87% of members want David Cameron to remain leader

The latest survey of Tory members suggests that there is very little support for those maverick MPs who want to change the party leader.  Given four options, 87% of members chose an option which would see David Cameron continuing as leader.  Only 8% thought David Cameron should resign or be challenged.

This puts the latest 42% dissatisfaction rating with David Cameron statistic in context.  The dissatisfaction appears to be strategic and tactical rather than personal. 

Members' views on David Cameron and his strategy are summarised in the bullet points below:

• 31% think David Cameron should stay as leader and stay the course with his strategy.
• 17% should stay as leader and accelerate his modernisation strategy.  (A higher number than I would have expected).
• 39% think David Cameron should stay as leader but focus more on issues like crime and immigration.
• 8% agree that David Cameron should stand down as leader or be challenged.

IN SUMMARY: 48% WANT MUCH OF THE SAME AND 47% WANT SOME SORT OF CHANGE.

ConservativeHome columnist Stephan Shakespeare made the case for a change of strategy on Monday.  Today - in the best political defence of Project Cameron I have ever read - fellow columnist Louise Bagshawe urges no serious change at all in strategy or tactics.

More worrying for David Cameron is the finding that a majority of members (52%) now think that it is unlikely that he will be Prime Minister after the next election.  In January 2006 77% thought he would be in Downing Street.

1,655 people completed the survey by noon yesterday including 1,152 Tory members.

Comments

[Richard Tyndall]

I would be interested to know how those same numbers pan out from the people who listed themselves as supporters but not members.

[Traditional Tory]

The bad news is that a majority no longer expect David Cameron to be Prime Minister after the election.

No, that's the good news.

And here's a surprise for the Roons.

I want Cameron to stay on until the general election at which he and the whole wretched Bluelabour experiment will be comprehensively trashed.

After that it will be back to business with a leader (Hague? Davis? Graham Brady?) who can be trusted by us, the decent silent majority of true Tories.

Roll on Der Tag

[Bill]

I have been opposed to Cameron from the start.
In a perfect world he would be replaced immediately. The world isn't perfect and the party would probably be even more damaged by a change of his leadership instead of the status
quo. So I tend to sympathise with Trad Tory's view. Cameron must however change his style (should not be difficult for a former PR man, surely?) and beef up his substance otherwise "David Cameron's Conservatives" won't get this household's vote.

[TomTom]

The photograph in the Telegraph is odd...wearing a formal suit in Afghanistan ! Hasn't he heard of linen or seersucker - it makes him look very out of place

[Umbrella man]

Is it really appriopriate for you to say, Mr Editor, that 87% of members wanting Cameron to stay as Tory leader is "good news"?

[TomTom]

As for the poll Cameron has one option and that is to have a 'Hydra strategy' to have many heads forging ahead and let Conservatives look like a team rather than a one man show.

That means David Davis having a high profile and developing policy in his area....it means a figure like Redwood doing Econmics policy - Hague pushing the EU Referendum with his team.......it means getting Patrick Mercer back and developing Security.......

If Cameron makes himself Primus Inter Pares he would strengthen his team and public perception

[Ken Adams]

The calls for Cameron to change his style and revert to so called traditional conservative values are in my opinion wrong, because the die has already been cast. So when, we then lose the next election, very likely if Brown goes for a snap election either later this year or next spring. It will be those traditional values which will be blamed. The Conservative party really needs to decide exactly what it is, where it wants to go, what is important and most of all why it wants the power of government, and then start selling those ideas to the voters and really begin to oppose this government.

The party could start with creating serious bullet proof policies, if for instance they belive the Regional Policy is wrong then why only scrap the Regional Assemblies, why not the Regional Development Agencies as well? With half thought through policy, as we have just experienced, it is too easy for Brown to cut the ground from under Cameron’s, feet by offering the same i.e. neither Cameron’s nor Browns policies actually affect the real regional power base or the concept of EU interference at a regional level. If the ideas of EU interference below national level is the problem do something about that, if it is not a problem, then why remove the political oversight which is the affect of just scraping the Assemblies.

[David]

I put down that I no longer expected Cameron to be PM due to the behaviour of the party over the last few weeks, in spite of Cameron.I wonder how many others felt the same.

[Tapestry]

The Conservative party has a great leader - better than it knows. If the Party could encourage loyal followers, who fight on the points they want to fight over as regards policy without translating that into disloyalty to the leader, we would be twice the force that we are.

If labour are the Party of blame, we are going to become the Party of threat. Make the points we have to make without uttering the blood-curdling threats and we're home and dry.

What's the point of a Party without loyalty? Like Bill above - '...or David Cameron won't get this household's vote'. Why say it? You add little by such comments, damage us all and are typical of far too many.

It is you and the likes of you who are losing us the chance of victory. Just make your point, fine, and delete your petty threats. It's simple enough surely. United we stand etc

[TomTom]

If the Party could encourage loyal followers,

Followers is not the term but reflects a mentality. Cameron is not THE LEADER - he is the Coordinator of a Team but seems to lack team-management skills. It is a problem of prima donna jobs like PR or Barrister.....they never learn to involve other people in decisions or procedures.

The only hope of Cameron not imploding is to let Shadow Ministers develop their policies and draw their Labour opponents into studio debates and media exposure...it has to be one-on-one and not Cameron vs Brown.....

Make the issues sing and expose Labour Ministers to cross-examination in public

[Anonymous]

What a fool you are to ask an open site for views about the Conservatives. You'll get all sorts of people commenting according to their own agenda. The media then use the BAD aspects of any survey to the disadvantage of the Conservatives.

[Traditional Tory]

If labour are the Party of blame, we are going to become the Party of threat

Well that's a charming concept, Tapestry. I really think that will appeal to the electorate - NOT!

