approach, as I will argue today, has three components.  First, a sober and forensic understanding – and a total acceptance of - the facts: the scale and nature of this challenge.  Second, action to ensure that our population grows at a more sustainable rate.  Third, action to prepare properly for that sustainable rate of growth."

Population growth is accelerating: "Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest that our population of 60.6 million today will grow to nearly 63 million by 2011, 65 million by 2016, and more than 71 million by 2031.  These projected increases are on a different scale to what we have seen in the recent past.  In the last twenty years, our population grew by around four million.  Over the next twenty years, it’s projected to grow by around nine million – more than twice as fast."

Natural demography is a secondary factor in population growth: "Only around thirty per cent of the projected increase in our population by 2031 is due to higher birth rates and longer life-spans... more than two thirds - of the increase in our population each year is attributable to net migration."

Sources of immigration: "In 2005, the latest year for which detailed figures are available, 145,000 migrants to Britain were from the European Union, mostly from the new accession countries in the east, and accounting for around thirty per cent of the total.  91,000 were British citizens returning to live here.  Another 189,000 came from the Commonwealth.  And 140,000 from elsewhere in the world.  But these bald figures do not give a very clear picture of what is happening.  We must not confuse stock and flow.  What matters in terms of our overall population is not who comes, but who stays."

Immigration has largely been positive for the economy: "When it comes to the economic effects of immigration, I would summarise the position as follows.  Broadly, immigration has a positive impact on our economy.  But there are negative effects too, and any responsible population strategy must distinguish between them, avoiding a broad-brush approach in favour of policy responses that are appropriately tailored to the varying economic effects of immigration, and which seek to share the costs and benefits fairly."

Pressure on housing: "2004 figures show that net migration will create the equivalent of 73,000 new households a year in England.  According to the Government’s own figures, that’s a third of the demand for housing in England."

Pressure on transport infrastructure: "Britain has the most congested roads in Europe, and as we all know from our daily experience, simply getting around is more and more of a hassle.   There are now thirty-three million cars on Britain’s roads: six million more than in 1997.  That’s the year John Prescott promised that cutting car use would be the measure of his success in office.  The speed of a car in rush-hour London is now only half the speed of a cyclist.   And the average worker in Britain spends nearly an hour commuting, longer than in almost every other country in Western Europe.  In many parts of the country, our rail network is suffering from chronic levels of over-crowding, seriously blighting the quality of life for millions of commuters.  As our Policy Review pointed out, on current trends, transport congestion will be costing our economy £22 billion a year by 2025."

The problem of social atomisation: "A recent estimate suggested that divorce and separation accounts for twenty-four per cent of the growth in the total number of households.  Twenty-seven per cent is due to the changing age structure of the population and people living longer. Immigration accounts for twenty-six per cent – although this calculation was based on earlier, lower estimates of the level of immigration, and so will have risen... a rise in the number of people living on their own - does not just affect housing.  It affects public services – with evidence suggesting that people living on their own place greater calls on public services like the NHS.  It affects transport - through more cars on our roads, as the one household, one car structure moves to the two households, two cars structure.  And more single-person households means more resource use, for example, an individual living alone consumes forty per cent more water than they would if they were living with someone else."

Gordon Brown has nothing to say: "Today Gordon Brown cannot tell us whether he thinks the population of the country is too low, too high, or just about right.  Whether our population is growing too fast, too slowly or at about the right pace."

What Tories will do about immigration: "These are concrete steps that we will take to control immigration directly.  An annual limit on non-EU economic migration, enforced by a new Border Police Force. Transitional controls for new EU entrants.  And changes to the rules on marriages across national boundaries."

Increasing the skills of British workers: "Our domestic unemployment rate is shockingly high – with nearly five million adults of working age on out-of-work benefits, four million of whom, according to the government’s own figures, want to and could work if they had the right skills, incentives and support... So the next Conservative government will implement both a revolution in skills training, to equip people for the twenty-first century economy, and radical welfare reform, to help people move from a life on benefits to a life in work.  As I announced last week, we will be publishing detailed proposals in these crucial policy areas over the next few months."

