ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Labour 7% ahead in ICM poll

The Press Association is reporting an ICM poll for tomorrow's News of the World that gives Labour a 35% to 28% lead over the Conservatives.  And just to underline that these headline percentages look very low, the LibDems are down on just 13%.

53% of respondents told ICM that Gordon Brown was best equipped to lead Britain - nearly twice as many as the 27% who had that opinion of David Cameron.

7.25pm: The Sunday Telegraph has just been in touch to say that they have an ICM survey which also has ICM 7% ahead but with much more sensible-sounding headline numbers: Labour 40%, Tories 33% and LibDems 19%.

7.35pm: From PA on The Sunday Telegraph survey: "Some 70% of voters felt it was better for parents to be married.  However, opinion was split on giving tax incentives for marriage, as backed by Mr Cameron this week.  While 49% backed the plan, 44% opposed it."

10.15am on 15th July: We may now have the explanation for the funny NotW numbers.  The question ICM asked was not a usual voting intention but "Now Brown has taken over, and faces Cameron and Campbell, are you feeling warmer to the idea of supporting... Labour/ Conservative/ LibDem etc?"

4pm: Graphic added below.

Bercow defection is expected at time of maximum embarrassment

24 hours ago a Tory MP suggested to me that John Bercow was certain to defect to Labour and it was only a question of when.

Earlier this week the MP for Buckingham attacked Iain Duncan Smith's proposals for a tax allowance for marriage during a Conservative-sponsored debate on the relief of poverty (picture).  In a recent debate on Europe he went out of his way to welcome British loss of powers on asylum policy and to support Quentin Davies' European views:

"I happen to believe that asylum policy is also an area on which we should co-operate. It was referred to en passant by my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond, Yorks (Mr. Hague), who spoke from the Front Bench about the pursuit of a common European asylum policy as though that were somehow a bad thing. Actually, as I have been arguing for the last two years in pamphlets and elsewhere, it would be a good thing. Why? Asylum is a phenomenon that confronts all EU member states and a great many other countries to boot. If we want seriously and effectively to tackle the growing phenomenon of asylum shopping, to share the responsibility for people seeking sanctuary, and to sign up to and enforce the principle of non-refoulement, we need some sort of collective agreement.

I strongly agree with a great deal of what my hon. Friend the Member for Grantham and Stamford (Mr. Davies) had to say."

Another MP tells me that Mr Bercow was completely silent during a tearoom discussion after Quentin Davies had defected.

Mr Bercow has already been on a long political journey.  In the 1980s he supported a group that argued for the voluntary repatriation of black and Asian people, the repeal of the Race Relations Act and the abolition of the commission for racial equality.  Since then he has become the party's leading advocate of homosexual rights and resigned from the shadow cabinet in 2002 at protest at IDS' opposition to gay adoption.  A defection to the Labour party would not be difficult for a man who has supported the Iraq war and who has opposed tax cuts.

Mr Bercow has often denied that he will defect but the consensus amongst a growing number of Conservative MPs is that he will defect at a time of maximum embarrassment for the Conservative Party.  This post should carry a large speculation warning but I thought you'd all like to know.

Media liberalism

The Centre for Policy Studies is publishing a paper tomorrow, Confessions of a Reformed BBC Producer, by Antony Jay, co-writer of Yes, Minister. Robin Aitken, a more recent employee of the BBC who has spoken out on its institutional bias with his book, has yet to be interviewed about it by the BBC. The Telegraph has a large extract of Jay's paper, highlights of which are below:

The chattering classes: "They are that minority characterised (or caricatured) by sandals and macrobiotic diets, but in a less extreme form found in the Guardian, Channel 4, the Church of England, academia, showbusiness and BBC News and Current Affairs, who constitute our metropolitan liberal media consensus - though the word “liberal” would have Adam Smith rotating at maximum velocity in his grave. Let's call it "media liberalism"."

Tonight programme: "My stint coincided almost exactly with Macmillan's premiership, and I do not think my ex-colleagues would quibble if I said we were not exactly diehard supporters. But we were not just anti-Macmillan; we were anti-industry, anti-capitalism, anti-advertising, anti-selling, anti-profit,     anti-patriotism, anti-monarchy, anti-Empire, anti-police, anti-armed forces, anti-bomb, anti-authority. Almost anything that made the world a freer, safer and more prosperous place, you name it, we were anti it."

On the Queen Mother: "It was (and is) essentially, though not exclusively, a graduate phenomenon. From time to time it finds an issue that strikes a chord with the broad mass of the nation, but in most respects it is wildly unrepresentative of national opinion. When the Queen Mother died the media liberal press dismissed it as an event of no particular importance, and were mortified to see the vast crowds lining the route for her funeral, and the great flood of national emotion that it released."

Nick Wood

I hope my regular readers will forgive a little off-beat post but I would like to pay a little tribute to Media Intelligence Partners' Nick Wood.  Nick - former Times and Express senior political correspondent and former media director for William Hague and IDS - has been responsible for the media handling of the publication of Iain Duncan Smith's social justice report.  It has been a terrific success.  Not only did it produce the significant editorials that I highlighted on Wednesday, it also produced four reports on BBC1's Ten'o'clock news.  None of this is to say that the underlying report did not have something to do with the favourable coverage!  But there was a real understanding from Nick of what the media wanted and the six day strategy of daily pre-releases of the non-family sections of the report ensured that the marriage announcements did not overwhelm everything else.

