The next opinion polls

It's shouldn't be too long before we get some more opinion polls.  They will measure the impact of recent events.  My prediction is that Brown's lead will widen a little.  The narrowing we saw in the most recent polls followed David Cameron's successful August fightback.  At that time we'd dominated the political stage in the same way a party does during the week of its Party Conference.

We need to keep remembering what I (and many others) said before Brown took over: We won't know the underlying state of public opinion until after the Party Conference season.  We shouldn't over-react to any polls until then.  There remains a real chance that Gordon Brown will have called a General Election by early October but that possibility has decreased because of the huge energy that David Cameron has displayed over the last month.

Anyway: here are the factors that could contribute to a larger Labour lead...

• Michael Ancram's questioning of Tory strategy;
• The comfort given to Gordon Brown by John Bercow, Patrick Mercer and Johan Eliasch;
• Gordon Brown's tough talk to the unions (unfortunately the media haven't really covered the extra taxpayers' money he has given to 'the brothers');
• The retreat from Basra has generally been interpreted positively;
• Criticism of Gummer-Goldsmith's plans to ban plasma televisions and charge for supermarket parking etc.

...here are the factors that could reduce Brown's advantage....

• The real sense that - despite lots of talk - Gordon Brown hasn't really done anything that will make a difference to peoples' lives;
• Incompetence over Foot & Mouth (there's another suspected outbreak today);
• David Cameron's National Citizen Service idea - warmly received in newspapers like The Sun;
• Growing concern at Brown's broken promise on a vote on the EU Treaty;
• Continuing trickle-through effects from August's rebalancing of the message.

Comments

[Luke]

I suspect that if a decision has been taken to call an early election it will have taken a long time ago (probably before Gb entered No 10) and polls won't affect the logic.

Its more a question of how bold he is prepared to be. if he doesn't call it this autumn he may well have to to serve almost a full term.

If he called one at the moment the liklihood is he would squeeze through with a majority.

But its whether he is prepared to take the risk. And neither the polls nor Tories will alter that decision.

Otherwise certainly a good analysis of the political wind at the moment.

[Scotty]

I agree with the factors you have listed which might influence the polls either way. I would also add the growing concern over debt, increased mortgage repayments and the constant trickle of bad news coming from the markets to factors which might reduce Brown's lead.

The main point though, is that I expect the polling figures to continue to show volatility for a wee while longer, especially as the conference season kicks off.

[Kevin Davis]

Hi, you might be right although I detect some exapseration with today's news of another suspected foot and mouth outbreak.

This is sticking to the Government and shows a degree of incompetence, especailly as Brown was the one who ordred the reduction in DEFRA's budget.

Brown is not going to want to fight a general election with the possibility of foot and mouth nreaking out during the campaign!

[Effie]

Scotty I do hope you and "Somewhere North of Nottingham" is paying attention to this thread.
We will see which one of us was correct.

[Old Hack]

Don't forget the impact of the conferences themselves. There could be more announcements to come.

[Mountjoy]

My reading of the polls is that the Brown Bounce is well and truly deflating, and I believe the next polls will show a slight Conservative lead. The reasons for this are too numerous to list...

[Yet Another Anon]

Gummer-Goldsmith's plans to ban plasma televisions
I don't think even Michael Foot or Tony Benn would countenance a policy of banning plasma televisions, surely if a particular brand of television was to be banned it would be Cathode Ray Tube ones which use huge amounts of energy and take up a vast amount of space - Plasma and LCD TV's free up a lot of space in people's houses and LCD monitors free a lot of office space too, these are innovations.

[Effie]

People complain about the Mail and Telegraph in my opinion the "Sun" newspaper gets dafter by the day.
Take this headline for example:

Cameron's National Citizen Service idea - warmly received in newspapers like The Sun;

I think this is the only place that sees this barmy idea as a good idea. Not surprising really when you think that the course Rebbekah Wade is trying to make it in "High Society" by clinging onto the Cameron's.

They will drop her like a lead ballon when he looses the next GE. At the moment she is useful or at least she will be until Murdoch tells her who the "Sun" is going to support.

[Jack Stone]

I have no objection to discussing opinion polls when they come out but really do we have to discuss ones that have not even been released yet.
This obession with opinion polls does no good whatsoever and is partly responsible for the nonsense and the panic we seem to get every time we are down or Labour are up in the polls.
Please lets stop it and put our efforts into defeating this terrible government not obessing about the polls all the time.

[Traditional Tory]

My reading of the polls is that the Brown Bounce is well and truly deflating, and I believe the next polls will show a slight Conservative lead. The reasons for this are too numerous to list...

Interesting observation Mountjoy. Based more upon sheer optimism than rationality I suspect.

Brown Bounce there may have been, but Gordon's accession also marked the Cameron Crash.

