Labour 7% ahead in ICM poll

The Press Association is reporting an ICM poll for tomorrow's News of the World that gives Labour a 35% to 28% lead over the Conservatives.  And just to underline that these headline percentages look very low, the LibDems are down on just 13%.

53% of respondents told ICM that Gordon Brown was best equipped to lead Britain - nearly twice as many as the 27% who had that opinion of David Cameron.

7.25pm: The Sunday Telegraph has just been in touch to say that they have an ICM survey which also has ICM 7% ahead but with much more sensible-sounding headline numbers: Labour 40%, Tories 33% and LibDems 19%.

7.35pm: From PA on The Sunday Telegraph survey: "Some 70% of voters felt it was better for parents to be married.  However, opinion was split on giving tax incentives for marriage, as backed by Mr Cameron this week.  While 49% backed the plan, 44% opposed it."

10.15am on 15th July: We may now have the explanation for the funny NotW numbers.  The question ICM asked was not a usual voting intention but "Now Brown has taken over, and faces Cameron and Campbell, are you feeling warmer to the idea of supporting... Labour/ Conservative/ LibDem etc?"

4pm: Graphic added below.

Comments

[Tory T]

I do not believe these figures for one instant.

Stipulate that icm are the best of all the pollsters, nevertheless, I don't buy that we are under 30% for one solitary minute - recent local by elections show nothing of the sort.

Either a rogue poll or there's something we're not being told about how this one was conducted.

[A H Matlock]

Bloody disaster. What on earth is going on?

[Editor]

Yes, Tory T. There is something odd about these numbers. Compared to last Sunday's ICM poll Labour are down 2%, Tories down 7% and LibDems down 4%. There must be some methodological difference in this poll result...

[Jaz]

Yea right...

ICM are probably very embarassed about this...

[eugene]

About 8 % is missing here....taking other polls into account. I say it could well be a Tory 8 % who were shocked to hear their own party comming up with a stupid reason to put a massive tax on beer....Tories dislike taxes intensely- especially social engineering nannying ones.

The latest IDS stuff on the family is thankfully, far more sensible, and that 8 % plus a bit will be back next week.

[MikeA]

The polls will be all over the place over the next few months. All eyes on Ealing Southall however...

[Editor]

If this is right 'Others' are up from 11% to 24%. Let's wait and see but it's all too odd!

[Tam Large]

The Cameron Effect is beginning to shows its inevitable electoral results. People won't vote for limp blue labour when they can have the real thing: with a leader who looks like one and sounds like one - not just another PR whizz-kid, which is what Dave has been from the start. Pity he killed the Conservative Party just when the public are crying out for the things it used to stand for...

[Edison Smith]

The Conservative party may not exactly be setting the political world alight but it's quite another thing to be below 30% in polling.

Looks like ICM have fukced things right up here.

Did they just sample the Sedgefield constituency or something?!

[Edison Smith]

'Tam Large' - Give over!

This is a rogue poll. Can you honestly suggest, heart of hearts, that we'd only poll 28% of the vote in a general election?? What clap-trap!

You're not Tom Watson MP in disguise are you?!

[Henry Mayhew - ukipper / authentic conservative]

Polls will be pointless until after the party conferences. The best thing the Tories could do after a well-fought Ealing by-election will be to take genuine time off over the Summer before coming out with a raft of policy in the Autumn. Just get completely away for a couple of months. The IDS stuff has been excellent. Enough for now.

[601]

Core Tory vote does won't go below 30% especially after the proposals on the family. When was this poll taken?

Sean Fear how have the Tories doing in recent local by elections, it seems they have been doing O.K.

Any way when it comes to real election results "David Camerons Conservatives" do better than expected e.g. this years local council results.

I bet the Tories will win Ealing Southall.

[Peter Coe]

This is definitely odd; we need to see what the methodology was, but as Tim's noted, there is no reason for Others to be at 24%.

The most obvious explanation is that they're not - that this poll hasn't excluded the "don't knows"; if they had done then the figures would be something like Labour 39%, Conservative 33% Lib Dem 16% - which is perhaps more realistic.

That said, whether or not the don't knows are in or out won't change the fact that Labour's clearly ahead in this poll, whatever the exact percentages are.

That's not entirely unexpected: I think Brown is bedding in better than expected, I don't think the marriage or tax on beer policies have played at all well and maybe the accumulation of bad press going back to Grammar Schools and Quentin Davies is all now piling together, whereas on their own these one-off issues had little negative impact.

[Andrew Woodman]

Something's gone badly wrong with ICM. Don't believe this for a minute.

[Tory T]

Political Betting just posted a Sunday Telegraph poll 40,33,19 - the poster said it was ICM.

Perhaps the same figures rendered differently. I don't know.

Those figures seem far more realistic, but nothing to get worked up about, the honeymoon continues.

Perhaps Brown will call a snap election. Let's hope he does!

