Labour lead down to 5% before social breakdown crisis

An ICM poll for today's Guardian puts Labour 5% ahead.  Labour's lead is down 1% on a fortnight ago but the overall ratings of the parties are very stable.  Most importantly, most of the fieldwork (22nd and 23rd August) was completed before the Liverpool shooting and the Conservative Party's sure-footed response to that tragic event.  The last few days have seen the Conservative Party acting as a united and effective team with David Davis, Iain Duncan Smith, Nick Herbert, Michael Howard and David Cameron himself all playing vital and impressive roles.

The Guardian has also compiled the results of all ICM surveys taken since Gordon Brown entered 10 Downing Street to analyse north-south voting patterns of 5,039 in total. Here are the Guardian's main conclusions when comparing the numbers now to the 2005 General Election campaign:

• Labour's average vote in Scotland and Wales has fallen by seven points, from 43% to 36%.
• In London Labour support is six points up; in the south-east and south-west it is one point up; and in the north, the engine-room of Labour's parliamentary majority, it has risen by two points.
• In the south-east outside London and the south-west the Conservatives have advanced massively in the past two years, up from 39% to an average of 48%.
• Cameron's weakness is in the north, where Conservative support actually appears to have fallen, from 28% to 26%.

Comments

[Richard North]

That Cameron's support should have fallen in the North surprises me not.

[Traditional Tory]

Talk about spin. Brown is only down one point (which actually means nothing at all) but of course the 'sure footed response to...' blah! blah! blah!

It's so typical of people who are deeply embroiled in politics to assume that the Great British Pubic avidly follow such matters. In fact vast numbers of them never read a newspaper or watch the TV news.

While it is possible that a majority may know that an 11 year old was shot in Liverpool, very few will be aware that the Conservatives have said anything at all.

However, those who actually do take an interest in such matters are intelligent enough to know that Brown is no more responsible for the death of Rhys Jones than Major was responsible for the murder of Jamie Bulger in 1993.

Society has changed very much for the worst and politicians of all parties are responsible to the extent that they have either encouraged or failed to oppose these trends. In some cases they hve been motivated by the omnipresent social Marxism of our age. In most cases the cause has been sheer cowardice.

Cameron and his modernisers are no exceptions. In desperation they have recently - and hypocritically - jumped onto the 'Broken Society' bandwagon, but that was not their original line. Remember how we had to let sunshine into our lives and celebrate Modern (ie Blair's) Britain?

Some may already have forgotten that BS. I will never forget, and never forgive.

[david]

Gun crime is the Tories big hope, if this does not damage Brown, what will? The rise in Labour support in London, is this because Londoners feel insulted by the fact the Tories can't produce a single decent candidate for London Mayor? Doesn't say much for Boris and co. does it!

[James Maskell]

The slight increase in Tory support isnt a thing to be too excited about. The support came from dont knows. Given Camerons past comments and how much the hug a hoodie line has stuck Im not entirely sure that the recent crime problems will have helped us.

[malcolm]

Still disappointing but I agree with the Editors premise that the last few days has seen a revival in positive media coverage for the Conservative party.The Sunday Times leaders yesterday were excellent.Let's hope that this will be reflected in the forthcoming raft of polls.

[Jennifer Wells]

I strongly believe that the gun crisis will have damaged Brown. This poll because it was taken before the last few days doesn't tell us much. The lack of progress in the north is disturbing though.

[Ben Surtees]

First off – Mark you’ve clearly not actually read the poll (I made a point of picking up the Guardian this morning so I could actually see the details of the poll), Labour has risen in London at the expense of the LibDems (+7 IIRC), however the Conservatives have also risen (+2 IIRC) – what the implications of this would be in a general election is less clear, but the primary inference seems to be the disillusioned Labour voters who switched to the LibDems have returned to Labour with Blair gone – hardly surprising. And the poll was conducted before DC’s “Anarchy in the UK” speech and before the murder in Liverpool… so gun crime is unlikely have had as big an impact as it could do.

More generally, the poll is “ok”… the voting intention figures while uninspiring suggest the “rot” has been stopped and (together with the way the poll has been covered) that the Brown “honeymoon” is being stemmed somewhat, although it’s worth remembering that we’re still firmly in (going by historical precedents) “honeymoon” territory.