Cameron's entire Plan A strategy was based on the premise that the public won't vote for Conservatives any more unless they masquerade as Nulabourites. Maybe he was right. Blair became unpopular and Cameron benefitted.

Now Blair is gone we sem to have reverted to the 'default position'.

[Stand Up Throw Up]

The genius of Blair's departure (as I now see in retrospect) was that he brought down the curtain not so much on the "Blair-Brown era" so much as "Blair-Cameron" era. Cameron can no more survive without Blair than The Monkees could without The Beatles. Even I find myself giving the odd cautious grunt of approval to Brown when he pops up - contrasting strongly with the grinning Bliar. Ming Campbell must be furious--first the Tories nick woolly environmentalism, now Labour's pinched gravitas, (or at least, being a bit dull).

[Ned]

The clock is ticking on an Autumn election. I personally can't see it being any later than November 1 due to the lengthening nights and deteriorating weather, which would no doubt curtail turnout and hurt Labour most of all.

A November 1 election by my calculation must be called by 8 October as it must be 17 working days after dissolution plus one (as presumably dissolution could not happen until the day after Brown went to the Palace).

Realistically, 27 September may be Mr Brown's real deadline. That's the last day of the Labour conference. He would then be able to cause the cancellation of the Conservative Conference and hold it on October 25, before the clocks go back. Neither of these will be the case if he defers beyond the 27th.

Either way, whether it be 27 September or 8 October, the clock is ticking...

[englandism]

Our local returning officer has booked space for a count in October -is this a standard contingency arrangement?

[Editor]

Jack Stone: "I have no objection to discussing opinion polls when they come out but really do we have to discuss ones that have not even been released yet."

Expectations management is important Jack and we can be sure the next opinion poll(s) will get a lot of attention. I think all Conservatives should expect a slight improvement in Labour's position but should patiently discount polls until after the Party Conference season for the true picture to become clear. If I'm wrong about what the opinion poll says and the Tories close on Labour - good!!

I understand there'll be a YouGov survey in this weekend's Sunday Times.

[Steve]

The worry though Ed is that Mr Brown calls an election at the end of the Labour conference and before ours, as noted by Ned above...

Maybe on the back of improved polls for Labour and after a free week of publicity at their conference...

[Alan S]

Editor:

We shouldn't over-react to any polls until then.

Can we "over-react" then?

[Simon Denis]

Your analysis strikes me as fundamentally sound. The tragedy is that Mr Cameron might have avoided many of the tory negatives, had he been a half way decent politician. Even the Ancram intervention can be put down to the leadership's tactless and arrogant approach. Eliasch is a classic fair weather friend who should never have been courted by the tory party in the first place. Mercer is understandably furious. An able shadow minister he was sacked for little more than observing that rudeness of all kinds is endemic among rough, fighting men - including that particularly unfashionable kind of rudeness which draws attention to skin colour. He was in no way condoning it, but many will now imagine that he was, thanks to smarmy Dave. Doubtless, for the good of the party, he should rise above this, but wait until Dave hands the treatment out to you. As for plasma screens - the sooner the party ditches the younger Goldsmith and his potty tree-hugging, the better. Take these blunders away and Brown's incompetence looms. But they are there and the public is getting used to them, thanks to the modernist tendency.

[Yet Another Anon]

That's the last day of the Labour conference. He would then be able to cause the cancellation of the Conservative Conference
Even in the extremely unlikely event of an election this autumn as you suggest! Would the Conservative Party Conference be cancelled, or having been prepared for and given that during a General Election campaign it would grab the attention of the media surely it is more likely it would proceed with only necessary modifications, especially if it was early on in a campaign.

I think that from ever since the 2005 General Election, a 11 June 2009 General Election was almost certain and that both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have been planning on the basis that that was a provisional date since before Tony Blair announced on 30 September 2004 that the next General Election would be his last as Prime Minister and Labour leader.

[Effie]

Traditional Tory | September 12, 2007 at 14:02

One thing TT. you certainly bring people back down to earth and concentrate minds.
I look at your posts and thank goodness for sheer common sense which is not so common.
Shame quite a few of the optimists and dreamers that post here on a regular basis do not take a leaf out of your book and face stark reality.
Still we can all dream.

[Ned]

Agreed Steve.

Editor may be right that 'true' public opinion won't be apparent until things settle down after the conferences. But Brown won't be able to wait that long if he's going for a poll, unless he's looking at a mid-November election - sounds a bit unlikely.

If Brown's going to go, he'll have to do it during the conference season - or maybe very shortly afterwards. And if he's going to go, why on earth would he give us a week in the news before doing so? Hence my view that September 27 is the possible decision date.

[Ned]

"Even in the extremely unlikely event of an election this autumn as you suggest! Would the Conservative Party Conference be cancelled, or having been prepared for and given that during a General Election campaign it would grab the attention of the media surely it is more likely it would proceed with only necessary modifications, especially if it was early on in a campaign."