[malcolm]

Absolutely awful news if true.I'd thought we'd had a pretty good week with a couple of solid performances from Cameron at PMQ's, the fairly positive comment on the report from IDS and the momentum we appear to be enjoying in Ealing.Let's hope it's a rogue because the alternative is awful to contemplate.

[Edison Smith]

Peter Coe - I disagree when you say the marriage policies didn't play well. Maybe not for a lefty BBC, but I believe that particular policy and the entire Social Justice policy group's findings went down rather well with the public.

If for nothing else because it was a hefty, well thought through document that took two years of study, in contrast to Labour's 'ten a penny' half-baked, knee-jerk policy making.

[Tory T]

Malcolm, you need to wait and see when exactly the polls were taken. Fieldwork period is very important when denoting this sort of thing.

[Edison Smith]

Tory T - Political Betting just posted a Sunday Telegraph poll 40,33,19 - the poster said it was ICM.

I'd actually be more concerned with the result given by Tory T. Labour hitting 40% of the vote pretty smoothly without any particular fuss, which the Conservatives have failed mostly to do, even in the dying days of the Blair regime.

[Tory T]

Iain Dale reports on PB.com they are both ICM polls taken 11th-13th

"From PA:

The prospect of an early general election moved closer tonight as a poll showed Gordon Brown is backed by almost twice as many people as David Cameron to lead the country.

Labour also enjoys a seven-point lead over the Tories as the “Brown bounce” continues, according to an ICM survey for the News of the World.

The poll came as it emerged that key Cabinet ally Ed Miliband had been told to get to work on Labour’s manifesto for the next general election.

The process is expected to continue through the autumn, but will fuel speculation that Mr Brown could go to the country next spring - two years before an election is necessary.

The ICM poll found that 53% of people felt Mr Brown was best equipped to lead Britain, compared to 27% for Mr Cameron.

Earlier this year, the same pollsters gave the Tory leader a five-point lead over Mr Brown on their personal ratings.

Labour has also established a significant lead over the Tories, by 35% to 28%, having fallen behind in many polls during the final months of Tony Blair’s tenure.

Sir Menzies Campbell’s leadership is likely to face further questions after the poll put the Liberal Democrats on just 13%.

:: ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults by telephone on July 11 to 13. Results were weighted to the profile of all adults.

end

Page 2

(reopens)

A second opinion poll tonight also gave Labour a seven-point lead over the Tories when voters were asked who they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow.

An ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph put Labour on 40% compared to 33% for the Tories and 19% for the Lib Dems - enough to give Mr Brown a majority of more than 100 seats.

It is the biggest poll lead for Labour in an ICM poll since September 2005.

The poll gave some encouragement to Tory leader David Cameron, however, suggesting strong support for his stance on the importance of marriage.

Some 70% of voters felt it was better for parents to be married.

However, opinion was split on giving tax incentives for marriage, as backed by Mr Cameron this week.

While 49% backed the plan, 44% opposed it.

:: ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on July 11 to 13. Results were weighted to the profile of all adults.

by Iain Dale July 14th, 2007 at 7:11 pm

[Daniel VA]

Awful. Unbelievably bloody awful. However...

[paraphrases Michael Winner]Calm down dear, it's an opinion poll![/paraphrases Michael Winner]

[Alex Fisher]

So on the same day...

ICM (NOTW) - LAB 35, CON 28, LD 13
= total 76%

ICM (SunTel) - LAB 40, CON 33, LD 19
= total 92%.

Where have 16% of voters gone from one poll to the other? 76% is ludicrously low for a three-main-party total and suggests to me we should simply ignore what is surely a very rogue poll.

[malcolm]

Well Tory T, this seems very bad news indeed. Beyond even your spinning skills methinks!

[Umbrella man]

What are ICM playing at!?

[601]

The Tory candidate in a key by-election is a Labour donor who posed just weeks ago for photographs at a fundraiser with Tony Blair, it can be revealed.

Tony Lit, 34, the wealthy head of an Asian radio station, became a member of the Conservative Party only days before he was unveiled as their surprise choice to fight the vacant seat of Ealing Southall later this week.

As they paraded him on June 28, Tory campaigners hailed Mr Lit as the perfect candidate, with good looks and charm and a high profile in the west London constituency, where they hoped he could secure a massive coup by routing Labour from the safe seat.

[Tory T]

Ya think, Malc?

Try this:

Same pollster. Same days. Two completely different results.

It's Brown's honeymoon, so what? Start panicking if the pattern goes on til post-conference. Let me see another pollster before I go looking for the pearl-handled revolver.

And you know every cloud has a silver lining. Maybe, just maybe, Brown goes to the country on this!

Maybe we get an autumn election!

Conversely, if he doesn't take advantage, then these polls don't matter a bit. So either way, we're OK.

[ID(iot)S]

"Polls will be pointless until after the party conferences"

Sorry Henry, but you are talking total crap. This is simply a Tory line to discount bad news.

Remember no Tory suggested ignoring the poll bounce Cameron enjoyed, just like no Tory calls for defectors to them to resign etc.

