Another 11% lead for Labour

According to another YouGov poll - for tomorrow's Telegraph - Gordon Brown is maintaining the 11% lead that he won in the immediate afterglow of his speech to Labour Conference.  Both major parties lose 1% to the LibDems compared to the YouGov/ Channel 4 survey.

Here are the other main poll findings:

• 45% say that Gordon Brown is most in touch with people’s concerns.  18% say the same of David Cameron.  60% think he is out of touch.
• 22% think David Cameron is proving to be a good leader.
• 55% thought that David Cameron is "lightweight" compared to Gordon Brown.
• 63% said that they don't know what the Conservative Party stands for.
• William Hague was the clear favourite to become Tory leader if David Cameron stepped down.
• 58% supported the view that Gordon Brown would win an autumn election but might lose it if he stepped down.

Comments

[Treacle]

Thanks to all concerned

Great effort

Destroyed the Party I love for a mess of focus groups and Guardian twaddle

Hang your bloody heads in shame....

[Ed Ramsay]

not relevant untill after the conference.

[Edison Smith]

To quote a line from a certain comedy - "Not bovvered."

Let's see where we are next week.

[Cleo]

Election to be announced next week, maybe during David Cameron's speech? It is make or break time next week, the party has to unite with a compassionate message that reaches beyond the core vote.

[Michael Davidson]

I doubt Hague would want to become leader again. Did it say who came second, third etc. in that question Editor?

[Peter Coe]

Sorry, what's the last bullet point mean - do you mean they think he'd step down if he lost it? Why would he be stepping down before the election? Huh? Am I being obtuse?

[Malcolm Dunn]

Not altogether suprising given that this poll was taken during a time of almost total Conservative silence about everything whilst Brown was dominating the media.
A desperate poll nonetheless and we need to have an extremely successful conference next week.

[Radical Tory]

This would give Labour a majority of 152 according to Electoral calculus. We would also lose some seats.

Before the Labour conference they were 6 points ahead, now they are 10-11 points ahead. Is it normal for a conference to give such an increase? Is there something else at work? If not I expect us to be at ahead after our conference. If we're not Cameron blew his best chance.

[Jack W]

The BBC is reporting a new Populus poll in the "Times" showing a 10% Labour lead.

[Blue Ches]

apparently the times are carrying another poll showing a 10% Labour lead.I'm sure this will shrink a bit during the Tory conference but not by enough to stop Brown going to the country.Anyone have any ideas what can be done to turn the tide? I suppose tax cuts are out of the question?

[Cleo]

Populus for the Times has a 10% Labour lead.

[Steve]

Are we actually supposed to believe this crap?.

[Wat Tyler]

Gulp!

[Yorkshire Tory]

Well, it could have been better, I'll give you that!

[Miss Tooty]

You all may just win if you ditch Dave now.But alas you won't.

[david]

Wot no comments!!

Its not so bad in the Times populus are saying its only a Labour lead of 10%.

[Teck]

This is just so monotonous it could be even be a "fruit machine" regurgitation. Is it likely that roughly the same respondents are being polled again, a self-selected cohort?

Unless the polling techniques are transparent, geographically and demographically representative, I am not sure if the results of these polls might have an adverse effect by subliminally influencing voters who are led by herd mentality.

[Ian redwood]

If Cameron's speech next week does not cut this lead in half we may as well turn off the lights and go home. Last week you refused to publish me plea for someone to start planning for defeat as well as victory - I would like to repeat it again this week and hope you realise it is not made in malice.

[Raj]

This may push Brown into holding an Autumn election, even if he has doubts. Though even the worst Tory conferences after 1997 gave them a poll boost so I'd be surprised if some of this isn't clawed back.

But an Autumn election... Hmm, are Labour voters as likely to vote as Tory ones in the poor weather?

[Iain]

Polls bounce around all over the place during conference season. I'm old enough to remember 1986, when the Tories went into their conference in 3rd place behind Labour and the Alliance. A cracking conference for us turned things around and proved to be the springboard for our 1987 success. Blackpool can do the same this time and, if we have a good conference, Brown will not dare call an early poll. He's "frit".