New Cameroonian blog on the way

Fraser Nelson, on The Spectator's Coffee House, is reporting that Steve Hilton, David Cameron's leading adviser, is behind a new blog that will champion a more Cameroonian view of the world.  I do not know if Steve does want to build an alternative to ConservativeHome but I wish Fiona Melville and her team every success with their 'Platform Ten'.  It's another confirmation of the right's leadership of the blogosphere that Peter Franklin discussed on Wednesday.  ConservativeHome has always be open about our worldview and this week published a manifesto setting out our core beliefs.  We look forward to linking to 'Platform Ten' when it launches.

7.30pm: Iain Dale says he knows that Steve Hilton is not behind the site.  I do not think he's right to be so emphatic.  Here is the holding page and logo for Platform 10.  Guido has some nice things to say about ConservativeHome in his post about 'CameroonHome'.  Thank you Mr Fawkes!  Dizzy is worried that a battle of the right-wing blogs might get messy.

Cameron supports tax breaks for same sex partnerships

David Cameron, just interviewed by Jon Snow for Channel 4 News, has said that any tax break for married couples that the Tories introduce will also benefit gay couples within civil partnerships.

C4's Cathy Newman reported that John Bercow and Tim Yeo are likely to lead any backbench opposition to the plan and that both Oliver Letwin and George Osborne have doubts about the cost of any tax breaks.  The danger for David Cameron of long delaying any announcement on tax breaks for marriage is that Bercow and others may begin to build a block of opposition to the idea.

In his interview Mr Cameron said that Iraq had been "a foreign policy disaster" but the Tories did not support an arbitrary timetable for withdrawal that would only give terrorist insurgents something to shoot at.

11pm: Tomorrow's Times is reporting that some in the shadow cabinet have doubts about the marriage policy although Cornerstone are strongly in support.

What do you think of Iain Duncan Smith's social justice report?

Earlier this week Iain Duncan Smith offered 188 policy ideas to the Conservative Party that would help tackle social injustice.  In a special survey we are seeking your opinion on 12 of those ideas.  ConservativeHome intends to undertake similar surveys after each of the policy group reports.

Click here to have your say.

Davis and Herbert attack Labour for prisons crisis

New Shadow Secretary of State for Justice Nick Herbert has linked the sharp increase in the number of prison suicides to the problem of prison overcrowding:

"These are deeply troubling figures and there must be a real fear that the increase in suicides is linked to overcrowding.  The Government's failure to plan for sufficient prison capacity doesn't just compromise public safety - it also has a human cost."

The "public safety" consequences of the failure to build more prison places has been highlighted in another statement from CCHQ - but from Shadow Home Secretary David Davis:

“The Government need to realise that not building extra places is a false economy. Non-custodial sentences simply fail to punish or rehabilitate. The Government’s flagship ISSP programme has a youth re-offending rate of 91 per cent. As for tagging - which was extensively rolled out by Jack Straw when he was Home Secretary - the IT has a 15 per cent failure rate, offenders can breach curfews for 3 years without penalty and perverse targets mean breaches are ignored. In fact six murders and 1,000 violent crimes have been committed by those on tags.
 
Lack of custodial places not only means that offenders who should be in jail are not in jail. It also means that prisoners are released early or constantly moved around and not allowed to settle. Either way they do not receive effective and sustained rehabilitation and re-offending continues to increase under Labour. If you don’t address overcrowding you won’t improve rehabilitation rates. If you don’t improve rehabilitation, you won’t cut re-offending which makes up half of all crime. After ten years the government and Gordon Brown still don’t get this.”

'Crime and security' is set to be one of the Tories top four election issues - alongside the family, the NHS and the environment.  On crime it is vital that Brown's failure to fund prison building is blamed for the overcrowding and associated endangering of the public.

The Mail praises Brown's "return to decent values"

All of the papers are reporting that Gordon Brown has killed off Tony Blair's supercasino plans.  The Mail can barely contain its delight:

"To his huge credit, Gordon Brown is turning his back on the big-money interests that held his predecessor in thrall and is signalling that Britain's first supercasino is dead in the water.  Admittedly, Blair's wretched gambling policy had already become a farce.  Only weeks after Manchester was awarded the licence to run this vast new opportunity to exploit the weak and vulnerable, the House of Lords threw out the proposal - and with it, plans for 16 smaller casinos.

But that doesn't alter the significance of what Mr Brown had to say on the subject yesterday.  He doesn't repeat Downing Street's arrogant claim last March that the gambling industry is still 'very much alive', despite the Parliamentary vote.  He acknowledges frankly that there is 'no consensus' in either the Commons or the Lords.  He knows most voters don't want a supercasino.  And unlike Mr Blair, he is listening."

Gordon Brown's friend Paul Dacre may have been positive about IDS' marriage report yesterday but today's leader shows that The Mail's affection for the new Prime Minister remains strong.

