It gets worse

A YouGov survey for tomorrow's Daily Telegraph gives Labour a 9% lead.  The Conservatives are down to 32%; 9% behind Labour on 41%.  The LibDems are on 16%.

Gordon Brown has an 18% lead over David Cameron when it comes to who voters think will make best Prime Minister.

More later...

Midnight: Only 27% believe that David Cameron is proving a good leader.  43% thought he was a good leader in February. 34% against 27% are currently satisfied with Gordon Brown's performance as Prime Minister.

Comments

[Cleo]

No suprise at all and it will stay like this until the party shows some unity and desire to win new votes not revert to core vote strategy.

[Tory T]

Not a good poll.

None of it matters unless Brown calls an early election.

The backbiters have a hell of a lot to answer for.

[Tory T]

By the way, see Guido: the Guardian has now apologised for its wholly misleading story that Tory voters were unsatisfied with David Cameron, as reported here and on major news outlets:

"Thursday July 26, 2007
Corrections and clarifications

A chart showing David Cameron's personal rating in a Guardian/ICM poll (front page, yesterday) contained several mistakes. It did not include those voters who said they liked both David Cameron and the Conservative party, and muddled some other figures. The correct figures are: likes Cameron, but not the party, 18%; likes Cameron and the party, 25%; doesn't like Cameron, but does like the party, 26%; don't know, 26%. Five per cent refused to answer. Voters were not asked if they did not like both Cameron and the party. We did not make clear that the chart showed figures for all voters, not just Conservative voters."

[Dismayed]

Carry On Cleo and Tory To**er are at it again.

Just how do the "backbiters" on this site manage to influence public opinion and opinion polls? Are Mr Cameron, his Shadow Cabinet and his advisers blameless?

These polls are far worse than those that were used by the "modernisers" (i.e. wets) to justify stabbing IDS in the back.

Consistency please!

[Martin Bristow]

The present situation is not the fault of the "backbiters".The leadership is responsible from the grevious error over Grammar schools to Ealing debacle DC has misjudged the mood.He must now major on the things that unite us as Conservatives to, reenergise the activists and puts some flesh on the policy bones before it's too late!

[Oliver McCarthy]

Yes, Cleo, I quite agree. This Cameron core-vote strategy is going nowhere fast. The sooner we go back to the Hague/Howard strategy of attracting more racists into the Party the better.

(BTW, this is called sarcasm.)

Actually I genuinely wonder who these anonymous backbiters are. Do they really exist, or are they just David Kelly figures?

[Richard Carey]

Agree with TT and Cleo above - I'm not happy to see Lab above the 40% mark. YouGov has historically been fairly reliable for us over the last couple of years, too. It will be interesting to see the details of the fieldwork, as always.

I have to agree that those responsible for the "summer of discontent" stories have to take some responsiblity for this poll too - these things tend to be a little circular, and we all need to deliver a summer of policy (already underway) and campaigning, not a summer of discontent. I can't imagine workaholic Brown going far in the next couple of months, and we need to collectively out-pace them on that.

If you read the comments on CH lately at face value, you'd draw the overall conclusion that we don't look hungry enough or focussed enough at grassroots level yet...

[Tory T]

I was not thinking primarily of the comment makers on ConHome; most of the lobby know they are not representative of the party and contain huge numbers of ukippers and non-Tory voters.

I was thinking of certain MPs.

They do exist, such as the "senior frontbencher" quoted by the Observer last week, Graham Brady, et al.

However, David Davis was good and robust with them at the 1922. He's great.

[Cleo]

Brown has successfully portrayed himself as the change, has shown leadership on the succession of crises since he took over (terrorism, floods)and unsuprisingly is up in the polls. In contrast the Conservative traditionalists and this site have been in full rebellion for months when they should have shown unity of purpose and be attacking the government.

[HF]

The situation with the media is very difficult. In newspapers the most influential papers frequently attack us. (Telegraph, Times, Mail and Sun). On tv and radio the BBC is left leaning and SKY follows Murdoch's line who seems to have done a deal with Brown.

In such circumstances we need a very professional press/media operation which we all hope Coulson will provide. There must be an end to the pr stunts (Rwanda, Hoodies, glaciers, windmills etc).

We also need other members of the shadow cabinet (apart from Davis) to get off their backsides and work hard. If they could engage their brains before opening their mouths, that would also help.

This is going to be a long, probably 2 election fight. But we have the cash, we have the members, we have the councillors and we will prevail. Eventually.

