Summer campaign to "keep the heat" on Brown

George Osborne is to announce a campaign against Gordon Brown in case there is an election in the autumn:

"With Westminster gripped by speculation that the Prime Minister is considering a snap election to take advantage of a "bounce" in the opinion polls, the Conservatives are planning to go on the attack. George Osborne, the shadow chancellor and Tory election co-ordinator, said last night the party intended to show Mr Brown that they were ready for an early election. "We intend to take the fight to Labour and show that we have the money to campaign hard. We are going to keep the summer heat on Brown," he said. Tory strategists hope their campaign will check Mr Brown's rise in the polls and dampen Labour's enthusiasm for an early election by showing that a well-financed Conservative Party can mount a hard-hitting campaign."

An election in the autumn is seen as increasingly likely in Westminster. At least one Conservative MP has cancelled their September holiday because of the prospect of an election in that month and a few Shadow Cabinet members are privately convinced of it.

Conventional wisdom is that an early election favours the incumbent as MPs, unlike their opposing candidates, already have a profile in the constituency. The Party's "war book" is already thick however, and it is clearly up to the challenge should Brown take the risk.

Deputy Editor

Comments

[David West]

If an election is called for October, the Party must move to another level. Brown has made a confident start and should not be underestimated. I fear that an Autumn election would not serve the Conservative Party well.

[Oberon Houston]

I think Brown would be mad to wait any longer than he has to. The rather unsucessful overtures towards the libDems prove to me he is thinking seriously about it. The timing does not suit Camerons strategy at all, and he needs to be ready to rush out a manifesto soon. If there is no election this year fine, if there is we need to be ready.

[Tapestry]

Two newspaper reports giving Brown 7% which was from a single deduced non-voting intention poll, is hardly a cause for panic. If they are having to base all their optimism on that, heaven help them.

The report from Stephan Shakespeare that Murdoch is making moves against Cameron is serious, though. Cameron standing up for the country's survival by insisting on a referendum on the Constitution is going to bring a ton of bricks down on his head.

If Brown is sufficiently stupid to go for a September campaign, Cameron will base his pitch on the Referendum for the EU Constitution, which Brown has made it quite clear he will not back down about.

If Brown calls for September, get ready for power. The electorate will not approve of the Constitution. It will be like Ted Heath going to the country to defeat the miners. Brits will not vote for subjugation in the USER. Union of Subservient European Regions.

[Tapestry]

Oh yes. Rushcliffe. Please deselect Ken Clarke. He will be an embarrassmnet in the coming battle of Britain.

[malcolm]

I too think Brown will go as soon as he can. I'm glad that the party appears to realise this and are preparing.I hope if we do attack Brown over the summer we do so on the basis of our own ideas and that there is no repeat of us being the true 'heirs to Blair'.

[George Hinton]

Well Osborne will have plenty to attack Brown on. As Chancellor and Chief Purse String puller, nothing happened whilst B-Liar was PM without Brown's say-so, so the last 10 years are a free fire zone.

I see we now have the new spin on the NHS, particularly with Scarborough, that the old inefficient ways and Trusts have been changed. Tell that to the 600 being made redundant and the local burghers who will see their medical care go down the drain.

One hopes that Osborn and his ilk will resemble a ravening pack of killer wolves whilst attacking the Labour carcass. The opportunities are boundless, the results demanding.

Osborn should also be looking to bounce Brown into a referendum and should refer to any chance of an early election as a referendum, a cance for choice regarding Europe. That means shutting prats like Ken Clarke and his Europhile mates up or distancing them from mainstream Conservatism. Perhaps Ken could jump ship and join Ming?

[mark]

"The electorate will not approve of the Constitution".

The election will not hinge on the constitution issue, it is far to complicated for the average man to understand. What Labour will do is sound tough on a few emotive issues such as immigration and the benefits culture and play down the crime figures as a lack of perception by the public. As a result the average uninformed punter will feel cosy with the prospect of Brown in charge for another five years. It will only be after the election that the public will realise that Brown went early to preempt the coming financial crash. This can be confirmed by the slow reaction of the Bank of England MPC to the inflation threat, Brown's placemen on the commitee are giving him time to get the election over before the financial tidal wave hits.

[Edison Smith]

I still think it won't be until June 11th, 2009 - as reported in the Telegraph last Friday.

[Steve]

mark, i agree. The house of cards economy is about to collapse (or at least parts of it) and Brown is solely responsible. We currently have NO government at all. No policies, no ideas just killing off the most vile/unpopular ideas of the past like cannabis and casinos. Foreign policy remains in tatters and domestic policy going nowhere.

The REAL story is that government spending is being REDUCED and will be REDUCED further in the coming years and this is the rrason Brown will go early. The economy cannot be sustained without the enormous spending on the public sector. When this stops so will the economy. We must expose this now.