The most encouraging thing in this poll are the issue by issue ratings… to be leading on crime (pre-Thursday) and Health while close behind Labour on the economy is all very encouraging IMHO, especially when you consider that in the immediate aftermath of the Brown coronation Labour ratcheted up big leads on all these issues.

Again, we’re still deep in “honeymoon” territory… so to see are recovery in how we are rated on key issues is good and at this stage perhaps more instructive than the overall voting intention figures (those figures still be distorted – to a certain extent – by the “honeymoon” period Brown’s enjoying still).

[Sean of the Living]

Tim, Cameron and the Tories have become zombie like - feeding on the dead bodies of the victims of gun crime in order to boost their electoral chances. "Social Breakdown Crisis" - God help us.

[Sean of the Living]

By the way - The Guardian figures show Labour on +1.

[Andrew Woodman]

What will be interesting is how the Lib Dems intend to react to all this. At the moment they have no identity so do they go more to the left to win back the London voters going to Labour or more to the right to get the voters going our way in the South West.

The figures in the North are disappoinitng. Maybe the emphasis on crime might help with that. Does anyone know how we polled in the North (and what people are classing at the North), in the days when we used to win elections?

[Editor]

Sean of the Living: "By the way - The Guardian figures show Labour on +1."

The Guardian compares its poll with the last ICM poll for itself (a month ago). I compare this ICM poll with the most recent ICM survey for any newspaper (which was for The Sunday Mirror two weeks ago). I hope that clarifies things.

[Ted]

Sean of the Living - rubbish. Since Cameron became leader he has been talking, speechifying about the Broken Society. IDS's report, the so called Hug a Hoodie speech all addressed the destruction of communities in our urban centres.
It's Labour that has played crime as an electoral game - useless initiatives, pretend "We're Hard We Are" laws that are not used, don't achieve anything, complacent.

[James Cullis]

raditional tory are you a BNP suporter?

[Yet Another Anon]

While it is possible that a majority may know that an 11 year old was shot in Liverpool, very few will be aware that the Conservatives have said anything at all.
People who think that crime problems are social in nature will probably go on thinking that, and those who feel it is liberal policies by both main parties over decades will go on thinking that and people in twee little villages somewhere where there are few problems will go on believing it is all media hype and most of these people from all different mindsets will expect little but rhetoric on it from the main political parties because that mostly is what there has been over the decades.

The first thing is the cry that something must be done and that it must never happen again, then various MPs announce that it is one thing or another that should be done, then the opposition (whoever that is) say it is all the fault of the party opposite and that they would do things all differently, then the government announce some changes sometimes in agreement with the main opposition parties, then it turns out to be far less than expected and then it happens all over again and whoever is then the government does the same as before.

And the truth is that there is political inertia on matters of Crime & Punishment, but that to say that such things must never happen again is unrealistic because however strict rules are and however diiligent the implementation, on most things it will always happen again at some point in the future because human beings are not infallible - infallibility is the prerogative of God alone.

[Sean of the Living]

Ted, two things get on my nerves here:

1) The Tories started the destruction of these communities in the 1980s.
2) Society is not in crisis - some areas have problems.

[Editor]

No, James. Traditional Tory has said on a number of occasions that he is not and I don't think there is evidence for believing he is. Back to the thread please.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Tories started the destruction of these communities in the 1980s
The recent shooting highlighted in the press actually occurred in a prosperous part of Liverpool, shootings and knifings are more common that they used to be, but contrary to press reports they didn't start in the last few years - gun crime including in this country is as old as the gun and knife crime is as old as the knife.

Increased societal problems with violence are down to a combination of liberal social policies, life is more complicated and disorientating with people expected to be constantly in communication - most manufacturing and labouring jobs have gone and people are expected to adapt to a Politically Correct culture - men are made to feel guilty for wanting to be self reliant and told that they should have a feminine side and this undermines their own sense of who they are and what their purpose is in life.

[Sean of the Living]

YAA

I bet the killer came from the sink estate next door.

[Pollster]

The differences in the ICM poll figures are not significant and can be attributed to sampling error.

These figures are consistent with recent polls and are dreadful news for CCHQ. The regional differences will be celebrated in Downing Street.

The increase in support in the South East will deliver only a handful of marginal seats in Kent and Essex.

