It's soon going to be difficult for Brown not to call an autumn election....

A new opinion poll gives Labour an 8% lead.  MORI for The Sun put Labour on 42%, the Tories on 34% and the LibDems (with a negative conference bounce) on 14%.  The previous MORI survey - at the start of the month - had Labour 5% ahead.

It's now going to be difficult for Brown not to call an autumn election.  He has encouraged speculation to such an extent that he's in danger of looking weak if he now decides to wait.

Comments

[Libertoryan]

National Prediction: LAB majority 130

Not good!

[mark]

Getting worse.Not see one Tory on tv over the weekend.Where are they?

[Tony Makara]

Just think we might be a month away from getting rid of this awful, deceitful, failed Labour government. Gordon Brown will never be in a stronger position than this. I'm wooried what the Liberals will do in th even of a hung parliament. This is a real possibility. Ming has already indicated he would horse trade with Labour. We don't want to see another Lib/Lab pact. I don't think support for Labour in the country is anywhere near as strong as these polls suggest, but a Lib/Lab arrangement is a worry.

[Edison Smith]

One of these days we're going to receive some good news!

[Edison Smith]

Getting worse.Not see one Tory on tv over the weekend.Where are they?

Indeed. Where on earth is Peter Ainsworth??

Foot & Mouth and the country's first case of Bluetongue, and the guy is nowhere to be seen. Again.

And he's a Surrey MP!

The mind boggles.

[Editor]

Peter Ainsworth was clipped on the 9am BBC1 news bulletin, Edison.

To be fair to our frontbench it is hard to get any publicity on day one of Tory conference.

[HF]

He has to call an election or be seen as weak.

[Drusilla]

To be fair to our frontbench it is hard to get any publicity on day one of Tory conference.

That's quite an impressive Freudian slip, Editor!

As for telly-Tories, to give credit where credit is due, Mike Penning produced a perfectly respectable reposte to Labour's hospital cleaning scheme, which made it on to this morning's news bulletins. Still, that's probably not enough to win us any forthcoming election, is it? Odd that the more Cameron flaps around making noises, the less the electorate seems to have any patience with him ...

[Editor]

Thank you Drusilla and I will be very cross with anyone who blames the very nice Australian Shiraz next to me for that error!

[Edison Smith]

Peter Ainsworth was clipped on the 9am BBC1 news bulletin, Edison.

To be fair to our frontbench it is hard to get any publicity on day one of Tory conference.

Okay, it's a start.

But I want to see his chops all over the media in the coming days. It is hard because of the Labour conference, but that's all the more reason to get angry and attack. The more their conference is overshadowed, the better.

It is unbelievable how the government have got off scott-free over the whole Pirbright saga etc and F&M. There's farmers losing their livelihoods down here and Brown's seemingly too concerned about his own electoral plight to care. So, too, are the media.

Attempts to get attacks on the government aired might continually fall on deaf editors and producers ears, but Ainsworth shoud be busting a gut in the attempt!

The Countryside Alliance have appealed to Brown to delay any election until after F&M has been sorted.

The Conservatives should have come out in full support, attacking Brown for ignoring his duties.

[Den]

I have consistently called for Cameron's head - now I think to myself - what difference will it make? To be honest if it came between Cameron and Brown; it would have to be Brown. If its good enough for Mrs Thatcher its good enough for me. Its a truly sad state of affairs but still Cameron's cheerleaders will tell us we are mad and a few bad polls don't mean anything. Call me delusion but Brown's been comfortably ahead in the polls since he became PM, I see a pattern emerging there. Or am I just another mad reactionary right-winger loosing my marbles? I am in doubt of the answer; this is after all conservativehome.

[Afleitch]

If the Lib Dems poll as low as 14% I'll eat my rosette, pin and all. It's the non Labour and Conservative figures that strike me as odd in poll after poll.

[mark]

I think Maggies visit to Downing St was very telling.I think she feels her legacy is safer under Brown than Cameron.My parents who've been life long Tories are even saying "this Gordon Brown seems ok" I'm not taken in enough to vote Labour and i,unlike many have'nt forgotten who's overtaxed,stolen our pensions and held the purse strings the last 10 years.For some reason a lot of people have forgotten though and believe me if staunch Tories in their sixties like my parents don't think Mr Brown is that bad we are in big big trouble.Who's job is it to remind them he is indeed that bad? The opposition.Where the hell are they? Wake up Mr Cameron and shake that fronch bench from it's slumber too!