[Andrew Lilico]

There's no earthly chance of Brown going this autumn. Indeed, it seems to me that it would raise constitutional issues if he did. When was the last time that a government with a significant working majority and not subject to a major cabinet-level revolt was granted a dissolution after only two and a half years? What grounds would he have for requesting such a dissolution? Should he be granted it? What would he say if the Monarch invited him to see whether he could secure a majority for an administration, or asked whether he would object if she invited someone else to do so?

Setting aside these constitutional speculations (which are not trivial or ridiculous - the Prime Minister is not entitled to a dissolution just because he fancies one, and should not be granted one frivolously), it seems absurd to me to imagine that, having waited so long to be Prime Minister, Gordon Brown would risk losing it all after only a few months.

I believe that everyone in our top team knows this, and that the only point of this silly discussion is to try to discipline the troops - preventing us from grammar-school-style revolutions on other policy group issues as they come up over the summer. We should not allow the wool to be pulled over our eyes. The General Election is still probably two years away, and we have time to debate our policies and pitch and should do so without fear or favour.

[Scotty]

I think that an Autumn GE is Brown's best chance of an outright majority, it all depends on whether Brown has the courage to take the gamble? He is notorious for avoiding taking risks and will want to have the perfect conditions, including good consistent polling numbers. Also be interested to see how Labour party funding improves in the coming months, it did not look like they could afford a GE a few months back.
What about the other main parties position in candidate selections, how organised and ready are they?

[MikeA]

There is absolutely no chance of an Autumn election.
Brown goes now, or he goes long.
If now it's on a new PM, new government, let me have my chance ticket. He can sell himself on being principled and seeking his own mandate, and brave in going for an election when constitutionally he doesn't need one. It's a compelling narrative and surely tempting to the Brownites.
If he goes long, say May/June 2009 he has to show some delivery of his programme and will have to stand on his record.
There is no middle ground.
My guess is that caution will rule and we are looking at 2009 unless Labour shows a consistent lead in polling over a number of months and Brown might (only might) just cut n' run.

[Mark Wallace]

"The election will not hinge on the constitution issue, it is far to complicated for the average man to understand."

How patronising! The Constitution may be written in legalese but people do understand it involves taking powers away from the democratically elected Parliament in Westminster and giving them to an inefficient organisation led by unelected failures like Mandelson.

I think if there is an election called for October Cameron would be very wise to include the demand for a referendum on the Constitution as a plank of his campaign. The negotiations would be going on at the time, in 2004 we knocked Blair all over the park on the issue of a referendum and spotlighting Brown as he refuses to give a referendum to the people when it is vastly popular and keeps posing about democratic involvement would be very telling.

[Ken Stevens]

Mark Wallace | July 19, 13:30
"..Cameron would be very wise to include the demand for a referendum on the Constitution as a plank of his campaign..."

I will only vote for a party that has an inviolable referendum pledge.

If Boris is successful in his London mayoralty bid, then presumably there will be a Henley-o-T by-election. That would relieve me of a guilty conscience about no longer voting for B on a personal respect & affection basis, as in present circumstances my vote has no chance of going to Conservatives (nor Lab or Lib/Dem).

[Bloody Minded]

If its anything to do with Osborne its bound to flop.

[Andrew Lilico]

Nick Robinson's comment: "There is...one word to describe the talk of a snap election - it's tosh."

[malcolm]

I'll take a small bet with you Andrew Lillico. Say £20 ? I think for the reasons stated by mark Brown would be sensible to go soon but he is such a coward he might want to chicken out. Let me know if you're interested. Personally I hope it's a bet I lose.

[Goldie]

If Brown will go to the polls early, he will have to do it this Fall -- he can't wait till May because that would interfere with the ratification process of the EU Reform Treaty. Brown won't want to go to the polls while that particular issue is high on the political agenda. Seems to me it's either October or not any time soon.

[Goldie]

If Brown will go to the polls early, he will have to do it this Fall -- he can't wait till May because that would interfere with the ratification process of the EU Reform Treaty. Brown won't want to go to the polls while that particular issue is high on the political agenda. Seems to me it's either October or not any time soon.

[Oliver Arthurs]

Brown would be mental to go for a snap election now. People are fed up of Labour, there's a genuine thirst nationwide for a Conservative government that I've not felt in 25 years, and we have both the personalities and policies to win it. That is if Cameron concentrates on the things which matter to people (the European Consti-sell-out, crime and immigration) and not things which don't - sorry Dave, but nobody in my constituency mention Rwanda on the doorstep during the local election.

So why would Brown go for an election? Oh, that's right...he IS mental.

[Andrew Lilico]

Brown doesn't need to have a snap election to get the Treaty through without a referendum. He will just wait until the Treaty is voted down elsewhere. Only 17 Member States ratified the Constitution. That gives him 9 chances. His best two are the Netherlands and Poland. I'd fancy the odds, if I were him. He doesn't need to ratify until 2009, by which time it will probably have gone away.