Action to tackle atomisation: "Our pro-family welfare reforms will also help us deal more effectively with some of the specific pressures on housing, public services, transport and resources like water and energy that arise from more and more people living on their own."

Comments

[Tony Makara]

A very well put argument and backed up with lots of thought-provoking statistics. I liked the part about re-training British workers and I look forward to seeing the proposals as and when they came out. I hope David and the team will set particular focus on equipping the young with the skills needed to compete. The way Labour have let down the young unemployed with their New Deal gimmick has been a disgrace. So Conservative plans to re-train are a light in the tunnel.

[John Kelly]

I especially valued hearing some FACTS on this subject.

[silent majority]

Great sppeech from Cameron on immigration today.He's looking more and more like a Prime Minister in waiting.

Thank God the Tories are finally getting their act together to save us from the corrupt, incompetent, sleazy new Labour spivs.

[NigelC]

In the draft East of England Plan that the Government is trying to force through it is clearly stated that 41% of the household growth of 508,000 houses is projected to come from the balance of net migration into the region.

It appears from the figures provided that 82% of the forecast population growth is from in-migration; only 18% from increase of births over deaths

(The difference between the 41% and 82% is houses for "hidden households", caused by decreasing occupancy rates per house)

This cannot be sustainable.

[Al Gunn]

Unmitigatedly positive response from me: great speech.

But it is disappointing that we cannot impose limits on EU migration into the UK. This surely means that Tory policy will lock out, to a greater extent than one would want, non-EU or Commonwealth migrants... regrettable and entirely down to EU rules.

[Dale]

It was a good speech, but it is worth noting that the whole 'transitional controls' will do essentially nothing, as all of the countries that are ever going to be in the eu are already in it.

[John Leonard]

A very encouraging and well argued message from DC.

I appreciate why the EU migration cannot currently be addressed. However, that is not to say that in years to come that it will have to be. Until it is we do not have any guarantees that immigration can be fully controlled.

As it stands the immigration issue can only be improved not resolved.

[Tony Makara]

On the 'Welfare to work' theme I think we have to be realistic about expectations. With over five million jobless and only just over half a million vacancies available at any available time we have to accept that we won't be able to provide work for everyone. Thats why I think it important that employment strategy is most focused on those under thirty. The Conservative party must not fall into Labour's harebrained egalitarian scheme of trying to funnel the over 45s and the disabled into very vacancy going. The focus must be set on providing work for the young.

[RobD]

Dale - you may be correct but there is a strong lobby to bring Turkey into the EU. There may be a small likelyhood of this suceeding but while there is some possibility I would prefer a government that is prepared to put some controls in place rather than the current regime who did nothing last time.

There are 78 million people in Turkey, that is over 150% of the population of Poland.

This was a great speech by Cameron, he has managed to frame the immigration discussion in terms which do not make us look like hard right wingers.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Absolutely John Leonard, it's progress but not the finished article. I'm pleased and a little suprised that the BBC appears to be giving this speech fair coverage.

[Votedave]

Let us not allow Labour to claim this is a "lurch to the right". It is nothing of the sort. It's eminently sensible.

[SLEEPER]

Before getting too excited over Dave's immigration plans may I suggest you read what Richard North has to say on http://www.eureferendum.blogspot.com/

[Richard North]

Sorry David! You can't raise the minimum age for a spouse coming to Britain - and for the sponsor - to twenty-one … or insist that every spouse coming to Britain should have a basic level of English.

If the person wishing to have their spouse join them is an EU citizen, then Directive 2004/38/EC applies. That makes no provision for excluding spouses on the grounds of age, and you certainly are not permitted to require that they speak English.

As long as they acted in accordance with the law of the country in which they married, no such conditions can be applied.

[Sean Fear]

I expect that the number of teenage brides entering the UK who are citizens of EU countries is tiny. OTOH, the number coming in from the Indian sub-continent is considerable.