'Vote for us - or else'. Should we envisage scenes reminiscent of the day when voters in the Reich plebiscite had to run the gauntlet of stormtroopers chanting 'Vote for the Enabling Act'?

But perhaps you're right. Since the trashing of Ali Miraj the message is all too obvious. Dissenters will be stamped on like insects.

[Praguetory]

I like TomTom's 'Hydra strategy'. Just months ago, DC was told that he was more popular than his party (as any party leader should be) and so by his sycophants encouraged him centre stage on every piece of minituae. This was a transparently poor tactic as the more exposure the greater the risks. Also, it neglects the other excellent faces of Conservatism who should be developing the profile we need to be seen as a government in waiting.

If Howard had trusted more than 3 or 4 colleagues with airtime in 2005 I'm sure we would have done better. Surely that was a major lesson from that election.

[Tapestry]

Cameron is not THE LEADER - Tom-Tom.

has this site become a pantomime?

Oh yes he is.

Oh no he isn't.

I'm checking out. I think you need to ban a couple of continually negative people Tim.

[eugene]

87 % is massive showing and it is based on a large sample.

Perhaps anti-Cameron commentators should give it a rest because close to 90 % have spoken.

[Bill]

Eugene

Even I reluctantly voted for Cameron in the survey, not that IMO he deserves it. I will continue to criticise him as I see fit. And on the rare occasions I may feel he deserves praise, I'll do that as well.

[Old Hack]

We are in danger of painting ourselves into a corner here.

There's not much point in DC remaining Leader if he cannot win and its pretty contradictory to support the continuation of his leadership if it is perceived he will fail.

Bear in mind we don't have a mountain to climb to win the next election, this is more like a 30 mile yomp. There are a lot of winnable seats for us out there. The odds that we confronted in '01 and '05 have shifted and we as a party have to rise to the challenge.

That challenge may come sooner than we think!

It's clear DC faces a struggle but the man can and must win. We must support the uprooting of this Labour government. Anybody who thinks other wise is either not a Conservative (in which case piss off) or needs to reassess just what we are all doing here.

Personally I want to win, so irritated as I often am with the vanities and capriciousness of Team Cameron I think we can and must give the guy time and space to get back into the game and start scoring some points.

In that context perhaps its time to focus down on the forthcoming election a little more intently.

Less knavel gazing amongst ourselves, more objectivity and activity towards getting rid of Labour.

[GroundhogDay]

If I was a CEO of a multinational and 52% of my shareholders said that they expected me to fail - I would be sacked!

[Patriot]

Interesting spread of opinion, and it's going to continue this way until we start to vocalise the fears and aspirations of the majority of the electorate. I don't think that's happening now.

Yesterday I posted that I thought it was an error for DC to say that people should worry about family breakdown INSTEAD of the economy. Interestingly, in what I thought was by and large a balanced and sensible article, Stephen Glover has this to say in today's Mail:

""He(DC)also said that the issues of our 'broken society' were in many respects more important than the economy. Really? Of course our broken society is important, and the Tories are absolutely right to be addressing it. But I can tell Mr Cameron that an average family surviving on £40,000 a year is likely to be much more exercised by rising stealth taxes and higher mortgage payments than it is by the consequences of social breakdown. I can see that it may be tempting to think otherwise if one has a high income and inherited money.""

I didn't think I'd be alone in feeling that DC was wrong to say what he did. Stephen Glover's comments would seem to suggest that I was correct.

Whether intended or not this statement sends two clear messages. 1. That voters who are concerned about the economy are wrong (delusional?) and 2. that the economy is doing fine under Labour, thanks.

I would suggest that this is probably not what we should be doing at the moment.

I would also suggest that in sending this message, that folk should worry about family breakdown INSTEAD of the economy, DC has encapsulated why we have a problem.

I could, of course, be wrong.

Discuss.

[TomTom]

Cameron is not THE LEADER - Tom-Tom.

has this site become a pantomime?

Oh yes he is.

Oh no he isn't.

I have serious doubts about whether you are compos mentis Tapestry. I put those words in block capitals because the term THE LEADER translates as Il Duce or Der Fuehrer in other EU countries. British political parties do not have their LEADER as such but are organisations designed to produce Cabinet Government with a Prime Minister primus inter pares or inter stellas luna minores.

The fact is the cult of personality is destructive of political process and does Cameron no favours - put him against Brown as Brown wins; but develop a coordinated set of policies each propagated by the appropriate Shadow Minister and we are talking about a Government in Waiting rather than a boy band

[Traditional Tory]

Tapestry - I think you need to ban a couple of continually negative people Tim.

Here we go. Roon Gleichschaltung at its dictatorial worst.

If you can't beat 'em ban 'em, eh Tapestry?

[Carolyn]

We all expected the Brown Bounce. That is now receding. Why oh why do we have to knock ourselves and not highlight the failings of this government. Time to build not destroy. Remember John Major's comments re a certain faction. More interested in their own winges than winning an election and governing the country!Where are your priorities- selfishness or the greater good of Great Britain. Cameron is our best hope of achieving this in many a long year!

[Reagan Fan]

Editor,

You offered an "other" box on the stay as leader bit. I submitted one along the lines of:

"Cameron should stay as leader, accelerate his modernisation strategy and focus more on issues like crime and immigration."

I don't see the two as mutually incompatible.

Did any others say the same or similar?

[Fred Baker]

The Labour Party has managed to put the majority on benefits of some kind. Sir Keith Joseph’s (called the complete idiot by some teachers) reformations in education are still remembered to this day. Very few teachers in state schools are Tory supporters and their opinion eventually makes its way to the voting booth via their pupils. Labour has made the majority subservient to their form of government (steal and spend) and followed the example of Herbert Morrison who always built council houses in Tory areas.
They have succeeded in making the two party system unworkable. Our best bet is not to fight them but to join them and try to return to the fully monarchist system which served this country well, for not one but two millium.

