YouGov gives Labour a 10% lead

A YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times puts Labour on 42%; 10% ahead of the Conservatives.  The LibDems are down to 14%.

Another poll - ICM for The Sunday Mirror - is a little better for the Tories.  Labour is on 39%; 6% ahead of the Conservatives on 33% with the LibDems on 18%.

1am update: The Sunday Times' survey is now online.  Some key findings:

• 65% think Brown is doing well as Prime Minister; 17% badly.
• 36% think Brown has performed better than expected; 5% think he has performed worse.
• 51% think David Cameron would do badly if he became PM; 27% think he'll do well.

Comments

[John Ionides]

Oh to be a young buck! That really would be Groundhog Day.

I very much doubt that anyone on this board would object to constructive criticism of Cameron (or anyone else for that matter). I certainly don't spend my days trying to catch sunbeams from Dave's backside, but neither do I think it is constructive to rant aimlessly about Cameron's failures unless you are being funded by NuLab or are an ancient commie - the kind of guy who thought that uncle Joe was quite a nice chap really.

[christina]

Most readers will know that I feel strongly that the Newspapers, in search of a sensation, misrepresent what is happening in the political world by omitting what I call the "dustbin area" (the Won't Votes - the Refuse to Says - and most importantly the Don't Knows). I still hold to this view but in future I will take more care in reading the very small print from the actual tables

In commenting on the oversensationalised Sunday Times report of the impeccable YouGov report I misread one figure. I misread the "Will not vote" figure as 16 instead of the correct 10. This affected ALL the other figures in my report. Since my report used the wrong figure the conclusions I drew were also wrong and I apologise sincerely for having misled readers.

The corrected tables adjusted to include the "dustbin area" read as follows - - -

Lab 32% + 1%
Con 24% n/c
LibDem 11% -1%
Others 9% +1%
Will not vote 10% +1%
Don't know 14% -2%

Political Conclusions ? Largely that there was very little movement at all in this poll compared to the previous month . The Tories were static and any other changes were well within the margins of statistical error. The Sunday Times (and the rest of the press that picked it up) were being grossly sensational

nb Following to the methodology used the YouGov polls do not offer a "Refuse to say" preference so this must be born in mind.

All my other comments on other polls stand but I REGRET VERY MUCH HAVING MADE THIS CARELESS SLIP

[Jamie]

hehe, this is rather fun watching you lot self-destruct... although I have a strange feeling of deja-vu!

Bring on the election and let's wipe you Tories out once and for all :-)

[steve]

Thanks for you constructive comment Groundhog Day. I'm 39, does that count as a young buck to you? Perhaps it does. It does sound like you are having a lot of difficulty adapting to the modern world doesn't it?

[Traditional Tory]

As I have said before, TT, you don't seem to get out much anymore. An awareness of the value of the environment and the need to look after it runs deep in the vast majority of the activists and members I know.

You really are living in cloud-cuckoo land, aren't you Mr Ionides? Shame the facts don't always fit your fantasy.

Certainly Conservatives are keen on preserving the countryside, especially when they live in it, but the 'Greenpeace' style causes do not generally appeal.

How long have you belonged to the party and do you know how old the average member is?

Judging from the waffle above, the answer to the second question is plainly 'no'.