'I've only been Prime Minister for a few days and my honeymoon is coming to an end'

Two Saturdays ago I had to report that Labour had moved ahead by 3% and that was before the Brown honeymoon.  I have better news for you tonight.  Ten days into the Brown honeymoon and an ICM survey for tomorrow's Sunday Mirror puts Labour just 2% ahead.  By 37% to 35% there is no sign that Brown's first acts as Prime Minister have produced anything like the take-off that his close advisers had hoped for or the blanket coverage might have produced.

The LibDems remain subdued on 17%.

There is no room for complacency, however, in the Tory camp.  52% of voters thought Gordon Brown had performed better than expected since replacing Tony Blair.  By 52% to 20% - a massive lead - the new Prime Minister was preferred over the Tory leader on ability to handle terrorism.  The Labour leader also enjoys a 43% to 37% advantage on Cameron's trademark issue - the environment.

ConservativeHome hears consistently good reports from the Ealing Southall by-election.  A victory for Tony Lit would be a certain way of killing the Brown bounce.  It might also force LibDems to replace Menzies Campbell.  Click here to offer help in the Ealing or Sedgefield by-elections.

10.45pm: UK Polling Report has an interesting post that analyses the historical impact on a party's fortunes of a mid-term change in Prime Minister.

Comments

[Umbrella man]

The problem is that we are still 8% short of what we need for a majority.

:-(

[Jennifer Wells]

Brown's response to the flood is very inadequate. His honeymoon may be drowned by that inadequacy.

[michael]

Just got back from ealing, good response on the door steps and our candidates picture in all the shop windows, there really does seem like there is alot of momentum behind him and everyone seems to know him!!

[Richard]

"It might also force LibDems to replace Menzies Campbell."

We don't want that! He's one of our greatest assets!

[Editor]

I agree Richard :-)

[Fed Up with Cameron]

I have better news for you tonight.

And the better news is that Labour are still ahead? Even for a full time Cameron shill that is pathetic.

[Andrew Lilico]

Am I right in thinking that 37% to 35% is within the margin of error of the 2005 General Election result?

[Realist]

All this mid-term: It should be much better. Nothing to smile about here.

[Alan S]

The terrorism number is dreadful for us.

[Tory T]

No it isn't Alan S - the media comes only to the PM on terrorism, of course Brown will ace that under the circs.

This is a wonderful poll. Already the honeymoon is draining right away. I knew the last polls were not to be trusted because of when they were taken. We can expect to see the normal position again after conference (sizeable Tory lead). Sadly, this does mean no more talk of an early election, but few of us bought Brown's spin on that one.

[ToMTom]

Sadly, this does mean no more talk of an early election

You will get lots of Conservative talk of an early election to try to keep the Conference under control

[Sally Roberts]

No surprise! We need to keep our nerve and I am sure Labour will continue to slide.

[C List and Proud]

The key thing which will decide whether the public trust Cameron and the Conservatives to form the next Government will be the reaction to our policies being announced through the summer.

The six big policy review groups and the several other minor task forces, have in many cases identified fairly radical ideas to address social breakdown and failures in many other areas.

The evidence of the last election suggests that the radical policies we proposed in education and health were popular, until they were revealed as ours. As Cameron has fairly successfully decontaminated the Tory brand, we shouldn't be afraid of reprising some of those radical ideas and re-presenting them with the confidence that association with us will no longer mean political death.

I for one still find strong support on the doorstep for strict immigration controls, funding parents rather than schools and allowing people to use any healthcare provider they wish, funded by the state.

If we move our policies into the soggy centre so we cannot be differentiated from Labour or the Golden Shower, then we relegate the election to a personality contest and I'm afraid, dour, safe, grumpy Gordon will win that because people don't like change unless they can see a reason to change.

We should certainly pitch our wares to the electorate on the centre ground issues of health, education, crime etc, but our policies must be liberal and conservative.