[malcolm]

Tapestry,your post at 7.37 is spot on. I'm delighted that so few people wish to change leader at this stage in the cycle.Even if there were a likely successor (I don't think there is) it would be electoral suicide.That might please a few of the nutters on this site but would, I believe, be a tragedy for the country and a disaster for the party.
The events of the last few weeks have also made me of the opinion that we are much less likely to win the next GE than a few months ago.This has little to do with Brown who has performed pretty much as I expected (although I've been suprised at how easy the media have been on him)and more to do with the behaviour of some members of the party who have been to put it mildly self indulgent and also self defeating.

[Perdix]

This site, as a platform for dissent, has done much to damage the Conservative Party.

[Traditional Tory]

Why would those of us who want a decent and experienced Conservative to lead the party wish him to seize the poisoned chalice from the present empty suit at this stage in the game?

Cameroon Blulabour must be defeated, comprehensively, through the ballot box. A palace coup now would enable the Roons to claim - falsely - that they were robbed of certain victory by a Dolchstoß

If Cameron is dumped now the poisonous boil of Blulabour will never be effectively lanced.

[Andrew Woodman]

This is a heartening poll. At least members can see changing leader would be electorial suicude. The latter poll about being PM is only to be expected in the current climate. I voted don't know because I don't know if all this sniping from the outside will stop, which makes us look divided and unelectable.

[Old Hack]

Perdix, in politics the views of the common man do matter and in the Conservative Party the views of the membership are frequently regarded with fear, disdain or contempt by those at the centre.

The great thing about Con Home is that it helps keep the politicians on their toes. Tory or Labour, that's no bad thing.

Democracy, don't you love it!

[david]

Casting my memory back, when there was talk of a challenge to Ted Heath, about 80% of Conservative Party members when polled opposed it, they wanted to stick with Heath.

[Jake]

"Bear in mind we don't have a mountain to climb to win the next election, this is more like a 30 mile yomp. There are a lot of winnable seats for us out there. The odds that we confronted in '01 and '05 have shifted and we as a party have to rise to the challenge."

Yes . And a clearcut way to to capitalise on the Conservative party's position in England , which is the ONLY part of the UK which realy counts for them , is to declare for the prfoundly democratic idea of an Anglish Parliament within the British Union.
It is an idea whose time has come . Poll support for An EP is steadily rising - well into the 60% level ( even according to BBC poll which they supressed ) .

The Scots already have it .

Why not England .

The Conservatives should come out for this right now and give the idea time to ferment and crystallise . Time is important .

[Anon]

I have to ask again why you are asking questions such as this Ed? Part of the now not-so-hidden ConHome anti DC agenda?

Don't you realise that all you are doing is giving those opposed to DC a channel to publically air their views. You are also giving the national media a story / stories - very unhelpfully - and here was I thinking that ConHome was run by Conservatives who want to win the next GE?

Face it. David Cameron is leader of the party and will remain so. Over 60% of the members voted for him. That's it, end of story.

Now can we get on, stop wobbling about a couple of polls and start fighting our opponents - that'll be Labour and the Lib Dems.

[Miss Tooty]

Do we honestly want a front bench full of ex-Etonians. I for one do not.

[Seriously Concerned]

It’s going to be a long if not hot summer! What surprises me more than anything else is the fact that we seem to have been aware of the likelihood of the Brown bounce, but really had no strategy to deal with it.
Few posters here today appear willing to speculate seriously what will happen if we don’t get a majority at the next election. Let’s assume the worst for a moment, that Brown limps back with a Major size majority say 30-40 and the Lib dems win more seats largely at our expense. My greatest fear is that Brown will then offer the Lib dems a deal and the price will be PR. Does anyone seriously believe that Brown and Blair before him have been seducing Paddy and Ming just for fun?
The next election will be not just be about who governs this country but about the future of our electoral system. If Cameron doesn’t win the next election, he won’t juts be the fourth leader in succession to have done so, he will be the one who let PR in by the back door. Ah I hear you say the question is, would Brown support PR – well he and Donald Dewar has inflicted it on Scotland twice since 97 for no obvious reason: I rest my case.

[Al Hamilton]

This site, as a platform for dissent, has done much to damage the Conservative Party.

So why don't you b***** off Perdix? I hear there's a site called Platform 5 for people like you.

Pleased to see the CH poll on DC gets prominent billing in the Daily Telegraph. This is what democracy is all about.

[Anon]

Al Hamilton @ 10:17

You've just about summed up what one of the problems with this site is with comments such as that

[Reagan Fan]

"Do we honestly want a front bench full of ex-Etonians. I for one do not."

Well done Miss Tooty, another blithe reassertion of an anti-Cameron talking point spouted by Labour! Would you like to list the supposedly extensive Old Etonian Front Bench? Go on, there must be loads for it to spur on your inverted snobbery.

[JimJam]

We could rename this site Platform 20 - for the number of years in opposition we are going to face if we dont pull together.

[Tapestry]

Can we get a petition up to ban Traditional Tory. He clearly wishes to be banned democratically, rather than by edict of the powerful. So why not do as he requests?

I propose Traditional Tory be banned. Is there a seconder?

Of course he will merely alter his ID but if his IP is banned, it will make it harder to come back for a while at least.

It is not just the negatitivity of all of his comments - which appear to be motivated by destructiveness.

It is the all day, every day factor which makes it impossible for any constructive dialogue to get off the ground. We could do witha reak at least. How about a one month suspension?