David Cameron has attacked the manner of the supercasino u-turn - announced at PMQs in response to a question from a Labour backbencher.  The Conservative leader said it contradicted Brown's declared wish for a return to Cabinet government: "Suddenly the Government's policy is torn up on the sort of whim of an answer at Prime Minister's questions."  I'd prefer the Tories to simply welcome the u-turn and the abandonment of a supercasino that Hugo Swire did so much to successfully oppose.

LibDems AWOL in poverty debate

Oliver Letwin is leading for the Tories in a Commons debate on the relief of poverty - a debate I'm proud to report was initiated by the Conservatives.  The debate comes a day after Iain Duncan Smith's 188 recommendations into fighting the social injustices that have got worse under Labour.  Speaking yesterday David Cameron said:

"Gordon Brown’s social failure is costing this country over a hundred billion pounds a year.  But it is not just the financial cost that should concern us.  It is the cost in wasted lives, dashed hopes and disappointment.  And the scandal is, this was what the Labour government was supposed to fix.  Gordon Brown said he wanted to get Britain back to work.  But after ten years of his policies, five million people of working age – over one in ten adults – are out of work and on benefits.  Gordon Brown said he wanted to give young people the best start in life.  But after ten years of his policies, there are over a million young people not in work, education or training – more than in 1997.  Gordon Brown said he wanted to tackle poverty.  Yet after ten years of his policies, the poorest people in our society have got poorer – and there are more of them.  What on earth was it all about, these last ten years, if it wasn’t about this?  With this report as our evidence we will take Gordon Brown to pieces for his devastating social failure.  These Labour politicians, they talk about being progressive; they pose as the champions of the poor and the vulnerable... and all the while preside over a Britain where the poorest and most vulnerable sink further and further behind.  We’ve got among the worst rates of teenage pregnancy, drug addiction and personal debt in Europe."

The LibDems pose as progressives too but where were they in today's poverty debate?  The above screen shot of the Commons chamber from just a few minutes ago shows a respectable number of Tory MPs but empty LibDem benches behind David Laws.  Surely their unlikely hopes for a good result in Ealing Southall aren't being put before their commitment to fighting poverty?

Live PMQs blog (12.30: Tory MPs lead coordinated attack on Brown's 'Scottish problem')

12.29pm: Ben Wallace becomes fourth Tory MP to raise the 'Scottish problem'. Newly promoted to the frontbench as a shadow Scottish spokesman Mr Wallace says that it is unfair that the Prime Minister is able to make health policy for people in England but MPs for English seats cannot do the same for Scotland.  GB responds by saying that the Tories have failed to accept devolution.

12.28pm: A second Labour MP raises the SJPG report.

12.23pm: Angela Watkinson repeats an unanswered question from David Evennett about why nurses in Scotland get paid more than nurses in England.  AW's questions follows a question from Andrew Rosindell seeking support for English Votes for English Laws.  Tory MPs are clearly working away at the PM's 'Scottish problem'.

12.17pm: In response to a question from a Labour MP for Blackpool GB says that investment in the tram system, a new museum of the theatre and a new conference centre could all be ways of renovating the town.

12.15pm: Peter Tapsell asks about pensions.

12.11pm: Ming raises the issue of fraud and tax credits.  GB responds with lots of stats about lots of extra welfare benefits from Labour.

12.09pm: David Cameron says that under Labour there'll be "more closures, more removal of services, more job cuts". GB responds by saying that the Government has delivered 80,000 more nurses and 30,000 more doctors.  He attacks DC as focusing on PR.  He'll focus on being PM, he declares to Labour cheers.

12.03pm: David Cameron challenges Gordon Brown on the NHS.  DC focuses on the danger of hospital closures.  GB responds with statistics on hospital investment and says that the Conservatives will never invest to the same extent as Labour.   

12.02pm: Labour MP Andy Reed invited Brown to scrap his predecessor's plans for super casinos.  GB did not rule out doing so.

12.01pm: Henry Bellingham MP asks Gordon Brown about the fact that one of the 21/7 bombers was a Hizb ut-Tahrir member and had thwarted UK border controls.  The Prime Minister said that he would keep Hizb ut-Tahrir's status under constant review and that ID cards would help the fight against terror.

11.45am: Great graphic on the Daily Politics to mark Brown's Queen's Speech preview exercise...

11am: What would you ask the Prime Minister about?

Big welcome from centre right press for IDS' report

The traditionally right-of-centre newspapers give a warm welcome this morning to yesterday's policy recommendations from Iain Duncan Smith.  Although there is some discussion of the breadth of the report, the main focus is on the promises to help families.

Daily Mail (not online): "For ten years, Gordon Brown has presided over a tax and benefits system that not only destroys incentives to work, but positively encourages parents to live apart, while penalising those who stay together.  Mr Cameron's determination to redress that balance not only makes good sense for Britain; it makes good politics for the Tories too.  If he has the sense to match properly costed policies to his brave words, he'll find he's on to a vote-winner."