[Curiosity Killed the Cat]

Hmmm, if image and presentation are so pointless and unimportant, why do the advocates of that arguement work so tirelessly to tarnish DC's?

[Peter North]

This is the funniest thing I've seen all week.

Did Camoron really think he could turn his back on us and expect to get away with it?

Every step back for Camoron is one step foward for conservatism

[Dismayed]

Tory T attacks Graham Brady who was defending the grammar school education that enabled him to be successful and become a Conservative MP.

Mr Brady was the Shadow Europe Minister, with an excellent reputation. He resigned after being briefed against by a "CCHQ spokesman" who made it clear that he was to be sacked in the reshuffle.

Brady acted honourably in contrast to the moral pygmies, e.g. Tory T, who attack him for defending his education.

[Ken]

We certainly need to stick together and back Cameron - now is not the time for fratricide of that nature.

Just a pity that our MPs can only ask for a vote of confidence in the leader - if they could use the tactic to ditch Steve Hilton we'd all be better off.

[Built to Last 18 months]

Electoral Calculus makes that a 134 majority for Brown, more than double the majority Blair secured against Howard.

So Cammy has delivered less members and a bigger majority for Labour.

In fact, he's not just failed but made the job of the next leader even harder still.

[Cleo]

Brown will get an even bigger majority if the party does not get behind the leader

[clive elliot]

Now that we don't argue the Conservative cause, nobody else does and it's going by default.

Hence the slump in the opinion polls.

[Keir Gravil]

I don't think we should give up just yet, we're all leaping to conclusions far too soon. The Brown Bounce was bound to happen. We can recover, and I don't think Brown's honeymoon is actually over yet like a few people think it is.
David Cameron hasn't even had the opportunity to fight a general election yet, and I think we should wait until then to decide on his worth as a party leader. Elections are where everything the party has to offer is cast out for the public to see, and I'm sure when the time comes the policies will be there without the risk of them being stolen.
I know a few people will say that an election will be too late, but it's worth a try in my opinion.

[Will]

This is Cameron's mistakes not a couple of MP's talking to the media. The comments on ConHome are reflecting what is going on in the country.

We need to get more professional. I hope that Coulson gets more input, Hilton less.

and I completely agree with HF above.

[Richard Carey]

He resigned after being briefed against by a "CCHQ spokesman" who made it clear that he was to be sacked in the reshuffle.

I think the fact that he continued to criticise his own party in vitriolic terms in the media while remaining a front-bencher after two dressing-downs from the Chief Whip made it clear that he was going to be sacked in the reshuffle. But maybe I'm seeing signs where none exist...

[Dismayed]

It wasn't the "backbiters" who imposed the hapless and ineffective Tony Lit on Ealing Southall Tories. They did not pose for a picture with Tony Blair. They did not go to Africa whist their neighbours' homes were flooding.

Get real! Cameron took the credit when we were leading in the polls. He must take the blame for the recent fiascos and collapse in the polls. I, and many colleagues in my association, regret voting for him.

[Delusional grammar school supporter]

How long before the Cameroons start saying it was always a '2 election' strategy?

We all know, deep down, that it is over for Cameron. It's a question of when, not if, and no doubt will be the day after the next general election.

The press and the public can smell Cameron's blood and see 'Loser' written large. There's no coming back, and you know it really.

[James Burdett]

Oh for crying out loud! Perspective people please! If we are not careful we are in severe danger of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy on how we are already toast at the next election. We are not!! It would be wise if we actually got on with the job of getting a good result at the election rather than going nuts over a bloody set of opinion polls that add up to not a great deal.

[Richard Carey]

It would be wise if we actually got on with the job of getting a good result at the election rather than going nuts over a bloody set of opinion polls that add up to not a great deal.

Finally, James, a voice of sanity! I wonder how much experience the headless chicken tendency have of selling our current agenda on the ground. Thos of us who did it in the May elections are well aware that there are many ways and means of getting this done!

[Built to Last 18 months]

But James, we were told to hold our breath and button our lips as Cameron's strategy may have looked totally unConservative, but it would deliver victory with sustained poll leads.

All it has delivered is a smaller party (fewer members) and a likely smaller conservative voice (labour having a bigger majority).

We have lost our USP. Cameron has sold the family for a brief early rise in the polls when Blair was near the end of his leadership.

We only put up with it as Team Cameron said it would win. They were wrong.

We even slipped into third place in a seat we came second in under Howard!