[TOmTom]

This site, as a platform for dissent, has done much to damage the Conservative Party.

Posted by: Perdix | August 02, 2007 at 09:49

So why don't dissenters ike yourself Perdix go to Platform 10 ? It seems strange to impose yourself on a Blog and demand it conforms to your viewpoint.

You really must start to be tolerant and inclusive - it is regarded a sine qua non in modern democracy

[Anon]

Well said JimJam

[Dismayed]

Yougov for the Daily Telegraph in July 2003 when IDS was Leader.

Conservatives 37%
Labour 34%
Lib Dems 22%
Other 7%

See http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/OMI030101017_2.pdf

Much better than Dave now!

[William Norton]

Anon: I have to ask again why you are asking questions such as this Ed? Part of the now not-so-hidden ConHome anti DC agenda?
I think he's asking these questions in order to find out the answers. Equally irresponsible are all those trouble-making opinion pollsters who travel around the country giving people the opportunity to say they aren't going to vote Conservative.

Anon: Don't you realise that all you are doing is giving those opposed to DC a channel to publically air their views. You are also giving the national media a story / stories - very unhelpfully - and here was I thinking that ConHome was run by Conservatives who want to win the next GE?
Mr/Ms X, if you really think that's all ConHome achieves you really ought to try navigating the site a bit more. I'm not sure how either DC or the Conservative Party benefits from a succession of Saddam-style plebiscites shewing 99.99999% support. And something tells me that those cunning journalistic swine would uncover 'Top Tories against DC' even if ConHome didn't exist.

Anon:Face it. David Cameron is leader of the party and will remain so. Over 60% of the members voted for him. That's it, end of story.
Well, unfortunately it isn't the end of the story, as IDS could tell you. My own view is that if ConHome had been around earlier, IDS would have gone sooner, and a Good Thing too, but that's another matter. I could equally turn around to you, however, and say: "Face it. ConHome is a leading political blog and could well remain so." I don't especially like the Guardian but I wouldn't advise the Conservative Party to pretend it doesn't exist.

I find surveys like this fascinating, and I'd rather know the answers than ban people from asking the questions. I want DC to continue and to go on and win the next Election, he's frankly the only chance we've got - insulating him in cotton wool ain't going to get him there.

[Dismayed]

"My own view is that if ConHome had been around earlier, IDS would have gone sooner, and a Good Thing too, but that's another matter."

Look at the IDS polling above William. He was doing doing better than Dave is now.

If Con Home had been around in 2003, we could have defended IDS against back-stabbers such as Portilloo, Maude and the rest of the "modernisers".

[Traditional Tory]

I propose Traditional Tory be banned. Is there a seconder?

Don't worry, Tapestry, there will be a queue of anti free speech Roons ready to support you, with Malcolm at the head.

It is the all day, every day factor

Er..Pots and kettles come to mind.

The constant pro-Dave sycophancy would be bad enough without the totally barking 'Bilderberger Group' conspiracy nuttery.

BTW, ever heard of the Illuminati?

[Curly]

It is easy to talk oneself into a corner as panic sets in, yet we would do well to remember that the promised policy groups are due to report over the next few weeks, and that a summer campaign of attrition against the government has been promised. A few bad polls showing increased support for Gordo should not be sufficient to drive the Conservative Party into a wave of mass hysteria (the Scottish boor is probably laughing up his sleeve).

The local government elections last May were a real filip in most of England, even if some arue that they were a final kick in the nuts for Tony Blair, but electors chose to support the Conservative Party where it matters most, at the polls. Steady your nerves and trust that Cameron's decision to assert more authority and expect more dicipline and loyalty will strike the right notes.

Even if we face an election in October, that still leaves lots of time to recover our position.

[Reagan Fan]

"My own view is that if ConHome had been around earlier, IDS would have gone sooner" - priceless! You clearly don't know the relationship the Editor had with IDS do you?

"I want DC to continue and to go on and win the next Election, he's frankly the only chance we've got - insulating him in cotton wool ain't going to get him there." - true, but nor are deliberately formented public statements of dissent. I don't accuse you of this, by the way, rather I point the finger at those here who say they would rather see another Brown government than a Tory election win under Cameron.

[Tapestry]

IDS would have survived with blog support, as it is now helping Cameron by giving instant feedback that 87% want him to stay on.

If the media had the field to themselves still, they would have overpowered Cameron in the last two weeks, in the same way as they overpowered IDS. The blogs undercut the power of the media to dictate the course of events.

They also provide an outlet for those who are unloved and unloveable to come and dribble their bile.

I think that there should be a deselection procedure for bloggers as for MPs or Party Leaders. If enough fellow bloggers name a particular blogger their name should go to a vote. There should be a temporary ban of one month, or a permanent one. Or their contrib's should go to a filtering system which can screen out endlessly destructive blogging.

Or alternatively their comments could be accessed only by demand. You could click on a commenter's name or pass over it. Surely Typepead has some kind of system to limit destructive blogging.

[simon]

I was a Cameron fan at the beginning. The barnstorming conference speech, a promise to 'modernise' the Party, a general positive demeanour. Now, i'm thoroughly bored witless by him. He is rapidly showing poor old John Major's non-midas touch. DC has made stupid mistakes which were ALL avoidable( grammar schools, EPP u-turn, Africa over flooded England, The Great Satan ( Ken Clarke) on a policy review chair, a BAD choice of advisors, a botched reshuffle of the SCab). He has completely misread the Party's desire for change and appears more a LibDem than a Conservative. If GB calls a GenElec for October, let's face it, we are fook*d. Can DC turn things around? Doubtful....