It's just partisan crap. Look around. People seem to want Boris for Mayor, and at the moment, prefer Brown to Cameron.

[ID(iot)S]

"Polls will be pointless until after the party conferences"

Sorry Henry, but you are talking total crap. This is simply a Tory line to discount bad news.

Remember no Tory suggested ignoring the poll bounce Cameron enjoyed, just like no Tory calls for defectors to them to resign etc.

It's just partisan crap. Look around. People seem to want Boris for Mayor, and at the moment, prefer Brown to Cameron.

[Tory T]

"Remember no Tory suggested ignoring the poll bounce Cameron enjoyed"

Plenty of ukippers did, droogie. It was all wholly based on Brown and Blair, nothing to do with DC, etc.

It's a honeymoon poll. Let Brown call an election and see if you're right!

[Daniel VA]

I would imagine these two sets of figures are actually derived from the same dataset, with the Sunday Telegraph headline figures adjusted (as per the norm) to remove 'don't knows'.

[malcolm]

I assume 'droogie' is Chad but who is Henry? Anyway off to a party to forget politics for a while. Have a good Saturday night everybody!

[Michael Davidson]

This is terrible news. I could handle Labour poll leads of about 2-3% but 7%? That's worse than I thought. And they've hit the 'magic' 40% mark.

[Traditional Tory]

Tory T - do not believe these figures for one instant.

No of course not. Keep taking the medication until either the desired result appears or the brain seizes up.

Time to get used to the fact that the ever-fickle public have tired of the Cameron stunt. Well it has all worn a little thin now.

Maybe we ought to repost some of those wild predictions about the nosedive Labour were going to perform when Brown became PM. They should cheer up the denizens of Roon cloud-cuckoo-land.

Now I'll tell you our best hope for the future.

Retire Cameron and the other non-Tories, thank them for whatever it is they're supposed to have done, and put the party back in the hands of good solid men who can be trusted to appeal to the naturally-conservative instincts of the public.

We need a latter-day Baldwin to lead the party. Somebody with the solidity of Brown, but a sense of humour.

Someone like David Davis. Make the change at the right time for a 'Davis Bounce' at the next election.

Lets 'change to win'

[Tony Makara]

Even if the polls give Labour a 7% lead I'd prefer an election now. Such an election if Labour were to win it would only give them an extra two years in power and then the following election would see them in meltdown for sure. Gordon Brown has been releasing a rush of regurgitated policies which could be read as a sign that he's going to go early.

[Michael Davidson]

Tony Makara - if Brown calls an election now and wins then that allows him to have up to 5 years in power, not 2 - I think you've misunderstood how it would work.

If Brown calls for a general election, then it will be a normal general election, not a national by-election.

[Tory T]

Posted on political betting

"I’ve just realised from Iain Dale’s figures that these are not two ICM polls, they are ONE SINGLE ICM poll using different weights or likelihood to vote filters.

1003 adults - exactly - in both.

That means it was ONE poll, and is being reported two ways in two different papers."

[Tony Makara]

Michael, if Labour hang on and see out their term they get three years in power, from this point on. If the go to the people now and win they get five years, from this point on. They would be risking everything for an extra 24 months in power.

[Adam Tugwell]

If Tory T is right and this survey is effectively only hours old, where does that leave the IDS Report?

[Michael Davidson]

Tony, ok but why does that make it a good thing if Brown calls an election now? Given the state of the polls, Labour could even be looking at an increased majority. And there's nothing to suggest that they can't go on to win the general election after that - it's just too far ahead to say.

[CDM]

What awful polls! IDS has obviously had far too much exposure.

[jorgen]

where does that leave the IDS Report?

Maybe people don't believe that there is real poverty in the UK. "Relative poverty" with "wealth distribution" is hardly a vote-winner.

New motto: "Change back to win!"

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown needs to call an early election for the following reasons. There are serious underlying inflationary pressures that, so far, are being kept under check by the artificially high level of the pound. However the strength of the pound cannot last forever and once it falls inflation will soar. The Bank of England will then have to raise interest rates, hurting borrowers and homeowners. Gordon Brown knows the pound has almost certainly peaked, he knows inflation is just around the corner. He cannot wait. He must call an early general election.

[Adam Tugwell]

'Maybe people don't believe that there is real poverty in the UK. "Relative poverty" with "wealth distribution" is hardly a vote-winner.'

Unlikely that there is any maybe involved here. It doesn't really explain a sudden surge to Mr 'cost u a lot' Brown though does it?

[jorgen]

Adam, the poll is dated after IDS' presentation.

[Umbrella man]

Can you imagine how Platform 10/ HiltonHome would report this poll? Here is my stab at what you can look forward to:

"Further evidence tonight that Labour are being lulled into a false sense of security. Their 40% number is derisory compared to the 45% that they were expecting after changing from Blair to Brown. If they call an autumn election as we expect that will be perfect for us. Cameron v Brown on the TV everyday will show swing voters that our leader has the charisma and recycling skills and Brown is so much the analogue politician in this digital, aga oven age. The Project to deliver 10 Downing Street for David Cameron is on course. Rejoice!"

