Gould advises Brown to call an early poll

It happened to Tony Blair, now it's happened to Gordon Brown: a memo from Philip Gould has been leaked to the Daily Mirror. In the memo, apparently written before Brown took over from Blair, Philip Gould advises the Prime Minister to call an early poll.

In his ten-point plan Gould says the Prime Minister should portray himself as a "muscular" leader with a strategy of "audacious advance". He says:

"The best way of achieving this is to hold an early election after a short period of intense and compelling activity - a kind of 'shock and awe strategy' blasting through the opposition. It is inconceivable that you will not enjoy a significant honeymoon when you become leader. You need to build on this and translate it into a new mandate. I am sure this strategy will work."

He does make clear the problems that Labour face in the next election - warning that about 60% of voters want "dramatic change" - but tells Brown:

"You have to exemplify renewal, change, and a fresh start. Your Premiership has to have a dynamism and an energy that pulls people along in its slipstream. You must become the change Britain needs."

Gould warns Brown against emulating Blair saying: "It will not be enough just to be different to Tony. You should be identifying challenges and driving the nation forward to meeting them. You should own the future." He adds  "When you become leader, you must unleash your power and energy and emerge as the compelling politician and person that you are. Your own distinctive charisma will then emerge."

He makes clear that a radical strategy of change is needed to increase Labour's vote and identifies crime, terror and immigration as the main political issues, even more important than public services and the economy.

Telling Brown: "You should aim to be a great reforming PM." he says: "You must start election planning early. We can't leave it late as we did last time. We must make a start."

Comments

[Dismayed]

"He ... identifies crime, terror and immigration as the main political issues, even more important than public services and the economy."

That's not what Team Dave thinks. Taxi for Hilton!

[James Maskell]

Its a deliberate leak aimed at keeping us very edgy. We'd be idiots to fall for this. The letter was written to be leaked. Look at the flowery language...

[Mark Fulford]

This memo portrays Brown in a very positive light -- all bolster, no bash. I wonder if both Gould memos were leaked by the same person.

[Dismayed]

James, it sounds more like a job application from a Blairite who is desperate to retain his position. The advice is sound despite the language.

Anyway, Dave wants an early election - just as a turkey looks forward to Christmas.

[Andrew Woodman]

It's a bluff. To use a poker analogy, they don't have the chips to meet the blind.

[Jake]

"power and energy" etc etc

-sounds like the mewlings of one of Saddam Husein's sycophants.

Pass the sick bag .

[Richard Woolley]

Where are the news archives please editor/deputy editor?

[malcolm]

I hope it is a bluff Andrew. I definitely don't want an election this year.It's going to tack us a while to get back on track.

[jorgen]

Why should Brown call an election now? He will win the next election also if he calls it in 2008 or 9, thus getting dome "free" years.

[Bruce Mackie]

Well then that is ok if they want to but Gordon Brown has to own up to all the Tax increases as Chancellor and also every action of the Blair Gov of which he was the one who held the purse strings and was obviously one of the main players. Why don't we lauch into an all round attack on his role as Chancellor .It should include the increases in borrowing to pay for all the hairbrained schemes to support the state machine and increases of support to those who can work ,won't work brigade. Let's call their bluff and bearing in mind that the Labour Party is deeply in debt and with a falling membership they won't recover sufficiently to fight an election at this time.

[The Huntsman]

The Scotsman at http://tinyurl.com/ytzpm7 makes two good points about the possibility of an autumn election which make sense:

"One source pointed out that Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary and Labour's election supremo, would not be on holiday now if an election was expected in two-and-a-half months' time.

In Scotland, the [Labour] party is facing even bigger hurdles in trying to muster enthusiasm among activists demoralised by the loss of the Holyrood election. Insiders believe Labour MSPs, particularly those who served as ministers, are struggling with life in opposition and have failed to generate big policy ideas."

Given that Labour received such a drubbing in the Scottish Parliamentary elections and lost power as a result, their lack of morale is to be understood. In addition they are likely to ditch their Leader, Jack McConnell, and so will have to go through the ructions of a Leadership Contest. As these things tend to be done rather bloodily in North Britain there is every risk of a highly divisive contest undermining Labour's position in Scotland yet further, something which Macavity will be desperate to avoid, given how much he and the Scots Junta depend on Scots MPs to dominate England. In addition the war chests will be somewhat empty after the vruisng may elections.

Another interesting feature of Scottish politics is the extraordinary plunge in LibDem poll support which is now said to be down to 4% (see here) in Scotland, most of it going off to the SNP who are enjoying a prolonged honeymoon. A surge of support for the Nats also threatens a demoralised Scottish Labour party which is why we almost certainly will not have an autumn election.

