First poll results under fightback due

Ben Brogan reckons a YouGov poll for tomorrow's Telegraph will give Brown a wider lead than the 5% he got in the recent ICM poll, and that Cameron's ratings have fallen. He quotes claims from CCHQ that their internal Populus polls show the opposite.

A significant widening would go against most people's instincts as the last poll was taken before the "social breakdown crisis" in which Brown has been very quiet.

10pm update: A worrying headline in the Telegraph, "Tory blow in polls fuels election speculation", distracts from a Conservative increase of one point over the last YouGov poll and a two point drop for the LibDems - 41%, 33%, 14%. Cameron is personally up one point to 20% on the "best Prime Minister" stakes, with Brown ahead on 44%. Insiders claim the party's internal polling puts Labour on 37% and the Conservatives on 36%.

Contrary to the headline of this post the survey is said to have been "taken before Mr Cameron’s fightback on crime and immigration this week" so expectations can be lowered a little. Anthony King, however, still feels able to say that "[David Cameron's] “bare-knuckled fight” with Gordon Brown seems to have left him rather than Mr Brown on the canvass".

King points to some encouraging details though; majorities of those asked believe that the government wastes a lot of money, that the threshold for the top rate of income tax should be raised, and that inheritance tax should be abolished.

Deputy Editor

Graphic added at 11.30pm:

Comments

[Ben Surtees]

To be fair to Brogan he does say that the YouGov poll in comparison to the ICM poll is worse for the Conservatives... so it could well still show a reduced Labour lead on the ten point gap it last recorded.

However it's also worth remembering that despite the "fight back" the party and DC have struggled to break into the broadcast media much over the last few days... yes we've had, newsnight (a strong performance by DC)and some references to Cameron's addressing of the crime issue, as well as good coverage in the Tory press along with the Sun but nothing like what we had for the Redwood Report or even the "anarchy in the UK" speech in the TV News.

Its a case of the gap between political enthusiasts impression of events and "normal" (largely disinterested) people's perceptions being very different... as you say we shall see, but i would have expected anything dramatic based on the events of the last week.

[michael mcgough]

It will be interesting to see tonight's result in the by-election in Epping Forest(Loughton Alderton ward).One of two sitting BNP councillors resigned and it is a 6 horse fight,residents ,UKIP,BNP and the main 3.The BNP have canvassed en masse(one former senior Tory included).Labour have not been seen and the small Tory contingent confused residents with their new green(you shall not fly) and turquoise leaflets.

[TomTom]

Polls in October/November matter - AFTER Conferences and as Public Sector Workers start to complain about staged pay awards and rising food prices....and as Junior Doctor contracts expire in October

[GH]

To the Editor well you seem to be doing most damage to the party.... keep going on TV, Radio etc and slating DC and the party. Once the election is over and we are not in No 10 I hope you go away and we never hear from you again.
I hear you are about to be served papaers for defamation? well their is s god after all.

[Josh]

If the pattern over the next couple of months is a gradual erosion of the Brown lead, then I would say that validates Cameron's strategy.

I watched a rerun of an Alan Duncan speech on 18DS. It was a week after the local election results when the Tories looked unstoppable (controlling two thirds of local government is rather good). He was full of bravado about how the Tories are on the rise and Labour and Libs are on the decline.

You might think he'd be eating humble pie at the moment, except that he did say he expected a few months of Brown bounce. We've had two so far. Don't panic just yet.

[AnotherOne]

Does anyone really take these polls seriously? Three days after Brown took over there was a poll in which he was far ahead of the Conservatives - based on a whole 1 full day of working as PM, and the poll was probably being researched before power hand over! That is the most ridiculous thing ever!

And now, contradictory to common sense, he is doing even better? After all the troubles? And, what is the deal with all these polls being published every 2 days or so? Can things really change in such a short amount of time? We didnt have such polls when Hague became leader, or when IDS became leader or even when Howard took over!

Why are the pollsters even hanging around refuting speculation on the polls, saying "No no no, contrary to what you might think, everybody loves Brown even more. In fact, as things become worse for him and Labour, the more the people like him!"

