There will be no autumn election. The Clucking fist is about to pre-record an interview with Andrew Marr.
There are rumours of new polling containing bad news for Labour with the trends of recent days accelerating.
Ben Brogan was right and I'll be buying lunch.
Back to the rugby...
3.50pm: The BBC is now reporting the story.
He's bottled out?
Then let the fun begin........
Posted by: Patriot | October 06, 2007 at 15:33
What? No autumn election? We need to hear it from the chicken's mouth (sorry, horse's beak) - poor Gordon seems just so mixed up now!
Posted by: Teck Khong | October 06, 2007 at 15:33
What a shame, I was getting quite excited. Even though we would've lost, the drama of Mr Brown possibly being in charge of a minority government would've been riveting!
Osborne & co have a lot of work to do now to ensure that our economic/tax policy cannot be smashed to pieces by labour spin in the coming months. Coulson needs to make sure we are constantly setting the agenda too. These past weeks have confirmed that the more the public see of us, the more they like, but when we disappear from the screens our poll ratings plummet. It will be quite a challenge I expect to keep us equal or ahead...
Posted by: MrB | October 06, 2007 at 15:34
Are we absolutely certain of this?
Posted by: James Burdett | October 06, 2007 at 15:38
If this correct, irrespective of the polling data, I think it was the ugly mood from the audience on Thursday's Question Time that will have persuaded Brown that the game is up for an Autumn election. That mood change was the tipping point. The Brown Brand has become contaminated. And he knows it.
Posted by: John Fuller | October 06, 2007 at 15:38
Where has this come from?
Posted by: Alan Collins | October 06, 2007 at 15:39
If it's true I'm not surprised.
I'm very happy to say that my local MP now owes me a pint in my local. Given that I had undertaken to pay for the beer and distribute some election leaflets if an election was called in 2007, that will be:-
"Two pints, please, landlord - and no leaflets to take out. The lady over there is paying"
She knows who she is - and as I have absolute faith in her, I know she will pay up.
Posted by: Mike H | October 06, 2007 at 15:49
I don't think there is anyway that Brown can come out of this not looking like a calculating and scared politician; a man who thought he could win his own mandate but instead underestimated the Tories, and indeed the British people.
However, before I get too carried away, where has this information come from?
Posted by: Christian May | October 06, 2007 at 15:50
Just heard this on Five Live but read it here on ConHome first!!
:-)
Brown will apparently delay election until 2009.
Let us know if you need £10 contributions for your lunch with Ben, Tim. A delayed election is exactly what we needed.
Posted by: Umbrella man | October 06, 2007 at 15:50
This is just pure Tory arse. Absolutely made up. I've bet my house on June 2009 but hope Gordon lets us off the leash now to give Sham Cam and his No Note - No Votes speech the burial it deserves.
Posted by: Chris Paul | October 06, 2007 at 15:51
It is now on the BBC, I am happier that it is genuinely off now.
Posted by: James Burdett | October 06, 2007 at 15:54
England Win the Rugby and Brown Runs Scared!!!
What a Great Afternoon
Posted by: Peter Smallwood | October 06, 2007 at 15:56
I'm happy to buy lunch Peter.
My mood has shifted significantly.
A few weeks ago I was sure that there would be an election and that we'd lose heavily.
Today we're back as a political force with good policies and Brown hugely diminished.
And, yes, Peter - we've beaten the Aussies!!!
Posted by: Editor | October 06, 2007 at 16:00
Well done! You had it first at 1522.
Now on BBC and Sky, as well as Telegraph online.
Posted by: Richard Tracey | October 06, 2007 at 16:02
If Brown tries to hang on and see out the rest of his unelected term the scale of Labour's eventual defeat will put them out of power for a generation. This was Gordon Brown's big chance but he blew it. The man has no guts and no sense.
Posted by: Tony Makara | October 06, 2007 at 16:03
The party has played a weak hand well.
Mercer has also leanrt his lesson.
But will Andrew Marr discover a spine and actually challenge Brown on this or will he do his usual love in with Labour?
Go on Marr surprise us.
Posted by: HF | October 06, 2007 at 16:05
Yes, Tim. Congrats on breaking this first! A big day for ConHome. I hope you're right, HF. Marr must really go for Brown but I doubt that he will.
Posted by: Jennifer Wells | October 06, 2007 at 16:08
I didn't see Nick Robinson on TV but his blog says that tomorrow's News of the World will show a "significant poll lead" for us.