Daily Telegraph: "The outcomes for children raised by two parents living together are far better than for those raised by single parents, and couples are far more likely to remain together if they are married rather than cohabiting... This is clearly a sphere in which Mr Cameron feels comfortable and to which he can bring sincere personal conviction. It may well be his key to a successful opposition strategy."

The Sun (not online): "For the first-time, the Tories have carved out vote-winning territory beyond the reach of New Labour.  They promise to use the tax and welfare system to reward marriage... A stable and happy marriage offers the best family environment for children... Now - instead of suggesting we pay more for our booze, museums and cheap flights - the Tories are backing marriage.  And that has to be a good thing."

Daily Express (not online): "David Cameron is right to set a political course that encompasses tax breaks for married parents.  Marriage should be encouraged because children thrive when they grow up in stable, two-parent families.  Labour's welfare state tinkering has led to parents lower down the income scale being much better off if they split up.  That cannot be right."

Leaders in The Guardian and Independent are critical of the marriage recommendations although The Independent is impressed with much of the report: "This voluminous report is for the most part admirably free of preconceptions, and contains ideas that would deserve consideration by a government of any complexion."

David Cameron writes for the Mail about his commitment to marriage.

Today's cannabis is a lot stronger than in Cameron's day...

Asked this afternoon about the increased power of cannabis the Tory leader spoke about the time he recently attended the arrest of some young men in possession of drugs...

"Before the bag was even open, the smell... unbelievably strong. Grown in greenhouses this skunk is unbelievably powerful.  And it is completely different to... [laughter]... I think I'll stop there." 

188 policy ideas to tackle poverty

Just returned from the press conference at which Iain Duncan Smith and his team of policy advisers presented the Breakthrough Britain report.  You can access a full copy here.  Perhaps inevitably the journalists' questions focused on the proposal for a tax break for married couples.  My guess is that this one recommendation will dominate the rest of the day's news cycle.  Here are my own contextual thoughts:

• The financial support for married and two parent couples is important because there are currently penalties for couples who live together and get married.  These penalties may not affect the lifestyle decisions of comfortably-off people but they matter when you are struggling to make ends meet.  We should not only look at these issues through middle class eyes.
• Breakthrough Britain does not pretend that a tax allowance alone will repair marriage.  Unlike previous Tory policies on families there are many other pro-family proposals including recommendations to review family law, provide couples with relationship education, Frank Field's option of frontloading child benefit, more help for carers and Cabinet-level representation for the family.
• The family breakdown section of the report is just one of six sections.  Breakthrough Britain is clear that we won't tackle poverty unless we also tackle the problems of addiction, indebtedness, worklessness and educational failure.  The sixth section focuses on the voluntary and charitable sector and its role in building 'the nation of the second chance'.
• Some of the best policies in the report are, for me: extension of the right-to-buy, simplification of child benefit, requirements for lone parents to be available for undertake 20 hours of work when their youngest child reaches five, payment of welfare-to-work providers according to results-based contracts, premium pay for inner city teachers, 'Pioneer Schools' free of LEA control and based on the US charter schools model and with funding voucherised, stricter classification of cannabis, a move towards abstinence-based drug rehab, measures to strengthen credit unions, greater funding of debt advice services, financial education for 14-year-olds, simplification of Gift Aid, a V-card reward scheme for young volunteers, the piloting of Community Growth Trusts (of which more soon) and fairer treatment of faith-based organisations.

In total there are 188 policy recommendations.  If you want to read them all please download this pdf.

Iain Duncan Smith set out the big picture ideas behind his report on YourPlatform earlier today.

Iain Duncan Smith's social justice report is published tomorrow

There wasn't much detail on tonight's Ten'o'clock BBC1 news bulletin but Nick Robinson accompanied Iain Duncan Smith to Glasgow and met some of the people who have inspired the former Tory leader to pursue his commitment to find new ways to defeat poverty.

The BBC's Political Editor reported that Iain Duncan Smith had been on a years-long crusade to convert his party to the cause of social justice and with tomorrow's publication of the heavily-trailed final report that crusade now expands to the whole nation.

IDS is first filmed with Janis Dobbie (above) who has lost two sons to drugs.  A key component of the Social Justice Policy Group's report is a major increase in funding for drug rehabilitation and a movement away from methadone-type programmes that maintain people in forms of prescription dependency and towards real programmes that provide freedom from addiction.  Prescription programmes currently receive ten times as much funding in total as freedom programmes.  IDS also wants a tighter classification of cannabis given the links between stronger forms of this drug and mental illness.

Iain is filmed above with Janis and Jim Doherty of the Gallowgate Family Support Group.  The Group is one of the small community-based projects that the voluntary sector chapter of the report is designed to help.  The SJPG aims to 'trustmark' the best community groups with a new level of recognition that will attract higher levels of private and public sector grants.  The report also suggests more use of matched funding so that the crucial decisions about which charities receive public money are increasingly made by local people rather than remote bureaucrats.

Nick Robinson's report concluded with a preview of tomorrow's announcement that IDS will recommend a £6bn package of support for marriage and two parent families. Half of which will go towards a new tax allowance for married couples and half of which will go to eliminate the benefits penalty that couples have to face compared with single parents.