[john]

Yaaaaaawwwwnnnn!
Please, no boring, predictable posts about "useless" Cameron until after the Tory Conference.
Those who do weigh in, might ponder, as they remove their blazers and plonk their ample arses before the screen, that Cameron is working all hours God sends to get us back into power.
So what have you done today to advance the cause?

[TomTom]

the party has to unite with a compassionate message that reaches beyond the core vote.

Posted by: Cleo | September 28, 2007 at 22:07

“It's Miller time!”

"You'll wonder where the yellow went when you brush your teeth with Pepsodent."

"For mash, get Smash."

"The car in front is a Toyota."

"Where's the beef?"

You write advertising copy Cleo, at least it reads that way when you post....and that is the problem for voters....they know that insincerity reeks

[Dale]

'Cameron is working all hours God sends to get us back into power.'

Then where is he?

[Ben Surtees]

Hardly a heartening poll, nor is it worth getting excited about - its worth remembering that this is a post conference poll for Labour, not only have Labour had the saturation and largely positive coverage from their jamboree in Bournemouth but even that was against a back drop of over two weeks in which they had succeeded in commanding the media spot-light (With outselves totally marginalised since early september).

Finally its also worth remembering that even IDS and Howard gained decent poll boosts from their conferences, and in the past so has DC indeed (without tempting fate) conference usually plays to DC's talents and so I'd think we should see some positive movement this time next week (but its potentially a long time for some to wait).

[Treacle]

"Those who do weigh in, might ponder, as they remove their blazers and plonk their ample arses before the screen, that Cameron is working all hours God sends to get us back into power."

1 He's clearly not, neither are his team

2. Your easy assumption that those who point out the screaming obvious are elderly Colonels is arrogant, tedious and stupid.

3. I am sure the polls will narrow, but we shouldn't be in this total mess in the first place, Cameron's Conservative's indeed.

[Richard A]

The blame-storming has already started. Looks like it's nearly time for the next failed leader.

[Sally Roberts]

I think this may well prompt Brown to fire the starting gun but he may live to regret the decision! The Conference will provide a wonderful launch platform for any campaign we may find ourselves in!

[ceidwadwyr]

Bring it on Gordon - if you've got the bottle.

These polls are all over the place and cant be trusted. I think we'll make gains against the libs and the labs - but not enough to form a government. Maybe Guidos got it right - tories to be the biggest party.

[M Dowding]

I am astounded at this verbiage doing exactly what The Stalinists want. Dissent brought about by media/govenrment propaganda dressed up as opinion polls. So the actual election results last week take second place to Populus and YouGov? I think not. We are as one in hating what this Labour Government has and continues to do to create a bankrupt one party state. Stop bickering, fight and win back our Country!

[Yet Another Anon]

58% supported the view that Gordon Brown would win an autumn election but might lose it if he stepped down
Given that this is on a different line in a different bulleted sentence it reads as if Gordon Brown steps down, when I take it it means if David Cameron steps down.

I can't see David Cameron standing down at this point, I am sure he would fight any attempts to remove him, William Hague has been quite emphatic that he does not want to be party leader. If David Cameron were to go now then I imagine David Davis would be the favourite although Liam Fox would I am sure be a strong contender, maybe IDS could re-emerge as a possible candidate. It is possible that a candidacy by John Redwood or Edward Leigh would be encouraged because if they lost heavily as many supposed it would probably finish them and if they won then the Conservatives would be back in power - from the perspectives of many of their supporters and many of their opponents it would resolve a lot.

[Yet Another Anon]

I suppose tax cuts are out of the question?
The Liberal Democrats are pledged to cut the Basic Rate of Income Tax by 4p, this could work in their favour during the campaign.

