Bounceback!

The latest ConservativeHome poll of party members shows a seismic transformation in the grassroots' view of David Cameron, George Osborne and the party's prospects at the next General Election.

The bottom line is that David Cameron currently enjoys more support from the party's rank-and-file than at any time in his leadership. 

NET SATISFACTION WITH DAVID CAMERON

When David Cameron first became leader, 82% of members were satisfied and 16% were dissatisfied.  This produced the net satisfaction rating of +66%.  His rating slowly eroded after that but began to deteriorate badly at the time of grammarsgate.  By the end of September there were slightly more members dissatisfied with him than satisfied - 49% to 48%.  For reasons explained last evening we didn't publish that number at the time.  Today the situation is transformed.  89% of members are now satisfied with the Conservative leader and only 11% dissatisfied.  I put it down to the transformation in the opinion polls, the inheritance tax cut, the rebalancing of the overall party message, that Conference speech, strong (sometimes angry) performances at PMQs and, of course, Labour's self-inflicted wounds.  Throughout the last few weeks one thing is clear: Brown bottled it but David Cameron held his nerve.

NET SATISFACTION WITH GEORGE OSBORNE

The other big winner in this month's survey is George Osborne - the author of the inheritance tax cut.  88% say that they are satisfied with the Shadow Chancellor now and only 9% dissatisfied.  I was certainly one of the 1,206 members who voted "satisfied" but I will be campaigning hard against a repeat of George Osborne's pledge to match Labour's spending but that's a discussion for another day.  For those who can't wait for strong arguments in favour of spending control, please see today's Platform piece by Andrew Haldenby.  Essential reading.

Tomorrow I'll post the ratings for all of the shadow cabinet.  The ratings of every shadow cabinet member rose (except one).

LIKELIHOOD OF DAVID CAMERON BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

This third graph captures the change in expectations of victory.  At the start of 2006 77% thought David Cameron was likely to become PM after the next General Election.  That number slipped to 29% last month but is now at a new high this month: 80%.  Today's ComRes poll giving the Tories an 8% lead will encourage the optimists but there is a long road ahead.  The election might not be until 2010.  Will Brown's standing continue to erode?  Will events come to his aid?  Will Clegg regain some of the LibDems' lost support?  There's a lot of work to do before anyone can open any champagne.

I'll put up the survey's EU Treaty findings at 10am.  If you heard them featured on this morning's Today programme please wait until then to discuss them.

Comments

[Traditional Tory]

The problem is, of course, that if sentiment can 'bounce back' so quickly, it can bounce in the opposite direction with equal ease.

And no doubt it will.

[EML]

That's the spirit, Traditional Tory, ever the optimist!

[Patsy Sergeant]

Oh, Traditional Tory, you are always so encouraging!

[Dave D]

'Grammarsgate'?

It is still *such* a stupid term, Editor.

[powellite]

Always willing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...it's a good thing TT adds to the other certainties of life. Dammit, that glass is always half-empty!

[UK Daily Pundit]

Traditional Tory, are you a funeral director by any chance?

[Old Hack]

There is absolutely no room for complacency, or worse still arrogance, about the current recovery. That attitude was in part what caused the problems for the leadership in the first place.

We have to continue focusing on providing effective and meaningful policies and opposition to the Brown Government.

Wandering off down a path of self indulgent navel gazing about some issue that obsesses the political class but leaves the electorate cold would be disastrous.

Nothing can be taken for granted. If there are further self inflicted wounds that cause another slump in the party's standings, then next time the landing may not be so soft. Especially after we have had Brown on the ropes.

[Editor]

Enough about TT, thanks.

[Jomo]

The figures illustrate the extent of Brown's foolish self-destruction.Not only did he finish himself he totally destroyed Nulab and the really good news is they can't get rid of him.

[Northernhousewife]

"Is TT Funeral director" or just someone who can't deal with being on the wrong side of the arguement? He is right that the recovery is fragile but that the Conservative Party has staged any recovery is because of the membership's bravery and willingness to take a huge risk on someone willing to sell a modern and more optimistic view of what the Conservative Party, rather than continue the moaning and misery that ensured repeated electoral defeats.
No one doubts the difficulties ahead either for the Party or the country, but it is those who are positively engaging with the public on whom are fortunes depend, not thosewhose electoral slogan would be "WE ARE ALL DOOMED"

[Matt Wright]

I think Cameron has shown real steel and has come through the summer unflustered and stronger. That augers very well for him as a leader of the country. We need to keep projecting the new, positive ideas we have for taking the whole country forward. As for Brown, while not underestimating him, I think he is gravely wounded and I very much doubt he will be the next PM. Almost certainly smarter people in Labour will be thinking where do they go next and who should lead them. I just think Brown has too many weaknesses and people have cottoned on to them and this is happening when his party has become tired and in power too long. We definately should not be complacent and we should keep a steady but clear and confident course now that the public are getting on board and want to go on a journey with us.