[malcolm]

No Tapestry I don't think this site should go down the road of banning people for their opinions. Like you I find Trad Tory very irritating and have several times promised myself that I wouldn't rise to his usually moronic posts,sadly and pointlessly I break those promises every time!
In any case he uses multiple pseudonyms and would probably be back soon after being banned.I really do wonder if he's a Labour troll out to cause trouble or a neanderthal Tory of the kind I thought had died out years ago.

[Dismayed]

Tapestry is as ignorant about IT as he is about politics.

Anyone who has a dynamic IP address can get round "banning".

To change an IP address you

1. Turn the router off and then switch it on again.
2. Restart your computer.

You can then post again with a new IP address!

[Al Hamilton]

Following Tapestry's suggestion I'm going to nominate him for a ban on the grounds that his ravings constitute a cruel and unusual punishment inflicted on everybody else.

The endless rubbish he posts here is unbelievable. It's no wonder he hasn't the courage to do it under his own name.

[Chris Heathcote]

Some of the comments on here hoping, wishing, pleading Cameron to fail are criminally stupid. Get the message - for all your whining a massive majority of party members voted for Cameron to become leader and as this poll shows, a massive majority want him to continue. Accept that or go to Ukip/BNP/right-wing debating club where you belong because your outdated views are not wanted and will only spell disaster if they were listened to.

[john]

After the Miraj affair, we now have:
"Grassroots Tories fear Cameron has already lost election"
That's just the Telegraph reporting on ConHome's latest poll of its malcontents.
Want a negative story on the Tories hacks?
Tune in to ConservativeHome; they have one every day of the week.

[John Coles]

Mr Cameron is in thrall to the Conservative party's Old Guard. Calls for a change in policy emphasis or policy itself will have no effect on the thinking of Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd, John Gummer et al. Until these political failures of yesteryear finally leave the scene, the Conservative party is fated to espouse left-of-centre policies, leading to inevitable defeat at the next General Election. The survey shows that those taking part sense just such an outcome.

[Matt Wright]

I think the greater worry is anonymous posting which is making the blogosphere unaccountable which is not good at all for democracy. If Trad Tory had the guts to post under his real name then we would know the truth about what he is upto. However he hasnt got the guts to put his name to what he says. I just ignore him now.

Matt

[Tapestry]

malcolm, OK.

dismayed, ignorance is bliss. no wonder i'm so happy. no easy way to do it then. OK.

al hamilton. i use a pseudonym as i keep my own name for my professional life, otherwise it takes weeks to find the references i need in search engines. if you really want to find out who i am go to my blog.

[Bloody Minded]

"for all your whining a massive majority of party members voted for Cameron to become leader"

That was then. This is now.

Anyway, the opinion of the "majority" is worth no more than the sum total of the individuals holding said opinion. Some of them may be idiots.

It is what is RIGHT that counts and what is right now is to get rid of Cameron.

[Tapestry]

Tim, why not do what Iain Dale has done and only allow registered commenters? 'Real' names might be false, but if all posters have to provide a link to a blog or website where their ID is known, the anonymous destroyers are filtered out. Iain's blog has much improved since he banned anonymous posting.

[Al Hamilton]

"'Top Hat' became 'topper' then'tapper' then 'tapestry' then 'teapastry' then 'tapestory' and so on. So when I started blogging in 2006 due to illhealth and having to stop work, I went back and used one of my old ID's."

Nice Pic. A lot of stuff about all your fantastic work for UKIP

Can't find your name anywhere.

[dafberad]

'Some of the comments on here hoping, wishing, pleading Cameron to fail are criminally stupid. Get the message - for all your whining a massive majority of party members voted for Cameron to become leader and as this poll shows, a massive majority want him to continue. Accept that or go to Ukip/BNP/right-wing debating club where you belong because your outdated views are not wanted and will only spell disaster if they were listened to. '

Half want a change in strategy, and a tenth want him gone. It is still early days, when he has been behind in the polls for months tory party members will not be quite so forgiving.

[Gunney]

I resigned from the Party because of Cameron that's just how strongly I feel but I hanker to be a member once more but only when the Party becomes a 'Conservative' Party once again.
Cameron in my eyes is a shallow, egotistical fool of the first order and is destroying Conservatism which in turn is allowing New Labour to systematically destroy the United Kingdom.

[William Norton]

Reagan Fan/Tapestry: perhaps I could have explained my IDS remark more fully. It's slightly off-thread but under IDS we had 2 yrs of back-biting and squabbling among the MPs until the Brent East by-election persuaded enough of them to submit a no confidence motion.

Had a hypothetical equivalent ConHome (2001) been in existence (which we'll assume would not have been edited by Tim, but otherwise broadly the same) its monthly surveys would probably have shewn higher personal support for the leader but also consistently higher levels of doubt about strategy, 'communication', GE prospects etc, and the critical articles by outside contributors would have been even harder, from more prominent individuals and far better thought-through. My guess in those circumstances is that the dissident MPs would have been encouraged to send in their resolution earlier. But in the end it really doesn't matter one way or the other and arguing this question is about as pointless as the old long-running dispute about whether polling was better under IDS. We are where we are.

One advantage of the ConHome survey is that it is clear, notwithstanding the Trad T element who do so much to brighten up everyone's day, there is simply no mandate for chopping DC and considering his change agenda he's getting really quite good support. I can't believe you'd have got the same results 4/5 yrs ago, and it helps put some of the more excitable critics of DC into context.

There's nothing to be gained by bashing either DC or ConHome.

[John Ionides]

Certainly I feel that the gist of what Cameron is trying to do is correct, but he is articulating his ideas singularly badly. As a result, all the fine thinking that is coming out of the policy groups and elsewhere is being lost on the general population. For instance, some of the very interesting ideas that Willetts put forward on schools (which IMHO could really improve the system) was drowned by discussion over the role of Grammar Schools.