[Tory Lady]

Alexanders role was testimony that an election is a foot in October 2007. Since then we have had great leadership coverage of Brown on the TV involving himself in political stunts with Children.
The Regional Ministers are the Local Voicepiece for the election, and Goodies and Sweetners are to be announced. The Regional Ministers are Browns answer to the Lothian Question.
Brown will emphasise Affordable Housing and his big Construction Build is a Top priority with the Cymbals clashing.
The Pre-Budget review has been brought forward to early October, and great sweetners will be announced.
Parts of the Queens Speech are already being Leaked as Softners.
We Tories under Cameron are fast asleep as Brown is forcing the Leakage of Policies causing fiascos, like the 7p on booze, 5 pound to get in art galleries and Museums, not forgetting the Grammar School row. Mud Sticks in the eyes of the electorate. Big Fund Raising events are underway by Brown raising amounts of up to half a million- except that is for Oystons donation which has been returned.
Depressing, yes but my money is on October just as Brown announces the Return of the Triumphant troops from Iraq.

[Adam Tugwell]

Jorgen, no arguement. If responsible, this report has had a pretty profound impact and says a lot about the voting audience... Wasn't this considered before release one wonders?

[Adam Powell]

Believe me. There will not be an early election.

[Edison Smith]

"Tony, ok but why does that make it a good thing if Brown calls an election now? Given the state of the polls, Labour could even be looking at an increased majority..." - Michael Davidson.

Haha! That's hilarious. Brown winning an election with an increased majority?!

It seems people are already over-worrying about the Brown bounce, just as Tim had warned we should not do on this very site a couple of weeks ago.

Let Brown have his month in the sun, it's only a matter of time before people notice they have a walking corpse as Prime Minister.

As Paddy Pants-Down said earlier in the week - he's only two weeks in the job and he's already running at the outer-most limit of his powers. He hasn't much left in the tank.

[Tony Makara]

It will be interesting to see how the Liberals will react if their is a hung parliament. Gordon Brown, as we know, is already trying to court them, and the Liberals, being big on the consensus politics ethic, will jump at a chance to form a 'peoples cabinet' all in the name of 'democracy'. Anyone wanting change has only the Conservative option left. So perhaps a lib/lab love-in might be a good thing in the long run.

[TomTom]

I wish pollsters would stop asking stupid questions like - would you get married for a tax allowance ?

Of course they could ask - Do you think the taxpayer should make unmarried parents financially better off than married parents ?

That would be an interesting poll question....along with John Hutton, Minister is selling his £550,000 house in London for £1 million....do you as a taxpayer think the wife of Abu Hamza, Nagat living in the same street should be funded as a single parent to live there with her 8 children at a cost of £1000/week ?

[Edison Smith]

If the Lib Dems are seen to be hopping into bed with Labour in anyway before the election, it will kill off the Lib Dems in the south.

You'd expect places like Bath to go blue.

[TomTom]

I wish pollsters would stop asking stupid questions like - would you get married for a tax allowance ?

Of course they could ask - Do you think the taxpayer should make unmarried parents financially better off than married parents ?

That would be an interesting poll question....along with John Hutton, Minister is selling his £550,000 house in London for £1 million....do you as a taxpayer think the wife of Abu Hamza, Nagat living in the same street should be funded as a single parent to live there with her 8 children at a cost of £1000/week ?

[Traditional Tory]

For much of the Tory grassroots the only reason for supporting Cameron has been his lead in the polls.

They've held their noses as the 'A List', gay rights, claptrap about unmarried mothers and the rest of Cameron's tatty PC caravanserai has passed within sniffing distancy, constantly repeating the mantra 'He's our winning ticket.'

That lead has now - as I have repeatedly predicted - dissipated like a morning mist.

I give him three months to pull things round before the great revolt commences.

[Michael Davidson]

I'm sorry but some of you are living in a fantasy world. Wake up and smell the coffee - the Cameron project is crumbling before our very eyes and you're still trying to spin this as some sort of victory.

What was the point of all this 'Change to win' nonsense if as soon as Brown takes over, Labour rocket ahead again? Surely if Cameron's ideas were successful they should be able to hold up to some extent against any 'Brown bounce'? But they haven't.

We're right back again to position we were in before Cameron took over. The last 18 months have been for nothing. And with Brown bound to pull the troops out of Iraq soon, I can only see the Labour polling higher right before election time. Snap out of your denial and understand that things are going wrong and we need to change.

[Adam Tugwell]

'I give him three months to pull things round before the great revolt commences.'

Sounds like you're enjoying yourself here Traditional Tory?

[Traditional Tory]

Sounds like you're enjoying yourself here Traditional Tory?

I take no pleasure whatsoever in the damage which has been inflicted on my party by the pack of PC leftists who have spent the past five years or so desperately trying to hi-jack it.