Many middle class observers sneer that they would never get married or stay married for a tax perk.  That ignores the reality of 'life at the bottom'.  Many couples struggle to make ends meet and Gordon Brown's tax and benefits system makes it economically advantageous for many low income parents to live apart or at least pretend to live apart.

My own hope is that there isn't too great a media focus on the tax allowance.  The SJPG will also recommend new forms of counselling and practical support for couples starting their life together.  This practical mentoring and other measures to help families with dependent relatives, and those who are struggling with debt, are also essential ingredients of a comprehensive anti-poverty programme.

Speaking to Nick Robinson, IDS said that poverty could not be beaten by concentrating on any one of today's five giants of poverty.  All five evils - family breakdown, severe indebtedness, addiction, educational failure and worklessness - all had to be tackled together.

ConservativeHome will be at tomorrow's 10.30am unveiling of the 200 policy recommendations and IDS will be writing exclusively for this site about the philosophical underpinnings of his analysis.  David Cameron will be speaking tomorrow afternoon at a London community project about his own first reaction to the former Tory leader's report.

The case for higher tax on alcohol

Perhaps the most controversial recommendation (at least so far) from Iain Duncan Smith's Social Justice Policy Group is the recommendation of higher alcohol taxes.  The Sun attacked the suggestion as "potty".  Iain Dale called the policy "ludicrous".  I can't say that I'm yet persuaded but I know IDS very well.  He's a taxcutting Tory and I know he wouldn't have made the recommendation without having given it a lot of thought.

There are three main justifications in the report for higher alcohol taxes:

The need for the drinks industry to help meet the social costs of alcohol abuse.  Alcohol consumption has increased dramatically in recent years - particularly amongst women and the young.  The Breakdown Britain report documented how children as young as eleven and twelve were binge drinking regularly.  60% of boys have been binge drinking by the age of 15.  Cirrhosis of the liver has gone up 350%.  There are 23,000 acts of alcohol-related violence every week.  20% of violent crimes take place near a club or pub.  Much workplace absentee-ism and underperformance is drink-related.  Surveys also suggest that alcohol misuse is a gateway to drug misuse.  The annual cost to society of alcohol and drug misuse - including anti-social behaviour and health problems - could be as much as £39bn says the SJPG.  Money raised by higher taxes could fund treatments for people with addiction problems.

The price of alcohol is at historically low levels.  The graphs opposite (click to enlarge) illustrate that alcohol prices have held steady or fallen in real terms.  This has occured while disposable incomes have risen steadily.

Consumption of alcohol is sensitive to price changes. The Institute of Alcohol Studies suggests that young people, because of their low levels of disposable income, are particularly sensitive to price changes.  Even addicts - because of an economic theory called 'rational addiction' - can cut consumption because of price changes.  Alcohol Concern reports that the Academy of Medical Sciences believes a 10% increase in the price of alcoholic drinks could cut related deaths by more than a third.

In a submission to the SJPG, the Institute of Alcohol Studies said:

"The Government was rejecting the advices of virtually the whole scientific and public health community based on the accumulated international evidence that the price of alcohol is one of the principal influences on levels of consumption and harm."

The Campaign for Real Ale has dismissed the Tory plans as unworkable, however:

“A beer tax increase of 10% will lead to people buying their alcohol at supermarkets where beer is irresponsibly used as a loss leader. The drop in trade will force pubs to close and communities that use those pubs will lose yet another valuable amenity. In addition there will be an increase in cheap alcohol being smuggled in from lower tax countries further eroding the Treasury’s cut and promoting uncontrolled and underage drinking."

Will Brown choose Harman or Dacre in the great marriage debate?

The Tory-Mail relationship hasn't been great of late so there'll have been a few smiles within Team Cameron at this morning's Daily Mail front page splash...

The Mail's enthusiasm for Iain Duncan Smith's likely recommendation that action is taken to reduce the disincentives to marry within the tax and benefits system will be a test for Gordon Brown.  Our new Prime Minister has courted The Sun and Mail ever since he set his eyes on Number Ten.  He will be concerned that he may lose Paul Dacre if he goes too hard against the Tory marriage policy although Harriet Harman et al will be pressing him very hard to do so.

This is how today's Mail leader column concludes:

"Duncan Smith's report is a welcome challenge to political correctness. Though some of his proposals may prove contentious - for example, swingeing taxes on alcohol to fund treatments for drug addicts - his case for strengthening family structures is compelling.  As David Cameron says, mending Britain's 'broken society' is the biggest issue of our times. It will be instructive to see how other parties respond."

Ms Harman's political correctness means she despises any hint that one form of family structure is usually better for children than any other.  That political correctness forces her and her ideological Labour colleagues to ignore the evidence that poverty is almost certainly unbeatable if public policy does not support two parents and marriage.

Bombshell for Brown as five Ealing Southall councillors defect from Labour to the Conservatives

David Cameron is in Ealing Southall as I post this blog welcoming FIVE Labour councillors into the Tory fold.  This is not only a massive boost to Tony Lit's by-election campaign it is also a serious blow to Gordon Brown.