I do not think that people are concerned about "occupying the centre ground" or a "lurch to the right". In the current political climate people cannot tell what these statements mean to them. What voters need to know is what a Conservative government would mean for them, and this is what we have not been telling them clearly enough.

There is also too much self-awareness, and too much strategy speak leaking out to the media. We don't need to know whether Dave's advisors think he ought to present himself as more serious in order to counter Brown's percieved gravitas. Personally, I prefer people to be themselves and I suspect quite a few others share my view. But if, for very understandable reasons, Dave wants to control his image then we should see the result, not the underlying thinking.

Similarly, putting Cameron's name of the voting papers might do well in a blind test but does not seem quite so sensible when other parties are emphasising his self-awareness.

So, the direction is right but can we tighten up the execution please.

[Edison Smith]

Thanks to ConservativeHome, Cameron's trip to Afghanistan has been overshadowed by more 'Tory disarray' stories in the Telegraph this morning.

Tell me, do the Telegraph pay you to pre-release the poll in their paper? They then twist it into being a scientific poll of the entire membership of the party - when people who aren't even Conservative members can pretend to be so.

[Tapestry]

William Norton, you may recall that IDS was doing well until the Party Conference in October 2003 with rising levels of support. Then crash bang wallop - all holy hell broke loose in all media in an unrelenting coordinated assassination campaign. Betsygate, Michael Crick, Newsnight, lies and so on.

Even after two weeks of the above, IDS only lost the leadership by 8 MPs' votes. Had there been blogs, the voices from the pro-IDS camp would have had a forum. There was literally nowhere in the public domain for IDS to defend himself at that time, or for his supporters to get their views aired.

Had there been blogs, the media would not have had it all their own way. It was thankfully the high water mark of media power, which will never be the same again now bloggers are on hand to point out who's lying and what about.

The Gilligan affair also in 2003 where the media tried to resist the government and paid heavily, showed that the whole media/government game had got completely out of hand.

In 2007 the blogs have arrived and can stop untruths from proceeding so far. Who knows? I doubt we would be in Iraq now if blogs had been available to point out what Blair and Campbell were up to, in time.

But as regards IDS, no I think with blogs he would have made it. Blair would have struggled to win in 2005, and the Constitution would be being rejected in Britain as we speak.

His popularity is not understandable to many, but he was respected for having beliefs and caring. The public recognised these qualities and wanted them. Sadly the power of the media crushed it all before it could get in place.

Much of Cameron's approach can be explained by seeing what the power of the media can do to crush a political leader. The media have just attempted an assassination campaign on Cameron like the one they launched on IDS in 2003.

But this time it got nowehere - partly becasue Cameron can handle media well but also much of it will be down to bloggers. The media know they cannot pull too many lies without getting spotted immediately.

[davidk]

Malcolm

I think there can be no doubt that Trad Tory is a Labour troll - only can today has he called for a Brown victory at the next election.

He repeatedly states he wants the conservative party comprehensively beaten. Everything he writes should be read in that context.

But of course he should be free to be Brown's voice on this site.

[Blue Guerilla]

Even if Cameron were to lose the next election, he should stay on and fight another!

[OneNationTory]

Winston Churchill’s words on leadership are apt:

"An accepted leader has only to be sure of what it is best to do, or at least to have made up his mind . . . The loyalties which centre upon number one are enormous. If he trips, he must be sustained. If he makes mistakes, they must be covered. If he sleeps, he must not be wantonly disturbed. If he is no good he must be poleaxed. But this last extreme process cannot be carried out every day; and certainly not in the days just after he has been chosen."

The poll suggests DC cannot bring us victory, so the question arises is it time to poleaxe him? Well, he’s had over a year to prove himself and he’s been found wanting: lightweight, has failed to take on Blair (DC’s applause for Tony at the last PMQs were vomit inducing), has failed to pin Blair’s legacy on Brown. The first duty of Her Majesty’s Opposition is to critique the government and DC is not doing this effectively. If he cannot win, he is no good and so he must be …..

Let’s face it, the party made a mistake in choosing DC over DD. We need someone less flashy and more substantial because that’s what the country needs. DD has shown he is better than anyone at skewering Labour ministers. The job should be his. The time for the men in grey suits to pay DC a visit is fast approaching.

[Simon Denis]

These figures are no surprise to me. I don't want Cameron to step down now, but only because it would be even more of a disaster than if he were to stay on. His staying on will be a disaster too, make no mistake. Everything that has been said in his favour is an overstatement. He is not good looking, he is pleasant enough. He is not eloquent, he is merely fluent. He is not broad minded, he is a moral coward. He will be butter before the blast furnace of Brown's socialist indignation. Only those with fire of their own - capitalist, nationalist fire - can possibly stand up to Brown's monster self-righteousness. Anyone who thinks this unattractive characteristic can't be effective at election time doesn't understand mass politics. It is a filthy business for larger than life characters, not a career for decent chaps. They come in when the monsters have done the fighting.

[Adrian Sherman]

Well, I was one of the 13% who wants Eton Dave to step down or be challenged by a real Tory.

My main point is however, the internet has changed things rapidly. Personally, I think that 'Conservative Home' has peaked and the main outlets are now things like Facebook (plenty of anti Cameron groups on there!) or Myspace. Folks can set up blogs at the drop of a hat.

If some 'Tory' sycophants reckon that this website is going to save 'Dave', they are about 2 years out of date. Media is now very fragmented and diffuse.

[Dismayed]

The days of stalking horse candidates, like Sir Anthony Meyer, challenging Conservative leaders are gone. MPs must demand a vote of confidence and then vote to remove the Leader. DC's poll ratings are worse than IDS's so such a vote is possible.