[Jaz]

The British people hate change.... Is the conclusion for all the recent polls it would seem.

[Comstock]

"If the Lib Dems poll as low as 14% I'll eat my rosette, pin and all"

I agree. I think people are more likely to vote tactically in the real thing than they are to answer tactically in an opinion poll.

For example, I'll bet many Labour supporters in the south-west will answer 'Labour' to a pollster, but when it comes to the real thing they will vote LD tactically.

That said, I don't think this is gonna be a bumper election for the LDs......they've gone up seatwise 3 elections in a row and I see nothing to suggest it will be 4.

[Harvey C]

where are our articulate and media savvy spokespeople? The public have no idea what we stand for (nor for that matter do most of us). We should be pulling this government to bits and getting our voices heard as much as possible. The country is in major difficulty - economy failing , Filthy hospitals, large school classes, crime associated with immigration, Northern Rock and what is happening - Labour (after 10 years) is increasing its share of the vote. How long more do we need to endure the wilderness of opposition. Are our new enthusiatic PPC's making their voices heard ?

[Tory Lady]

Anybody noticed the satin/silk Pastel Ties which are being worn by Brown, Darling etc- the image of power, control, coolness, chic and confidence. Certainly a makeover by New Labour fashion "apparatchiks".

[MrB]

I remain of the view that the poll lead would narrow significantly once we get equal media coverage. Think about it, have we had many high profile stories on the news channels lately, compared to the Government? When we did (during the Rhys Jones tradgedy) we ended up level pegging with Labour.

A lot of you complain that Cameron is entirely PR and spin focused, yet you seem strangely drawn to Brown, and why? Becuase he can put on a "serious face" in times of difficulty for our nation and stand outside Downing Street with Margaret Thatcher. It has become clear to me in the past few weeks that David Cameron is far more of a Conviction politician than Brown is.

[david]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

[Henry Mayhew - 'kipper]

This is becoming surreal. Mr Cameron reminds me of my O Level Economics teacher. He let us bunk off for a year to great popularity before being condemned by one and all just before the exams. What price Cameroonism today?

[Teck]

"To be fair to our frontbench it is hard to get any publicity on day one of Tory conference."

Sorry Editor (Sept 23, 2007 at 21:59), I think you meant the first day of the LABOUR conference!

:-)

[mark]

Only glimmer of hope i see is a growing air of smugness amongst Labour supporters and a fair few Labour M.P.s.This could be their undoing.Remember Neil Kinnocks' arrogance at that Sheffield rally in 1992.I seem to recall Labour being 4 or 5 points ahead in the polls then.John Major turned that round with the largest ever popular vote.

[Cllr Francis Lankester]

I looked up the campaign bulletins and Localisers I have saved-NHS, NHS dentistry, Labour's garden grab, green issues-but what are WE going to do, with what money from where? where are the positive policies?

[Radical Tory]

Gordon just call the election and let's get this done with. We can't carry on like this. I knew this would happen but I was dismissed as a right wing nutter.

[Teck]

Cllr Francis Lankester (Sept 23, 2007 at 23:03), I am still waiting for a response to my offer of assistance to formulate our policy for healthcare provision (dentistry included) with proposals for a new health system that addresses the burgeoning difficulties in the NHS.

Maybe Team Cameron will want to use 30 years of experience working in the NHS with involvement in BMA affairs such as being a regional president, membership of the Local Medical Committee, and the support of patients and colleagues everywhere.

[Will]

I've just sent in a first 7 day plan for my consituency. I still don't think it will happen but who knows?

[Moral minority]

Mark wrote "I seem to recall Labour being 4 or 5 points ahead in the polls then. John Major turned that round with the largest ever popular vote."

John Major was in government ("better the devil you know") and we are now in Opposition. Only a lack of testicular fortitude and/or Brown trousers and/or Labour dosh can stop an autumn election.

[Ephraim Gadsby]

There will not be an autumn election. No way.

Apart from anything else, Brown is too cautious to risk being thrown out before he's had chance to do anything.

Elections have been in spring/summer for too long now - May/June have almost become the "official" election months, almost by convention. Out of season elections have tended in the past to happen in times of crisis - e.g. 1974, 1931 - or when the government has run out of steam and just can't go on - e.g. 1951, 1964. Neither applies in this case.