Their job is to report on what people feel, not bolster one side of their poll. Just shows what a disgrace the media and its appendages at the pollsters are these days. Hail Comrade BROWN - OR ELSE!

These polls are there for only two reasons: To create an image that Brown is unstoppable, and therefore make the disinterested public believe the Conservatives are hopeless, and Labour are the only real option. This with the ultimate goal of getting Brown to hold an autumn election before things start to get messy and the public get even more fedup of the Bowser Brown.

And secondly, it is to unnerve the Conservative "supporters" and "grassroots" in order to oust Cameron - the only Conservative leader for the last 10 years that has any chance of leading the party to victory (except Howard who may have been able to do it if he had come in instead of the joke that was IDS - Labour's greatest weapon of the time).

What "supporters" of the party need to do is act like the "roots" they claim to be - stand firm and support the leader! You people have to stop this despairing death cult attitude and just accept that the country has changed, and just being a Tory Boy will not win you elections. Cameron knows what must be done (e.g. setting up the Policy groups - great idea!) to get back to power. Until you fools stop this whole "I'll only support the leader if he reminds me of myself" track (is that why you all voted for one bald man, and then another even more unpresentable bald clown?) the Conservatives will never win.

[GH]

Well said "anotherone" the biggest fool who supported that 1st bald clown was the Editor of this site, who is now tring to show the Conservatives in a bad light to the news media........ lets get a new Editor.

[malcolm]

To GH 'eh?'. Tim has done a hell of a lot of good for this party. Which bit's of his editorials do you think are wrong?

[gh]

80% of it... I am not alone on thhis. The media loves Tim because he gives them enough to write negative articles about the party... all Time seemd to say to the media is How high do you want me to jump...

[AnotherOne]

As someone else asked on a different thread: Is there a net gain from websites such as these? I fear not. The same can be said of the telegraph website.

One of the greatest threats to rational thought is the internet. Labour supporters get together and formulate strategies of how they can keep their beloved Party Comrades (should that be Politburo?) in power and how they can further smear the Conservatives and punish the middle classes for having comfortable and secure family lives (e.g. as Bowser Brown immediately abolished the Marriage allowance on coming to power).

When it comes to Conservatives however, alas, the old old old guard come together and discuss their plots of sedition without any voices of moderation and counter-argument to be found (as would be if the same issues were being discussed in a pub or other meeting place). So they enter a self-affirming cycle of hating Cameron and the new policies.

The same happens with websites that support terrorism, promote racism, etc. etc. Oh Tim Bernes-Lee - a pox on thee!

Make no mistake about it: The greatest threat to a Conservative victory are the conservative "grassroot supporters"!

[syed]

COMMENT OVERRIDDEN FOR BEING BY THE SAME PERSON AS "GH"

[Cleo]

The polls will show a strengthening of the Labour lead. Cameron's recent treading into the core vote issues and the media and this site saying it is a change of strategy and a lurch to the right will cost the party the new voters Cameron has attracted to the Conservative fold.

[malcolm]

You think so 'Another One'? Try reading Labourhome some time.Those lefties can be pretty vicious with each other.
Some of the comments on this site might be damaging but the editorials even when I don't agree with them are usually very measured and intelligently written. Conhome is now quoted widely by the media in a way no other political blog is. Most of the most of the time it is quoted in support of our party. Overall as a fairly loyal member of the party I think it is a tremendous force for good.If you want a site with no disagreement and debate I suggest you and gh go to conservatives.com

[Cleo]

YouGov as reported in the Telegraph:

Labour 41 (n/c)
Tories 33 (+1)
LibDems 14 (-2)

[malcolm]

I'm beginning to seriously doubt you're a floating voter Cleo.A floating voter of the 'Labour troll' variety perhaps?

[Cllr Brook Whelan]

I don't believe we should read too much into individual polls - voters are very fickle when asked things like how they may vote.

The last ten days or so has been very good for the party, and Labour know they are vulnerable on crime. Let's keep the momentum going.

[Cleo]

I am not a Labour troll or a troll of any sort.

[Matt Wright]

Polling does seem to have changed somewhat. The polls are more frequent and seem to be more specific to those that commission them. This makes it harder to draw conclusions from a series of polls.

