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Not going to spin this as other than a bad poll. BUT, it reflects Lab's conference and month. Tories need to keep calm heads and be resolute.

1. We had major successes across the country last night.
2. We will get a conference boost, providing the party is disciplined.
3. We are prepared to go at short notice. Following sweeping local victories we have many more activists.
4. The weather and daylight will affect Lab in Scotland.
5. Brown announces on Monday, his lead narrows on Wednesday. Tory activists were delighted with the results last night which gave a very different picture to the national polls. A bit of Maggie's courage is what's called for now. We can take his majority and get rid of this rotten bunch for good, so long as everyone does their bit.

Yes - 'a bit of Maggie's courage' indeed! As the Lady herself once said, this is no time to go wobbly!

"We will get a conference boost, providing the party is disciplined."

Isn't that a big "if" Activist? The words "headless" and "chickens" spring to mind.

I wouldn't get excited about a 50 vote lead in Little Snoring if I was you. The week before Tories were busy losing seats in Worcester and being beaten by the BNP some place else.

Maybe that's why theyve decided to lurch to the right.

Right, so, 3 polls in a row showing a Labour lead of 11%, 10% and 11% respectively. There'll be some padding there from a conference bounce, but this is a total disaster. Thanks, Dave and George for blowing it so comprehensively. The Tory majorities in safe seats will even be reduced like mine in Ashford. I think I'll emigrate.

Indeed. This is the time for the Light Brigade to charge!

I can see a Labour GenElec poster: A big picture of DC on a bike- looking like a...biker, with a picture of Tebbit in the foreground. I'll leave it to readers to fill in Tebbit's 'speechbubble'!

Comparisons with, 'last year' are pointless, this is, 'not last year!'

"I'm sure that Labour does have a real lead but opinion polls taken during party
conference season can mislead.

It was ConHome that advised ignoring all the summer polls and to wait until the Conference season wasn't it?

In retrospect, the Summer polls seem pretty accurate don't they?

Come on, face the bad news head on and deal with it, stop seeking to find a reason to discount them (as no such reason was applied during the Cameron new leader bounce against an unpopular pm near the end of his time etc).

We know Cameron can deliver an excellent speech, but the difference from 2005 is that no matter how great the speech, we cannot know who is really listening any more.

A reduced Labour majority at the next election will be progress. The opposite, imho will mean that Cameron must step down immediately.

"Maybe that's why theyve decided to lurch to the right."
Oh give it a rest Alistair. That's a meaningless insult.

There is much truth in your remarks, Mr Editor. A deeper truth is that the moment we hear Mr Cameron articulating concern about levels of inward migration or the growing problem of crime, we support him. By "we" I mean not only the core of Tory support but the millions of worried, disillusioned, taxed and indebted voters. Some two weeks ago, he made statements to this effect and the improvement in the polls was instantaneous. Then up popped Gummer and Goldsmith and the polls sank back. Don't be surprised if, in the light of recent statements, the polls look healthier again. Never forget that the modernisers predicated their entire "project" on the imitation of a Blair whose reputation had not yet been tarnished. They also took for granted that Labour would not mess things up a la Wilson and Callaghan. These assumptions are now dated and inapplicable. Labour's socialist imperatives mean that it will always favour the criminal over the public. Equally, in its fervour for a multicultural society it has lied about immigration and expanded the same to unendurable levels. The public is now aware of this and longs for someone to speak on its behalf; to speak for England. The premature and uncertain efforts in this direction of Messrs Hague and Duncan Smith should not deter Mr Cameron today. The boil is ready for lancing. With a steady hand and an iron nerve, Mr Cameron can do it. He must not flinch again.

"Last year in the weekend between the Tory and Labour conferences the main parties were both on 36%. Three weeks later an opinion poll by the same pollster (YouGov) put the Conservatives 7% ahead."