Cameron is only their patsy, anyway. When he first got into parliament he masqueraded as a right-winger.

[Edison Smith]

Michael Davidson - you're panicking!

Brown's face has been everywhere these past two weeks. His face has been on News 24 twenty-four hours a day! He's on the 10 O'Clock news playing tennis! He's on the 6 O' Clock news because he's changed the style of his ties!!

It's almost saturation point. Of course people are going to lap up his daft flag-waving ideas and announcements about school sports days, but these things don't last, especially when you're the former chancellor who's been in charge of all failed domestic policy in the past 10 years.

Everyone's having a go at Cameron. What would your man Davis have done differently in the past fortnight to get his greying chops in the papers??!

I can see it now: "Tories Say: Bring Back Birching...."

[Tony Makara]

The Brown bounce will pass. How far are we into the Brown honeymoon period, not even a month yet. The Labour government is a stale product masquerading as fresh meat. Gordon Brown is pulling re-hashed ideas on a daily basis. How long can he keep that up? Even today he is promising to fit up the unemployed with tailor made jobs, "if the jobs are available" Brown says. He is all promise and no delivery. Don't overestimate Brown. He isn't so competent as the tax credits fiasco showed. Soon the plastic chancellor now premier will be exposed for the incompetent faliure that he is.

[Adam Powell]

Traditional Tory, please will you give us a brief synopsis of what your solution to the problems of the Conservative Party would be?

[Peter Coe]

[email protected] - well, the evidence is there in the later figures posted isn't it - a vast majority support marriage; almost as large as those who support motherhood and apple pie, but the public is evenly divided about social engineering the tax system to redistribute from poor single people to affluent rich ones.

And of the less than half who back IDS's bad idea, over half will be people like you: died in the wool Tories who won't vote any other way. In other words, three quarters of the non-core Tory electorate (a figure that numbers far more than "leftie BBC types") disapproves of that policy.

And as for the public being impressed by the weightiness of the report, I suspect somewhat less than 0.01% of the electorate a) is aware of the report and b) have taken the trouble to read it.

[Chris Whiteside]

There are two equal and opposite mistake that politicians can make with opinion polls.

One mistake is to assume that, when poll after poll gives the same message, they're all wrong if it's not what you want to hear.

The opposite error is to panic - or be too pleased - as a result of a single poll. (And it appears that these "two" polls are actually different presentations of the same poll.)

Some polls are incompetently run, or slanted, or happen to get wrong results - even if polls are perfectly conducted one in twenty will produce results outside the 95% confidence limits, which means quite a way off.

But most pollsters are not incompetent, most of them try to learn from their mistakes, and most of them get it more or less right most of the time. So if a whole string of polls suggest that someone's position has improved or got worse, it probably has.

Hence this poll showing Brown 7% ahead is not good news for the Conservatives, and if we get a whole series of polls like that it will indicate that he is going down better with the electorate than many of us hoped.

But it is much, much too early to panic. Even if Brown does turn out to be a more formidable opponent than some people had expected, I can see only one way he is likely to increase his majority - and that would be if we were stupid enough to abandon attempts to reach out to the centre and go back to the "Core Vote" strategy which turned defeat into disaster in 1997 and 2001.

The next election is not going to be a walkover for either side. It never was. But there is still everything to play for.

[Tory Lady]

Adam Powell at 21.35. Your Answer Lies in the state of Conservatism in Wales,Scotland,The North of England and Cornwall. Tories are hated in these areas,
Because Posh A list London Prima Donnas are being planted in the Seats.

[Josh]

Cammy can't be toppled. That would be entirely counterproductive. If we take from the last few polls that the next election is a lost cause under Cammy, changing leader now will not save it. It will likely make it worse but showing the party as a divided, treacherous grouping constantly gunning for each other when they don't show themselves to be useful.

The choice is twofold: Stick with Cammy and lose with dignity or knife Cammy and lose in disgrace. Which option do you think enhances the Conservative chances for 2013?

[Yozzer]

What a bloody larf.For months you numptys have been living on opinion polls and nothing but opinion polls.Now the polls are starting to turn it's all "I don't believe this poll" or "polls don't really matter". The fact is you all bought the hypothetical question of 'who would make the best PM' before Brown was actually PM, it appears Tory Central Office also bought this 'fact'.Cameron's huge lead overBrown has now been reversed the second Brown steps on the stage and policy-lite Cameron has nothing to fall back on.

He's been outflanked by the Lib Dems on tax cuts and Brown has hit the ground running by starting a new post Blair agenda.Meanwhile, Cameron is stuck attempting to be Blair mark 2 with his smary photo opportunities and focus on PR.

[Traditional Tory]

Traditional Tory, please will you give us a brief synopsis of what your solution to the problems of the Conservative Party would be?

Sideline the PC Socialists in our party. Put Conservatives back in charge.

Yozzer at 22:25 says it all.

The laugh is well and truly on the 'Roons.