Labour hold on to several marginals and gain a couple of seats in the Bristol and Somerset areas. Labour could regain Selby & Ainstey (a Tory seat after boundary changes) and Scarborough & Whitby.

The six point drop in London could cost us Ilford North, Wimbledon, Putney and Finchley. If this is "Boris" effect, I don't want it.

The only positive news is that Tory losses to Labour will be balanced by gains from the Lib Dems (who would also lose many seats to Labour).

Overall, Brown would increase his majority, even with losses to the SNP. Prepare for an October election.

[Oberon Houston]

Its still too early to draw conclusions from this. Next month will be more interesting I think.

[James Cullis]

the point is that trad's criticisms our unhelpful so why is he reading a suposed 'liberal' site, onother point i do agree that the goverments gun policy is based soley on a 'Social aproach to crime , this is outyrages DC has takea great step aaaaani do agree withy D'ancona in yesterdays Telegraph, but i think we should concetrate on a to0ugherstan on L & O anot just blame it on socity

[Ben Surtees]

Pollster - based on this poll (and you should take the regional break downs with a huge fist full of salt), Brown could increase his majoirty (just) through gains at our expense in the North, however Labour would lose seats to us in the South and East, while the LibDems would lose a swath of seats to us in the south east and south west... the increase in Labour's share of the vote in London is all at the LibDem's expense while the Conservative share is up slightly (suggesting Labour's strangle-hold on seats like Islington, Brent etc... will be reaserted, but will have less of an impact in the Labour/Tory marginals)... overall its an uninspring poll, but your reading of it is misjudged IMHO.

[John Leonard]

Much as I find the debate entertaining I do think it is rather spurious because the Guardian has ignored what is probably the key battleground.

It does not even mention the Midlands and in the previous ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror the figures were finely balanced at

Lab 42%
Con 40%

The Libdems strangely, considering the other figures, were down at 11%.

The figures for the North and South back up the Guardians assessment.

Now I can only wonder why the Guardian decided to ignore the Midlands (although the word spin comes to mind) but either way I will not make any judgements on this poll until I see the detail.

[TomTom]

Does anyone know how we polled in the North (and what people are classing at the North), in the days when we used to win elections?

Classing ?

Is that Newspeak ?

[michael m]

I only hope that at long last, all the front bench and every Conservative in the parliamentary party will now come out fighting to support DC and show that they want to win.
It has been shameful that we have seen so little Conservative reaction to what have been so many open goals in recent weeks-it does seem that many of them prefer board room fees to a government salary. This is really a terrible betrayal of supporters, members and the country who deserve far better than the lot we have now

The party in the country do not particularly like Kenneth Clarke, but the country does- yet nothing whatsover has been heard from him for weeks.

The news that Lord A has taken charge is very welcome- at least he wants to win and is determined to achieve it.

[Tony Makara]

Once Gordon Browns bounce melts away he will never get it back again. The non-political public were glad to see the back of Blair and that translated into transient support for Brown, however now its becoming obvious, even to those who don't follow politics, that the more things change the more they stay the same. Gordon Brown is afraid of public reaction to consequences of social breakdown, thats why he gave a TV news statement in his office after the shooting of the 11 year old boy in Liverpool.

[Pollster]

Ben Surtees, you seem to agree with most of my comments except in London.

There are only a few Labour seats in the South East now - mainly in Kent and Essex. The Labour vote in Kent is very loyal. We failed to win several marginals with small Labour majorities in 2005. Boundary changes will help but winning them back not be easy as the Labour MPs have substantial personal votes.

The Lib Dem vote is holding up well (better than national pools) in South and West London, i.e. where there are Lib Dem MPs and councils. We can win Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton and Richmond Park but you can forget the others.

Stephen Hammond's seat in Wimbledon is now seriously at risk. The Lib Dem vote increased by 5%, at Labour's expense, in 2005 and got him in. There was a similar but smaller effect in Putney. Both seats are highly vulnerable to a significant Lib Dem to Labour swing.

Overall, on these figures, I would anticipate a Labour majority of between 80 and 120. If pressed, I would tend to favour a higher figure because we have so many inexperienced A listers fighting target seats.