Polls bounce around all over the place during conference season. I'm old enough to remember 1986, when the Tories went into their conference in 3rd place behind Labour and the Alliance.
Although the similarity is that the Conservatives in 1985/86 as in 1980/81 had run into mid-term difficulties, they came out of both mid-term difficulties quite rapidly. I suspect that Labour has not fully come out of mid-term difficulties and that people are more saying what they think is considered acceptable to say, and that actually in an election this Autumn, the Liberal Democrats would probably end up with about the same number of seats as before and Labour might well lose it's majority and could end up continuing as a minority government. People would feel that the General Election was too soon and suspect Gordon Brown's motives for going now.

[abctory]

Be interesting to know where they find these people, I think the polls aren't so much a positive endorsement for Gordon, but more a reflection of electors still being unsure about 1) what our policies will be 2) whether we have a team capable of carrying it out 3) whether we are willing to listen to the electors as well as tell them what we think the solutions are, or whether we are just the same as GB, therefore no point in voting for change, cause it won't make any difference.

Unfortunally there are many people within the party who have very strident, 'we know best' ideas about policy, who are very very removed from the hum drum of reality for majority of people in this country.

United and positive we can succeed, divided and negative we will fail.

[Warren]

The post by M Dowding perhaps illustrates why the Conservatives are where they are:

1) a belief that even after 20 years of reform and change under Kinnock/Blair/Brown and New Labour, there is still some kind of Stalinist/Communist government occupying No 10.

2) a belief that the polls - and by association the people expressing their views through them - are wrong and it is them who should change and not the Conservatives. Or that it is all a conspiracy against the Tories by the "liberal media" (like the Telegraph?!)

3) that somehow Britain is "our country" for Conservative-minded people only and that people in the Labour Party are somehow alien and not part of Britain.

If there is too much of this on show in Blackpool this week is it any surprise the public don't identify with the party?
Whatever our political disagreements we are not all Scots or Trots and do care about this country and it's people.

[Northernhousewife]

I may be clutching at straws but is the 948 Populus sample smaller than the norm? Is 948 a misprint? What was the YouGov sample?
The YouGov poll after Brown's speech was about 1300 and I understood that was on the small side?
You can bet Brown will do his best to blot out any coverage of D.C. next week to keep his poll rating up but can he sustain it over the course of an election campaign? At this rate, most of the floating voters who seem to change their mind on a whim will be bored of the coverage before it has even begun.

[Frank McGarry]

We have been waiting 22 months for David Cameron to tell us what he wants to be Prime Minister for. The electorate have been waiting 22 months to be given a solid reason to vote for a Conservative government.

Will all be revealed next week?
Will David suddenly become a Conservative?
Will he suddenly become a Leader?

I wish.

[Radical Tory]

ENOUGH 'CHANGE THE LEADER' MONOTONY.

[Ted]

Ipsos Mori in tomorrows Observer
Labour 41%
Conservative 34%
Lib Dem 16%

Lab -1%, Cons unchanged, LDs up 2%. Lead 7%.

[Jack W]

New MORI poll for the "Observer"

Con 34% uc .. Lab 41% -1 .. LibDem 16% +2 .. Others 9% -1.

[Groundhog Day]

Good to see the "Usual Supects" are still burying their heads in the sand. Cameroons to the death!

Dave and his "all style, no substance" crew are driving us to electoral oblivion...

There are huge challenges ahead for the party - watch the rats jump of the ship and straight back into well paid jobs in the City...

Whatever happened to the Conservative Party? - this will be my last post. I have nothing positive to say about Dave - so I will watch and hope that we can rise from the ashes after the election...

When the chaps slope back to Notting Hill with their tails between their legs...

Absolute bloody disgrace....

[Groundhog Day]

Dave and his Notting Hill chums have destroyed this party. They are so out of touch with the country, it is joke...

All the polls can't be wrong...same fawning Cameroons, same old excuses, lets bury our heads in the sand...

Absolute bloody disgrace...

[MrB]

Even if Cameron loses the next election he will stay as leader. No one credible would stand against him.