[Steve]

Lets get something straight, England and the English people have a DEATH-WISH!.

We deserve all we get!.

And get it we will!.

[Dismayed]

Steve, The BRITISH people want a real alternative to Brown and Labour. They look at Dave and recognise that he is a fake, not a real Conservative. His main adviser, steve Hilton, is a GREEN voter. You would not buy a fake painting so why should the people "buy" a fake Conservative?

[Torygirl]

We are where we are in the polls because we are not longer seen as the Conservative. Older members were told they would not be needed, and my MP told me that we had to get the Liberal Democrats to vote for the party, or we wouldn't get in.

It has been a huge mistake. I told my MP back in 2002 that he was losing the core vote and he said nonsense. Well what is happening now is nonsense, they should have stuck to conservative principles.

[Edison Smith]

When was the poll taken?

Probably earlier in the week when the media was in a tizz about Cameron in Rwanda and the news about the two MPs calling for a confidence vote.

That was the lowest ebb and will remain so.

As Yazz sang: "The only way is up!"

[Torygirl]

Kelvin McKenzie is on the BBC1 atm saying that Cameron is wrong for the party, and wrong for the country.

[Chris Palmer]

Labour on 41% after 10 years of misrule. Yeah right. These polls are always dubious, regardless of whether they say who is in the lead or not.

[Michael Davidson]

This is getting absolutely ridiculous.

The only person responsible for these polls is Cameron. Nine points? This is more than just a Brown bounce - this is a fundamental rejection of Cameron.

How much longer are the 'Roons going to keep banging on how it's not his fault? And blaming Graham Brady who did the noble thing by standing up for grammar schools is shocking.

If only we had more MP's like Brady at the top of our party, we wouldn't be in the state we are in.

Cameron is dangling by a thread - and there isn't much more we can take of this.

[Edison Smith]

"We only put up with it as Team Cameron said it would win. They were wrong."

There hasn't actually been a general election yet. It's an opinion poll for the Daily Telegraph a month after we've had a new Prime Minister!

'Built to last 18 Months' - why not actually give a real name to your dissent.

Or are you Tom Watson MP?

[Will]

The Emperor has no clothes.

Let's see how long it takes for the rest of you to see it.

[Dismayed]

Chris Palmer, are you "Cleo"? The comments list had your post listed as such and then it changed.

[Tapestry]

This poll puts others on 11%. Unlikely.

[Scotty]

"Kelvin McKenzie is on the BBC1 atm saying that Cameron is wrong for the party, and wrong for the country."

Yep I have just seen it too Tory Girl and Michael Portillo was more passionate defending the party than I have seen in a long time.
Anyone who does not realise just what we are up against should watch it at their website.
Portillo came out on top by a mile and Mckenzie, well I am sure some of the regulars on here will recognise more than one poster who comes across in the same way. I must also question the BBC on having that kind of guest which frankly did nothing to add to the debate.
Oh by the way McKenzie also reported that two journalists he spoke to at the Telegraph had given Cameron 60 days to turn it around before they turned on him.
Irony is that they have been attacking him non stop for the last 18 months while we led in the polls so no change there.

[Hail to the Thief]

The problem is that in many cases, the damage has already been done. Team Cameroon's huge pressure on associations has led to many selecting 'Dave' clones. The party will be saddled with these A-Listers long after he departs the scene...

[I Love TomTom]

God Tapestry, change the record

[Dismayed]

Tapestry, "others" includes UKIP, BNP, English Democrats, Respect, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SNP, SDLP, DUP, UUP etc. 11%, given the dissatisfaction with the three main parties, is perfectly reasonable. Get real!

[Michael Davidson]

Tapestry, your comments are really doing your argument no favours at all.

Why can't you just swallow your pride and admit that things are going wrong under the present leadership?

[CDM]

New PM has poll lead?

Big deal. Let's see what the situtation is in 12 months before we start drawing conclusions about our future chances.

Fortunately for us, Brown hasn't got the balls to call an early election, and the Labour party doesn't have the money.

[Tapestry]

Labour got 41% at Southall Ealing, and only 44.77% at Sedgefield, both safe Labour seats. I trust a poll which consulted 100,000 people over and above one which consults only 1000 people.

Votes for others at Sedgefield were up 6% on the GE at 20.73%. With the BNP able to put up candidates in 500 constituencies by the autumn and these likely to pull at least 5% from labour, you could then call labour's vote -5% at 36%.

If the election is called before the Constitution referendum issue is resolved, Cameron would have a natural campaigning issue. Even with a supposed 9% lead, I don't see Gordon home and dry.