Obviously we did fall behind, in part because of the Brown bounce, but I would be suprised if there is no shift back to us in the polls in Sept. Response to the last few days has been good and if its built on the polls will improve.

I am back canvassing again after a short break after the May elections and I'm not detecting the level of negativity we are led to believe exists across our core vote. Of course there are a few concerned about some things but very few who say they won't vote Tory because of it.

Either way its clear there is everything to play for.

Matt

[Mountjoy (NOT FELICITY)]

This poll, if true, is S I C K E N I N G .

[Cleo]

The mistakes of 2001 and 2005 are about to be made all over again, core vote strategy delivers core votes.

[malcolm]

If it we were adopting a core strategy Cleo. But Cameron isn't doing that. Do you honestly think immigration and crime are not important to the electorate? If you really are a floating voter I suggest you start using the brains God gave you and satop sort of spouting the sort of rubbish that could come out of the mouth of a Labour spin doctor or a BBC journalist.

[Tony Sharp]

It is not a core vote strategem, it is the scoping of the party position on issues that are of most concern to people up and down the country. Would those who are kicking up a fuss prefer the leadership to ignore such major issues in case the media perceives it as a 'lurch to the right'? The leadership should speak up on issues that concern people and do so without fear.

[Voice from the South West]

Hmmmm, I'm sorry but I do not believe that Brown is leading Labour to 40% + ratings, it just does not feel right. Brown may have recovered some of the ground that Blair lost in 2005-07, but to suggest that Labour will win a 2001-style landslide is something I think is extremely unlikely to happen. I suspect the ICM findings presented a more accurate picture.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

Yep the greatest threat to our party as said by “anotherone” is people like Tim the editor of this site. And yes I believe Tim you are about to have a very nice man deliver you the papers for defamation.... see you in Court".

Posted by: syed | August 30, 2007 at 21:30

Pathetic rubbish! The greatest threat to your party are weasel words, policies that the majority have little affinity with and arrogance/deafness. Surely it can't possibly be you that has been defamed, can it?

[TomTom]

Oh Tim Bernes-Lee - a pox on thee!

What little twerp wrote this ? Tim Berners-Lee is a better man than you will ever be. Not only a First in Physics and work at CERN but developing HTML......AnotherOne is clearly another rabid ranter with nothing to say

[Cleo]

We have a difference of opinion Malcolm and all you can do is be rude. On the day Gordon Brown is talking about the economy, public sector pay, inflation and mortgages, the Conservatives are talking about immigration and defending a perceived lurch to the right. As a floating voter I am concerned about my mortgage, inflation, public services and the environment. Maybe I am the only floating voter who has these concerns but I don't think so.

[david]

poll in Labour 41 Con 33 LD 14

[CCTV]

As a floating voter I am concerned about my mortgage, inflation, public services and the environment.

Float as much as you want Cleo...when the rains return floating may be flooding anyway. I don't care about your mortgage - if you can't afford it you shouldn't have signed the papers......interests rates go up and down...budget for it.

Public Services have had billions poured into them but that spending was planned to plateau after 2008....we spend too much on Education and Health, and as immigration increases we get another 750,000 plus each year requiring more public spending.

Obviously we need VAT on food and childrens clothing, and to raise it to 25% so we can provide for the 1 million plus each year coming into the country...after all they need doctors, hospital beds, pensions, tax credits, housing benefits, incapacity benefit, and more roads for their cars, more airport runways for when they visit their relatives or relatives visit them.

We are heading for 70 million population

http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.toomany.uk.html

UK population growth is environmentally unsustainable, from a national and international point of view, and if it is environmentally unsustainable it is also economically unsustainable, for without ecologically healthy land our economy will not be able to support its own people without causing damage to the environment of other nations.

The UK, whose population reached 60.6 million in mid-2006, is made up of four constituent countries - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Together, this territory is one of the most crowded areas in the world, yet its population continues to grow by the equivalent of one large city every year. Yet, against the will of most UK inhabitants, the government continues to expand our numbers. The number of people living in the UK has already increased sixfold since 1800 and by a fifth since 1950,

England alone is home to more than 50 million people, making it the fourth-most densely populated country in the world with a staggering 998 inhabitants per square mile, if small city and island-states are excluded - even more crowded than Japan. Yet no political party has a policy aimed at stabilising and reducing today's environmentally unsustainable population.