Posted by: Deputy Editor | October 06, 2007 at 16:11
let's hope we can continue to stick together now, and really hone these policies to explain them simply and memorably to the electorate. as DC implied - trea tthe elctorate with great respect and look for the common sense approach and answer. people are lovinbg this simple clarity.
Posted by: Jane Gould | October 06, 2007 at 16:13
Bugger. I think almost uniquely (?) I thought a November election would have been a fantastic thing for us.
Just laughing away at all these politico commentators on Sky News now coming on to say "of course he was never gonna call an election" -- och aye that's right, that's exactly what was all over the media last week.
Can't wait for PMQs on Wednesday though! Ha ha ha ha ha ha. You bottled it you bottling robotic psychopathic miserable loser.
Posted by: Graeme | October 06, 2007 at 16:17
What a coward. So what will the excuses be then? Postal strike combined with "I was never considering an election" I reckon!
Posted by: chrisblore | October 06, 2007 at 16:18
Well played Tim and thanks to Gordon Brown. Layed 1.5 on betfair for no 2007 election during conference.
Posted by: Andrew Woodman | October 06, 2007 at 16:18
Nick Robinson added: "Mr Brown's opponents will make hay. They will say that he has bottled it."
"The only source of comfort for Labour politicians is that in the end this is about Westminster calculations and is not a decision that affects ordinary people's lives.
Please could someone educate Nick Robinson that elections do affect people's lives.
Posted by: James Burdett | October 06, 2007 at 16:20
Some rapid (pre-prepared?) commentary by Matt D'Ancona for the Telegraph:
Posted by: Deputy Editor | October 06, 2007 at 16:22
"The party has played a weak hand well. Mercer has also leanrt his lesson." - HF (Oct 06, 2007 at 16:05). I am unimpressed. How has he learnt his lesson? Is his position really tenable?
I am not sure how true Conservatives at heart, or even Team Cameron, feel about Mercer and Bercow. Interesting comments heard at Blackpool....
Listerine, please!
Posted by: Teck Khong | October 06, 2007 at 16:23
I think we missed the other good news story!
Ming stays for another year at least!
Is it me or is the tide really changing this time?
Posted by: Peter Smallwood | October 06, 2007 at 16:25
Oh dear, what a loser. What was it Cameron said? If you treat the electorate like idiots you don't deserve to win an election (or even take part in one, apparently).
If we play this right, without going to over the top, we can wreck Brown's set-piece week of parliamentary events.
Posted by: EML | October 06, 2007 at 16:30
I'll believe it when I see it, Brown has been monumentally stupid in playing his cards if he is truly climbing down.
If this is true it must be the biggest scoop yet seen online!
Posted by: Ay Up | October 06, 2007 at 16:31
Someone should do a poster with the tagline "Afraid of the verdict of the Citizen's Jury?"
Posted by: James Burdett | October 06, 2007 at 16:31
"Please could someone educate Nick Robinson that elections do affect people's lives." - [James Burdett; Oct 06, 2007 at 16:20]
Some of us overheard Nick at the Imperial Hotel security checkpoint, and I can tell you he leans so much Labourwards that he makes the Tower of Pisa look absolutely upright!
Posted by: Teck Khong | October 06, 2007 at 16:32
Is it true that Brown's (is it Bunty) going to audition for the 'Chicken Run II (tm)'?
Chuckle chuckle
Posted by: Jie | October 06, 2007 at 16:32
Ah well...we had a chance to get him now....but we also had a chance of not making it....let us use the extra time to make it certain.
Posted by: eugene | October 06, 2007 at 16:33
Jennifer Wells. Adam Boulton just said this on Sky that Brown will make the statement “through a sympathetic interviewer”.
How can the BBC employ Marr in any political role?
Posted by: HF | October 06, 2007 at 16:38
The pundits are already tearing him to pieces on Sky and the BBC. This is very, very bad for him. Hurrah!
Posted by: Gareth | October 06, 2007 at 16:40
Amusing parallel with the Thomas the Tank Engine video that we posted earlier today.
Gordon tries to pull off a stunt and ends up in the ditch.
Posted by: Deputy Editor | October 06, 2007 at 16:41
So there we have it, a promise to lower taxes lifts us in the polls and scares off GB.
So much for green issues!
Now we need to build and sustain this lead over time. Easier said than done. If the last 6 months have taught us anything it's that these poll leads are very fragile and we are one idiotic policy statement away from unpopularity and a snap poll we may not want.
Posted by: Old Hack | October 06, 2007 at 16:42
"Today we're back as a political force with good policies and Brown hugely diminished.