[Dismayed]

Scotty, is that the same Michael Portillo who declared, in a recent Sunday Times column, that the Conservatives cannot win another election?

Portillo desperately wants a Peerage. Talking up a hopeless Tory leader will help him get it from Brown.

[Tapestry]

It's really the rise in the BNP vote which I believe is being underestimated by polling organisations, and accordingly the labour lead.

[A]

I think that we're forgetting the brilliant results we just got in the local elections.

Things have gone flat but this poll doesnt worry me at all.

[Dismayed]

Tapestry, are you are a moron or just deluded?

By-elections are not typical, especially in safe seats. Voters have the opportunity to protest by voting for minority parties and independents.

The BNP has no chance of being able to field 500 candidates at the next election. It does not have enough candidates or money.

We now have four successive polls that give Labour a substantial lead. They cannot all be wrong. Wake up!

[Michael Davidson]

Tapestry, for the last time:

In by-elections, even if it is a safe-seat for Labour, they are never going to get a huge lead simply because us and the LibDems will put far more resources into the seat than we would at a general election.

So the 41% and 44% figures you mention, would make Labour pretty ecstatic.

And also, why do you keep banging on about the BNP? They're more likely to take votes off us not Labour.

Or are you just making these comments to wind everyone up?

[Edison Smith]

"This is getting absolutely ridiculous.

The only person responsible for these polls is Cameron. Nine points? This is more than just a Brown bounce - this is a fundamental rejection of Cameron.

How much longer are the 'Roons going to keep banging on how it's not his fault? And blaming Graham Brady who did the noble thing by standing up for grammar schools is shocking.

If only we had more MP's like Brady at the top of our party, we wouldn't be in the state we are in.

Cameron is dangling by a thread - and there isn't much more we can take of this.

---------

Whenever I read your posts Michael Davidson I can't help chuckling! I always want to say, in my terrible Winner impression, "Calm down dear, it's only an opinion poll"!

Come down from your hyperbolic high by putting the kettle on or something. Everything's always brighter after a nice cup of tea and a sit down...

Your final statement rather sums it up. You'd throw away 18 months progress for a month's worth of disappointing polls.

This is the bit where you say, "What progress?" and the argument goes around again. And again. And again.

But here's an original thought. Why not keep your pecker up, get behind DC and maybe even help the party out over the summer?

We can argue until we're blue in the face. But what can't be argued over is that Cameron is a conservative, he has made the party less objectionable to the floating voter, and he wants to win.

If you want change and Brown out, do something positive and tangible about it and rally behind the best chance we've had since god knows how long - Mr Cameron.

Now, one lump or two?

[Chris Palmer]

"34% against 27% are currently satisfied with David Cameron's performance as Prime Minister. - Tim

I don't think he is Prime Minister yet!

"Chris Palmer, are you "Cleo"? The comments list had your post listed as such and then it changed." - Dismayed

No I am not Cleo. Your computer and internet may have just been playing up?

[Torygirl]

Watch This Week -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_4860000/newsid_4860200/4860274.stm?bw=bb&mp=rm&news=1

Kelvin McKenzie doesn't think much of Dave, but Michael Portillo tries to prop him up, having pulled the rug last week.

[Scotty]

Torygirl, I hope as many people as possible see that clip because then they might realise just what it is like reading some of the posts on this site day in and day out. It really brings it home when you see that kind of vicious but extremely vacuous attack in the flesh!

[Editor]

Corrected Chris! Sorry :-)

[Andy]

"Tory T attacks Graham Brady who was defending the grammar school education that enabled him to be successful and become a Conservative MP." - Dismayed at July 26, 2007 at 22:29

I do wish it hadn't...

[Michael Davidson]

Edison, not all the tea in China can make me calm down after seeing this poll! To say I am livid would be putting it mildly.

And I can tell you, I knock on doors year in year out and help the party in any way I can - but I do not do all this to see a leader destroy everything we hold dear.

I'm actually reasonably young and I don't have a problem with modernising - but the way Cameron has gone about most of it is a disgrace. Over 18 months he's been in the job and yet there's been nothing substantial whatsoever and he looks weak and timid already.

All this hug-a-hoodie and banning chocolate oranges at checkouts nonsense has to end. But I know it won't under Cameron and we'll end up being out of power for a generation.

How can we get behind our leader, when he's not even behind us?