Yes but we were up against a tired and unpopular Blair. It was before Grammargate, Osborne's "heir to Blair" gaffe and the own goals by Goldsmith and Gummer. Brown has gradually increased his lead.

Lady T's stiletto may have inflicted a fatal wound in Cameron's career. He has only himself and his team to blame for serial misjudgements and alienating the Lady, her supporters in the country and the party grassroots.

The damage has been done and will take months, possibly years, to repair. But it is unlikely that Dave will have the opportunity if Brown calls a snap election.

Steve Hilton has given us a new definition of CSR - Conservatives Seriously Routed!
Sack him now and send him back to the Green Party (ideally with Goldsmith) before he does any more damage to the great Party of Peel, Salisbury, Churchill and Thatcher.

It's all a total disaster and has all gone so horribly wrong, these poll ratings are devastating even if we put in the margin of error. Yes we might get some kind of bounce next week but the personal poll ratings for DC are even worse, the whole thing now is about damage limitation and salvaging what we can from what is likely to be another disaster at the polls. To quote Lord Ashcroft "Wake up and smell the coffee".

Chad Noble has resumed posting here under his own name. The tone of his posts suggest that has he given up on UKIP and started supporting the Tory Party again. If so, why? We should be told!

Yes these polls are bad - and have been for a time now. What is important is that we keep calm and work - infighting now will only help the Socialists. Personally I'm not going to Blackpool - I reckon I can do far more working on the ground (in the West Midlands). I may not agree with some of things that some Conservatives have said - but that is irrelevant for now - I disagree FAR MORE with what the Socialists are saying AND DOING. I've been involved for long enough that I remember elections when we thought we were going to be stuffed - and won and also elections when we thought we would win and didn't. What we must all remember is that for now all internal fights can do is help the Socialists - and thereby do further harm to our country. We need to keep our nerve, work (VERY) hard, - and show exceptional tolerance for people in the Party who have a different point of view to ourselves.

Bravo, Ken. Whatever the weather, the Tories are better. Kinnock has done us all a service with his vicious, insulting language. I'll support Cameron to the hilt if it means deflating the Welsh Windbag.

Simon Denis 12.35. Blimey! That's good news. Welcome aboard. Whatever the differences between various brands of Conservatism everyone must realise that if we don't win we can't achieve anything.

Oh give it a rest Alistair. That's a meaningless insult.

Have you got some kind of problem, Chad?

How many partys have you been in now? There can't be many you haven't belonged to.

I hope you have rejoined the Tories. Could be bad news for them.


If the Tory Party does indeed start to pay as much attention to the issues labelled as 'right' as those labelled as 'left', then that would be a balanced agenda, wouldn't it?

I really don't mind which party helps promote equality of opportunity over equality of outcome.

Cameron's done a lot wrong, but has a chance to rebalance the agenda next week and if that helps erode Labour's majority, then that's good news if you ask me.

(Moral Maj - I haven't given up on UKIP at all, in fact I've only recently designed some high res posters for them to use at roadshows etc. I've just found that party membership in itself acts as an unnecessary barrier to cross-party policy discussion)

Look, apart from all of the 'let's pull together' stuff on here. Can I just make one point? I have not the faintest bloody idea where Cameron and Osborne stand on just about everything. They veer between left and right and shift both poliy and pronouncements so fast, it leads ineluctably to a sense that they want the jobs and frankly any route will do. There seems candidly and publicly to be no principle to anything that they do or say.

As for Dave himself, he comes across as all PR man and no substance. I mean saying you're going to send your kids to a state school when you have been educated at a magnificant private school yourself and you can well afford it for them just makes me want to vomit.

Dave and George use this week to articulate what you actually stand for AND THEN STICK TO IT. Then we voters can judge whether or not to back you. At the moment, we just don't even believe you.

The Telegraph says Lord Ashcroft's polling suggests a Labour lead of 5-6%, which I believe is MUCH closer to the mark.

Conference is important. Everything must be clear and united.