This is the statement from the five defecting councillors:

"It has become increasingly obvious as this by-election campaign has progressed, that the Conservative candidate Tony Lit is the best person to represent Ealing Southall as our next MP.  He's energetic, dynamic and displays the kind of qualities that would make him ideally suited to represent the people of Ealing Southall. We wanted to provide him with our backing and joining the Conservative Party sends the clearest possible message.

"Locally since Conservatives took control of Ealing Council in May 2006 we have noticed that they have been making great strides towards trying to improve the quality of life for all our residents. We've finally reached the stage where it has become blatantly obvious that we would be doing own voters a great disservice if we continue to dogmatically stick with a disorganised and divided Labour Party. Our goal is to see genuine improvements for our residents. We believe that the Conservative Party now provides our community with greater opportunities and is genuinely interested in improving services for all.

"At a national level we are extremely impressed by David Cameron's modern Conservatives and, with the changes that he has now made, we feel that the Conservative Party now best represents our views. In a sense we believe the Conservatives have become our natural home and we are very excited about the opportunity to play a full part in a Party which we believe is destined to form the next government."

The five new Tory councillors are: Gurcharan Singh, Manjit Singh, Maninder Kaur Keith, Jarnail Singh Jandu and Jagdish Gupta. Also, local Sikh Dr Gulbash Singh was going to stand as an independent but has now backed Tony Lit.

ConservativeHome has been redesigned

We hope you like it.

We have had the following main aims:

• To make the site easier to navigate.
• To increase the prominence of links to blogs. That explains the new middle column on the frontpage that will cover blogs and news as the day develops.
• To provide some new functionality.  There is now, for example, a search facility in the right hand column.  You can use it for searching within ConservativeHome or across the whole worldwide web.
• To drop the old first column so that Blackberry and PDA users can go directly to the main story.

There will also be a new page from tomorrow - our columnists page. 'The magnificent seven' of Stephan Shakespeare, Andrew Lilico, Peter Franklin, Louise Bagshawe, Theresa May MP, Cameron Watt and Graeme Archer have agreed to write every week.  Some have been deliberately chosen to broaden the range of perspectives you read on this site.  The page kicks off properly tomorrow with a contribution from Andrew Lilico.

That commitment to broadening the range of perspectives is one of the six themes of the ConservativeHome manifesto.  That manifesto - published today - sets out the core beliefs of this site.

Grateful for your comments.  We're happy to make changes...

A memo to Andy Coulson

The Conservative Party’s new Head of Communications, Andy Coulson, formally begins work today but he arrives prepared.  He has been seen lunching with and gathering intelligence from people who will be crucial to Project Cameron’s success – Nick Robinson – and others who have occupied similar positions in recent years.

He may face an immediate firestorm associated with Iain Duncan Smith’s social justice report – its recommendations on higher beer prices and support for marriage - although veteran media firefighter, Nick Wood, is in day-to-day charge of the former Tory leader’s report.

Anyhow to add to the mountain of advice already given, here’s ConservativeHome’s memo to the new Tory communications guru:

Define your relationship with Steve Hilton. This should be your number one priority. Your £270,000 salary is a mark of your seniority. But you need your advice taken. David Cameron is incredibly reliant on Hilton. Nothing much has moved in the last eighteen months without Steve giving it the nod.  Everyone defers to him.  Steve is creatively brilliant.  He knows a lot about marketing but has a fraction of your experience of both media and directing messages at the C2s.

'Let Bartlet Be Bartlet'.  We wrote about this last week.  David Cameron always appears reasonable and moderate - which is usually good - but can we see some more passion from him?  More authenticity?  Otherwise everything can look a bit calculated.  Portraying him as the family man and loving father that he is will be a really important task for you.

Be blunt. You were famous around the News of the World for your blunt editorial meetings and terrifying ability to sense when someone was putting forward a story that wasn’t thought through. You’ll hear plenty of such stuff at CCHQ. Two of the big and related problems within CCHQ are that (1) the creative ideas aren’t thought through and (2) the delivery machine doesn’t match/ can’t keep up with the creativity.  There’s simply not enough implementation capacity. You need to be asking the tough questions.

Be the early warning system. It was your old newspaper which coined the phrase “hug-a-hoodie”.  Some say the phrase came from your pen first - in exasperation after reading the speech. The Cameroons seem regularly amazed at the reception their policies get in the media. You can look at a policy, and tell instinctively how it will play. Be the regular source of uncomfortable truths.  Tell them to ditch the social responsibility phrase.  It’s got no traction.

Get TV support. You know the media well enough to appreciate that a newspaper man can’t wave a magic wand at the television. Someone needs to stop Cameron being photographed beside gesticulating kids or hoodie-wearing Labour activists. Hire someone.  Richard Chalk would be ideal if he’s available again.

Sort out the lobby. We hear your job is to talk to commentators. The real problem is basic communication with the press gallery. As you know, day-to-day political coverage will be decided by the political reporters, so make sure they’re well served and give David Cameron playing cards with all their faces on and personal profiles.  He doesn't know enough of them properly.

Ration your calls to editors. Every editor will take a call from you but not if you are on the phone every day.  Convince Murdoch that Cameron is better than Brown.  More small government.  More Eurosceptic.  And resistant to further BBC empire-building.  Murdoch’s people don’t think much of the Tory leader.  Can you begin to sort that?