[Erica DuPonr]

Cameron is right. The Party is wrong. Half the globe is no longer pink. Wake up and smell the coffee. The problem isn't Cameron but the Party's lack of unity. Portillo speaks sense.

[Mr Angry]

No, sorry all you Cameroonian ostriches but you are just plain wrong.It isn't a lack of unity that is hindering us it is a lack of principles, policies, ideals and ideas and a serious lack of respect for the wants and needs of Conservative voters.

[Bobby]

Labour only polled 48% in Southall at the General Election. Considering the last time a Labour Government was heading out the door the Tories overturned a bigger majority than Southall to win the Birmingham Stetchford By-Election. Labour just polled off its best by election result while in Government, I doubt they are heading out of office soon.

[Dismayed]

" do wish it hadn't..." - Andy

A typical example of Cameroon compassionate Conservatism! (sic)

[GMAN-Wild]

Oh for goodness sake. Im with Cameron all the way till the next election and beyond. Those whom choose not to be, dont moan if we lose. You'll only have yourselves to blame.

Browns new policies have been same old Blair Labour, headline grabbling, reannouncing, and stuff that really does not effect the state of the nation.
I blame the media for allowing Labour to still get away with this tripe. While they (the media) water down a bloody good tory report into social breakdown, to 7p on a Pint.

[Edison Smith]

For some reason that link only shows half the Portillo argument and the link on the website skips the debate entirely...

[Richard Carey]

All this hug-a-hoodie...nonsense has to end.

I quite agree, Michael - the habit of Conservatives repeatedly parroting a line of Labour spin instead of making the case for the substance of what was a thoughtful speech just to make their own argument has to end...!

[Andrew Lilico]

The proper ordering of things:

1) We work out what the point is of the Conservative Party; what we believe in; how we are different from Labour; and why we believe we are better than Labour. This is likely not to consist of a set of points (we believe X; Labour believes Y), but instead a range of views (some of us believe X1; others closely related X2; others slightly more distant X3; and that (X3) is where Conservative views on this topic end).

2) Then, working out from what we believe (the range of views that are Conservative), we try to assess what elements of what we want to do (what we believe needs to be done) are feasible, in the sense that we can combine with like-minded people on these issues so as to form a coalition to deliver a practical programme into action.

3) The we pitch our programme to these people, to try to convince them.

We've spent a bit too much time on (3) recently, without having much idea of (1) or (2) - as if somehow we could try to appeal to "centrist" or "urban" voters without that needing to be via a contiguous extension of Conservatism or via the forming of a coalition of convenience with them. But this need not be fatal. There's still plenty of time before a General Election. Let's make sure we do (1) - so I repeat: What is the Conservative Party for? How do we believe we are different from Labour? Why do we believe we are better than Labour?

[Opinicus]

@ Cleo and Tory T
You must get out more.
I dont know what the Editor claims is the hit rate for this site but even when touting for advertisers he is not going to be able to claim a mass readership. Quality not quantity.
The purpose of this site is to influence opinion makers in the Press and high ups in our own Party who are the only people who read it along with a number of Party member lurkers from this party and a few easily identified trolls from other Parties.
Dissension on this site does not give the general public any intimation of disunity. Someone should include a question in the next Yougov poll whether they have even heard of Conservative Home. Dissension on this site has the effect of the slave at a Roman triumph. Remember that you are only Leader for (your political) life.

PS I am very glad that others above are now taking up my rallying cry

Sack Hilton now

I feel quite like Cato the Elder - Delenda est Hiltono. A prophet is not without honour save within his own Party.

PPS Sack Hilton now. One life for millions of votes - its a rational transaction

[Dismayed]

"No I am not Cleo. Your computer and internet may have just been playing up?

Posted by: Chris Palmer | July 27, 2007 at 00:07 "

"Corrected Chris! Sorry :-)

Posted by: Editor | July 27, 2007 at 00:14"

It looks like the Editor has outed Carry On Cleo. ROFL!

[Torygirl]

Try again tomorrow. I have already complained to the BBC. They transposed the end of the programme to the beginning. A bit like showing the Queen storming out of a sitting instead of heading in;-)

[Graham D'Amiral]

This has the look of a rogue poll about it but we shall see if the next set of polls confirm that suspicion.

Obviously this months polls have been poor but they can change very quickly, it wasn't that long ago when we were nine points ahead after all.

David Cameron is absolutely right to ensure the conservative party captures the centre ground of British politics, it is there from which all elections are won in this country.

