Last night we posted about a Populus survey for The Times which put Labour 6% ahead. Another survey by Communicate Research - for The Independent - puts the Labour lead at a more modest 3%.
Labour is on 37% (up 5% on last month). The Conservatives are down 3% to 34%. The LibDems are on 16%.
Reacting to Communicate Research's finding that the Labour lead is 9% amongst men but the Tories are 2% ahead amongst women, a Cabinet minister told The Independent: "Polling evidence we have had shows that women tend to be slower to switch than men. But they will come across." I think that statement could be described as condescending!
"Labour is on 37% (up 5% on last month). The Conservatives are down 3% to 34%. The LibDems are on 16%."
isn't this the polling company that gave the Tories a 5% lead after Brown had become PM? I'd say this is Communicate catching up with the rest.
As for the male/female split in Tory support is it not a historical fact that the Tories have a higher level of support among women?
Posted by: another anon | July 31, 2007 at 02:10
"Male voters desert Cameron as pressure on Tory leader grows"
Don't think the Independent headline staring out from news stands will do Cameron much good!!
Posted by: another anon | July 31, 2007 at 02:12
The Brown Bounce Doesn't exist.
http://www.typepad.com/t/app/weblog/post?__mode=edit_entry&id=37084916&blog_id=555190
Posted by: Tapestry | July 31, 2007 at 05:28
another anon - my copy has a different headline to yours. It says - women stay loyal to Cameron.
Posted by: Tapestry | July 31, 2007 at 05:29
Disappesaring Lib Dems help Conservatives as we have many marginals with LD while Labour have few.
The growing vote for others hurts Labour more than us as BNP pulls 3 labour for every 1 Conservative.
The Brown Bounce was illusory as it was based entirely in the 40% who didn't vote in 2005. Their likelihood to actually vote should have been heavily discounted.
The Brown Bounce media narrative needed some good polls to keep the news industry bubbling away. Pinch of salt required.
Posted by: Tapestry | July 31, 2007 at 05:33
please click http://tapestrytalks.typepad.com/tapestry_talks/
not the URL above
Posted by: Tapestry | July 31, 2007 at 05:37
Well done Sam. Miraj "Cameron is all spin" is the lead story on the Today programme at7am.
I haven't been out for the papers yet.
Posted by: john | July 31, 2007 at 07:19
"Polling evidence we have had shows that women tend to be slower to switch than men. But they will come across." I think that statement could be described as condescending!
Condescending or not it is probably true. Occasionally in life we must face the truth and cease to live the lie.
Polls are going to be increasingly pointless as vacationers are abroad
Posted by: TomTom | July 31, 2007 at 07:23
The discrepancies between the polls shows how the Brown bounce is all hype. A natural but transient effect after an unpopular prime minister stepping down. The Liberals will fade out come a general election as voters are faced with a stark choice between more Labour or Conservative change.
Posted by: Tony Makara | July 31, 2007 at 08:59
The Liberals will fade out come a general election as voters are faced with a stark choice between more Labour or Conservative change.
Oh the joy of (Marxist) historical inevitability.
It's no wonder that the Roons are cultural Marxists to a wo/man.
(Nice bit of PC, that)
Posted by: Traditional Tory | July 31, 2007 at 09:06
Keeping in mind that this poll has recently been very positive to the Tories, I feel that promoting this latest poll as "only" giving Labour a 3-point lead is a little desperate.
The words "straws" and "clutching" come to mind. I want us to win and we need to be positive but at this point realism is better than denial propoganda.
The sooner we admit we're in a rut, the sooner we can start working to get out of it- whatever that takes......
Posted by: luis | July 31, 2007 at 09:29
The Daily Mirror yesterday claimed an exclusive that Brown had pencilled in October 25 for polling day. That's half term holiday in England when thousands of voters will be on autumn breaks. Not sure which party that hurts most - but they would all be hit by Cam's plans to super tax the cheap airlines they're using for their hol.
I don't believe that Labour is 9% ahead, certainly he's not in East Anglia although I can see Brown's attraction in the north and Scotland. If Tories have no councillors in the big cities north of the Mersey and the Don, just how are we going to get an MP elected.
Finally, Tapestry writes: "Disappesaring Lib Dems help Conservatives as we have many marginals with LD while Labour have few."
Yes - but Tories gaining from Lib Dems is opposition party taking seats from an opposition party and does not change Labour's overall majority
Posted by: Felixstowe Fiddler | July 31, 2007 at 09:39
Let us all remember that we are now in the "silly season".
Current polls (and other sensationalised stories) should be seen in that context. The politicians are on holiday. Most newspapers are short-staffed now for the same reason, and so the hacks are even lazier than usual.
Posted by: Chris Williams | July 31, 2007 at 09:44
"Polls are going to be increasingly pointless as vacationers are abroad"
The word is HOLIDAY - not vacation. We are in the UK.
Posted by: timC | July 31, 2007 at 09:49
I've just read "Cameron dismisses party critics" on the BBC website (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6923497.stm).
How dare he dismiss any Conservatives who has doubts about his leadership style (not to mention concerns about recent events) in this way. This is pure arrogance and it isn't doing the party any favours at all.