[Henry Mayhew - ukipper]

I am not talking total crap, I(diot)s. There is no point throwing all your troops into the place where the opposition is strongest - i.e. the Summer months just after a change of Prime Minister. Much better to refresh away from politics and double check all the PR implications of new policy such as allowing charging by museums and 7p on a pint. You can then come back hard in September wresting back the limelight from Brown in time for the party conferences. Politicians get very tired due to the relentless of modern media and party demands and the weight of legislation.

Although a supporter of the party my moniker suggests, I have been impressed by Cameron over the last months. This marriage tax proposal is excellent and I look forward to more Sound policy. He is heading in the right direction for a change. Don't undermine him now.

[Realist]

The IDS drink issue hit us hard last weekend - everyone in the real world was saying how stupid it was. This overshadowed the other proposals. However, the marriage thing also played badly with all those voters who "live in sin" and have divorced - it was seen as a criticism of their lifestyle.

I also think that all those shots of IDS on sink estates looked a little patronising - Lording it over the poor people who need the double-barrelled one to save them.

We simple appear too posh and out of touch.

[Tapestry]

The same polling organsation has 'others' on 8% in one poll here, and 24% in the other. Sounds like a cock-up - and a convenient one for a bit of pro-Brown spin in some Sundays. My God they're getting desperate.

[Matt Wright]

Normally I would be sceptical of an early election and would expect Brown to dither...and yet I wonder because others will be advising him and he must know things are more likely to get worse for him than better after this initial bounce. I don't think he will go for the Autumn for practical reasons but might go for May 2008 which would coincide with local elections,

Matt

[Josh]

One bit of good news. If it looks like a Labour win, then Brown won't be bothering with any "constitutional reform" of the electoral system. We can keep FPTP for as long as Labour think it suits their purpose.

I'll say that I want to keep FPTP, but I think concerns about PR shutting out the Tories are exaggerated. Under FPTP, Labour could have parliamentary majority with a Tory plurality of the vote. If PR worked as advertised (which it doesn't) then under PR, there is still the possibility of the Tories being able to form a minority administration just as the SNP have done in Scotland.

I believe the party with plurality has the moral right to govern regardless of what stitch up deals the losing parties put together. That's why I'm glad the rainbow coalition in Wales fell through. Labour did win that election and so should be leading the government. That's also why I support the SNP administration in Scotland in so far as they have the right to power (my support stops there btw).

As I say, I still support FPTP, but not because I fear PR as a stitch up to lock out the Tories in perpetuity.

[Richard North]

Looks like Cameron is in trouble with Tony Lit as well.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=468450&in_page_id=1770

[Michael Davidson]

Indeed Richard, as I asked somewhere else, why have we not got a post on this story? Hopefully the editor will provide one soon?

If Tony Lit is a Labour-lover in disguise then why on earth have we got him as our candidate? It's an absolute outrage.

We've pretty much blown our chance of winning that seat now.

[ACT]

On the basis of that Tony Lit story - he is not fit to be the Tory candidate in Ealing, and he does not deserve the votes of Tories in the seat.

Quite a few questions arise over this disaster, not least: what did Cameron & Maude know, and when did they know it?

Two choices here for the fanatical Roons: either, Cameron and Maude couldn't be bothered to check the credentials of the man they forced on the Association as the candidate, or, they knew exactly what his credentials were (and that they included giving money to Labour and posing to have his picture taken with Blair at a Labour fundraiser less than a month ago). Which is it do you think? My money's on the latter.

[ACT]

I should of course have added, pace money, we now of course know where Lit's is. As was said a long time ago, on a continent far, far away: follow the money.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Realist @ 22.57 - So Realist you think that double-barrelled names are too posh to visit sink estates, what do suggest a 'Fred' or a 'Sid' or an 'Ahmed' or a 'Leroy' or a 'Wong', and dressed in tatty jeans and a back-to-front baseball cap???? No you would still say that was patronising. Or is it that you prefer the crumpled suit type who appears to wear the same suit wherever they go even to play the odd ball of tennis, and probably to sleep in as well, maybe that is YOUR natural hero!!

[Schlieffen Plan]

Says it all really....the pix are awful btw...