However, it looks like Brown's going to steal more headlines with more empty policy announcements. Seems like even during our conference we may be overshadowed...

Still, Cameron was voted leader of the party less than two years ago. Everyones minds were on a 2009 election at the earliest, no one was expecting Brown to have done so well, so it's no ones fault for our current position. Cameron was planning - and planning well - a review process that would have stood us in excellent stead for 09.

He is doing his best to speed this process up and at the conference will reveal some of the policies that will be adopted. He's making the best of a bad situation, and it's about time we all got behind the man.

There is no question in my mind of him leaving after the next election, if it is this year on next spring. He was voted leader with a view to at least 4 years in charge, and he should be given that time at least.

Keep calm!!!
Don't panic!!!
Its a post-conference bounce!!!
Wait until our conference - we'll win back the iniative!!!
It will be OK - Hold your nerve!!!

I love listening to the demented and delusional comments of Dave's cheerleaders. They really are quite mad - but who cares. Norman Tebbit, writing in the Sunday Times tomorrow, is set to endorse Brown. Our greatest and most successful leader and PM has already endorsed Brown and most of the voting public are itching to return him to office in the event of a GE. But just hold your nerve and don't worry it'll all be ok soon enough. It will all come right for Dave anytime now just you wait and see.
We are in a worse position than Michael Foot was in 1983 and still the morons leading the Conservative Party are convinced they can win and form a government. The Conservative Party will not govern until they commit themselves to a conservative agenda based on conservative values. They are doomed.
So bring on the next GE as soon as possible - I'm voting Brown just to spite the landed idiot leading the CP. If my vote along with the millions of others voting for Brown hastens the destruction of the liberal/left tendency in the CPP and brings about a sharp realisation among Tory MP's that they can only win by campaigning from the right, then it is my duty to do what is uncomfortable but neccessary.

David "Dave" Cameron - RIP (December 2005 - October 2007)

I hope they dance on your grave.

Cameron is off on another one of his adventures this time to a place called de Nile. I mean coming on 3 to 5 I could see a place for optimism but over 10?

He is going to go down in flames worse that Michael Foot. At this rate Cameron will be the worst leader the Conservatives have had in their entire history.

"....no one was expecting Brown to have done so well, so it's no ones fault for our current position. Cameron was planning - and planning well - a review process that would have stood us in excellent stead for 09."

Considering the amount of full-time researchers, policy review groups, opinion pollsters, etc, that CCHQ employ, are you seriously saying that there is no-one to blame for not fore-seeing that the public were desperate for serious politics - after ten years of vacuous Blairism - and that Brown, albeit by accident, seems to have fallen into the role of serious politician in the public's imagination ?

I seem to recall that there were constant calls in the media, ConservativeHome, etc. which cried out for a more serious approach, formulation of serious policy - but all we got were cries of "You can't produce policy this early in an electoral term" and "We mustn't jump the gun". Even calls for seriousness in setting a general policy direction were met with derision by the Cameroons.

Now, here we are, only weeks away from a fairly predictable election, and it looks like at least five more years of Labour incompetence, ineptitude and betrayal. All because the Cameroons lacked any foresight and common-sense, and were unable to read that the public were sick of leftie, limp politics - and that they were crying out for strong and decisive leadership on the hard issues: immigration, crime, Europe, taxation, etc.

It is arrogance and contempt that have caused this collapse in support for the Tories. The whole blame can be laid at the door of the secretive cabal who run the Cameron campaign for "David Cameron's Conservative Party".

"There is no question in my mind of him leaving after the next election, if it is this year on next spring." LoL. And pigs might fly and the moon is made of cheese.

We would stand a better chance if Daffy Duck was leading the party.

"Still, Cameron was voted leader of the party less than two years ago. Everyones minds were on a 2009 election at the earliest, no one was expecting Brown to have done so well, so it's no ones fault for our current position."