Matt

[Tony Makara]

An important factor is that David Cameron has been leading the news agenda so often of late. At the time of Gordon Brown's coronation Brown enjoyed a great deal of publicity and he got a false reading in the polls. This gave Brown a false sense of confidence and he began to think about an election. This brought the best out of the Conservative party and key players got their act together and started to produce the policies everyone was looking for.

I agree fully about David Cameron's performances at PMQs which have been superb. Hard, aggressive QC-style questioning making Gordon Brown look as if he is on trial. Brown clearly can't handle having to defend his record in public. Gordon Brown looks jittery at PMQs and that stutter of his is a dead giveaway, the man is nervous and afraid of facing David Cameron's courtroom questioning.

[Letters From A Tory]

Pretty amazing numbers. As ever, some caution is required when interpreting these results but it certainly vindicates Cameron's tactics over the past six weeks.

[R.Baker.]

Can't wait for PMQs,Cameron's confidence will bring out the best in him and us,then we will really see a large percentage points spread in our favour.

[D'Artagnan]

So let's see if I've got this straight. Cameron is elected leader and the Tories all love him.
Cameron tells everyone they can't have tax cuts and the Tories stop loving him.
Cameron tells everyone that grammar schools are so bad you can only have them if you live in Bucks and the Tories really don't like him anymore.
Cameron tells everyone Brown is useless and the Tories all love him again.
Brown comes in and suddenly nobody likes Cameron anymore.
Cameron and Osborne change their minds and promise a tax cut and suddenly everyone loves him.
Cameron promises to clamp down on immigrants and the Tories go wild.

Changing to win?

[Yogi]

I am sure that Cameron, Gideon and the rest of the shadow cabinet recognise the fact that it was traditional Tory policies that have made the difference and continue to move forward, taking the rank and file with them - instead of the lurch towards the uber modernisation.

AT last common sense has prevailed, thanks to CH.

[Bruges Group NG]

For the first time since November 1990, we found loyalty, clarity and a coherent message at Blackpool.

Brown has duly unravelled, and the polls speak for themselves.

Shame it took us 17 years.

[Patriot]

Hopefully it's a pavlovian effect and the message is getting through judging by the recent welcome talk about the need for sensible immigration controls.

[RobD]

Yogi - yes it was traditional tory policies that have made a difference but they were framed in a way which is meaningful and not off-putting to today's voters....

Tax cuts focusing on unfair taxes and fully funded by those who are escaping tax currently.

Immigration framed in a compassionate way with focus on the effect on education, health and housing.

Without the last two years of image building it would have been impossible to talk about these issues without opposition claims of the tax cuts having enormous detrimental affect on health and education and the immigration policies being racist. In fact those claims were made by Labour but they are not sticking any more.

Cameron has spent the last 2 years getting the public to listen to us again, now they are listening it seems they like what they are hearing.

[Mike A]

CHILDISH COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

[James]

D'Artagnan>

The way I read it is:

1. Cameron leads the polls for 18 months.

2. Brown enjoys an entirely expected and surprisingly brief honeymoon in which Labour leads.

3. Brown's hoenymoon bursts, and Cameron leads again.

[David]

"Cameron has spent the last 2 years getting the public to listen to us again"

Exactly.

[Mike A]

Childish, Ed?

I said that I think our activists shouldn't have control of the Party agenda.

They have no vested interest in the Party's survival. They can afford to pontificate and lead the Party from defeat to defeat. MPs and PPCs cannot.

[Happy Tory]

Storming work from DC, GO and the rest of the team to a) make our brand acceptable to the general populace and b) reconnect with the Tory grass roots, in that order, is what has brought such an excellent restoration. Great work, David, George and co. Keep it up. Remember, (1) never get complacent and (2) it's all about balance.

[Yet Another Anon]

Re: Mike A | October 30, 2007 at 16:00

The Conservative Party places the 2 final candidates for the leadership before the activists to vote for, in the case of Labour 12.5% of the Labour MPs are needed for a nomination - this would have been enough for Liam Fox to be nominated and Kenneth Clarke, maybe Liam Fox would have won the leadership election then? Or maybe Edward Leigh or John Redwood would have ended up party leader?

The Party put forward IDS and Kwenneth Clarke as their main choices in 2001, the party activists then chose IDS, IDS was then removed by the MPs and replaced by Michael Howard without a vote, so how much choice did they have in 2005, in the 1997 leadership election William Hague was chosen under the old system by MPs, so as of yet no Conservative leader selected in the final ballot by the membership has yet led the party into either a General Election or a European Election.

[Mark Andrew]

It will be interesting if you can break down these percentages to Scotland, Wales and Englands Regions.

[Bradford Lad]

I think that we should remember that the man we have most to thank for the Tories being in such a lead in the polls is Gordon Brown!
This week especially, in the way he went to Portugal and signed The Treaty and broke his promise on the Referendum shows him in a pathetic light.
David Cameron has done well at Question Time in Parliament and in putting over policies,(good PR qualities), but we still need to be shown that he can get a grip on policies other than 'touchy feely' ones.
Big challenge Dave.