[John Leonard]

Before everyone gets too excited by the Guardian report I suggest they look at the analysis here:

UK Polling Report Analysis of The Guardian Poll

It suggests that even in this circumstance the Conservatives could have a net gain in seats at the next GE based on the regional figures.

Of course the analysis points out many caveats to the accuracy of the Guardian piece.

[Sean Fear]

Pollster, there are many more Labour held marginals in the South than there are Conservative held marginals in the North. Hence, if the Conservatives do better than average in the South, and worse than average in the South, then they will pick up more seats than under UNS.

Anthony Wells gives Labour 368 seats to 210 Conservatives on a 5% lead, with uniform national swing. But, if the regional swings shown by the Guardian were to be replicated, the figures would be more like 356 to 222.

[Sean Fear]

"Worse than average in the North", I should have said

[Mountjoy]

Well, so much for the Brown Bounce ... let's see it slipping further in the next few polls.

The north is a tricky one; I've lived there and I've campaigned there so I know that it's not easy ground. I initially disagreed with my namesake Jonathan Scott (Conservative Vision)’s excellent article on the North, but re-reading it today I think he is broadly correct in what he says. Can I suggest you ask him to follow up this article with another, as some progress - e.g. the Northern Board - has been made since then?

[Pollster]

Sean, how do you explain the poor Conservative performance in the South at the last election. We failed to win key marginals from Labour and the Lib Dems in Kent, Sussex, Hampshire and Dorset. It suggests that there were/are major problems with the party's campaigning expertise or candidates in those areas.

[MH]

As someone who lives in an uber safe Conservative seat, all I see around me are disillusioned Conservatives. I have never liked Dave, but the depth of disillusionment is stunning. Frankly, if there is not a majority Labour government (which I don't want at all), I'll be stunned.

[Jake]

"Cameron's weakness is in the north, where "Conservative support actually appears to have fallen, from 28% to 26%. "

North of where ?

This phrase is a large part of the key to the problem . The sooner the Conservatives start to adress the reality of the modern British state , the sooner we will gain traction .

Stop talking about Britain . The use of the word is a cop out from reality . Great Britain has largely disintegrated into its component nations . Talk about England and in this case the North of England .

Make it clear that the Conservatives are the champions of England in what remains of the British state .
The North of England is very much aware of being part of England and also very much aware that , at present ,there is no political party which specifically represents them .

Try connecting on this basis - you might be pleasently surprised at the results .

[Ben Surtees]

Pollster -

If this poll were born out nationally I'd probably agree that we'd see a large Labour majority (IMHO in the 65-95 range), but our machine in the target seats is better than i think you believe although i think there could be big variations between these seats based on how effective A-listers turnout to be (though the fact remains that the majority of "A listers" are on the list in the first place at least partly coz they are, or would be expected to be, effective campaigners).

Also agree that even with a massive swing against the LibDems across the South they'll still defy the national trend in seats where their MPs are well entrenched... however i wouldn't expect that to spare them the loss of seats like Chippenham, Romsey etc...

Either way, i think we probably agree about what the ramifications of these kind of vote shares would be more than my first reply suggested... either way beyond the headlines figures I'm fairly content with the poll considering when it was conducted (leads on health, crime, a narrowing of the gap on the economy and squeezing he LibDems in the South are some positives to mix with the less exciting elements of the poll IMHO).

[banboris]

I spoke to a group of well-off City lawyers yesterday, they all said they were voting for Boris for mayor - Just for the laugh! Voting is becoming a joke. Maybe this is the way western Democracy will mature. It is after all less than 100 years old in this country.

[Sean Fear]

"Sean, how do you explain the poor Conservative performance in the South at the last election."

What poor performance? We made most of our gains in the South, and cut Labour and Lib Dem majorities sharply in many Southern marginals.

[601]

William Hague MP has to many jobs to campaign for the Tories "in the north". Your only MP in West Yorkshire should be made head of the nothern board. I think his name is Phillip Davies MP. He may have only been elected recently but he speaks so much sense.

[601]

Also does having a shadow minister for cities actually help. I can't see it does, especially since the shadow minister for Liverpool is a Surrey MP! One of the wealthist area of Britain.

[Medway/Rochester & Strood Constituent]

Talking of missed South-East marginals, the Tories missed an open goal here last election. Virtually everyone here was/is sick of Bob Marshall-Andrews and his big mouth, and it's only because Mark Reckless is considered to be even more of a prat (as if that's even possible!) that we lost.