[MrB]

Well, unsurprisingly there's no story on BBC news of "Tory members rally behind Cameron in new poll", yet we have several stories on irrelevent "Top Tories" like Saatchi and Ali Miraj criticising him.

[Anon]

I am asking the question why ConHome repeatedly asks questions in the manner in does. If the editors of ConHome are truly Conservative and want a Conservative victory at the next election you would have thought they could ask questions in a slightly more helpful manner and then not report the results in the manner in which they do, aiding lazy journalists who can grab a quick headline from this website. That is not 'ConHome' bashing, it's asking a question of why they do what they do in the way they do it.

Example - survey results are reported as results of the membership. Not everyone who fills in their questionnaires is a party member and many members who read this site (like me) never fill in their surveys so their surveys are, in fact, a waste of time as the results are completely skewed.

Example - highlighting any story that criticises DC in any way whatsoever

Example - not highlighting complimentary DC stories

And before you ask, no I don't have time to backtrack through this site and find specific examples - I have a job. But more and more people are beginning to question the bias nature of this site.

And before the comments start, yes, I do support the leadership but had DD won I would never have written any disparaging comments about him. It's called party discipline.

There's nothing wrong with 'constructive' criticism. It's just that some of the comments here are anything but constructive!

[David]

"DC's poll ratings are worse than IDS's"

Not really. You can pretty much spot when Cameron was elected leader.....

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005/

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/

[Dismayed]

David, in July 2003, MORI and Yougov (who got the 2005 result right) have IDS a poll lead of 3%. Populus and ICM appeared to have a Labour bias in their methodology right at that time. Check your first link if you don't believe.

The "modernisers" (i.e. wets) did not want IDS as PM so trumped up the Betsygate nonsense to undermine him. Their behaviour at Blackpool in 2003 was a disgrace. What goes around comes around!

[Jessica Salter]

All very strange - I don't know anybody who admits to supporting Labour (predictable) and have met very few while out canvassing - however I do know men who are impressed with Gordon Brown's glorious impression of a serious, macho 'leader', while women are pretty disgusted with the current bout of Cameron bashing. Methinks there is something quite primeval going on here!

[David]

"David, in July 2003, MORI and Yougov (who got the 2005 result right) have IDS a poll lead of 3%"

One month with a lead within the margin of error? Oh dear......

[Reagan Fan]

Interesting piece from the American Spectator blog yesterday, with some very prescient comment for certain posters here...

http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=11811

Listen to Goldwater
By Quin Hillyer
Published 8/1/2007 12:08:59 AM

At the 1960 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Barry Goldwater famously told conservatives to "grow up." It's time we hear that message again.

As in 1960, the conservative movement seems grumbling, disaffected, even downright angry -- and, most importantly, it sometimes seems more interested in complaining and moaning than in uniting, constructively, to achieve political success.

What's worse is that we seem to be fighting among ourselves. Every chance we get, we take shots at other conservatives. Nobody, it seems, is good enough. We moan that nobody is another Reagan. Nobody is another Churchill. Nobody is another Washington.

To which we ought to say, so what? There's only one Second Coming, and He isn't running for anything.

It's time we look at the good things we've got -- and the good people, and the good times. Take stock of those goods, and celebrate them, and consolidate them in an attractive way, and build, build, build upon them.

[Scotty]

Interesting figures from this months survey which will be very heartening for David Cameron.

I disagree with the view that the figures on his likelihood of being PM are more worrying for him. As someone has already pointed out in this thread I think Conservative members are questioning the ability of the PARTY to screw it up in their answer to the question.
The Brown honeymoon bounce in the polls and a torrid few weeks in the media for us and it is not surprising to see this result any more than it is to understand why. In fact I bet over the last 18 months the figures have ebbed and flowed a bit in unison with the national polls.
There has definitely been a real change in the mood of the party which I think is more seismic than some on here or in the media realise. Commentators for 18 months have been muttering about Cameron needing a clause 4 moment with his party, but I think that without anyone realising it the Party has decided to have its own one with the dissenters.
The media have been extremely lazy in their reporting and the assumptions they have made. They know the script off by heart, but this time I think they have either not done their job properly or are deliberately ignoring this sea change in favour of a bridge with the new gang in No10.
Interesting times ahead.

[ToMTom]

Tim, why not do what Iain Dale has done

Yes he lost 33% his readership....that will have an impact on his adveryising banners.....it's Iain Dale that loses out and new blogs will supplant him

[Traditional Tory]

The Brown honeymoon bounce in the polls

This could turn out to be the longest honeymoon in history.

The alternative interpretation, of course, is that we have returned to 'default position' following the death of the Cameron bounce.

[Raj]

Isn't it interesting that people like "Traditional Tory" are still in denial that they are the minority, despite the fact that only 8% of recipients wanted him to go.

I guess this is one problem with the Tory Party. Many of those that are doing their best to undermine Cameron can't accept they don't have majority support for their behaviour. So if he really does go because of their pressure, it will lead to even more in-fighting and bitterness because the majority will see their man go because of the actions of a minority.

If you thought the last few weeks were bad, the scenario Traditional Tory is hoping for would be 10 times as worse.

[TomTom]

Isn't it interesting that people like "Traditional Tory" are still in denial that they are the minority, despite the fact that only 8% of recipients wanted him to go.

Before you get carried away Raj try thinking with subordinate clauses.

Proposing to remove Cameron presents a problem. The same buffoons who voted him in with 70% support would have to be tasked with doing it all over again.

The Conservative Party has a terrible record on electing leaders in recent years and the electorate has noticed.

Voting in a poll not to eject Cameron from the seat he has made very hot for himself is simply saying - he made his bed, let him lie on it.