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper / delusional conservative]

Can't any of you propose some attractive policies we can all agree on such as introducing an insurance element to funding the NHS, in common with nearly every other country in the world?

This argument about personalities is getting nowhere. Cameron is here to stay and looking for saleable ideas.

[Andy]

"A typical example of Cameroon compassionate Conservatism!" - Dismayed: July 27, 2007 at 00:24

Haha! Much as I like grammar schools, I can't quite forgive them for contributing to Brady's becoming a Conservative MP...

Oh, and much as I like the results Cameron has delivered (excepting the Brown bounce, obviously), I in fact voted for David Davis.

[Michael Davidson]

Graham D'Amiral: "This looks like a rogue poll".

???

A rogue poll? We've had about four of these now, not to mention the by-elections, the dire media coverage, the close relationship with the 'Hitler of Africa', establishing a 'Shadow Minister for Cornwall', and the devastating comments that typical Tory voters have left on the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail websites - how much more evidence do we need about the state of the leadership?

You know, I think sometimes if in the general election Brown got a majority of 200, the 'Roons would still say - 'oh don't worry, it's a one off - we must still rally behind Cameron because he's a winner'.

[Tim Almond]

HF,

"The situation with the media is very difficult. In newspapers the most influential papers frequently attack us. (Telegraph, Times, Mail and Sun). On tv and radio the BBC is left leaning and SKY follows Murdoch's line who seems to have done a deal with Brown."

Just why do you think they're against you? Why are 4 newspapers that supported Thatcher willing to lay the boot into Cameron?

The reason is the attempt to chase a BBC agenda, a stupid idea that somehow by hugging windmills, you could somehow get them off your case (whilst ignoring the fact that the BBC has a duty to appear at least a bit unbiased).

Cameron needs to get back to the centre ground. Law and Order, Immigration, Education, Health, Economy. Blair and Brown were told this by the Clinton guys - forget all your minority interests and stick to those things.

Cameron is NOT on the centre ground.

[Right wingery]

Graham, how can this be a 'rogue' poll when it is merely reflecting the continuing trend of near double digit leads for Labour?

[Scot]

but instead a range of views

I think the problem is that the range of views is really rather large. I want low taxes, little government interference in peoples lives, a free market economy and for Britain to get out of the EU. However, I do not want married people to be given 20 quid a week just for being married, I want separation of church and state and I want drugs legalised (as in taxed and regulated, just like alcohol and tobacco are). Obviously, other people here would disagree with some or all of what I want or don't want (even low taxes, seeing as the roonies want to raise them in the name of being green).

Personally, I don't think there are core values and if you were to try and state "these are the core values of being a conservative" then you'd drive away most of the party, as pretty much everyone would find at least one core value they either disagree with or have a different priority for. Instead, what we have is a loose coalition of people whose views coincide more often than they do with people on the left. Because of the electoral system, we stay together in a single party, whereas under a PR system we'd be in different parties under an overt coalition. Either way, you end up with the same - backbiting factions that don't really get along.

[Mr Angry]

Could Graham D'Amiral (or perhaps Cleo or similar) please explain how if all elections are won from the centre ground Mrs Thatcher managed her 2nd and 3rd GE victories then please?

Oh how soon they forget.....................

[davidk]

please explain how if all elections are won from the centre ground Mrs Thatcher managed her 2nd and 3rd GE victories then please?

in 1983 labour had a far left manifesto making the conservatives closer to centre than labour In 1987 Labour were still showing disunity and had not yet gaind trust of electorate that they had changed. Also they were still calling for a leftist manifesto with higher taxes etc. So again conservatives felt more centrist.

Winning from centre just means close to where most people (not just most conservative activists) feel they are. We need to accept that and we need to be united in achieving it. We need a will to win. Unity and pragmatism used to be the secret weapons on the conservative party and if we are to win we need to relearn that.

It is no surprise to have Brown so ahead as his natural bounce is being built by the panic and disloyalty in the party. Remember the Don't Panic posting the editor wrote before Brown took over?

The media have been full of whisperings against the leadership from alleged MPs writing letters, to former donors handing quotes to Brown on the today programme. Hysterical comments here also fan the media belief in that story.

This site is excellent and the editor is always constructive in any criticism unfortunately the comments are often emotional, hysterical and unreasoning. That helps no one except Brown which is of course why many are actually (I suspect) actually labour supporters in disguise.