Oh come on. How long was IDS given? If a right-wing leader were doing this badly the sort of people who are now Cameroonies would be screaming that the current poll position was incontrovertible evidence of his incompetence and hopeless extremism.

I've just been talking to 6 tory activists, 3 of them councilors and we came to the view that we don't care what Cameron says at his conference. Why? Because we don't believe him. He has flip flopped so many times why should we follow him now?

Cameron will be in a bad way after this conference. Not only will the media be saying 'lurch to the right' if he adopts certain right wing policies as predicted but he will not get the right of his party back on side because we don't believe him. He needed to have sensible policies two years ago and should have stuck to them. Now he'll just look an even bigger opportunist to the electorate. What are voters supposed to think when they get all these mixed messages from Cameron? That he's a very confused man playing at a game he does not understand no doubt.

The problem is not just policies, it's also his image. He can try and sort out the latter but on the former he's done for.

My constructive advice is this: hope GB calls an election, we will of course be defeated and get a conservative leading our party.

I hope they dance on your grave.

A tad over the top, Den.

Stephen 'Tolkinghorne' - I'm not even going to bother arguing with your point of view because there's absolutely no chance of you changing it. Ever since I looked at this site on a regular basis, you and others like 'Traditional Tory' have nothing but sly remarks and negativity to spout.

We're the Opposition at the moment. There was an election just 28 months ago. Another election apparently looms (though I agree with Margaret Beckett that it shan't be till June 2009) in which we could well lose. We'll be the Opposition again. All Brown will have secured is another two years of government. Hardly slit-your-throats time.

Now, we can panic and throw away Cameron which will 1) reinforce the perception of the Tory party as unleadable, unelectable, and split 2) thus scrapping all the good work undoubtedly done since 2005 and 3) decapitating the best talent in the party.

Or, we can unite behind Mr Cameron, applaud all the good stuff that comes up at Conference (of which there will be a lot) and, if an election is called, aim all our guns at Brown and his underhand government rather than at each other.

Because the bare fact is - sad though it may be for some people to face - there is simply no one else in the Tory party who can run the party better than David Cameron has and will continue to. It seems Labour respect him more than many Tories - precisely because he is their opponent. They know, it seems, better than many on here, that he is our best chance of being elected, which is why Brown has systematically tried to crush him and the party since July.

But Cameron has rolled with the punches, is showing commendable energy and fighting spirit, and will no doubt deliver an excellent speech next week.

He's got the toughest job in UK politics - you'd think his own party would try and make things a bit more easy for him! He's got to balance moving the party to the centre ground, appealing to voters disillusioned with the Tories since 1997, Lib Dem voters and those - for instance - in Kent Labour marginals, whilst balancing on the other hand keeping the core happy: People like yourself, who - lets be honest - will vote for nobody other than the Conservatives at an election anyway, but whose negative spiel can only harm the party.

Controversial though the following statement will be, I'm going to throw it out there anyway, no doubt to get a bag full of abuse back:

If this party was populated by more David Camerons and less Norman Tebbits, it could quite conceivably win any election from 2008 onwards.

Chad Noble wrote "I've just found that party membership in itself acts as an unnecessary barrier to cross-party policy discussion".

So he is not a member of UKIP, just helping by designing posters. That is hardly a commitment or ringing endorsement from the former owner of Ukiphome.

New Ipsos-MORI gives Labour 41%, Conservatives 34% and Lib Dems 16%. All the polls this week give Labour over 40%. The Tories average out at 32-33% and the Lib Dems at 14-15%. The Labour lead is around 8-9%.

Labour will have a majority of well over 100. They would regain most of the seats that they lost in 2001 and gain most of the seats that boundary changes indicate should be Conservative. The only comfort is that the Lib Dems would struggle to get more than 25 seats.

Where are the Cameroon posters like Change2win and Jack Stone now? Hiding with embarrassment?? Change2disaster would be more appropriate.

"Another election apparently looms"

The Conservative Party will be the winner as Cameron will have to resign if the polls are anything to go by.