Champion the “strivers”. The Tories stand for people who want to do better for themselves – the folk who once supported Thatcher and switched to Blair. Yet CCHQ has very few strivers – former XR3i drivers like you.  Too many of the CCHQers are careerists that could really be in any of the main parties. Their message is excruciatingly metropolitan and goes over the heads of C1s and C2s who decide British elections (and buy your old newspaper). You know what the strivers want: You were one yourself.

Know Brown, and his tactics. Brown’s team is small. Study Brown... how he works... and learn to outsmart him.

Use patriotism. Brown’s draping himself in the robes of Britannia. These are our Tory clothes as we suspect you know. Get the flag back!  Alongside David Cameron's green we'd like a bit more red, white and blue.

In closing: we’re glad you got this far. There’s been plenty in the last six weeks that would make a guy of your calibre rethink his decision to join the Tories. Your joining was a real sign that Cameron is being taken seriously. This, in itself, helps our party.

And a final thought for you: There’s a reason centre-right parties are sweeping to power across Europe. The days of big government are over.  This really is the Conservative century. You joined the right half of the political spectrum.  the centre right is now solving the social challenges that defeated the left. You may even be the difference between victory and defeat.  And most of all: Good luck!

Lord Ashcroft returns

Good week: A very good week for Lord Ashcroft who re-emerges as one of the great powers in the Conservative Party.  As we reported on Friday, the former Tory Treasurer will now have a desk at CCHQ from behind which he'll direct the marginal seats campaign, opinion research, 'Campaign North' and the work of party agents.  George Osborne also emerged a big winner of the week - gaining oversight of General Election planning.

David Cameron had a good week, too.  The reshuffle smacked of A-list politics - particularly the appointment of Sayeeda Warsi - but the Brown bounce has deteriorated to being little more than a big blip (hat-tip to Tory T) and he beat the new PM twice in the Commons - once responding to Brown's statement on the Constitution and then at PMQs. 

William Hague overtakes David Davis as members' favourite member of the shadow cabinet.

Tony Lit.  Lots of good coverage of the Tories' Ealing Southall by-election effort.  Every report from the constituency suggests that there's a real buzz about the Grant Shapps-led campaign.

Andrew Porter - who has been appointed the new Political Editor of The Daily Telegraph.

Bad week: Hugo Swire for being sacked from the shadow cabinet - probably because of the museums charging row.

The non-elevation of Ed Vaizey to the shadow cabinet is also put down to his alleged role in the whole museums business.  It can only be a matter of time before Mr Vaizey joins the party's top table table however.

Right turn?  David Cameron seemed a little more right-wing this week.  In his first parliamentary encounter with Gordon Brown he chose to emphasise broken promises on tax, the broken promise on an EU Treaty referendum and English Votes for English Laws.  At PMQs there was lots of talk of border police and action against extremists.  Good stuff!

Issue of the week: Will he or won't he? Boris won't rule out running for Mayor. His now likely bid is the talk of the Westminster Village.

U-turn of the week: Digby Jones.  The new Labour minister was considering running as Tory candidate for Mayor just a few months ago.

What's next? The coming week is set to be dominated by discussion of Iain Duncan Smith's social justice report and talk of family policy...

Welsh Tory leader unapologetic after blog attack on "sub-human" BNP

Nick Bourne AM's personal blog was our blog of the week recently and a post attacking the BNP has reportedly produced 180 complaints to the Welsh Assembly's standards committee.  The leader of the Welsh Tories described the British National Party as a “nasty, mean, distasteful and grubby bunch of sub-human flotsam and jetsam”.

Mr Bourne was unapologetic in a statement to Wales on Sunday:

“I have no intention of withdrawing any of the comments I made about the British National Party and its membership. Nor will I apologise for making them.  The BNP is a divisive, dangerous organisation which exists to spread fear, hatred and bigotry. There is no place in a civilised society for their views and people from all political parties and none should stand together against them.”

I wouldn't use Mr Bourne's language but my guess is that 99% of those 180 complaints were from BNP activists.  Mr Bourne writes an excellent blog and I hope he'll continue to express his views with passion.

Yesterday Plaid and Labour agreed to form a ruling coalition in the Welsh Assembly.  Mr Bourne will lead the opposition to that coalition.  The Welsh Conservatives had hoped to form their own governing alliance with Plaid and the LibDems.