And, yes, Peter - we've beaten the Aussies!!!"
Totally Agree Editor!
I think its time for some more alcoholic beverages to round off a successful afternoon.
I will try and pick up a News of The World on The Strand about 19.30.
Another quick note. Is the "psychologically flawed" nature of Brown really starting to show now?
Who would you want leading us in a crisis? This was Brown's strength a week ago. Cameron is now the man looking and acting like a statesman.
Posted by: Jacob | October 06, 2007 at 16:44
BREAKING NEWS!
NoW POLL
In 83 Marginals:
Conservative 44%
Labour 38%
Posted by: Jacob | October 06, 2007 at 16:46
Andrew Marr has just gone into Downing Street to interview Gordon Brown. Am I paying my TV licence fee to the BBC to act as a PR agent to Gordon Brown?
Why can't he come out on the doorstep to speak if he has something to say? This is live news, not a 20 minute summary of someone's life. Surely a recorded interviewat Downing Street on the day before Parliament opens is completely inappropriate.
And as far as Andrew Marr is concerned, he is the news reader that has now become part of the news. Won't trust him anymore.
BREAKING NEWS (SKY TV 16:45)
Marginals:
CON 44% LAB 38%
Would unseat 49 labour MPs in Marginals.
Converted to general election: hung parliament
Posted by: Steve N | October 06, 2007 at 16:46
I knew it!! I knew that if Brown backed off he'd find something else to cite for his decision. The electoral register issues came along as the perfect excuse not to have an election for Brown. You can be damn sure that if the Conservative poll numbers hadn't improved that the 'minor detail' of a million potentially disenfranchised voters wouldn't have stopped an election from happening. Surprised the postal strike wasn't cited. Mind you, it was labour who expanded postal voting (and the potential for massive electoral fraud) in the first place. More labour diversionary tactics.
Posted by: Stewart | October 06, 2007 at 16:51
With Great Crash 2 about to break loose (the first big housing bust, Great Crash 1 was 1989-96)a lot sooner than the miracle man expected it is little wonder that he wants to make sure he has 2 years to savour in the top job before being ejected by a very angry electorate who are now drowning in debt due to his promise of an everlasting boom fueled by cheap and easy credit but not a bust. Good news for Cameron who had better put together some serious policies between now and 2009. He has been tacitly supporting Brown's HPI-MEW-BTL miracle and shares in the blame for not making a stand against it--too many vested interests in the party no doubt.
Posted by: Real Istbear | October 06, 2007 at 16:51
Apparently we have a 6% lead in the marginals which stopped it...
Posted by: Matthew | October 06, 2007 at 16:52
...AND we've won the Rugby - How good can it get?!!!
Posted by: Sally Roberts | October 06, 2007 at 16:55
What's that Gordon? Never said there'd be one? No, but you sure as hell didn't say there wouldn't be. And it's for that reason you're going to be out of Downing St, and quite possibly Parliament within years.
Don't forget to let the door hit you on the way out! Toodles!
Posted by: Richard Lowe | October 06, 2007 at 16:55
Can I have my £20 now, then?
Posted by: Andrew Lilico | October 06, 2007 at 16:56
I am just putting the shine on my ammunition boots.....though out of an abundance of lawyer's caution, I shall wait until the white flag is flying.
Posted by: The Huntsman | October 06, 2007 at 16:57
Firstly congratulations Mr Editor, great scoop for Conservativehome. The decision will backfire on the Prime Minister, his popularity can only go one way especially when the economy starts to turn over the next year or so.
It will be a great week in the commons for us - CSR on Tuesday with growth forecasts reduced, PMQ's on Wednesday which Mr Cameron should take full advantage of and then a debate on the European Constitution which will hugely embarass the government. Things are certainly starting to look for us, hope we can really make it count!
Posted by: Paul | October 06, 2007 at 16:59
This is the most astounding political blunder of my 30 years in politics, Brown had us on the ropes but delayed and delayed and delayed.
The man is a serious politicaian but, just like Portillo, (in facy ABSOLUTELY like Portillo) he has no instinct about when to strike...
If he had called it on Sunday last week or even Tuesday during Cameron's speech the whole world would have been a different place.
A spectacular, epoch changing, government-wrecking blunder. He has completely blown it
Excellent!!!
Posted by: Treacle | October 06, 2007 at 17:01
The ITV News are now laying into Marr. “a pet broadcaster has been seen going into downing st to record the interview”
Posted by: HF | October 06, 2007 at 17:02
Remember Jim Callaghan in 1978, making a PM's broadcast to the effect that there would be no election when everyone had expected him to use it to confirm he would be calling one - and his song and dance routine "There was I, waiting at the church" at that year's Labour conference?