Tory parliamentary candidate cosies up to Blair in photos
By SIMON WALTERS
David Cameron's hopes of winning a vital parliamentary election have suffered an embarrassing blow after it emerged his party's candidate posed with Tony Blair at a Labour fundraising event last month.
The Tory candidate in Thursday's poll in Ealing Southall, Tony Lit, the boss of Asian radio station Sunrise, queued up to be photographed with the Prime Minister.
In addition, Sunrise paid £4,800 for the table where Mr Lit was sitting and successfully bid £4,000 for a trip to America including dinner with Hillary Clinton, a close personal friend of Mr Blair and his wife, Cherie.
Mr Cameron put his credibility on the line by personally selecting former male model Mr Lit, 34, who joined the party only a week before he was chosen. He stood down as managing director of Sunrise when the by-election campaign started.
Campaigning with Mr Lit last week, Mr Cameron said: "Tony Lit is a brilliant candidate. I am really pleased to be here supporting him. He is the only candidate campaigning on the issues that matter to the local community."
The Labour event, Celebrating Diversity, took place on June 20 at the Riverbank Plaza hotel near the House of Commons and was attended by a host of senior Labour figures. The Labour Party released a copy of the £4,800 cheque paid by Sunrise.
It is the latest episode in a tit-for-tat war between the parties to poach each other's supporters. Gordon Brown scored the first blow when veteran Tory MP Quentin Davies defected to Labour. The Tories hit back by revealing that Mr Brown's Trade Minister, ex-CBI boss Sir Digby Jones, considered running as their candidate for London mayor. Mr Cameron achieved another coup last week when five Labour councillors in Ealing defected to the Tories.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown seized on Mr Lit's Labour links to appeal to Conservative supporters to back Labour. "As we reach out to those who share our vision of a better Britain of rising aspirations and new and better opportunities, I urge all who share our values - from progressives in all areas of Britain to moderate Conservatives - to join us in making Britain the country it can be,' said Mr Brown.
Labour MP Joan Ryan said: "David Cameron's personal intervention to overrule local Tories and appoint a candidate has totally backfired.”
In the 2005 General Election, the Tories came third behind the Liberal Democrats in Ealing and face a huge task to overturn Labour's 11,441 majority. Mr Cameron has ordered his MPs to back Mr Lit's campaign in an attempt to secure the party's first by-election gain for 25 years.
The by-election follows the death of veteran Labour MP Piara Khabra. Labour's 60-year-old candidate, Virendra Sharma has been described as having 'the charisma of a breeze block'. But Labour claims his low profile could now be an advantage over flamboyant Mr Lit.
Mr Lit said: "As a businessman, I did indeed attend this event for the Asian business community, but like many British Asians I feel the Labour Government does not have the answers to the challenges that currently face the country.
"Increasingly, the Asian community is leaving the Labour Party and joining David Cameron's modern and inclusive Conservative Party."
Curiously, despite successfully bidding in the Labour auction for the tickets to Atlanta, including dinner with Mrs Clinton, Sunrise has not yet paid for them.
A Labour spokesman pointed out that when they do pay up, Sunrise will have to be declared as a Labour donor.
Together with the £4,800 it paid for last month's Labour dinner, it takes them over the £5,000 threshold above which parties must declare donors.

[Ed]

What I want to know is, why wasn't there a proper selection process?

[ACT]

Because Dave, arch localist, knew better than the locals . . .

[Daniel VA]

General von Schlieffen, rather than clog up threads by copy-pasting articles, why not just post a link and let people make up their own minds whether to go and read it or not?

Just a thought.

[Michael Davidson]

Well Daniel, it's probably wise to post the whole thing since we haven't actually got a proper post discussing this story so people wouldn't have a clue what's going on.

I see it's made the front page of the Sunday Telegraph with that photo. Not good news at all - I actually thought we had a chance of winning that by-election. Not any more.

[Opinicus]

It doesn't matter if this is a Brown bounce or not, either of these results is very poor indeed and comes on a couple of weeks of merely poor numbers.

Of course David Cameron is the best leader that we've got and it would be stupid to knife him until after the defeat in October. That said the situation is not irredemable. The person whose head we need is Hilton. He has read Blair's manual of how to fight Thatcher and Major and is using it to fight Brown. Why do Old Etonian generals always insist on re-fighting the last war?

This election is about cynicism, about the collapse of hope that anything can be done to improve Britain, about the failure of tax increases to pay for better public services, about a country in decline again. Nobody wants the heir to Blair, nobody wants the three party fix. People want hope; they want a plan; they want a way out and up.

If these figures hold up over the summer there will be a general election this autumn. At present, we will lose for the fourth time in a row. I don't think we've done that badly since Newcastle and Walpole.
Its time for the pretty and media savvy inhabitants of CCHQ to admit that a shared brain cell (like the three witches' eye) is insufficient; even if like Mr Litt, you are a former male model, if you can't see that you will nonetheless only look like a laughing stock, if you allegedly pay £9000 at a Labour fundraiser a few weeks before you become a Conservative candidate

[Teck Khong]

What if Tony Lit won, and then defected to Labour?

[Tam Large]

Why should he defect to Labour? The Lit Flit from Labout to Cameron Party has shown more clearly than ever that New Labour and Blue Labour are interchangable and indistinguishable.

[Teck Khong]

Hi Tam, when I stood in Bradford North, I saw how community activists switch sides, how one day my posters were on the front windows and then red ones appearing the next. I sincerely hope it's just a haunting ether that has lingered in my mind and has no substance in our fortunes in Ealing Southall.

[TomTom]

the marriage thing also played badly with all those voters who "live in sin" and have divorced - it was seen as a criticism of their lifestyle.

You cannot run a society based upon the interests of cohabitees and divorces....if so we should abolish ALL financial support for unmarried parents since the majority is not prepared to pay to raise another man's children to a higher standard of living than their own.