[The Huntsman]

Perhaps the ideal result at Ealing Southall might be to win with the LibDems in 2nd. place. Wound him, but not too much, so that he can be kept on a saline drip until 2009 by which time he will be nearly 70. It seems unlikely that he can turn things around. Given that modern general elections require a degree of stamina that one suspects the Old Boy does not have, there is a real chance of lopping off a signficant chunk of LibDem support by then.

Pretty well any combination you enter into Electoral Calculus with the LibDems on 17% or less tends to indicate a Tsunami effect sending them back to single figure territory. We need to do that in order to have a chance of overcoming the present gerrymandered electoral set up.

[Traditional Tory]

This is a wonderful poll.

Tory T (assuming that was not a spoof post) is so utterly beyond parody that I begin to fear for his sanity.

A very short while ago he and his fellow-Roons were hailing poll leads for Cameron in excess of 10%. However the 'Brown Bounce' is playing, it is plainly obvious that the long-running (thanks to the virtual abdication of Blair) Cameron bounce is now stone dead.

As Peter Kellner has declared, even a small Tory lead would not now bring about an election victory. Forget it. We aren't going to win.

What we need to do is to build a strong and credible opposition opposed not simply to the Labour Government but to the evil 'foreign land' ethos these criminals have imposed on our beloved country.

That means dropping the 'Modernisation Agenda' together with Dave, George and the rest of the Blulabourites. It means honouring IDS and embracing his proposals to smash the drug/drink culture that is destroying British youth.

Above all, it means a return to Conservatism. Those who don't like it will know where to go.

[Tory T]

"we aren't going to win"

Interesting - do you mean that "we"?

Of course we're going to win. Don't you understand very basic politics, TT? In a period where only one party is in the news and on tv, the other party will suffer. Once the terror threat and honeymoon coverage goes and David Cameron - our greatest weapon - comes back to the screen, our results will go up, just as they did the week after the grammars row.

It requires DC on screen. That happens in a GE campaign. The fact that Labour, under these circumstances are a mere two points ahead is disastrous for them.

Brown knows this perfectly well and won't be calling an election.

[Traditional Tory]

I don't believe that the Tories will win in anything like the short or medium turn even if Cameron went under a bus tomorrow.

Frankly I think the electorate are too brainwashed self-serving and greedy these days to vote for anything other than Labour's policies of handouts and favours for all.

Of course you are fully entitled to hold the opposite opinion. Sadly it appears to be based on little more than wishful thinking and Dave's long run of luck.

But don't give us that tosh about historical inevitability. Marx has been dead a long time now.

[eugene]

I think it an awful poll for Gordon Brown- new leaders always get a good bounce...look at Major vs. Thatcher-this guy is losing ground after a few days in office. His peanuts offer of 14 million to flood victims (it wil not even pay for the carpets)and his poor running of the economy that has now put interest rates (that are very high considering the World low inflation/low interest economy)up and pushing most of us towards negative equity and debt will do much more harm in the months to come.

Forget about an electioon soon- this guy will have to go all the way and then lose.

All that is needed now is less new Lab speak from Cameron and co. and we will be there.

[Ken Adams]

“No surprise! We need to keep our nerve and I am sure Labour will continue to slide.”

What down to a level where the conservatives can win? I do not think you can begin to release how pathetic that sounds, a once great party which stood for something waiting for the Labour party to drop to its level before it can have a chance of beating it at an election.

[Peter Hatchet]

Traditional Tory: "Above all, it means a return to Conservatism. Those who don't like it will know where to go."

Yes. Under your sort of "Bring back 1875!" Conservatism, they will vote Labour or Libdem.

[Michael Davidson]

It's good news why exactly? Labour are in the lead and the Tories are second - how on earth can you spin that as good news? Bizarre.

[Matt Wright]

I think our general approach to win over sensible centre voters is fine. We also have an overall principle of social responsibility to potentially tie it all together. Where we need to get our act together is:

1) We need much better management of policy group announcements
2) We need the more practical, gritty edge that was promised
3) We need to see key shadow ministers together as a Govt in waiting