He is stuck and noone will liberate him from responsiility for the next election - so if he is wise he should start campaigning now and send out his Shadow Ministers to start acting like grouse-beaters and get some Cabinet Ministers to shoot down

Only this will restore any credibility and it is what his task is in essence

[Raj]

ToMTom

Yes he lost 33% his readership....that will have an impact on his adveryising banners.....it's Iain Dale that loses out and new blogs will supplant him

So you're saying that Tim should put advertising above cleaning the blog up? You're essentially supporting bribery, in that the site allows people to post destructive comments because they generate money for it.

But he doesn't have to go that far if he really can't stand registration. He could easily have a posting system where no comments were posted until they were approved - and if destructive comments were siphoned off that would help.

[Raj]

Voting in a poll not to eject Cameron from the seat he has made very hot for himself is simply saying - he made his bed, let him lie on it.

Or maybe the seat has been made hot by the minority of malcontents who haven't just tried to put a monkey-wrench in the works, but the whole tool-box.

Certainly I wouldn't say that every person who voted for him to stay did so because they love everything he's doing, but it still shows a strong majority would prefer to unite behind the leader rather than kick him out. I doubt they voted to keep him so they could scream and beat their chests some more.

[Traditional Tory]

Isn't it interesting that people like "Traditional Tory" are still in denial that they are the minority, despite the fact that only 8% of recipients wanted him to go.

If you bothered to read my posts you will see that I want Cameron to stay. It would be madness to pass the poisoned chalice onto a decent leader before the General Election.

The figure that really counts is the one that shows Tory confidence in Cameron has plummetted.

[Reagan Fan]

ToMTom,
You manipulate the Iain Dale 33% comment and come dangerously close to lying in doing so (something I'm sure you'd hate to have done and will no doubt be grateful for this clarification). As you probably know full well the 33% drop was something which occurred when Iain stopped posting so frequently because he was out of the country and unable to do so, it was not entirely related to registration but mostly to do with lack of author content. It was temporary. To quote from Iain's own words:

"Despite the falloff in traffic over the last week (because of my trip to Rwanda and preventing people from commenting anonymously) July was a record month, with 235,139 unique visitors (previous best 231,901) and 409,499 pageloads."

[Yogi]

I think that the Conservative Party members are already resigned to another term of hard labour because Brown will call an election in October. There is no time to replace the head in the sand front bench.

Unfortunately the aspiring PPCs and some of the MPs in marginal constituencies are the ones who will suffer at the hands of the electorate.
This brings an interesting argument. If you elect someone who has a very safe seat as the Party Leader, there is no need for him or her to really want to win power - no fire in the belly because even during a meltdown he/she will retain the seat.
If you elect a marginal seat MP as leader, he will have more fire and determination and will have his ear to the ground and know aht the C1s and C2s are thinking.

Cameron should cancel his holidays, sack the spin doctors and listen to the rank and file. Time is running out.

[Annabel Herriott]

I will play Devils Advocate now. Posters have suggested that we dont win the next election. OK, lets think about that.
We get a hardy bunch of marginals into Parliament anyway, which will then be hung.
The economy does a bit of a nose dive, and all Gordo's errors of judgment over the last 10 years come back to him in the form of chickens returning and depositing all their ordure over his head.
Gordo struggles on for 18 months, his true tyranny ( he IS a tyrant) becoming all too obvious.
He is forced to return to the country, Tories under DC win big time, and stay in power for years.
I said it was Devil's Advocacy!!!

[Traditional Tory]

I said it was Devil's Advocacy!!!

More like adventures in fairyland.

By what mechanism is Brown going to be 'forced' to return to the country?

[TomTom]

So you're saying that Tim should put advertising above cleaning the blog up? You're essentially supporting bribery,

I am a Capitalist - I buy newspapers with advertising. You Raj....or so so very pure.

[TomTom]

He could easily have a posting system where no comments were posted until they were approved

That is exactly how the site functioned until he went to Rwanda

[TomTom]

ToMTom,
You manipulate the Iain Dale 33% comment and come dangerously close to lying in doing so

As you probably know full well the 33% drop was something which occurred when Iain stopped posting so frequently because he was out of the country and unable to do so, it was not entirely related to registration

GO ahead...accuse me of mendacity...no reason to hedge....but then reflect on your comment it was not entirely due to registration

35.5% hits in July came from 3 sites with Guido Fawkes and Political Betting being ahead of this one....the other 42 sites bring in less than 1.6% each.

Iain has personal reasons for screening out abuse most of which we never see displayed anyway. If it ever gets known he used the registration system to eradicate opinions different from his own - as no doubt you and Tapestry would prefer - his site would implode

[TomTom]

Posters have suggested that we dont win the next election.

Actually Annabel.....go through the newspapers - poll last week only 18% VOTERS believed the Conservatives would win

Trevor Kavanagh wrote in The Spectator Conservatives would be defeated

Electoral Calculus shows an 84-seat Labour Majority

[Cleo]

A few bad opinion polls and a majority of members think Cameron will not win the next election? Probably the same people who want there to be a rightwards change of direction. Of course the next election will be very difficult for the Conservatives to win but campaigning on the issues that matter and not on Europe will help.

[Patriot]

Cleo - I'd be interested to hear what, in your view, are the top 4 issues we should be campaigning on.

[Cleo]

Patriot- in my view the top 4 issues would be: schools, NHS, environment, crime.

[Perdix]

Labour bloggers are already gloating over the air of despair on ConHome. This site does no favours for the Consevative Party. Those who want to win need to ask what they can do for their Party!

[Annabel Herriott]

Brown would be forced to go b ack to the country the same way as other PMs did when unable to get any legislation through because he had no majority. Keep up do T.T.