As someone who supported the election of Cameroon as leader I'm horrified at the recent turn of events. Most of it he's brought on himself, and I'm ashamed now to admit that I once supported him - it was a big mistake.
Posted by: Paul | July 31, 2007 at 10:05
"another anon - my copy has a different headline to yours. It says - women stay loyal to Cameron."
The only copies that counts are the ones staring out at people on the news stands...
Posted by: another anon | July 31, 2007 at 10:15
"Disappesaring Lib Dems help Conservatives as we have many marginals with LD while Labour have few.
The growing vote for others hurts Labour more than us as BNP pulls 3 labour for every 1 Conservative.
The Brown Bounce was illusory as it was based entirely in the 40% who didn't vote in 2005. Their likelihood to actually vote should have been heavily discounted. "
Good lord, you got more bizaare with each posting.
Tories taking seats from LDs will do nothing to prevent Labour winning a fourth term, it simply moves opposition seats around.In fact, a dip in the LD vote will disproportionately help Labour.Just a a rise in the LD vote helped the Tories take several Labour seats in 2005.
There is no 'growing vote for others' and the vast bulk of the small 'others' vote is made up of Scots and Welsh nats.The BNP are an irrelevance in terms of a general election.Stop trying to project one atypical by election result onto the national stage.No one else does it for good reason, they have no desire to appear foolish.
Virtually every poll discounts people who didn't vote.they are weighted according to likelihood to vote and past vote.How is life on Pluto these days?
Posted by: another anon | July 31, 2007 at 10:26
With recent polls showing such
disparate results, what is clear is the need for the party to concentrate its efforts and raise awareness of the failing's of Labour.
Gordo is not above these failings, indeed he is the architect, having held the purse strings for the last 10 years and frustated all the spending plans of Blair. Indeed, whilst Blair expounded the money spent, Brown was very carefully ensuring that it all stayed in the Treasury and wasn't spent.
It really is time for DC and all the party to start singing from the same hymn sheet, particularly if they have any thoughts towards winning an election.
The duty of an opposition is to oppose and to represent the views of constituents, DC would do well to remember that and spread his agenda to be a little more inclusive.
Posted by: George Hinton | July 31, 2007 at 10:29
Regarding Ali Miraj, Cameron has come out and said that Miraj asked for a peerage hours before criticising him for a lack of substance.
Cant we all just calm down before we do ourselves a mischief?
Posted by: James Maskell | July 31, 2007 at 10:41
The polls are not producing disparate results they are pretty consistent, Labour are in the high 30's Tories in the low 30's
The only bone of contention is the level of Libdem support, this is always difficult to gauge. Many Labour supporters in particular become 'tactical' during a GE, about 3% so when asked which party they will vote for, they have a tendency to give their party allegiance, which is Labour, when they actually vote, they vote Libdem, (anti-Tory) so 15% in a poll, will become at least 18% in a GE.
Posted by: david | July 31, 2007 at 10:42
You really know when a site like this as lost it and become a complete laughing stock when people seriously believe that the solution to the partys problems is to replace George Osborne with John Redwood.
Not only would this be an absurd act of back to the future it would be like replacing Captain Kirk with Mr Spock!
Posted by: Jack Stone | July 31, 2007 at 11:00
As for the male/female split in Tory support is it not a historical fact that the Tories have a higher level of support among women?
Usually, in fact if only women had been voting then the Conservative Party would have won an overall majority in every single General Election from 1945 to 1992, the difference was narrower in the 1980's and has been narrower from 1997 as well - in fact in 1997 for the first time Labour got more votes among women than any other party and although in 2001 the gap narrowed substantially, in 2005 Labour's vote among women held up much better than than among men so this may be something that has changed.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | July 31, 2007 at 11:23
The growing vote for others hurts Labour more than us as BNP pulls 3 labour for every 1 Conservative.
You are always claiming that the others are going up, in more recent years they have tended to pick up a lot of the protest votes in mid term only to fall away nearer the General Election.
They have been up and they have been down, in fact the signs are that Labour has been attracting back support it had lost to smaller parties, the Conservative Party remains vulnerable to losing support to UKIP and the English Democrats.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | July 31, 2007 at 11:27
"Polls are going to be increasingly pointless as vacationers are abroad"
The word is HOLIDAY - not vacation. We are in the UK.
Posted by: timC | July 31, 2007 at 09:49
HOLIDAY is an abbreviation for HOLY DAY so I use it only for Public Holidays...when people disappear for a fortnight of sangria I call it VACATION
It is from the French into Middle English.....our Courts even "Vacate" cases
Posted by: ToMTom | July 31, 2007 at 12:36
You really know when a site like this as lost it and become a complete laughing stock when people seriously believe that the solution to the partys problems is to replace George Osborne with John Redwood.
Not only would this be an absurd act of back to the future it would be like replacing Captain Kirk with Mr Spock!