The amount of land available to each inhabitant of the UK - to provide for our ecological needs, including renewable energy, and to absorb the waste products of our consumption - has shrunk to nearly a tenth of that available in 1750. The UK is slightly smaller than Oregon, a single state of the USA. We have a surface area of 24 million hectares of land and inland water to absorb the environmental impacts of all our consumption - that's less than half a hectare (one acre) each - and this environmental space is shrinking every year.

[Cleo]

You wonder why you are called the nasty party? You do not deserve to govern.

[John Scott]

Cameron has upset a lot of floating voters because he has flip flopped back to the old anti-immigration policies and right wing rhetoric on Europe (which even Tory voters don't care about these days).

The tax policy is now laughable - abolishing inheritance tax, which is paid by 6% of the population, and increasing taxes on air travel, paid by 80% of the population. Barking mad.

[Andrew Woodman]

This thread seems to have been overtaken by trolls. gh is obviously a nutter.

I have starting to have doubts about those yougov polls. I know the Lib Dems aren't doing much but these low teens aren't that believable. I think 18 is more relistic and that would put Labout on 37 as our internal polls suggest.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

As a floating voter I am concerned about my mortgage, inflation, public services and the environment. Maybe I am the only floating voter who has these concerns but I don't think so.

Posted by: Cleo | August 30, 2007 at 22:10

Well, as a floating voter Cleo I would ask myself who is in power at the moment and has been for a decade and who, therefore is to blame for my present concerns? Please don't come up with Maggie Thatcher - she has been out of power for 17 years, I think, although when it comes to bad news the Labour Party will try to kid you otherwise. No, take it from me, Maggie has been out of Downing St for quite some time.

There are quite a few floating voters around; (some face down) waiting for a favourable current, others have actually sunk without trace (having given up hope of rescue).

[Patsy Sergeant]

Oh dear 'Cleo' back to the same old verbal strategy as the other day. Your last comment above hardly demonstrates that you are a 'floating voter', so stop kidding yourself and get back to the group/party that you feel more suited to.

[Cleo]

I agree that Labour has failed to deliver and I want to vote for a modern, progressive centre-right party that talks about my concerns.

[Michael Davidson]

Well this is a surprise isn't it? Not.

As long as Cameron is in charge, we'll keep going down.

All that Newsnight interview did was show the average voter how much he's flip-flopped from hug-a-hoodie and the environment at the start to his current pretence that he's cracking down on crime and immigration. It doesn't wash with the public and people on here need to understand that.

The newspaper commentators on Sky News are falling over themselves saying how big Brown's majority will be if he calls an election now.

If Labour increases its majority at the next election, then we may as well give up. I thought IDS was useless, but compared to this clown we've got now, he's a political genius.

[malcolm]

I want to vote for a modern centre right party that talks about my concerns-Cleo Well that's what you have Cleo with the current party.I suggest you start supporting for a change and not attacking it as you do just about the whole damned time.

[Matt Wright]

Well firstly Cameron didn't say "hug a hoodie" but we know you don't care about that and prefer to repeat Labour spin.

That said I think the fight back recently is on the right lines. It has rattled Labour which is always a good clue we are onto something. However its a stepping up of strategy that simply hasn't had time to sink in yet for voters.

We would be foolish to be put off the scent and need to keep the pressure on,

Matt

[malcolm]

Absolutely right Matt.Who needs enemies when you have 'supporters' like some of the posters above?

[Michael Davidson]

Matt Wright, you think Labour are rattled? What possible evidence do you have for that? Given yet another abysmal poll result (for us) I doubt Brown will be feeling troubled any time soon.

Cameron went too far left in the early days for him to be taken seriously now when he talks about criminals and immigrants.

The headline in tomorrow's Telegraph will make sure any 'comeback' was short-lived. I just look forward to the day when we have a proper leader who the party can unite around rather than the current CCHQ cronies who seem to be on a mission to destroy this party and keep Brown in Number 10.