The fact that Douglas Alexander, a senior member of the Scots Junta, has gone off on his holidays also militates against an autumn election.

The spring, however, is still a real possibility.

Doubtless we shall all be confounded in due course, for examining the entrails of a recently slaughtered cockerel is no more reliable now than it was in Roman times.

[The Huntsman]

Sorry for the typo: vruising = bruising

[London N12]

I don't think it is a bluff as it all makes sense, or at least it might.

But the big advantage the Conservative Party has is money. Labour are said to want to ban billboard advertising so the obvious response is to get advertising big time - time for David Cameron to unlock the moneybox.

[GroundhogDay]

Trevor Kavanagh the shrewd judge from "The Sun, wot won it" believes Dave is doomed and the Brown will "win and win big"...

All the evidence is starting to point to this horrendous conclusion, what a mess...

[Robin Millar]

The only interesting aspect of this is whether or not Gordon Brown solicited the advice.

[David]

"He ... identifies crime, terror and immigration as the main political issues, even more important than public services and the economy.""

It's a complete bluff. Designed to try and get the Tories to go on about issue that allow Labour to turn around as say 'Same old Tories'.

"Trevor Kavanagh the shrewd judge from "The Sun, wot won it" believes Dave is doomed and the Brown will "win and win big"..."

Unfortunately for Trev, electoral maths means that even if Cameron performs as badly as Hague in 2001, it will be a hung Parliament.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Regardless of whether Broon calls an election, all Conservatives - especially in marginal seats - should already be campaigning a minimum of two-three nights a week. This has two advantages: 1. If Labour call a snap election, voters would have seen us out and about. 2. If there isn't an election looming and we start work now, we can say that we work "all year-round, not just at election time". It’s a very powerful slogan to have as a strapline on your In Touches.

[Dismayed]

David, the opinion polls show that immigration is top of voters' worries. They are concerned that immigrants get preferential treatment in housing, costing the NHS millions, are depressing salaries and taking the jobs of their children. Get real!

[Dismayed]

Justin, my A lister candidate (in a target seat) campaigns only once a week. A lot of members have resigned in disgust. Key wards have no deliverers at all.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Well, we in Tottenham are now out at least three times a week. If we can do it...

Dismayed, perhaps your Executive should ask your PS to appear before them? If that fails you might want to consider approaching your ACD, the Head of the Candidates' List or the Party Chairman. From what you say, it doesn't sound too good.

[Simon Denis]

Surely the most sigficant of all Gould's remarks is that which warns Brown not to emulate Blair. In short, the electorate is sick of weasle worded compromise and wants sincere beliefs - expressed in decisive, openly partisan policies. Now more than ever, therefore, project Cameron is irrelevant. It always was. The brief Cameron honeymoon, historians will find, was due not to his imitation of Blair, but to the fact that the continued presence of phony Tony made even David Cameron look upright and straightforward. Now that he stands beside Brown he looks lightweight and oily, like a salad. Rare Scotch beef will, I fear, win the day.

[TomTom]

it will be a hung Parliament.

Labour cannot suffer from a hung parliament since it has so much experience of governing with LibDems in Wales and Scotland

[Oliver Arthurs]

"Gould advises Brown to call an early poll".

Bring it on. All the anti-Cameron moans are confined to the 'bubble' - those of us in the party and those in the media. Normal voters aren't interested. What they are interested in is getting rid of Labour - and they'll vote for the party most likely to go that, regardless of whether some non-entity ex-candidates are going around whispering about the leader to non-entity journalists or not.

Eyes on the prize.

[Patriot]

A cut and paste from an article in the media yesterday.

""Look at the Ipsos MORI tracking poll on the most important issues facing Britain today. It has gone out of fashion with pollsters, that question, but MORI still asks it and the top four are race and immigration followed by the NHS, then crime, and then defence/international terror/foreign affairs. In ten years immigration and terror have replaced the EU and unemployment; but schools, hospitals and crime have remained in the top four pretty much throughout.""

What do we hear that Gould is advising?

""He makes clear that a radical strategy of change is needed to increase Labour's vote and identifies crime, terror and immigration as the main political issues, even more important than public services and the economy.""

What's our main thrust?

Family breakdown

Sigh.....

[Dismayed]

The current opinion polls would give Labour an overall majority of over 100. Brown can afford to lose a few seats to the SNP because Labour would gain far more from the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

David Cameron can only hope that Brown does not have the guts or money to call an autumn election. The unions will probably stump up the necessary cash so I would not book a Blackpool conference hotel at the moment.