[Oscar Miller]

I'm pleased and a little suprised that the BBC appears to be giving this speech fair coverage

Fair coverage? Seems like you won't stay too surprised Malcolm judging from Nick Robinson's report on the 6 c'clock news. He seemed determined to make out this is a racist policy no matter how carefully written, factual and well considered Conservative ideas are. This is a rough summary of the report :
Talking about immigration spells trouble for the Tories - so much so that Cameron didn't dare use the 'i' word. But there may be trouble ahead when he gives us a number (if he ever does) - he can't limit numbers of EU members coming in (mostly white) - this means they'll be coming from other places - and "let's put it this way - it's unlikely that their faces will be white". And in one bound Robinson had conjured up the vision of a racist policy. Let's face it - if the BBC don't get the quotes they want - they just make up their own scenario (rather as Daniel Hannan explained over the BBCs coverage of Europe).

[HF]

Richard North, if you are right it would force a Conservative Govt to address the problem of EC Directives head on. So you should welcome this because the more conflict that a future Conservative Govt has with the EC the more likely it is that we get withdrawal. There cannot be a change of attitude by the UK Govt machine until it has many areas of conflict with the EC. Look at the dynamics involved. Conflict with the EC is good.

[Traditional Tory]

Difficult to take Cameron seriously after all the previous fluffy nonsense about the greatest menace to our nation, but at least is is likely that Brown will now move to outflank him, so perhaps something may at last be done.

It is high time the sort of idiots who call commonsense on immigration a 'lurge to the right' were exiled to the outer fringe of politics.

Farage, the leader of UKIP, recently called for a moratorium on immigration. That should be the Tory position.

[Patrick Ratnaraja]

The number of Thai and Russian brides who get married and get visas without any problems is also considerably high.

I do agree that something must be done to stop these legal immigrants.

[Traditional Tory]

Nick Robinson...seemed determined to make out this is a racist policy no matter how carefully written, factual and well considered.

This will not surprise anybody who recalls the previous career of 'Red Robbo' in the YCs and the Tory Reform Group.

[Gordon Dudgeon]

I don't know if anyone else heard it, but when I was listening to the speech at about 11.45 on Sky. When David Cameron asked the question " What are we going to do about it? "
Someone uttered the words "Extermination ?"
It did not sound as if it came from the audience, it sounded more like in a studio or in a OB control room.
I was not on the drink that early, I am sure I heard it.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

Cameron has not told us anything new about the effects of immigration that was not already well known. He will not be doing anything about immigration from the EU. He states that he it will be using transitional
controls for new entrants into the EU, but sooner or later those controls will be obviated by the time lapse. Richard North by quoting chapter and verse of EU directives appears to have demolished Cameron's arranged marriages wishful thinking exercise. All in all do not expect much change under his policy.
Cameron's approach to this problem seems to have much in common with the way he dealt with his EPP promise; prevarication over his EU Referendum promise; toothless Grand Committee approach to an English Parliament and now a smoke and mirror immigration policy. It will be interesting to know what Immigration Watch has to say.
They say that politics is the art of the possible; Cameron is turning it into the art of the unlikely.

[Edison Smith]

ITV tried to insinuate that Cameron's ideas were anti-Black.

I just shook my head and switched it over.

[Alan Bell]

Talks cheap. Easy to cut money from benefits but hard to create jobs. He says go self employed. It was on tv that banks won't lend to people with business ideas. So how are people who are on dole going to afford to go self employed? What could they do if they had the money. Probably unskilled they can't become a carpenter. They can't open a shop because the likes of tescos sell too cheap for the little man to compete. We have no industries hardly now. Cameron admitted that uk companies are more than 90% of the time likely to employ eu migrants that uk citizens. If you ask me we are doomed. I think it will be uk people who will be migrating for a better a life soon.

[Alan Bell]

Whats the point of training people if there are no jobs at the end of it. They only train people to give them something to do, not to find work. I have more training certificates than I have clothes and I still couldn't get a job at the end of all those courses. The problem is China and India. We buy everything from them now. So we have no jobs and what can change that situation. Not one idea from Cameron as yet. The only way we could do it is to go self suffient and cut off from trading with other countries. Make our own cars, grow our own food, make our own tvs etc. But uk governments like be powerful around the world so thats unlikely to happen. Lets all migrate to china and india I say.

[Air Jordan]

J'ai forte détermination à réussir.