If you've just returned from the sun and are preparing to return to work tomorrow, here's ConservativeHome's quick guide to the month you've missed...
The beginning of the month began with a hangover from July. Lord Kalms, Ali Miraj and Lord Saatchi had just intervened to add to the opinion poll gloom clouding the Conservative Party. But a ConservativeHome poll of members found that 87% wanted David Cameron to continue as leader. Members were divided on whether there needed to be a change in strategy but they were very largely united in support of Mr Cameron's leadership. The same survey identified Michael Gove as the favourite new member of the shadow cabinet.
Concerns about Lord Ashcroft surfaced for the first time in the month. First, The Guardian raised the alarm and then The Daily Mail's Peter Oborne spoke of Lord Ashcroft's coup d'etat at CCHQ. ConservativeHome readers were divided as to whether he was a good or bad thing. His fans paid tribute to his generosity to the party and the desperately-needed business discipline be brought to operations. His critics worried that no single donor should ever enjoy such power in a political party. This is a concern that is set to rumble on.
The introduction of a blue version of the Tory logo generated quite a little bit of summer silliness. Was it a sign that Team Cameron wanted to reassure its core supporters? Throughout August there were certainly many actions that reassured the base. There was William Hague on Europe. George Osborne signalling that the Tories hoped to cut inheritance tax after he had helped John Redwood launch the policy group report on economic competitiveness. David Cameron put crime and social breakdown at the heart of his attempt to discourage Gordon Brown from holding an autumn election. And then, in a very impressive performance on Newsnight, David Cameron told the nation that immigration was "too high".
August saw two of ConservativeHome's 100policies ideas adopted. Damian Green announced welcome action against forced marriages (originally proposed by Louise Bagshawe) and David Cameron announced that underperforming primary school pupils could be forced to resit Year 6 (Richard Robinson's idea).
John Biffen died. David Cameron described him as "a thoughtful and principled politician". British public life lost a great man.
Ken Livingstone unleashed a round of attacks on Boris Johnson. First London's black communities were stirred up into some strong attacks on the Henley MP and then the left-wing Compass group attempted to portray him as Norman Tebbit in a clown's costume. None of this dented Tory support for Mr Johnson. 70% told ConservativeHome that they intend to vote for him in the primary contest.
ConservativeHome revealed that healthcare would begin David Cameron's fightback on his return from holiday. We then defended CCHQ after errors in a list of threatened hospitals caused excitement at the BBC.
The work-rate of frontbenchers became an issue because of an investigation by the FT's Jean Eaglesham. She discovered that frontbenchers held 115 outside interests. I set out my overall view on this issue here.
My highlight of the month was ConservativeHome's What David Cameron Should Do Next series. Matthew Parris, Ruth Lea and John O'Sullivan were amongst the A-list of contributors.
The opinion polls at the end of August sent out conflicting messages. YouGov gave Gordon Brown an 8% advantage, MORI a 5% lead and Populus put the parties just 1% apart. September will begin with the Tories publishing their public service policy group and it will also include controversial recommendations from John Gummer and Zac Goldsmith on green taxation. Cameron is likely to embrace the tax ideas but reject proposed limits on airport expansion. Douglas Alexander has said that no election will be called within the next seven days but noone can be sure if October's Tory Conference will even meet. There's a 50/50 chance that we might all be on the election trail by then.
Once he had overseen the Foot and Mouth scare, Gordon Brown was relatively quiet in August. He calculated, perhaps, that activity in August isn't widely noticed. He'll probably re-emerge this week with a series of significant interventions. The quality of those interventions and the opinion poll reactions to them will determine whether or not he goes to see the Queen and calls the much-discussed autumn election.
You reckon as much as a 50/50 chance Ed?
The betting markets certainly don't reflect that.
I'd say 3:1 at best.
Posted by: Peter Hatchet | September 02, 2007 at 17:35
Editor:
Apologies somewhat off topic but....
I've noticed that nobody has commented on the Eric Pickles coverage in the Sunday Express that you linked to. Is it old news?
As it is the Express I suppose that is not surprising. However, is there any corroborating information about these claims? I have taken a look at some online sources but can't seem to find anything.
Any information would be helpful.
John
Posted by: John Leonard | September 02, 2007 at 17:50
My view changes from day to day Peter but I do not believe that things will get any better for Brown. My new year prediction was that he would hold an election this year (here). This is his best chance of winning but he may decide he'd rather be PM for 1, 2 or 3 years.
Posted by: Editor | September 02, 2007 at 17:52
Douglas Alexander has said that no election will be called within the next seven days but noone can be sure if October's Tory Conference will even meet. There's a 50/50 chance that we might all be on the election trail by then.
I think a dissolution will be announced after the Budget in 2009 with the Local and General Election to be held on the same day as the General Election; however if Gordon Brown was to seek a dissolution this Autumn I imagine he would want it to come shortly after the Conservative Party conference to maximise a potential wrangle if those present were convinced that the Conservatives were going to lose heavily.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | September 02, 2007 at 18:06
People might want to take a look on Ben Brogan's blog. Apparently, Johan Eliasch has quit as Deputy Treasurer.
On a brighter note Ben reckons that the two polls due out tomorrow bare out the private poll earlier. The gap is closing...
Posted by: John Leonard | September 02, 2007 at 19:23
Tim, I think you (massively )overstate the division in the Tory party against Lord Ashcroft.
Those who have criticised him such as the Guardian and on this blog Traditional Tory wish our party nothing but harm.Most people on this blog and I believe within the party in general are very supportive of his work.
Posted by: malcolm | September 02, 2007 at 19:40
Perhaps malcolm, perhaps. I have nothing against Lord Ashcroft personally but I object - in principle - to one donor having such influence.
Posted by: Editor | September 02, 2007 at 19:42
I still don't understand what the problem with Ashcroft is supposed to be. I don't remember ConHome moaning about him when he was outside the party running a parallel campaign office in 2005 - did I miss that? The leader has the right to have whomsoever he wishes in Central Office. I'm afraid it really does look like Conservative Home in search of a headline. I had a look at Ben Brogan's blog, which also struck me as OTT. Good news - closing the gap in public voting intention - is supposedly offset by the resignation of someone from Central Office. Good grief.
Posted by: Graeme Archer, toying with flip-flops tonight as a more authentically Tory form of sandal. | September 02, 2007 at 20:49
Why "Heathrow" ? are there no other airports in the UK ?
As for Johan Eliasch he is described as a Swedish businessman does that describe his country of origin or his citizenship ?
Posted by: TomTom | September 03, 2007 at 06:55