[Serf]

Your Premiership has to have a dynamism and an energy that pulls people along in its slipstream.

That would be all the people lining up to ask for their money back.

If all the people around Brown treat him like this, use of Andrex in the Pension Thief's household will fall substantially.

[Scotty]

"Its a deliberate leak aimed at keeping us very edgy. We'd be idiots to fall for this. The letter was written to be leaked. Look at the flowery language..."

James I agree with you entirely. This is the 2nd leak in two days and the timing at the end of a few torrid weeks for us in the media convinces me it is no accident. Do I believe that Brown's media operation has suddenly become in need of a plumber to fix it, NO.
This strategy is aimed at smoking out a few more dissenters within the party to keep the media heat on Cameron and our party, therefore trying to force us onto the back foot by changing our strategy and tacking hard right quickly and loudly on dog whistle issues.
Brown wants to be seen as the change and Cameron to be seen as the same old tory leader being forced back into our failed ways.
I am not saying that their isn't a real risk of a GE this year, but Gordon NEEDS to have a consistently big lead in the polls and that requires a prolonged media honeymoon for it to become a realistic option. A main component of that strategy is to put us back into that core vote box with the lid firmly shut.
A united Conservative party attacking Brown's record in government and more importantly challenging the more wild claims in the media about a NEW kind of PM and government with hard facts all summer is what is needed.
We need to show real hunger and conviction by remaining on track with our own strategy which must set the agenda.
The Huntsman makes a very valid point about the situation for Labour in Scotland, I would also bet that Brown's internal polling will show that the votes are piling up in the wrong places for Labour down South.

Dismayed, your constant carping is beyond parody. I have this picture of a Labour astro turfer sitting in a cupboard some where in Labour HQ busily typing away.
You first post says it all, funny how public services and the economy are no longer deemed important issues just as Labour's record on both seems to be going down the pan? A word of warning, crime, terror and immigration have always been important to voters in this country, BUT concentrating on them alone has never brought electoral success.

[Tony Makara]

I must say here and now that I don't usually believe in conspiricy theories. However! The recent media coverage of Brown, combined with the anti-Cameron coverage of late does look rather concocted. Why has Brown been so keen to revamp all those old promises? Why is the BBC using the term 'The New Government' so much? All this does seem co-ordinated, even down to Browns three white angels in the commons. Well if Brown goes to the people on October the 25th that's ok bt me. Its a big gample for Brown, he is gambling everything for an extra two years of power. Still, with the spectre of economic downturn floating just around the corner Brown knows he has to go early.

[tapestry]

He needs to go the polls before election fraud is made impossible. Ballot boxes are going to be stored overnight now with two days allowed for the count. It won't only be postal vote fraud this time, but ballot box tampering is also likely.

Even then it's a high risk strategy for Brown to take. Cameron will have many easy targets to attack such as the Constitution. The media will be backing Brown so Cameron must deliver the message through the old fashioned door to door, street leaflets etc, and the internet as well as the main media.

[George Hinton]

Gould is a very savvy player, and let's be frank gordo is following a game plan that is almost an outline of gould's alleged letter.

Having said that, Gordo is inextricably tied up with Blair/NuLab and the events of the last 10 years. He cannot distance himself, he was Chancellor and the holder/keper of the purse strings. It is up to DC, CCHQ, Party members, Local Constituencies and supporters to carry that message across the land.
Perhaps DC needs to borrow The Who's, Won't Get Fooled Again, to drive that message home.
Continual playing of the track whilst highlighting failures and broken promises and fudges.
He can start getting the public's trust by pledging to link MP's salaries to the public sector...say on a level with nurses or junior civil servants!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

[Annabel Herriott]

Our PPC - NON A lister and local man Jason McCartney is busy. His Website is up and running - jason@jasonmccartney - full of constituency news and activity. We are Campaigning - local surveys. Wiliam Hague and Liam Fox have been up. Its all happening in Colne Valley. Check us out.

[tapestry]

The last thing Brussels wants right now is a British General Election. It would inevitably draw the issue of the Constitution onto the stage and get people focusing on it. That is not the EU's strategy for getting it through, which is to deny its significance, keep it low key and get it through by stealth.

The timing of Brown's Accession was clearly coordinated with the Constitution negotiations, and with the arrival of Sarkozy. Brown has been supported into position by the EU. He will hardly act to displease them now.

Gould's strategy would be correct were it not for the EU being the biggest game in town. Publicising Gould's views is all about lionising Brown, flattering his ego and trying to 'sell' him to a still sceptical electorate - not for an election but because the supposed bounce is already sagging.

