Two reasons to be cautious about an autumn poll

I'm pretty worried that Gordon Brown might call an autumn poll but here are two good reasons why there might not be a September/ October election:

1. The SNP are doing well in Scotland.  A YouGov poll reported by the Scotsman notes that the SNP are doing better today than in May when they became the largest party at Holyrood.
2. Labour didn't do that brilliantly last Thursday.  That's not my view but that's the verdict of Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com.  His post is well worth a read.

PS While referring to Scotland there was an interesting article in yesterday's Scotsman about the Tories by Peter Jones.  Here are two key sections from his article:

"Goldie, with her justice spokesman, Bill Aitken, was in First Minister Alex Salmond's office within days of the election to put the Tories' argument for the agenda in the battle against drugs addiction to move much more firmly towards rehabilitation. Those points have been accepted by the SNP. Aitken has similarly made proposals about the handling of sexual offenders. Again, they have been generally accepted by the SNP.  This is enormous progress. From being the untouchables of Scottish politics, the Tories are now again acceptable citizens. It means that the MSPs now have real political purpose to their work, being able to make real achievements rather than just hoping to get the odd mention in the newspapers.

Much more is likely to come. Apart from the justice agenda, where there is considerable agreement between the Tories and the SNP manifestos, there is also much similarity between their thoughts on business rates (big cuts for small firms) and on the need for Scottish Enterprise to be slimmed down and reshaped...

One other sign of the Tories' return is worth mentioning, and that is the election of a Conservative MSP, Alex Fergusson, as the parliament's Presiding Officer. This may not look politically significant, since he has to divest himself of political trappings. But I recall listening to a ferocious argument between two Labour MPs over who should succeed Betty Boothroyd as Speaker of the House of Commons - Michael Martin, a Labour MP, or Sir George Young, a Tory.

Never forget, said one vehemently anti-Young MP, that Boothroyd's deft handling of the job had helped to convince a dubious electorate that Labour could handle big public offices. Did George Reid, while impeccably impartial, do that job for the SNP? And might Fergusson also do it for the Tories?"

Scottish Chairman Peter Duncan resigned today.  BBC Online has the story.  Let us hope that this opportunity will be used for a reorganisation of the Conservative operation in Scotland and the appointment of a full-time CEO-type figure.

T

Comments

[Ken Stevens]

"Let us hope that this opportunity will be used for a reorganisation of the Conservative operation in Scotland"

Let us also hope that, whether from a Scottish or English perspective, the Tories will formulate a practicable policy on the constitutional aspects.

The pressure for a referendum on independence won't go away; nor will the West Lothian Question.

[Andrew Lilico]

What is all this nonsense about an Autumn poll? When was the last time there was a General Election called two and a half years into a Parliament by a government with a secure majority? What possible reason could Gordon Brown offer to the Queen in his request for a dissolution?

I'm sorry if time proves me wrong, but for the moment I think that the threads opened on this question and the subsequent discussions are just a waste of space - my own indisputably-correct contributions aside, naturally :-)

[Scotty]

Tim, on the chances of an Autumn election I would not bet on events or Gordon Brown's caution preventing it, but equally if the polls continue as there are it is a real possibility and we have to be prepared.
I think it would be Brown's best ever chance of an outright majority before he really gets his feet under the table and staleness sets in.
It is also the main reason I have been so vocal about the whole Conservative party getting its act together in preparation, and that means giving Labour, the Libdems and the media no ammunition with stories about infighting within the party. Another bout of inward thinking naval gazing is a luxury we can't afford.
Those that complain about Cameron better understand that what ever their views if they continue to malign him in this way they don't just hurt him as a leader but they damage our electoral chances as a party. Labour got back into power after 4 election defeats, but with the numbers we have we are still doing worse than Labour under Foot in the early 80's and that is an often forgotten fact. I feel so strongly about this that I think that anyone within the party that takes pleasure from damaging stories or tries to undermine Cameron now does not have the best interests of the party at heart.

Annabel Goldie and her team are doing well, what was interesting and something I picked up watching her and Salmond during the campaign and in the early weeks of the new parliament. They seem to like each other and I think that she got the tone right during the campaign because she understood her party's position within the political landscape, she has come out better and stronger because of it and the Libdems, well they seem to have gone into hibernation.

[Will]

Scotty - I think many of the posts on here have been reponding to mistakes made by Cameron - chosing to bring up the issue of Grammar schools, going to Rwanda during the floods, promoting Tony Litt as a winner etc.

I don't take pleasure in these errors but sometimes comment on them so hopefully there will be a change, so we can improve from the Michael Howard levels of support we currently have.

This site is sometimes quoted in the press, but usually the editorial is worse. The best interests of the party are not always served by agreeing with the path chosen by Steve Hilton. Some of us want to win and following the Blair stategy pre-1997 won't work post-Blair, the country has moved on.

[Sack Mundell]

We should be getting rid of that Lib Dem imposter Mundell. He was responsible for the Dunfermline by-election disaster. Ms Ruxton was a disastrous imposed candidate like Tony "look at me with Blair" Lit. Mundell is despised by MSPs and activists. Deselect him!