[Tony Makara]

Its very important to remember that the average voter does not see politics in the way that activists do. For the average voter politics is a disposable entity, he/she does't go looking for political information, they wait for it to arrive on their lap in the form of news, etc. That's why the Brown bounce is sure to be transient. Gordon Brown had several news boosts right after his coronation as unelected prime minister. So for the moment the public are still feeding off that pro-Brown info, but that will change over time.

The main thing for the Conservative party is to stay hitting the headlines, to keep a presence in the public eye. Party headquaters ought to have a team in place, following the news closely, then responding to each worthy news item with relevant quotes from shadow cabinet members. This is the way to reach the wider non-political public.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

Posted by: malcolm | August 30, 2007 at 22:58

Quite right, Malcolm and a rearrangemnt of your comment could be: as a member of the Conservative Party who needs supporters (all right, all right! - I was only joking).

[Matt Wright]

Michael, Labour have been rattled in the last few days. We need to build on that. Without in anyway rubbishing the poll you are referring to, it may not as yet reflect that recent gearing up of message. I think we would be foolish to be blown off course and should keep up a coherent message on crime, NHS etc. Other than that you seem to be pleased at any problems rather than keen to make things work, an approach that certainly will keep Brown in Nos 10.

[Dontmakemelaugh]

I am going to bed now before I get told off. Good night and sweet dreams (I am going to dream of Cleo - could be a nightmare).

[Mountjoy (NOT FELICITY)]

The Labour Government is one of the most discredited, dishonest and malicious to have ever ruled. And yet it has a spring in its step because Labour has replaced its best ever leader with the man who has run the Treasury for the past 10 years with false distinction.

And yet it is on 41% according to YouGov.

The Conservatives on 33% - under David Cameron, its best ever leader, who alongside David Davis stood tall against crime and social breakdown at the weekend - and who was masterful on Newsnight against onslaught from a rather one-sided panel who seemed more interested in immigration than the current key policy areas that the Tories realise need to be addressed?

Exactly what is the electorate thinking? Why is it sleepwalking its way to disaster? (With the exception of the Scottish people, who are turning their backs on Labour.) As we argued on this blog one week ago, there is no way that Brown is going to call a snap general election because of the uncertainty of the opinion polls - and the vagaries of the economy - and because he honestly isn’t confident enough to take the risk.

[Dominic]

I applaud the Editor and many other people that post with honesty even on this blog some individuals do try so much spin and waffle after ten years of Labour it can be spotted immediately
There should only be room for truthful honest serious Politicians who do not have to take their lead from over grown Schoolboys at CHQ

[Graham D'Amiral]

So what this poll shows is just like ICM a few days ago a small increase in conservative support that has led to a slight narrowing of labour's lead and that lib dem support continues to fall.

[Edison Smith]

I'm sorry but I simply refuse to believe Brown support is running at 40%+, and if it is, it's unlikely to last much into the autumn.

CCHQ are saying it's more like Lab 37 Cons 36 and I for one agree with that stat.

Any mention of the Newsnight interview being a negative is ludicrous: It was an excellent performance by Cameron - even a Labour/socialist friend of mine at work today said she had respect for him after watching it.

Tony is quite right: Under Coulson the Tories are getting a bit angry and getting their faces on TV and their names in the papers.

It is essential this continues into the autumn so that when Parliament re-opens and a fresh politics news cycle begins, the 'story' is Tory momentum.

[Edison Smith]

Mountjoy (NOT FELICITY -

I'm sure Labour were asking themselves the same question after their 1992 election defeat.

[AnotherOne]

"TomTom"

HAHA! Pretty pathetic "Tom" you Twit. Or should I say "Tim"? Venom like that could only be explained if you are Bernes-Lee himself. Well done on managing to find the biography page on the internet! (not.) You have no idea who I am so don't try to compare me to anyone.

Grow up! Judging by your comment, I guess I should actually say "Act your age", since you are probably part of the problem I spoke about in the first post here. Also, it would do you good to Learn to Take a JOKE. Sigh, what a wet blanket.