[Matt Wright]

In some ways what Gould is reported to be saying is not news as Brown appears to be following that sort of tactic. However it does highlight a consistent fault line in the continuing Blair-Brown project - namely they are in short term reactionary mode and replacing spin with super-spin. Great opportunities for Cameron if he sticks to a plan and just shifts up a gear and we all row in the same direction,

Matt

[Traditional Tory]

All the media playing down today is obviously to lull Dave and Co into a false sense of security.

The public like what they see of Brown and it's almost inconceivable that they won't give him the benefit of the doubt if he goes for an autumn election. Delay could be dangerous.

I think he'll do it and Dave will have his big chance to twitter around raving about sunshine and flowers as the election goes down the pan.

Sombre, serious, Brown reflects the nation's current mood. Dave is soooh over.

[Jomo]

From the comments by Bright in the New Stateman (headlined above) Nulab will present it, as always, as the progressive forces against the reactionaries. (Although how asking for a peerage makes you progressive is beyond me).

DC might think it is now worth challenging Brown on defence and foreign policy, as well as schools and hospitals.

Is the broken society is really a winner? It has the same potential problems as "back to basics." In any case Brown and Nulab can outpreach anyone.

[Jomo]

Sorry
1 "is" too many in the 2nd last line

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper / delusional conservative]

The only Tory policies I am aware of have been cancelled: no more grammar schools, possible charges for museums, and I am not sure they are going with tax breaks for marrieds.

Why would anyone vote Tory whenever the election is called? They even want to prevent change at the NHS.

[Keep the elderly offline]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR

[Scotty]

Tim, pretty sure that the rude comment above directed at Annabel will be someone with form for this kind of personal attack on other posters.
Annabel, I have made the same mistake on more than one occasion, but luckily one or two helpful posters came to my aid and pointed me in the direction of Tim's very useful guide to posting links on the site.
Hope this link helps.
commenting guidelines

[Richard Carey]

The website for Jason McCartney, Colne Valley PPC that Annabel was referring to can be found here.

No need to be rude, people - no animals were harmed in the finding of this link!

[Patriot]

Annabel - easy mistake to make - thanks for the heads up - it's a nice site.

[Dick Wishart]

This so called leak is achieving what it was meant to do , getting you all posting and jumping up and down. Come on back to earth and ignore it!

[Scotty]

"This so called leak is achieving what it was meant to do , getting you all posting and jumping up and down. Come on back to earth and ignore it!"

Dick, the term "shock and awe" will come back to haunt Brown especially when hacks start using their pens to finally join up the dots on this strategy. Agree with your advice and the Conservatives should stand firm, stay the course and not start running for cover at the first sign of Labour bluster.
This is not a new PM or government but the same recycled spin from the clunking fist.

[Scotty]

I don't think that the Conservative leadership underestimated Brown any more than most seasoned commentators. But equally we must not let him rebuild his *mythical* political stature as if he is the bogey man, well okay in one manner of speaking he is but you get my point.

[Annabel Herriott]

Oh Dear "Keep the elderly off line." Here I am still driving a car as well.
Serendipity actually. More people have probably gone to have a looksee. Hat tip you rude little man.

[Keep Annabel off the roads]

"Here I am still driving a car as well."

At 28mph in the fast lane no doubt!

[Richard Carey]

Posted by: Keep Annabel off the roads | August 02, 2007 at 20:12

I've met Annabel once or twice (once while she was working to promote this site actually, I think!) and she's a doughty campaigner for our party. She deserves better than to be trashed by anonymous carpers. Find something better to do, go deliver some newsletters or something.

[Traditional Tory]

>>Cough<< Did you just flush your sense of humour down the toilet, Richard?

[Scotty]

"She deserves better than to be trashed by anonymous carpers."

Richard I totally agree.

[Watch out]

Uh-oh. Who's that driving on the pavement?

[Annabel Herriott]

Water off a ducks back lads. I normally do West Yorks to Bournemouth in 5 hours. Now can we return to the thread. Nothing is for nothing though. Raised some interest for Jason's web site!!!!

[M. Anon]

Nowhere in this document does he mention the key and crucial fact: "You will get an obvious bounce as a new PM. Sections of the Tory Party, being full of headless chickens, will immediately go up the wall and try to knife the leader quite publicly. The public will not vote for such a split party, their opinion poll ratings will fall - which will merely wind the headless chickens up further. October Election and a 100 majority, and Liam Fox as the next Leader of the Opposition. We're laughing!"

[Yo Yo]

Yo the tories are panicking like a chicken. in a hen house. How can weexpect them to run the country when they panick like this. They need to get some weed.