[Paul Oakley]

Nil desperandum!

[Opinicus]

@Teck

Dont hold your breath

[Simon Denis]

How Tony Makara can maintain this tone of optimism defeats me. Perhaps he is a scoutmaster. Be that as it may, the attitude is grotesque. Mark's comment hints at the scale of the conservatives' misjudgement. Lifelong tories in their sixties are so repelled by Cameron's antics that they sink into the widening jaws of Brown. The Cchange boys used to make a sneering claim to have learnt from tory mistakes. Don't elect another Hague, they said. Then they backed an inexperienced, back room chancer. Like Hague, Dave has tried to appear young and hip and cool. These are the last things the public like to see in a politician, and least of all do they like to find it in a tory. Blair has only confirmed them in this attitude. But they elected him! Oh yes, they elected him - on a reduced turnout, under skewed boundaries and after five years of Major's floundering incompetence. These inconvenient and lop-sided aspects of reality were rarely if ever included on the modernisers' tidy, symmetrical diagrams. Unlike Hague, however, Dave has done his best to stick with the baseball hat. It slipped recently on immigration, but he clapped it firmly back onto his head with a lot of green claptrap from Goldsmith. The consequences of this bigotry may well be historic. Conservatism as we have known it could join English Catholicism, absolute monarchy and the House of Stuart as a great, lost cause. Bonnie Prince Dave, as shallow, cocky and useless as his Royal prototype will retire for ever from public life. Those of us on the right may well have to find some other way of advancing our case - perhaps by rejoining and broadening the liberal party, back towards its free market foundations. Who knows? Whatever happens we should all remember just who the people were who recommended this suicidal course of alienating the core vote. Perhaps they are pleased. They could not have done more to jeopardise the cause had they been socialist moles.

[Treacle]

I'm sitting in my trench with what's left of my weary and disillusioned troops.

All I can see is thousands of fixed bayonets in their trenches and a miserable looking Scottish geezer with a bloody great whistle.

He would be mad not to blow it and when he does it will be everyman for themselves.

But I'm sure our 'Fuhrer' has secret weapons up his sleeve, so I am not worried.....

[Old Whig]

So where did we go wrong? Why are we facing another electoral defeat in the next few weeks or months? Sadly, this is not too difficult to work out this time around.

We elected a very arrogant and inexperienced Leader who thought that he knew it all and that he could repeatedly insult the Conservative electorate with silly policies and announcements and still count upon their loyalty. Remember the Terry's chocolate orange nonsense at the very start of his leadership? It now seems that it set the tone for all of the other rubbish that we had to endure over the past two years.

Since that time the public have baulked at the "hug a hoodie" incident, sniggered at loony green proposals such as the removal of white lines from the middle of all roads, switching off the street ligbhts across the UK each evening at a certain time and the prohibition of cotton buds.

On a more serious note, the Conservative electorate were deeply annoyed about the turn against grammar schools, the proposal to support all of Labour's spending plans for the first three years of a future Conservative Party government and the latest hints in the Gummer-Goldsmith paper that they would consider restricting the Right to Buy.

The current leadership has been so concerned with changing the image of the Conservative Party that they seem to have forgotten whatr we stand for. In truth, we are more out of touch with the electorate now than we were under either William Hague oe Micharel Howard's leadership. The Cameron Boys thought that hoards of trendy socialists and liberal democrats would join us if only we abandoned all of our principles and turned ourselves into a a greeny social democrat party. They were wrong.

Our local constituency associations are now weaker in tewrms of membership than ever. The oldies have continued to die off and they have not been replaced by the massed ranks of Islingtonia. Not that the central party are worried about that. Once an association falls beneath 300 members they can be taken virtually under central control. At which point the local associations lose most of their control over selections.

Which brings me to another point. Parliamentary selections have been handled shamefully under the current regime. Most of the skilled activitists of both Right and Left were cleared off the Candidates List in the early days of Francis Maude's regime. Don't get me wrong, I have no objection to new blood (except where is comes directly from the Labour Party just moments before a selection), but what we have seen in recent months has been nothing short of a purge of the independently minded.