12 July update from the BBC: Bourne cleared by Assembly standing committee

David Cameron's Sunday AM interview

Highlights of David Cameron's interview with Andrew Marr on Sunday AM:

• The party remains unpersuaded about the case for a longer period of detention without trial.  Post-charge questioning is a better way forward.
• Digby Jones was "considering" running as Tory candidate for London Mayor.  He hopes as Labour's Trade Minister that Lord Jones will remain as frank about Labour's failure to listen to business as he was in the past.
• Many of Gordon Brown's Constitutional reforms were Tory ideas first but Gordon Brown is ignoring the really big issues - the European treaty and the consequences of devolution.
• The Conservative Party is setting the agenda - eg on more independence for the NHS and the importance of the environment.
• Spinning hasn't died with Gordon Brown - it has been reborn.  Last week's announcement on local people having a say on how councils spend their money was a case in point.  There's no new money behind the announcement of something that is already underway.  [Iain Lindley has the background].
• Labour are not the change.  The team now in place was also the team that "bankrupted" the pensions industry, imposed stealthy taxation, closed A&E and maternity wards, took away the right to have a night-time visit from a GP and made it so difficult to register with a dentist.
• Family breakdown is the great cause of our social ills including teenage pregnancy, addiction, failing schools, high crime rates and large prison populations.  We must begin a long-term, generational change to ensure that the tax and benefit system recognises the decision to come together and stay together.
• Half of cohabiting couples split up by the time a child is five but it's only one-in-12 for married couples.
• We need a cultural change in favour of parenting, fatherhood and marriage.
• Responding to criticisms of Sayeeda Warsi on alleged homophobia and support for talking to extremists, David Cameron says that it should be welcomed that the Conservative Party has a British Muslim around its top table.  She supports, he continues, Tory security policy and will help the party connect with diverse communities.
• It is for Boris Johnson to decide whether he stands as London Mayor.  He is not going to put the "black spot" on him.
• Andrew Marr's suggestions that the reshuffle partly reflected a determination to make the shadow cabinet less posh were dismissed as "rubbish".
• There is a huge gulf between Gordon Brown's top-down, centralised view of the world and the Conservative view of helping families and other social institutions mend Britain's broken society.

IDS proposes 'treatment tax' on alcohol and reclassification of cannabis

Yesterday it was tackling education failure.  Friday was about tackling debt.  Today the focus of the social justice policy group turns to drug and alcohol addiction and the Sunday newspapers are full of the group's recommendations.

Grabbing most headlines is the Addictions Working Group's recommendation that extra taxes should be levied on beers, wines and spirits in order to pay for new treatments for people with addiction problems and to help fund the policing costs of binge drinking.  The Mail on Sunday suggests that the tax would amount to £1.4bn - equivalent to 7p on a pint.  Such a tax would fit in with Project Cameron's general inclination to shift the burden of taxation on to things that are bad - like pollution - and away from things that are good - like the family and enterprise.  The report says that a tax increase would only restore the real price of alcohol to the levels of the 1990s.  Gordon Brown kept down taxes on alcohol while he was Chancellor because of the alleged impact on the UK drinks industry of booze cruises and other alcohol 'smuggling' from lower tax jurisdictions.

The SJPG estimates that the cost of alcohol and drug addiction is nearly £40bn pa to the British economy and an increase in expenditure on treatment will save money in the long-run.

Iain Duncan Smith's group wants a switch away from 'harm reduction' approaches to drug treatment and much greater investment in 'harm avoidance' services.  There is a recommendation for a £30m programme of drug abstinence programmes for the nation's prisons.  The report notes:

"Spending on “harm reduction” measures – such as substitute prescribing, needle exchange, and harm minimisation advice – runs at ten times the level of spending on residential and community rehabilitation programmes designed to make people permanently drug-free."

As reported in The Observer, the SJPG also wants cannabis reclassified as a class B drug, "carrying much greater penalties for possession and trafficking."  The potency of cannabis has grown significantly over the years and is now associated with an increase in mental health problems.  Iain Duncan Smith suggests that the slogan 'war on drugs' should be binned: "[It] sends the wrong signals. It is not a war on drugs. It is about getting kids off drugs."

In today's Sunday Telegraph Iain Duncan Smith overviews his prescriptions to mend Britain's broken society.

12.30pm: Speaking about an hour ago on Sky News Iain Duncan Smith spotlighted the rise in juvenile alcoholism as a primary reason for his group's recommendation of higher taxes on alcohol.  He argued that young people's drinking levels were particularly sensitive to changes in price.

'I've only been Prime Minister for a few days and my honeymoon is coming to an end'

Two Saturdays ago I had to report that Labour had moved ahead by 3% and that was before the Brown honeymoon.  I have better news for you tonight.  Ten days into the Brown honeymoon and an ICM survey for tomorrow's Sunday Mirror puts Labour just 2% ahead.  By 37% to 35% there is no sign that Brown's first acts as Prime Minister have produced anything like the take-off that his close advisers had hoped for or the blanket coverage might have produced.

The LibDems remain subdued on 17%.

There is no room for complacency, however, in the Tory camp.  52% of voters thought Gordon Brown had performed better than expected since replacing Tony Blair.  By 52% to 20% - a massive lead - the new Prime Minister was preferred over the Tory leader on ability to handle terrorism.  The Labour leader also enjoys a 43% to 37% advantage on Cameron's trademark issue - the environment.

ConservativeHome hears consistently good reports from the Ealing Southall by-election.  A victory for Tony Lit would be a certain way of killing the Brown bounce.  It might also force LibDems to replace Menzies Campbell.  Click here to offer help in the Ealing or Sedgefield by-elections.

10.45pm: UK Polling Report has an interesting post that analyses the historical impact on a party's fortunes of a mid-term change in Prime Minister.