Any suggestions for a song that the Clunking Fist could sing from the Despatch Box next week? Slightly off the central theme, "Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word" might be a worthy choice.
Posted by: David Cooper | October 06, 2007 at 17:03
Can I have my £20 now, then?
Posted by: Andrew Lilico | October 06, 2007 at 17:22
Is it just a coincidence that when the Tory Party start talking about tax, immigration, Europe, law and order they put the government on the back foot, to point of bottling out of an early general election? Labour were 11 points ahead in the polls a matter of days ago, David Cameron finally shows himself to be a conservative at the Party Conference and Brown is caught short in no time at all.
Please Mr Cameron ditch this metropolitan, eco-liberal rubbish and continue campaigning on issues that matter to real, ordinary people who suffer day in and day out as a result of this government. You've made your point about change within the Party - now turn everything you have on Brown and the Labour Party.
Posted by: Den | October 06, 2007 at 17:59
I agree wholeheartedly with the comments on here
Brown's bottled it, the momentum's with us - let's use it, make hay while the sun shines and build a solid poll lead that will ultimately carry us back into government in 2010
Posted by: Paul D | October 06, 2007 at 18:06
Jacob posted at 16:44: "I think its time for some more alcoholic beverages to round off a successful afternoon.
I will try and pick up a News of The World on The Strand about 19.30."
As it's now 19.44 I'm probably too late. But if Jacob holds any sort of public position in the party, with all that drink inside him I hope it IS only the News of the World he picks up on the Stand tonight...would not want him appearing in the next edition.
Posted by: Londoner | October 06, 2007 at 19:46
The activity on this site is enormous compared with "labourhome". I wonder why?
Posted by: M Dowding | October 06, 2007 at 20:23
A good day. Things can only get better, and will.
However, we should not underestimate the gains we would have made in real seats in a real election on November 1 or even better November 8.
One of the problems we have had since about 1993 is that we looked like losers and we acted defensively like losers do. One day last week I suddenly realised that I was looking forward to the General Election which was going to be and I haven't felt like that since 1987.
We can now expect to see lots of rats swimming back to the Conservative ship. We should welcome them aboard but we must never forget that they are indeed rats.
Posted by: Westmorland Activist | October 06, 2007 at 20:27
Further to my previous post, labourhome have just 16 comments! Most are very p****d off!!
Posted by: M Dowding | October 06, 2007 at 20:42
Why is the speculation that it'll be 2009 before the next election? Why not 2008?
If it's 2009 it gives lots of time for this matter to be forgotten and the serious issues come back into play. We'll get to see how good Gordon is at the real stuff: running a country.
Let's hope for that country that he'll be better than we expect him to be.
Posted by: Al Gunn | October 06, 2007 at 22:31
Apart from the Tory party, it's a good day for UKIP (saved from bankruptcy) and the Lib Dems (half their MPs given a stay of execution), not to mention Salmond (unfortunately) and Blair (who'll be having a damn good laugh).
Posted by: IRJMilne | October 06, 2007 at 23:31
Not that long ago labour had posters stating "Not flash-just Gordon"
Last week Amanda Platell came out with the rather good "Gorden's-no tonic". How about "Gorden's no tonic, no bottle!"
Posted by: Louise Gibb | October 06, 2007 at 23:58
Yes Andrew Lillico you can have your £20. Tim has my email adddress and you can give me your details and I will send you a cheque. Otherwise nominate a charity and I'll send them the money and post you a receipt.As I've mentioned before I'm delighted to lose this bet.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | October 07, 2007 at 01:47
To use the Lincolnshire expression once used by Margaret Thatcher of an opponent.."He's (Gordon Brown) frit"
Posted by: pauline buffham | October 07, 2007 at 08:54
I feel as though it is Christmas already. Are the electorate at last starting to see through Gord? Any delay must surely gvie us a better chance.
I think I must find my badge from the 1966 election which says 'Dont say Brown say hopeless' which referred to George Brown - at least he had a bit of character and apparently liked a drink so they say.
For the younger bloggers it was a play on words on 'Dont say Brown say Hovis'.
Could these badges now make a comeback?! Doesn't it make you cringe listening to Brown saying he has delayed the election so the public can see his vision for the future. What a load of b......s
Posted by: Andrew Bradley | October 07, 2007 at 10:03