The Conservative electorate have rumbled all of this and they have decided that they don't see the point in voting for a Conservative Party that just offers a posher version of the leadership that they are already given by Labour. After all, many voters reason that we are now so close to Labour that we are happy to lend them a couple of our MP's to work with them on the development of Labour policy.

By the way, if you don't think that the current leadership is arrogant just remember the "David Cameron's Conservative Party" incident

[Yet Another Anon]

May/June have almost become the "official" election months, almost by convention
since 1992 General Elections have always been held on the same day as other widespread elections.

Margaret Thatcher held both the ones she called in June because she liked to see how the Local Elections went. The General Election was only in June in 2001 because of there being a nationwide occurrence of Foot & Mouth and the government was worried it might be seen as presenting a risk if it went to the country until it was more under control. If the General Election is in 2009 it will be on 11 June because the EU Elections can't be moved, if it was to be held next year I imagine it would be in May on the same day as the Local Elections. The last November General Election was in 1935. Generally throughout the 20th century May was far and away the most common month for a General Election, although June and October were also common and February was probably the next most common. March and April elections for some reason are actually quite rare. The most unlikely months for a General Election are January, July, August, September and December (The last December General Election was in 1923). There was a run of General Elections with quite unusual dates in the first quarter of the 20th century.

[Scotty]

"Gordon just call the election and let's get this done with. We can't carry on like this. I knew this would happen but I was dismissed as a right wing nutter."

Radical Tory I would not dismiss your claim to be a right wing nutter, especially after that perfect example of the good old defeatist attitude of some on the right when the going gets tough. I can almost hear your cry of "fellow conservatives head for the core vote bunker and do not stop till you get there"
You could not find the word positive in a dictionary never mind in action on the political landscape. If it is not full of negative doom and gloom and marked dog whistle then it can't be a classed as Conservative in your book!!

[dale]

'There will not be an autumn election. No way.'

I'm really going to laugh when the election is announced and you 'no autumn election' fruitcakes are proven wrong.

[fibbingdems]

Well well the Fib Dems are heading in the poll direction they richly deserve.... excellent

I wonder how English these polls have been though? "The Wrong Man" would certainly loose out to the SNP in a general election. That would answer the Midlothian question now wouldn't it!

[activist]

Editor you may want to update this post. The Sun/Mori found that without an EU Referendum, Labour's lead evaporates to 37/36.

We must have a referendum and campaign passionately for a 'no' and this should be a big theme at conference.

[Richard Tyndall]

Mike Smithsons analysis of the MORI poll on PB is interesting.

He says the figures show that if Brown agrees a referendum then his lead extends well into double figures.

If he goes into the election refusing a referendum then that 8% lead suddenly drops to just 1%.

The Sun are pushing that line very hard. If Brown were now to agree a referendum and then call a snap poll I think it would be all over. If he doesn't but stil goes for the poll then it is far more open.

[Traditional Tory]

I think Maggies visit to Downing St was very telling.I think she feels her legacy is safer under Brown than Cameron.

A Cameron triumph would have confirmed a Blulabour/Nulabour consensus hegemony which would have marginalised for the forseeable future Thatcherism, Traditional Conservativism, and all other non-PC ideologies currently associated with the Conservative Party.

As it is, Blulabourism now faces not marginalisation but annihilation.

[James Maskell]

Gordon Brown is trying to exude calm and confident leadership. Yes he runs off when times are hard but the press never pick it up.

Where is the Shadow Cabinet? They should be out in front of the cameras kicking up a stink. Labour have a free hand this week because we allow them to have one.

Brown is to talk about crime and health, making pledges. Something us Tories havent had for some time now. Looking at the BBC spiel about this speech its sounding like a good solid, re-assuring one that the public can easily cotton onto. After almost two years, perhaps its time for us to come out with some defined policies. Social responsibility is a concept not a policy.

We are fast becoming a joke party and I am fast losing my patience.

[Giles McNeill]

In Gordon Brown's & Jack Straw's 'The Governance of Britain' paper (chapter 1 sections 34-36) they propose that the Prime Minister would "seek the approval of the House of Commons before asking the monarch for a dissolution" of parliament.

It would be interesting if in the next few weeks Gordon Brown calls a general election, but does not consult parliament on it's disolution as the paper states that: "this will, through precedent, become a constitutional convention." So no legeslative change is apparently needed.