Reading some of the threads on here is very depressing

Individuals whom supposedly Tory but are prepared to vote for Brown because their agenda is not perceived to be catered for under Cameron, makes me feel why should I bother delivering leaflets & knocking on doors,but I will do so

Cameron was not to my liking but he is the leader and has acknowledged that to be electable the Conservative has to appeal to as broad a base of the electorate as possible

Not all voters want a red blooded right wing agenda but a balance and if we are seeking to represent all people we need to strike a balance, the best elements of the right and left of the party and present a united front

I hope and I believe Cameron is going to deliver a raft of proposals at conference that people will like and want to know more of. It will not be an easy task but for heavens sake the bile that is being direct at Cameron by those that claim to be his supporters helps only one cause Gordon Brown, if this energy could be directed to the real enemy and exposing Labour's miserable record and double dealing those poll ratings would tell a different story

My neighbours have told me they like Cameron & although not sure of his agenda are prepared to wait to hear what he has to say and present, however, they don't like the infighting in the Conservative Party & this is putting them off! how many more people is it putting off

Government will not be handed to us it has to be worked for, trust won back but not when malcontents seem more interested in their own agenda and to help with the everyone else

Edison Smith - you and others like 'Traditional Tory' have nothing but sly remarks and negativity to spout.

Oh now come on Edison. I'm not having that.

I'm eagerly and positively looking forward to the safe pair of hands that will take over when Cameron - as is now inevitable - departs.

Might I suggest that the biggest mistake was to allow the publication of all these policy reviews - they have really muddied the water.

At the end of the day I am willing to bet that none of Zac Goldsmith's suggestions will be taken up but the public's perception is that the Coservatives intend to introduce all sorts of green taxes.

John Redwood's suggestion of getting rid of Inheritance Tax is a vote loser too. If, as we are assured by the leadership, the Conservatives do not intend to cut overall taxes one must assume that a cut in inheritance tax will cause an increase in other capital and income taxes. I appreciate that people don't like to pay inheritance tax when they inherit granny's estate but if you want to please the most people by reducing or abolishing a tax on capital then attack stamp duty on houses - you don't have to die first to pay that one. And never ever increase income tax to pay for the abolition of inheritance tax. You will lose 10 votes for every one you gain.

Gary Farrimond - Completely and wholeheartedly agree with your points, good post.

"..just helping by designing posters"

LoL. :-)

They're a series of posters about the financial freedom lower taxes bring (early retirement to spend with loved ones etc).

A good message and one that used to be popular in these parts too!

Gary and Edison, the posters that are producing all this bile have done so for many months and all through the period when we were well ahead of Labour. I can't remember them ever writing anything positive.
I can only say this - Its highly unlikely people would agree with everything a leader says whoever they are and there are always times when strategies need modifying or refining. But fair minded people work as a team and don't deliberately mis-represent others just to cause damage. The pace or nuances of the strategy can be argued about but there is no doubt that a tiny, but very loud faction, wish us nothing but harm.

Most people want us to do well, including most of the people out there, ie the public. If common sense prevails and we focus on a practical theme and work together, we will be alright. I think Brown is and will be, a disaster for the country and between the two I would much rather have Cameron. In fact Brown is far more a spin artist and doing far more flip flops than any politician from any party at the moment. Whatever some of the media love-in what us to think, Brown is a complete fake. The public sense this but they want us to come out fighting.


The problem for many of us though, Matt Wright and others above, is that we find it hard to agree with an awful lot that our current leader has said. I work for the Conservative party because of what I believe in, it isn't football supporting; my team right or wrong. If my party changes to the point where I can't find anything much that I can support in what it says it will do when in Government then it is difficult to see why I would want to work to achieve that Government. Having said that I very much welcome the new realism that is coming through and I fervently hope that Conference will see a raft of announcements that will restore my belief in and support for the Conservative party.

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