The only rabid ranter here is you. You haven't made a decent contribution except the rant against me. I have plenty to say, and have made a contribution here, and enough of a contribution to drive you mad it appears. Or maybe you are using a "defence" of some scientist to take out your rage at my piece against the twerps that voted for two jokers as leader of the party.

You are a troll, and I am most definitely a far far better man than you are or ever were!

I will not be reading any more of your comments either to me or in general. I'm not going to waste my time on you, so don't bother talking to me.

[Will]

I agree with Edison, since Cameron returned from his holiday, he has maintained an impressive onslaught. This needs to be continued with the rest of the shadow cabinet getting out of their director's chairs and pitching in, as David Davis has done.

However, I wouldn't trust figures from any party when they leak internal numbers. It is a sign of panic.

[Tony Makara]

Edison, there is a saying in the world of entertainment that once you stop being in the public eye you are finished. This is equally true of politics. Tony Blair had massive profile and it won him three elections.

David Cameron must ensure that his profile and that of the shadow cabinet is kept constantly in the news. That means making the news happen rather than waiting for it to happen. Every news item of value must be jumped on and exploited to maximize publicity. That is the best way to take policy to the people. Some of the slogans of late have been excellent, 'Anarchy in the UK' is sticking in peoples minds, 'Bare -knuckle fight for NHS' is superb for the headline writers.

Publicity works. Thats why billions are spent on advertising every year. David Cameron has a product and he has to sell it and sell it big.

[michael mcgough]

re by-election in Epping Forest Tories came 4th(163).BNP 393;RESIDENTS 367;LIBDEMS 172)

[banboris]

Oh dear, we seem to be having a little "social breakdown" of out own this evening.

[New Labour for Britain]

I bring you news Tory boys - an October poll is increasingly being comtemplated in Downing Street - and the reason is obvious: Gordon is prepared to bet the house on what would be the surgical strike that would take you lot out for a generation.

There is a political Cabinet due mid-month and it will make the call.

Stand by for the end of the road.

[Edison Smith]

New Labour for Britain -

Nothing we didn't already know.

Go back to your Alastair Campbell diaries. Don't forget your sandals on the way out.

June 11th 2009 it is then.

[Tony Makara]

New Labour for Britain, I have some swarfega to spare if your ex-leader is still having trouble in getting all that red stuff off his hands.

[Richard Carey]

Oh, dear – taken as a whole probably the wackiest thread of comments I’ve read on CH.com for some time!

The only reason I’m reading it at this time of the morning? I spent the evening working on campaigning/recruitment plans as well as some individual casework I’d received and passed on (no, I’m not an elected representative, by the way, just a volunteer!)

Just a thought really as to how those Conservatives here (I mean the real ones with a capital C who probably know this already) could possibly help move those polling numbers by the odd point or two on a constituency or ward basis, rather than just carping about them.

Okay, rant over, I’m sure normal service will be resumed shortly…

[Sandra Lavelle]

I've heard Michael Cashcroft is bankrolling the Conservative Party these days. He who pays the piper...........

[Graham D'Amiral]

Interesting to note that regarding an october election, when ICM produced their poll a couple of days ago the guardian interpreted it as signs of increased Tory support had led to labour fears that an early election could cost labour their majority, so if anyone thinks the position on the GE really changes with the publication of every poll then life must be hectic in Downing Street.

Cameron has had a very good week, he and the shadow cabinet need to keep on doing what they are doing and then we'll begin to see some positive results.

The Telegraph front page headline "cameron staring defeat in the face" was strange given that their poll shows conservative support is up on last month and labour's lead has narrowed a bit. You Gov for the last couple of months has tended to show a much bigger lead than every other polling organisation and certainly nobody else has labour at 40%+.

[Jack Stone]

Fully endorse everything you say GH.The Editor is fond of telling us that the internet could be used to win the next election. If this is true it seems to me that he and his fellow right-wingers are intent on using it to win it for Labour.

[215cu]

Labour for Britain,

I bring news to the political fairweathers and policy doppelgangers.