Posted by: Jack Stone | July 31, 2007 at 11:00
You know it is an excellent idea when The Southend Troll spouts off his usual inane gibberish. To then pitch it at the level of a TV fantasy shows how detached from reality Jack Stone has become over years of isolation from reality
Posted by: ToMTom | July 31, 2007 at 12:49
I'd replace George Osborne with either Dominic Grieve or the much under-estimated Phillip Hammond.
I've met both of them twice when they came to speak, and are highly intelligent, full of ideas, and sound on financial matters. They both seem to have ideas about the nuts and bolts of domestic policy. They come over well.
Posted by: Joe James Broughton | July 31, 2007 at 13:09
Redwood would command respect. Unlike Cameron, Osborne seems a little bit elitist and lacking in gravitas. My God, I'm backing jack.
YAA, BNP are launching in 500 Constituencies this year. Others are polling at 11% now, up from 7% at the 2005GE. The extra is very likely BNP growth. At 5% they would swing the result of maybe 100 seats.
Sorry if it sounds foolish to be pointing out things that are not covered by the main media. I think it's quite fun.
Where we face Lib Dems as our main opponent, is it not common sense to suggest that if their support is going down, this might assist us in these Constituencies? Or is life so complicated now?
Posted by: tapestry | July 31, 2007 at 13:15
Miraj is only a rerun of the YAWN Tony Lit story. Seems like they are running out of new material to play the Get cameron game with. Same moment as the Brown Bounce starts to look like a media fantasy.
Read John Redwood's blog. He's a clear thinker, who can see what needs doing. One of the best minds the Party possesses, ministerial experience - should be on the front bench. He would vulcanise the rubbery texture of cameron's current team.
Posted by: tapestry | July 31, 2007 at 13:21
At 5% they would swing the result of maybe 100 seats
So far they haven't even managed 1% of the national vote in a General Election and one supposes that they are putting up candidates mainly in their best prospective constituencies.
Even if they got 5% of the vote it would only swing anything if it was in a marginal constituency and it's not going to make much difference if it's people who otherwise wouldn't vote and/or in safe seats.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | July 31, 2007 at 13:53
Others are polling at 11% now, up from 7% at the 2005GE.
You are comparing a mid term opinion poll with a General Election result, the number of votes for others always drops in an actual election as voters realise they have a choice between the person they want to win and someone with a prospect of winning.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | July 31, 2007 at 13:58
But of course Populus in today's Times has the Tories on their lowest poll rating since before Cameron became leader and Labour increasing again.
http://www.epolitix.com/EN/News/200707/
b5472620-be14-44ef-bbce-615c0c22c35e.htm
Just goes to show that the polls are unreliable and conflicting which is why it is so very worrying that our party is currently being run according to the results of, what are ultimately meaningless, polls and focus groups.
Posted by: Matt Davis | July 31, 2007 at 18:28
Interseting some of the comments about the BNP on various threads. From what I've seen they tend to take more Labour votes than Tory ones. This might explain why Gordo is pretending to be edging further and further right,
Mat
Posted by: Matt Wright | July 31, 2007 at 18:42
"Labour lead just 3% in new independent poll" - just keep deluding yourself "Dave". You and your minions on this left-wing interest website will be blown to bits by Brown at the next general election. Hopefully, when that happens, we'll see a real conservative emerge as leader of the Tory Party. In the meantime I'm happy watching the whole pathetic shambles crumble slowly.
Posted by: Dennis Donnelly | July 31, 2007 at 23:23
another anon - 'Virtually every poll discounts people who didn't vote.they are weighted according to likelihood to vote and past vote.How is life on Pluto these days?'
If you read the ICM poll listed in my blog report, which you obviously haven't done, you would see that the likelihood to vote assessment is the whole problem with these alleged Brown Bounce polls.
You would also see what life on Pluto is really like, without having to continually ask me.
Pluto is being badly affected by a considerable emission of hot gas, generated by spin on earth. Earth is a long way away, but even from here the Brown Bounce is clearly visible as no more than a balloon floating on hot air.
Posted by: Tapestry | August 01, 2007 at 00:01
let me assist you with my blog address -
http://tapestrytalks.typepad.com/tapestry_talks/
Posted by: Tapestry | August 01, 2007 at 00:03
The dream ticket is Davis as leader and Hague as Chancellor.
Of course Hague wants to be leader again but never mind...
Hilarious the way they were all piling in late last week with the same soundbite 'We mustn't lurch to the right' penned by the same scriptwriter. Even Davis's catspaw Derek Conway was ordered to parrot this line on R4.
Why did they all agree to this charade? It's obvious. They all want to keep Dave on life support until the day after the next election. Nobody wants to accept the poisoned chalice at this stage in the game.
And of course they're right. No chance now. Fighting chance after the next parliament, but what a dogfight there will be when Dave is finally kicked into touch.
Posted by: Traditional Tory | August 01, 2007 at 00:20
LoL. That is the worst soviet-style tractor production figures report I've seen in a long time.
This comnpany is reporting an 8% shift *to* Labour on the month (Lab+5, Tory-3) and you report it as Labour lead just 3%!
Did you see that? That was the last of this site's credibility heading out of the door.
LoL.
Posted by: PravdaHome | August 01, 2007 at 06:19