[Scotty]

"Some of us want to win and following the Blair stategy pre-1997 won't work post-Blair, the country has moved on."
Will, with all due respect I think you miss the point. Labour have been working the same formula since Blair and Brown teamed up pre 97', in fact if you can't see that one of the main architects of the New Labour project is very successfully implementing a well worn strategy against electorate and the Conservative party in the last few weeks then you have underestimated Brown.
He wants to be the change after Blair not Cameron and it is going to take a bucketful of successful spin considering he has controlled domestic policy, that and the Conservative party turning on yet another leader publicly. Sorry to be blunt, but Brown is banking on us criticising our leader and not him.

[Will]

Scotty - "Sorry to be blunt, but Brown is banking on us criticising our leader and not him. "

I am working in my constituency as hard as anyone bashing Brown, and I fully understand Brown is trying to do a John Major and appear as 'the change'.

What is not helping is Cameron's mistakes not some troll's comments here. Cameron needs to get a grip, and I don't see how apologists for incompetence like yourself feel that you are helping that cause.

You might be closer to those that defended Michael Foot or IDS, don't keep following a path because you are being led in that direction - consider if the leader knows the way. Polls very poor, so how do we improve.

[Didactophobe]

The article in the Scotsman is interesting indeed. For 20 years since Alex Salmond was first elected, the SNP has positioned itself as a left-wing party. Yet, when you look at the political map of Scotland, you see the SNP having annexed vast swathes of former Tory territory in the Highlands and down the east coast. They won enough seats in the Labour-dominated central belt to take control at Holyrood, but only just.

Alex Salmond is smart enough to know that you can have an independent Scotland or a socialist one, but not both. Cooperation with the Tories is the only way forward for the SNP.

David Mundell's infamous memo was understandably attacked as disloyal, but it was also largely true. Notwithstanding that, Peter Duncan saved the Scottish Tories from annihilation in 2001 by winning Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, and they should be thankful for that. Two successive elections with no Tory MPs in Scotland would have been the end of the Scottish Conservative Party.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Labour vote always falls in safe seats, even during the height of unpopularity of the Major years and the 2 years after the 1997 General Election this happened, so actually it was something of a success for them - in mid term they held seats that in past years the Liberal Democrats would have snapped up in by-elections, they will have every reason to suppose that at the 2009 General Election that the Sedgefield and the Ealing Southall majorities will be back up, even possibly increased.

So far as an Autumn General Election goes - Clement Attlee, Harold Wilson and Edward Heath all tried them - Since WWII the only really successful one was the 1966 General Election where Labour won a 98 seat majority, the October 1974 election gave Labour a tiny majority, but against a discredited leader and the Conservative Party then in turmoil they would have expected much more; In 1951 Labour won it's largest ever vote by any standards, but the Conservative Party did still manage just to get a majority of 16 despite having alightly fewer votes than Labour; The 1970 and February 1974 General Elections were disasters for the parties calling them although both times the incumbent was hailed by the press as heading for victory. Since WWII the strategy of cutting and running only worked against Edward Heath and only 2 times out of 3 of those.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Labour vote always falls in safe seats
During by-elections that is!

[johnC]

'the only really successful one was the 1966 General Election '

Perhaps it was successful because it was actually held on 31st March.

[Scotty]

"What is not helping is Cameron's mistakes not some troll's comments here. Cameron needs to get a grip, and I don't see how apologists for incompetence like yourself feel that you are helping that cause."

Will, if you squabble in public the press tend to report it and some of the conjecture then becomes fact. There is a very good reason why you don't find this level of vitriol being displayed towards leaders so monotonously regularly from either the Labour party or the Libdems especially so near a possible GE. I think the fact you would defend the trolls but criticise someone who thinks discipline and loyalty are an absolute requirement at this time says it all.

"For 20 years since Alex Salmond was first elected, the SNP has positioned itself as a left-wing party. Yet, when you look at the political map of Scotland, you see the SNP having annexed vast swathes of former Tory territory in the Highlands and down the east coast."

Like the Conservatives the SNP is a very broad church and anyone who thinks that they are ALL left wing would be wrong. There is a strong but small right wing grouping in the party and they just happen to be in the minority at this time.
The SNP have often in the past been called the "the tartan tories", although very rarely hear that nickname these days.

[Yet Another Anon]

Perhaps it was successful because it was actually held on 31st March
More likely it was successful because most people didn't like Edward Heath much and they hadn't gone off Harold Wilson yet.

[Ken Stevens]

Have a look at Daily Telegraph comments section on "Who would win an autumn general election and why?"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=WFZBMNA4OHXU1QFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?view=BLOGDETAIL&grid=F11&blog=yourview&xml=/news/2007/07/27/view27.xml

Listen to Frank Field's advice today re EU referendum (and of course recruit him as shadow social services minister!

And if you want another headline grabber, abolish IHT on main residence.

[Scott]

Yet another sign of the natural link between modern nationalism and conservatism.