Beware the autumn, you can't steal Tory policies anymore, you haven't had any real ones for 10 years. Everyone you create has been massively unpopular, everyone you stole was publicly acceptable.

The economy is going to down the toilet, society is in meltdown, the Public sector is rabid and you are in hock to the unions again. Foreign policy is a disaster and you are sending poorly equipped soliders into battle and they are dying.

Win this one and the electorate will never forgive you for the mess you will make of it.

[Traditional Tory]

I've been wondering for a long time exactly what 'Cleo's' game was. Obviously a troll, but whose troll?

Reading through last night's posts the game plan emerges. Pose (pretty unconvincingly) as a Cameron-friendly floating voter for weeks. Then announce that the long-feared 'lurch to the right' has sent you scurrying to the Labour Party where you were really lurking all the time.

You've been rumbled 'Cleo'.

PART OF COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

[Umbrella man]

Yawn, Jack.

If we lose the next election 80% of the explanation will be the newness of Brown and 20% will be the fact that voters decided Cameron was just a PR guy who would not really improve their lives. Blaming ConHome for those political realities is self-indulgent and means you and other Cameroons don't have to face up to the flaws in your tactics and strategy.

[Graham D'Amiral]

We are not Cameroons or right wingers, we are Conservatives. To quote President Bush totally out of context "you're either with us or against us".

I consider that what David Cameron has done well is to take traditional conservative values and put them in a modern context. It is precisely because David Cameron has set out the grounnd on the Environment and social justice, that he is now able to talk about issues like crime, immigration and tax cuts without the charge of being the same old tories sticking.

Modernisation was always about renewing conservatism not undermining it.

[Traditional Tory]

We are not Cameroons or right wingers, we are Conservatives.

Really, Graham? Does that mean even the Monday Club is now back in the Tory fold?

Call me cynical but I can't imagine you'd have been quite so 'inclusive' when Dave was in his pomp.

Clearly that guy who said 'Labour are your opponents. Your enemies are standing behind you' was way off beam.

[Think about it]

""you're either with us or against us".

Tribal crap. Electoral poison. Nobody outside the Tory Party cares about the future of your party in itself.

It is exactly that kind of thinking that has isolated the vast majority who are not exactly 'with you' so have thus been forced to be 'against you' by your own demands ad insults etc.

Surely a much better mantra would be "you're either with us or we still need to address your concerns*" would recognise that you do not have any right to government and need to address the full spectrum not pick your own agenda and insult those who do not agree.

* hinting is not addressing concerns, it is simply a now well-known Blairite deception of warm weasel words. Only firm policy commitments have any chance of winning the sceptics over.

[Iain]

"I consider that what David Cameron has done well is to take traditional conservative values and put them in a modern context"

Graham D'Amiral, my fear is that he hasn't, 'CCTV' above rightly raises the issue of over population, a situation which is going to get worse if the British establishment get their way and add another 10 million people to our country. At the same time we are being warned about global warming and the effect that will have on agricultural production, and an energy crisis which is also going to impact on agriculture in bio fuels and fertiliser availability. ( today some horrifying figures were released which suggests we will need more food in the next 50 years than we have had in the last 10,000 years ).
So if Cameron was going to raise the issue of 'immigration' he should be raising in the context of over population. That would certainly mesh with his green strategy, and show up the conflict in Labours strategy, which talks green yet pursues a policy of mass immigration, but so far Cameron has not developed this strategy, and from his Newsnight interview seems to be going down the old road of talking about ‘controlling’ immigration, well hinting about it, in order to satisfy core Conservative voters, yet not really being able to discus it for the BBC and Labour would soon dust off the racist charge. Yet if he did discuss it via sustainability and over population, the racist charge couldn’t be made, and they would have to engage in the debate and consequences of their policies. But as I say so far he hasn’t, and makes me question your assertion that he is putting Conservative values in a modern context.

[EML]

Some people really do make me laugh. According to the online Telegraph the actual polling took place between 23 and 25 July. Can someone check this with a paper edition? If it's right then the interviews were conducted over a month ago.

No wonder it still shows an 8-point lead.

[Traditional Tory]

Tribal crap. Electoral poison.

Exactly.