Maybe that's a question Nick Robinson should ask the Prime Minister if he can't get an answer on the date of an election?

[Teck]

Thanks, Jonathan (Sept 24, 2007 at 00:13), I understand.

[Bill]

David Cameron and his supporters have achieved
what I had previously considered impossible: my contemplating voting Labour. Still if I don't vote Labour I could always vote UKIP instead which might be a consolation to the Cameroons.

[James Maskell]

dale, I wouldnt find it funny at all if the election was called early. I would be horrified if that were to happen.

[Yet Another Anon]

Where is the Shadow Cabinet?
Who knows, maybe they're even coming up with some policy decisions and waking up a bit?

[Serf]

Whilst I have never been a big fan of Cameron, I would happily strangle the twits that constantly claim to be right wingers and at the same time praise Brown.

Gordon Brown has always been and will always be a socialist. He hates everything that is good about our country and is determined to make everyone dependent on the state. How anyone remotely conservative can fail to see this is beyond me.

Elections are the choice between the lesser of two evils, not some wonderful choice between a party that represents everything that you want versus one that is the opposite. On any objective measure, Cameron is the lesser of the two evils (unless you are a socialist).

If Brown wins the next election, the EU constitution will pass, and our country will be no more. (The constitution has provisions for change without needing a new treaty). That on its own should be enough for all rightwingers to support Cameron. Waiting to win the election after that with a better leader is not an option that we have the luxury of taking.

[Torygirl]

It is time Dave and his pals came out fighting. They are supposed to be the opposition, but so far,they have done nothing but appease Nu Labour, no wonder they are called Blue Labour.

Are we heading for a "Totalitarian State"??

[Iain]

"Are we heading for a "Totalitarian State"??"

Looks like it, we have an emasculated Commons, whipped and guillotined to death, Conservative MP's not having any integrity and seeking to assist Brown, and an opposition who you wouldn't trust to get an order at McDonalds right without messing it up.

But cheer up, there will be someone on Any Questions next week to argue the economic case from a Conservative perspective, Jeff Randall, there will also be the usual lot from the amorphous the centre ground Westminster village.

[Andrew James]

This is a truly awful poll. I am comforted only by the fact that Mori's polling was the most erratic when the Conservatives took the lead over Labour December 2005. There was an 8.5% Lab-Con swing over the course of two consecutive polls. UK Elect gives a Labour majority of 118:

Lab 384 (+37)
Con 221 (+8)
SNP 12 (+6)
LD 10 (-50)
Oth 23 (-1)

Complete disaster for Ming, and I don't think for a moment that he'll do quite this badly. Local Lib Dems will still do well, and many rural Lib Dem seats in the south will not be inclined to vote Labour, and given the current weakness from DC, will stay with Ming. The SNP do very well in Scotland at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems - Conservatives gain Berwickshire (Michael Moore's seat) and West Aberdeenshire at the expense of the Lib Dems.

[Ned]

Nick Robinson reports that he has been "told" that 25 October is off the agenda.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/

If that's true, I would say that the chances are no election this year. If Brown was serious about it, he would go at the end of this week, completely overshadow the Conservative conference (should it even happen) and have the Poll before November darkness and cold arrives.

I can see no positives for him in delaying to November, therefore if 25 October is out so is an election this year, in my view. Depends on Nick Robinson being right, though.

[Editor]

Thank you for that Ned. I've just posted a ToryDiary on that.

[Dale]

'dale, I wouldnt find it funny at all if the election was called early. I would be horrified if that were to happen.'

the election wouldn't be the funny part. it would be disapearence of all of people that say 'there won't be an election because the weather isn't likely to be very nice' that would be hillarious

[Traditional Tory]

I think Maggies visit to Downing St was very telling.I think she feels her legacy is safer under Brown than Cameron.

A Cameron triumph would have confirmed a Blulabour/Nulabour consensus hegemony which would have marginalised for the forseeable future Thatcherism, Traditional Conservativism, and all other non-PC ideologies currently associated with the Conservative Party.

As it is, Blulabourism now faces not marginalisation but annihilation.

[Thomas]

Serf @ 10:35.
If Brown wins the next election, the EU constitution will pass, and our country will be no more:
Do you honestly believe that by electing Cameron the sequence of events will change any?

[Steve]

I'd just like to know who the hell they are 'polling'.

Poles?.