Yet Another - I don't think so. Would we really bring a huge number of our activists to Blackpool to attend drinks receptions etc when the opposition would be out on the streets across the country? In a GE campaign, everyone gets lots of publicity so a conference would not generate much more - in my view.

[activist]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

[Michael Davidson]

All this talk of huge green taxes and banning plasma TV's will not go down well with the public, so I wouldn't be surprised if Brown's lead solidified. Brown hasn't done anything of much use, but then again, he hasn't made any big blunders like we seem to be doing.

[Philip]

I believe that the next opinion polls will show a mixture of small Labour and Conservative leads.

I think that the date of the next election will depend on the findings of the next opinion polls, whatever people say.

I think that what David Cameron needs to do is to consistently produce a good balance of centre-right and centralist issues. This would keep the traditional Conservatives happy and the new ones too.

[Common Sense]

It's one thing for lefties to lie about our policies but why are Conservatives on this site misrepresenting Zac Goldsmith's proposals?

For the record, the Quality of Life policy group is NOT arguing for banning plasma screen tvs. The plan is that manufacturers should adapt the standby function on remotes so that they switch off after a set period. Why? Because devices on standby are responsible for 2.5% of carbon emissions in the UK and many people leave them on for days on end.

That's commonsense Conservatism and we should all be backing it instead of carping.

[eugene]

The Conservatives have been in the news a great deal lately...and some of it has been positive and some of it has been noticed as BBC pro-Labour propaganda (which gets peoples backs up). I would expect the Tories to take a poll lead soon

[Philip Mutton]

Commonsense, you have got it all in one. Like studying at A-level you must read everything and not just the obvious before coming up with a decision.

[TomTom]

I suspect that if a decision has been taken to call an early election it will have taken a long time ago

Brown will announce at the Labour Conference that the Election has already taken place and his government was returned unopposed......he likes those kind of elections

[Moral minority]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN FOR RELENTLESS NEGATIVITY.

[Yet Another Anon]

Brown will announce at the Labour Conference that the Election has already taken place
Or perhaps he will start a short speech that seems to indicate he is going to call a General Election before ruling it out at the moment.

[John]

Patrick Mercer, came very close to condoning racist abuse along with other types of abuse with his far too relaxed attitude towards unacceptable behaviour in the army. It’s simply not good enough to say "But that's the way it is in the army" or show complete indifference to the news that Commonwealth soldiers were forming a trade union amid complaints of racism and abuse.

It would seem for Patrick Mercer the concerns of the Commonwealth soldiers amount to nothing more than "absolute nonsense, complete and utter rot" and because Mercer’s position did require someone with racial sensitivity David Cameron both in principle and in politics had to dismiss Patrick Mercer.

Under the flag of patriotism, Mercer perhaps inflicts his vengeance upon David Cameron and the Tory party, because the only way Mercer can fulfil his need to be the Minister for Homeland Security (I am he) would be if his good friend David Davis is at the helm. There is much method in Mercer’s Gordon Brown tent madness and the stench of betrayal and contemptuous lack of support for Cameron fills the air.

[Raj]

Traditional Tory

I see that once again you refuse to put your money where your mouth is and say what YOU think the polls will be like and why.

It's so much easier to just fault people on what they say, wait until the results come in and then pretend you knew all along that was going to happen.

Pathetic.

[seasider]

I think that this perceived latest disaster of a report will put the Party in a bad light yet again, and if the next polls are good for Brown he will go for an autumn election.

I think David Cameron has tried his best to make changes in the public perception of the Tories, but he has not been a strong enough leader to do it, and using unfortunate expressions like 'decontaminating the brand' is just not helpful. Consequently after a string of jeered at photo. opportunities, flip-flopping ideas, and hastily 'stamped on' potential policies, the party has become confused, anxious, and difficult to lead. The only conclusion to be reached is that Brown will win the next election, and Cameron will have to stand down and allow the party to look for his replacement (Again!)
And who will step smartly forward to take advantage of another opportunity...Patrick Mercer.

As has been previously mentioned, Mr. Mercer is a forthright man, and it is common knowledge in his constituency that when he left the Army at a comparatively young age, he was looking forward to another aspirational career, and why not?
He decided to enter politics when the party was in dire straits, working on the assumption that sometime in the future the party would again lead the country, and it was a safe bet to throw his lot in with them.
But as a humble back-bencher after a previously celebrated career? Hardly.

Mr. Mercer is even now campaigning for his future, and that is to be leader of the party. And perhaps his prospects are good, in view of the fact that as the party and the country continue to reject Mr. Cameron and his softer greener politics, is another 'lurch to the right' with a forthright old soldier the answer?