[Ben Redsell]

Can we get some sort of perspective here please? Some people (including the 4 Tory MPs who wouldn't like the leader even if it was them) need to remember that a little under 3 months ago David Cameron led the part to gaining 900 councillors at a real election with thousands of votes cast. We are currently in a widely predicted "Brown Bounce" which is mostly because people are so pleased to see the back of Blair.

The public vote against disunity. Just ask Kinnock! DC will get us back on track, but not until after conference (which is when the opinion polls will have settled down into the true reflection) and we will begin to be able to see the benefits of a Cameron leadership.

If we aren't back in the lead by December I'll eat my hat. And since Brown won't go to the country until Spring 2008 or even June 11th 2009, we have plenty of time.

[Dave J]

"please explain how if all elections are won from the centre ground Mrs Thatcher managed her 2nd and 3rd GE victories then please?"

Great politicians, and great parties--those that actually have confidence in their convictions--do not move to the centre ground. They move the centre ground to them.

[jorgen]

it will stay like this until the party shows some unity

Same old tired "Save Dave" mantra. I asked on the other thread: who of those who have to (MPs, ) are not (officially at least) behind Cameron? The public don't read Conservative Home.

No, Cameron is behind because the public either don't like him, his expressed/implied policies and/or his misjudgments, latest by inviting the iffy PM of Rwanda (where he shouldn't have been in the first place) as discussed on this site yesterday.

[Tapestry]

In above post, Labour got 41% at Southall not 48%.

MDavidson - these byelections are not mid-term but brown bounce, new Nulab byelections in the first weeks. They don't confirm the picture being created by the polls.

I mention the BNP purely because they are winning votes and expanding enough to chnage the electoral picture. The picture from Sedgefield is that they pull few Conservatives but a lot of Labour. If they can get 5% nationally (9% at Sedgefield so why not) the polls are wrong, and labour will be around 35% not 40%.

Are you only capable of reacting emotionally to one 'fact' at a time. Let us know when your mind is next open and we'll try to get you to see things differently.

I've tried to see things from the angle you see them from, but I can't get my head up my arse.

[Serf]

As a xenophobic knuckle dragging EU Sceptic, one of the issues that interests me most is the resurection of the constitution.

The right wing press, are making a fuss about this topic, especially the Telegraph. They are being aided in their cause by David Cameron and our party. The one thing that can lead to success, is if Gordon Brown fears for his political future, enough to cave in a grant a referendum. So what do they do??????

They praise a pathetic Gordon Brown to the roof, and ignore anything interesting or positive that we or our leader does, in favour of snide comments and personal attacks. Gordon Brown now feels strong enough to resist the calls for a referendum.

In a nutshell, this shows what we are really up against. The media is showing an amazing level of brown nosing, toward the new Prime Minister. From a Right Wing point of view, he has basically nothing to recommend him, and yet the Daily Mail & Sun treat him with kid gloves. Why??

I didn't want DC to be leader, I was always a Davis fan. I have often disagreed with some of the things that Cameron has said or done.

The long and the short of it however, is that compared to Gordon Brown, Cameron is a dream Prime Minister, and those are the only two option we have. Do we want to see the clunking fist call an early election, and condemn us to another 5 years of despair?

We have top get the media to reflect the reality of Brown, or else we are screwed. Internal fighting will not help.

As an aside, if Steve Hilton were to be sacked, I would throw a party. If David Cameron were to trust his own instincts rather than those of a mercenary, I'm am sure the result would be far better.

[jorgen]

If David Cameron were to trust his own instincts rather than those of a mercenary, I'm am sure the result would be far better.

And you would be wrong. Two examples: Dave should never have gone to Rwanda. Dave should have done his homework on the Rwandan President (not PM as I wrote above).

[Tapestry]

Hear hear about Cameron asserting himself, but he has the media, Ken Clarke, William Hague (tame at the moment but not solid) as well as Hilton all up against him and feeding his ear.

If only the Constituencies would do their part and not send europhiles to Westminster. Rushcliffe.......

The anti-Cameron media fest reminds me of the IDS asssassination. Conservative MPs cracked and sent IDS off the pitch. I don't see the same happening to cameron. So this piece of play will have a different outcome.

If the media loses its ability to support any Conservative leader who is a eurosceptic, then we will need to become a foot-soldier party which communicates with voters via leaflet through the door like smaller parties.

We could focus on media unbalance as a primary theme. If the message came from cameron himself and was not party machine manufactured, it could be an interesting project.

Maybe I should be working for CCHQ after all!!!

[jorgen]

but I can't get my head up my arse.