Actually not quite everything that has changed in Britain in recent years is 100% bad. I welcome the decline in the notion that one should defer to people who have never earned the right to respect.

Yet the supposedly 'modern' Cameron Party remains obstinately wedded to that tired old maxim 'loyalty is our secret weapon', notwithstanding the fact that the source of the quotation was David Maxwell-Fyfe, a hanger, flogger and homophobe par excellence who was recently, if unsurprisingly, revealed to have held some interesting views on 'coloured people'.

The party's notion of 'loyalty' is unique because it is transferable and unquenchable.

Mere mortals owe their loyalty to some highly respected or dearly beloved person and it dies with that individual. Card-carrying Tories are required to owe their loyalty to the person who holds the title ofleader for the time being, regardless of whether that leader is Mother Teresa, an empty suit, or a certifiable lunatic.

It's a concept that screams 'You are forbidden to think for yourself. The Leader is always right!', and where have we heard that before?

Isn't this 'loyalty problem' one of the chief reasons why today's young people totally fail to connect with the Cameron Party

[Traditional Tory]

EML- Some people really do make me laugh. According to the online Telegraph the actual polling took place between 23 and 25 July.

Oh dear. Straw-clutching reaches a new low.

Yes it does say 'July' and it is very clearly a misprint for 'August'.

[EML]

Yeah, very clearly. And the numbers could be wrong as well.

[Traditional Tory]

Right. I'd better sell those YouGov shares.

They could be going into meltdown after this.

Well spotted.

[Mountjoy]

Edison Smith 23.44, they probably did say that but I think the Conservatives could still do a lot better in an election than these (statistically dubious) polls suggest :-)

[Jon Gale]

UK Polling Report has:

"carried out between the 24th-28th August. This means it would have been before most of the reaction to the murder of Rhys Jones, let alone the Conservative policy announcements this week."

[Edward]

We need to keep ramming home our message so as to give people a reason to want a change. That has to be social responsibility plus. The problem is people just aren't sick enough of Gordon Brown.

[Oberon Houston]

Cleo, some posters here don't reflect the party as a whole, who are not nasty at all, but are passionate about a form of liberated de-centralised government un-tainted by political ideology and egaltarian resentment. It's not just about hard policy, but a different way of thinking about life.

You are the kind of voter we need to attract in order to win power and I believe your life and many millions of others from across the spectrum will benefit from a conservative government. We need to listen to and attract more people of a weak centre-right tendency on this site, not bawl at them.

[EML]

Thanks Jon Gale. I am ever the optimist, too optimistic sometimes! Disappointing poll, yes, but i'm going to wait until next month's.

[Dick Wishart]

Where are the 30% dont knows

[Sean Fear]

Anthony Wells has released details of the Populus poll for the Conservative Party. It does indeed show Conservative 36%, Labour 37%, Lib Dems 16%, Others 11%. It has been conducted in the same way as their polls for the Times, and is slightly more recent than the Yougov poll.

[John Leonard]

Following Sean Fear's Comment. Here is the link

ICM's Poll for the Conservatives

The sample is small (half) the normal poll sample but UK polling don't seem to think it is particularly inaccurate.

The key to me is the regional figures which are reasonably consistent with those discussed previously. Most importantly the Conservatives are ahead in the Midlands (the Guardian left that fact out in their article last week - wonder why?) which is likely to be the main battleground with London.

I'm not holding my breath for a 2007 GE. I think it is just more Labour spin! But this is likely to calm nerves in the Conservative party a little.

Interesting to see what the Times Poll by ICM says next week.

Now let's see if the press pick up on this?

[John Leonard]

Of course that is the POPULUS POLL NOT THE ICM POLL

duh!

Apologies!!!!!

[Ted]

Ben Brogan's blog in the Mail has a good thread on the You Gove and Populus Poll
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/

[Den]

I've been saying this for sometime on conhome and I'll say it again; we've already lost the next general election. David Cameron was a huge mistake and I take as much responsibility for the present mess as anyone. I was one of those who voted for him over David Davis. My only hope is that Brown calls an election sooner rather than later, so we can put the clown leading us out of his misery.