Did I mention that I never got a single canvasser to knock on our door that election? I live in a safe Tory ward, but even so, if they can't be bothered to come round and listen to my views, I can't be bothered to walk down the polling station to put my 'X' in the box.

[Bradford]

I think his name is Phillip Davies MP. He may have only been elected recently but he speaks so much sense.

That is very true. He is an excellent MP - really superb, but he is a David Davis man and I doubt Cameron will let the point Davis made during the leadership election about rebuilding the North be made so evident to the party 20 months later

[NorthernTory]

We must also remember that the 'North' is a very unclear description. For example, rural northern areas do not mirror urban northern areas. I suspect that the north these polls speak of are the West Yorkshire/Lancashire urban marginals which is very worrying indeed.

More rural marginals will surely respond in a similar way to rural seats elsewhere.

[TomTom]

North Yorkshire is rural and a bit light on population - West Yorkshire is the biggest part of Yorkshire's population and with the big industrial cities whereas South Yorkshire has mainly Sheffield.

The funny thing is that the Conservatives have never made much of an issue that Yorkshire gets about the average UK per capita public spending despite having deprivation and thenic ghettoes.

It has the lowest spend on transport. It has horrible congestion especially M62 and Leeds M1 intersections.

It has received little extra support unlike Mansfield, Barnsley etc.....in fact the Labour MPs have had a negative impactin terms of getting funding for the region.

West Yorkshire has the 3rd or 4th largest police force in the country but is underfunded even though it is supposed to monitor terrorist centres in West Yorkshire and airports while it has a £17 million shortfall in budgets and an inability to provide basic policing.

Yet not one peep out of Conservative Frontbenchers. Philip Davies knows his brief - he spent his recess patrolling with the police to learn the problems.

The Conservative Party seems very uninterested in Yorkshire where it could highlight just how much Labour Mps have cost people in these areas caught between the high public spending Livingstone gets in London and the huge sums available for Alex Salmond....yet the pitiful mite available for Northerners represented by Labour MPs.

[Ben Surtees]

Medway/Rochester & Strood Constituent - Not a matter of local Conservatives "not being bothered" rather its a matter of not having sufficient boots on the ground to canvass every single house (a very time consuming activity indeed) in a constituency, while at the same time getting out all the literature, blitzing, manning street stalls, tele canvasing, sorting the poster/stake campaign etc... I strongly doubt that the local Tories "couldn't be bothered", although i would hope if you did live in a safe ward you'd have had some contact with your local Conservative councillors at some point over the last few months and years, but as i say getting a full spread through doorstep canvasing is very tough to do in the space of four weeks (although I'm a great believer in it!- i think a local party should be doing that sort of thing and leafleting throughout the year, in safe, marginal and down right hopeless wards).

[Mountjoy]

Excellent point from 601 and Bradford regarding Philip Davies MP. In only two years in the House of Commons he has been outstanding, and he has been very convincing as a member of the Better Off Out campaign.

[Pollster]

Sean, I refer to the failure to capture marginal seats in Kent - Gillingham, Dartford etc - where Labour was defending small majorities. The results in Hampshire (e.g. Eastleigh and Romsey) and Dorset were poor too. Most of those seats had large Tory majorities even under Major.

[Mountjoy]

Sean, Pollster, Ben: and yet there was the spectacular gain in Gravesham in Kent (Lab majority was 4,862), a 6.3% swing, which is reputed to be because of brilliant local campaigning by Adam Holloway MP and his campaign team. Yet no joy in other Kent seats.

[Traditional Tory]

Once Gordon Browns bounce melts away he will never get it back again.

Er...isn't it likely that exactly the same applies to Cameron?

Hope springs eternal. No wonder Cameron is always 'banging on' (to use his favourite expression) about optimism.

[Traditional Tory]

James Cullis - Traditional tory are you a BNP suporter?

While I thank the Editor for his intervention I'm curious to know what I have written that leads Mr Cullis to make such a supposition.

[CCTV]

While I thank the Editor for his intervention I'm curious to know what I have written that leads Mr Cullis to make such a supposition.

