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You reckon as much as a 50/50 chance Ed?

The betting markets certainly don't reflect that.

I'd say 3:1 at best.


Apologies somewhat off topic but....

I've noticed that nobody has commented on the Eric Pickles coverage in the Sunday Express that you linked to. Is it old news?

As it is the Express I suppose that is not surprising. However, is there any corroborating information about these claims? I have taken a look at some online sources but can't seem to find anything.

Any information would be helpful.


My view changes from day to day Peter but I do not believe that things will get any better for Brown. My new year prediction was that he would hold an election this year (here). This is his best chance of winning but he may decide he'd rather be PM for 1, 2 or 3 years.

Douglas Alexander has said that no election will be called within the next seven days but noone can be sure if October's Tory Conference will even meet. There's a 50/50 chance that we might all be on the election trail by then.
I think a dissolution will be announced after the Budget in 2009 with the Local and General Election to be held on the same day as the General Election; however if Gordon Brown was to seek a dissolution this Autumn I imagine he would want it to come shortly after the Conservative Party conference to maximise a potential wrangle if those present were convinced that the Conservatives were going to lose heavily.

People might want to take a look on Ben Brogan's blog. Apparently, Johan Eliasch has quit as Deputy Treasurer.

On a brighter note Ben reckons that the two polls due out tomorrow bare out the private poll earlier. The gap is closing...

Tim, I think you (massively )overstate the division in the Tory party against Lord Ashcroft.
Those who have criticised him such as the Guardian and on this blog Traditional Tory wish our party nothing but harm.Most people on this blog and I believe within the party in general are very supportive of his work.

Perhaps malcolm, perhaps. I have nothing against Lord Ashcroft personally but I object - in principle - to one donor having such influence.

I still don't understand what the problem with Ashcroft is supposed to be. I don't remember ConHome moaning about him when he was outside the party running a parallel campaign office in 2005 - did I miss that? The leader has the right to have whomsoever he wishes in Central Office. I'm afraid it really does look like Conservative Home in search of a headline. I had a look at Ben Brogan's blog, which also struck me as OTT. Good news - closing the gap in public voting intention - is supposedly offset by the resignation of someone from Central Office. Good grief.

Why "Heathrow" ? are there no other airports in the UK ?

As for Johan Eliasch he is described as a Swedish businessman does that describe his country of origin or his citizenship ?

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