In the meantime he gets to go for longer and longer without people associating him with Blair's discredited reputation. He probably gets to withdraw from Iraq. He gets time to show what sorts of reforms he has in mind. Perhaps we even win the European Championships if Rooney stays fit. Who knows? Stuff happens, and he has lots of time to react at the moment best for him. Going early removes the option for things to turn decisively in his favour - and why, given that he has so long to get lucky, would he want to give that option up?

[mark]

Andrew Lilico @ 1742

A well reasoned argument but you failed to mention the economic timebomb which is ticking or are you in the camp which thinks that interest rates will only peak for a while and then fall back.

[Andrew Woodman]

Just a little O/T, but are all these drug confessions by the cabinet leading up to a campiagn on Cameron's refusal to answer the question?

[Mark Fulford]

Just a little O/T, but are all these drug confessions by the cabinet leading up to a campiagn on Cameron's refusal to answer the question?

Much more to do with Ealing Southall, I'd guess. I suspect they're going for the more hip vote, which Tories tend to underestimate. For many people, experimenting with cannabis is a badge of normality.

[John Leonard]

I would be interested to know whether these confessions were not intended to head off a media expose where those involved were to be outed.

Normally any admission of drug taking does not go down that well.

Sounds to me to be more about damage limitation, especially on the same day that violent crime stats show an increase of 5%.

[malcolm]

Do you want to take a bet or not Andrew Lillico?

[Edison Smith]

Alistair Darling took Cannabis?? (According to the BBC). http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffairs/story/0,,2129826,00.html

Surely that's the first case of a Minister purposely outing their use of an illegal substance to enhance their reputation!

[Mark Fulford]

I would be interested to know whether these confessions were not intended to head off a media expose where those involved were to be outed.

Reading more on the BBC site, they'd have you believe that the "confessions" were responses to a telephone survey conducted by the BBC. Seems an odd sort of survey -- "Excuse me, have you broken drugs laws and would you like to tell the nation?"

[Comstock]

If Brown waits, then wins, Malcolm will be cleaned out :D

[Daniel VA]

"If Brown waits, then wins, Malcolm will be cleaned out."

If Gordon Brown doesn't wait, then wins, we'll all be cleaned out.

[Daniel VA]

In fact, either way, we'll all be cleaned out.

[Richard Carey]

Alistair Darling took Cannabis??

They do say that smoking too much dope makes you totally boring... perhaps this is an inadvertant part of Government drugs education policy?

[Matt Wright]

I suspect May next year is the date (as long as he has good polling) otherwise he will go the whole term,

Matt

[Tapestry]

'Around 40 referendum-friendly Labour backbenchers have indicated support for the campaign, which could disrupt Mr Brown's political honeymoon.' Telegraph.

Brown can hardly call an election until he has called a referendum on the EU Treaty, or it has been rejected by another country saving him the bother.

[Andrew Lilico]

malcolm@19:06

You're on. How do you want to pay me?

[malcolm]

In cash Andrew. As I say I hope I lose but I have a terrible feeling I'm going to win.

[MHDH]

oh yeah. Smart move. A Summer campaign when everyone's interested in other things (the weather?). Which CCHQ numpty suggested this approach?

[Mike T]

I think Brown will be foolish to call in September for some very good reasons.

The economy. This is ripe for scrutiny, interest rates are starting to bite hard and Labour's manifesto will be for more spending not less. Also, current Labour policy is exactly what Osborne has been saying 'sharing the proceeds of growth' at this stage of the economic cycle we are heavily in debt which is plain wrong. Whilst their won't be much room for tax cuts, expect inheritance tax to be abolished.

Social issues - IDS's report is timely and also very bankable for the traditional achilles heel of the Tories. With Labour now mimicking IDS's report, the Tories hold the trump card with tax benefits for marriage.

Education, frankly Balls is a muppet, Gove should wipe the floor with him. IF the Tories can get the secondary education policy right, it's for the taking.

NHS, doctors and nurses are frankly sick of Labour, clever Tory policies here to empower them will get their support.

Policing, less red tape, more on the beat and locally elected Chief Constables will leave the Brownites in a real spin. Mr. Davis will go to Def Con 1 and watch Labour get out of the way.

Defence, Keep the troops in but more defence spending to get them equipped properly should destroy Labour there.

But the real Tory uber-weapons has to be the EU referendum and localism, with a mass of Tory councillors in place, promising an end to central diktat and more say in local issues. Trust the people should be the message.

The Tories will have new policy ideas to fight an autumn election with and Brown knows this, with no chance to cherrypick the best ones, I agree with Nick Robinson - it's tosh.

[Comstock]

"I have a terrible feeling I'm going to win"

So do I, after the Ealing and Sedgfield results.

C'mon Gordy...go for the big one...you can do it :)