He's looking for a friend and fellow-traveller

[Tony Makara]

The Conservative party must stay 'In the headlines' as much as possible. This really does pay off. The party must set up a team to vigorously chase up every significant item of news and have relevant quotes and interviews from party spokemen ready for issue to the media. The last week has seen excellent 'Presence' from David Cameron and others. This momentum must be maintained and not allowed to lapse.

[Chaucer]

Kent's a varied county where there aren't simple answers.

Labour do well at hanging on to their Kent enclaves because in these areas the benefits culture is often deeply rooted.

However, drive down the road a couple of miles - say from Dover (Lab) constituency into Canterbury (Con) - and you head straight into some of the most Thatcherite areas in the country where tax cuts are still the No.1 vote winner by a long stretch.

[Edison Smith]

Talking of Kent & Sussex:

I feel Cameron's emphasis on the "broken society" is a real vote winner in places like Hastings & Rye and perhaps the Brighton constituencies where general antisocial behaviour and crime is THE issue, as well as the decaying 'seen-better-days' of the seafronts and town centres.

I was in Hastings the other day for the first time in years. What a mess.

[Tony Makara]

Edison, you make an excellent point. The 'Broken Society' issue is one that every person can relate to, one that stirs the mind of every person every single day as they pass acts of vandalism and see rampant low-level criminality. David Cameron has found the nations pulse with this issue.

[Edison Smith]

If we take Hastings & Rye as an example:

Labour have a majority of 4.7% over the Tories. There was a 2.9% swing from Cons to Lab in 2005.

The main issue here is crime, which it seems Cameron will centre a lot of his manifesto upon.

Therefore, if the Tores fail to take Hastings in an election - whether it be October 2007 or May 2010 - it will not be a good sign.

[Edison Smith]

Sorry, that should be swing from Labs to Cons.

[Tony Makara]

Edison, the turnout is going to be a huge factor. Labour won last time with the support of only 22% of those eligible to vote. I can't see Labour adding to that, they will lose votes to Conservatives and Liberals, I can't see votes going the opposite way. So turnout is going to be a deciding factor.

If I remember correctly 2005 had a 61% turnout, so what will happen if another 10% or 15% turnout for the first post-Blair election? This is all very interesting.

From speaking to Labour supporters I get the impression that they feel the Labour government has run its course and needs some time in oposition to redefine its raison d'etre.

[Edison Smith]

I think Labour support has reached its zenith in the south and that increased turnout you speak of Tony will be previously apathetic centre-right voters who've had it okay economically over the past 10 years but who are now feeling the squeeze. They have a credible alternative now that the Conservatives are emerging out of their wilderness years.

They are concerned about 'Breakdown Britain' and their local A&Es: two things Cameron has been big on.

Voting Conservative is no longer something to be shy about or to be done through gritted teeth; it is actually a positive statement to make about oneself again.

Don't underestimate this little nuance in having an effect in places like Brighton Pavilion, Hastings & Rye, Gillingham and Crawley.

[John Waine]

"Brown is no more responsible for the death of Rhys Jones than Major was responsible for the murder of Jamie Bulger in 1993"

Up to a point ... but there can be no doubt at all that a huge chunk of collective responsibility may be laid, justifiably, at the doors of the "liberal, left-leaning" elements of our increasingly-PC society. And, while some of us might like to see less "touchy-feely" hand-wringing and pussy-footing about within the Tory ranks, it is, nonetheless, true that the Conservative Party has usually taken a more common-sense approach to crime & punishment (the last Home Secretary to preside over a significant decrease in serious crime was Michael Howard).

Therefore, as the most senior and prominent Left-wing politician in Britain, not to mention his culpability in denying funding for more prisons, Gordon Brown IS responsible for helping to create the political and moral climate within which such crimes can flourish.

Traditional Tory may view DC & Co in the same light; that's his/her prerogative. For my part (and I write as one who hasn't been DC's greatest fan), I welcome the Leader's tougher stance.

[Philip]

Would a tough law & order message help build support in the north, especially after recent events? Talking about the broken society and the policy of supporting marriage must help connect with voters' concerns, but we also need a tough message on crime: police on the streets and able to impose order, punishments that deter, ‘zero-tolerance’ policing and so on. As regards that latter, it must be very encouraging and a good sign that DC is meeting Mr Giuliani.