If we can fund Abu Hamza's family to the tune of £52.000 pa tax-free then we should ask how many families must pay income tax to cover the living expenses of the family of Abu Hamza

[HF]

I guess that the idea of more tax on booze bombed with voters..........

I fear that we will have many more of these own goals as each of the policy groups report. Many of the newspapers are out to get us and whatever positive proposals they may have will be lost because they will find the "bad pr" issues.

We need to stop the release of policy news and leave it to Coulson to bring some common sense to the release of news.

[jorgen]

We need to stop the release of policy news and leave it to Coulson to bring some common sense to the release of news.

You mean spin?

[Yet Another Anon]

Haha! That's hilarious. Brown winning an election with an increased majority?!
The Conservative Party has only 198 seats, the fact is that there are a lot of non-Conservative seats that Labour can pickup - the Liberal Democrats have 64 seats, there is the seat held by Respect, a couple of Independents - a lot of the seats that those parties hold were safe Labour seats and Labour will be looking to regain those, so the Conservative Party can even gain seats and Labour could increase it's majority by regaining what were formerly safe seats.

That's why I'm glad the rainbow coalition in Wales fell through. Labour did win that election and so should be leading the government.
Labour's vote in Wales collapsed, not as much as had been predicted and it leaves them continuing to dominate Welsh politics, but more because Plaid Cymru just don't have the appeal in Wales that the SNP have in Scotland. On the other hand Labour's vote in Scotland actually held up very well. Labour didn't really win in Wales so much as hold on, in Scotland the SNP and Labour ended up almost neck and neck and there could be a coalition involving Labour before the next full Scottish Parliamentary elections because the SNP\Green coalition is in minority, equally the Labour administration in Wales could still fall apart and be replaced by another minority or some other coalition.

[Torygirl]

Tam Large | July 15, 2007 at 01:21

The Lit Flit from Labout to Cameron Party has shown more clearly than ever that New Labour and Blue Labour are interchangable and indistinguishable.

Couldn't have put it better myself. What is Andy Coulson doing to earn his £270,000?

[Tony Makara]

Labour won the last election with only backing from 21.59% percent of the electorate. In other words almost eight out of every ten people didn't want to vote Labour at the last election. I see nothing to suggest that Labour have gained popularity since 2005, in spite of snapshot polls.

I know a number of Labour voters who are saying they won't be voting Labour again. Their common rationale being that they believe it is only when Labour loses power that the Labour party will re-invent itself and will become a party they respect again.

[TomTom]

I know a number of Labour voters who are saying they won't be voting Labour again.

a) they may well abstain

b) they will not want to vote for any party that resembles Labour

c) it has little importance if Conservative voters feel the same way about their party

[TomTom]

backing from 21.59% percent of the electorate.

So true...and only 15% Labour members ever voted for Blair as leader

but only 61% electorate actually voted and 39% Abstained - so Labour received 35% votes actually cast

[Traditional Tory]

What if Tony Lit won, and then defected to Labour?

Does he need to? Sounds like he's a member already! Talk about belt and braces.

OK let's have the head of the guy who parachuted 'Tony' Lit into the constituency. Oh silly me. Slap on the wrist. The Leader is always right.

[Adam Tugwell]

'it has little importance if Conservative voters feel the same way about their party'

Quite right. Too much time is being spent worrying about which head is currently in front and not enough on the fitness of the beast itself. Isn't it about time we stopped responding to what Brown & Labour are doing and concentrate on doing the best that we can as a Party?

[Martin Bristow]

It is fair to say that the ICM polls look very odd.The best course of action is to wait for a few polls to confirm the Labour advantage.IF YOU GOV begin to cough up consistent numbers on the same line then we may well get an autumn election.

At this election it is likely we will have few concrete policies edged in the public's perception.Alongside side this cheery scenario we have alienated large numbers of our core support who have been marginalised in the rush for the centre.The celebration we have read from the leadership's supporters on these boards as more and more conservative principle has been dropped over the past 18 months now looks very hollow.

[Tony Makara]

Points taken, however I feel that the next election is going to be about change and its pretty obvious that the Liberals are ready to cosy up to Labour, so anyone wanting change, including Labour supporters, has to vote Conservative. Its worth bearing in mind that the vast majority of voters are not as analytical as those who visit this website. The Conservative leadership needs to stay focused on the theme of 'change' and to reiterate the moribund nature of Labour as the 'Stale' party, the party of Faliure, the party that likes Promise but falls short on delivery.

[Bill]

Will the real conservative party now stand up please?

[Schlieffen Plan]

Does anyone (preferably in the Ealing Association or CCHQ) know EXACTLY how we ended up with this disaster on our hands???

[Adam Tugwell]

Tony, whilst I think we would all like to see the Lib Dems take a stand, they are whimsical at best and you just can't take anything for granted with them. They will change direction just as soon as it suits them, when they have what they percieve to be an opportunity to get more seats.