[Tony Makara]

Edison, Yes, good points you make. I think the great thing about David Cameron is that he appeals exactly those people we need to win over. Victory at the next election will involve winning votes from Labour voters. Hence the importance of staying in the mainstream centre ground. The Conservative team looks fresh and proactive. Labour by contrast look stale and devoid of ideas.

What I'm particularly looking forward to is seeing how stodgy Gordon Brown is going to look against the Dynamic David Cameron over a high-profile three week election campaign. David's great skill is he knows how to put himself across in the media age. Gordon Brown is more a twentieth century platform speaker, good at milking the applause of functionaries at party rallies but looking hopelessly lost when dealing one-to-one with the high-tech media of today.

[Tony Makara]

Philip, my brother goes to NYC regularly and he is always full of praise for the way Giuliani cleaned up Manhattan. My brother says Manhattan was fast becoming a turn-off for tourists with intimidating beggars until Giuliani dealt with the problem. Let's hope Mr Giuliani has a few tips for Mr Cameron.

[Yet Another Anon]

Therefore, if the Tores fail to take Hastings in an election - whether it be October 2007 or May 2010 - it will not be a good sign.
In a by election it might not be a good sign, in a General Election it would be one of 650 sets of results, the campaign itself and who was standing would be important, but when the result came out so would the other 649 and if the Conservative Party held Hastings or not this would get rather overshadowed by the sum total of the results because there are always anomalies.

[Yet Another Anon]

Edison, the turnout is going to be a huge factor. Labour won last time with the support of only 22% of those eligible to vote.
And the Conservative Party lost in 2001 and 2005 with smaller proportions than that of people eligible to vote - there are a lot of disillusioned voters of both main parties out there and the Liberal Democrats are probably most at threat from increased turnout.

[Traditional Tory]

I was in Hastings the other day for the first time in years. What a mess.

Well the last time you were in Hastings must have been about 30 years ago because it was in decline long before the Tories last left office. If anything it has improved a little in recent years. There are even a couple of decent restaurants there.

The overseas holiday boom, quantities of large terraced houses suitable for letting to people on social security, and a relatively slow and uncomfortable train service to London had a lot to do with it.

The latter can partly be blamed on a dishonest Victorian contractor whose railway tunnels collapsed and had to be relined. For years BR had to run rickety flat-sided diesel units down to Hastings.

Things have improved in recent years with electrification and single-track running through the tunnels

[Allan Cuthbertson]

The latest polls don't offer a glimmer of hope. Considering an unpopular government well into mid term and they are still 5% ahead. At this stage we should be leading 10 -15% plus if we have a hope of winning.

It's unfortunate that David comes across as a spiv and too Blair like at a time when the general public want gravitas. Maybe he can do what Kinnock done for Labour and we can elect a leader who will be a true blue rather than follow the views of Polly Toynbee!

[TomTOm]

That doesn't work Allan simply because the bulk of the votes in Conservative Party elections are in the very areas of the country where the Conservatives do not need to win seats.

The areas where they need to win seats have insignificant presence in Conservative Party membership levels and as such are effectively disenfranchised in choosing a leader who tends to be in the image of those who vote in K&C, Dorset, Berkshire, Kent, Buckinghamshire, Wiltshire.......so the appeal is to the Lifestyle Conservatives and not to the Ordinary Voters....this is why electing Conservative Leaders is such a disaster when the party is essentially regional nowadays - in terms of members - if not voter appeal

[Bradford]

We must also remember that the 'North' is a very unclear description. For example, rural northern areas do not mirror urban northern areas. I suspect that the north these polls speak of are the West Yorkshire/Lancashire urban marginals which is very worrying indeed.

Indeed - the population of North Yorkshire is smaller than the population of Bradford + Leeds - and these two cities make up over 50% WEst Yorkshire population and are equal to South Yorkshire as a whole.

In 2006 and 2007 Council Elections there was a swing AGAINST the Conservative Councils TOWARDS their Labour Opposition and LibDem Coalition Partners.

The Leader of Bradford Council is a Conservative PPC for Keughley against Ann Cryer.....the Leader of the Conservatives on Leeds Council had his blooding standing against Denis Healey in Leeds 30 years ago.

If Conservatives cannot do better than ONE MP in West Yorkshire they are in big trouble