Maybe that is because it already is up your arse?

[Tapestry]

P.S. those who trust Murdoch as a eurosceptic should note that The Sun is giving Cameron more shit than any other rag since he's firmed up against the EU Constitution.

This media assault on Cameron was ordered in Bussels, and delivered by their agents in Britain...BBC, Murdoch to the fore, exactly as they were with IDS.

Serf, what happened to Right Links? I've got some good files on there which I didn't copy anywhere else. Are you going to reopen?

[Tapestry]

The air smells good this morning.

[jorgen]

The air smells good this morning

I must have been wrong then. :)

[Al Hamilton]

The day after this bungling fool Cameron falls on his sword Cameroons will be as thin on the ground as bacon sandwiches at a barmitzvah.

What a pity that most of the Cam fan club on this blog have been sufficiently cautious to skulk behind pseudonyms.

The fact that they chose to hedge their bets even when Cameron was in the lead tells us all we need to know about the "loyalty" of the anti-British anti-Conservative Cameron gang.

[Patriot]

Let's pause for a moment and think about what the polls might be trying to tell us.

Let's assume that the mantra that we need to "seize the middle ground" is correct, and why not? In the sense that we need to attract more voters and are unlikely ever to appeal to the rabid left I have no issue with that.

Who in CCHQ is claiming to know what the "middle ground" want? Why are they so convinced they are correct?

Who in CCHQ is telling us that the "middle ground" don't want to hear about immigration, Labour's catastrophic illegal invasion of Iraq, lower taxes, and a far tougher line on crime, for example?

If the drive to seize the middle ground is correct, then maybe what the polls are trying to tell CCHQ is that they're catastrophically wrong about what it will take to do that.

Does CCHQ really, truthfully believe that in pubs and clubs across Britain people are sitting over their beers and discussing what needs to be done in Rwanda? Or how Brown doesn't understand the inner angsts of hoodies? Or where they can buy their next windmill?

The "middle ground" that I know are deeply concerned about immigration, more than at any time I can remember - so where's the Conservative offering to win them over?

Where?

If this is true, if CCHQ are wrong about what the "middle ground" are looking for in a government, then I suspect that what is compounding our woes is that Brown DOES understand what the middle ground are crying out for, and while he has no intention of providing it in any meaningful way, he is quite happy to deliver well spun morsels to make sure that the middle ground are on board the Labour party come the next election.

[Tapestry]

Brown's policy declarations such as British jobs for British people, deport illegal immigrants etc demonstrate that he is more than aware of how much his vote is threatened by the BNP. If he had any doubts before, he will be certain after Sedgefield that the BNP will take 5% from him, and could possibly take 10%. They are operating in 500 Constituencies now.

The polls don't take the BNP into account all putting 'others' at around 9-11%. For some reason they have decided to ignore the BNP factor.

The primary purpose of the polls being 'adjusted' recently seem to be to reinforce the assassination attempt on david cameron, which is coming across all media - BBC, Murdoch, even the Mail and seems to be the coordinated attempt to get Cameron, matching the one launched against IDS in 2003.

The price of standing up against the EU is a coordinated assault from all media.

It is extraordinary how well Cameron's support is holding up at 32% given what's coming at him right now. He'll make it.

If you want to find out my name, Al, visit my blog. As Shakespeare said, 'what's in a name?' and I don't mean Stephan.

[fr]

All this after 2 weeks bad opinion polls. Thank God you lot were not around in 1940.

[fr]

Just realised this is a bad example. Aaargh.Say after May, 1940. Oh dear.

[HF]

On the issue of the media, what is required is a professional approach. The other day Tim quoted on here the views he had heard from the media that they are rarely called up by the Conservatives press people. The reverse was true for Labour.

These failings will undermine any party no matter who its Leader is, or how left/right it is.

We have the cash, so there is NO excuse, they need to do a better job.

[Tapestry]

The Daily Mail wasn't on Hitler's side was it? Churchill had blanket support from all home sources. Not the same situation.

But yes. I think this lot are a bit wet. The white flag has come up before any real shots are fired. We need the small boats again - or should I say the efforts of the foot soldiers to deliver our message.

If the media are against David Cameron, we should bypass the media and leaflet door to door on our key issues.

People don't trust the main media which is why the BNP does so well by working thnrough leaflet. we should do the same.

[dog biter]

One of the Cameroons' problems is arrogance. Two months ago certain whips were crowing that now we were 40% in the polls the next general election was in the bag. This was presumably why Dave sought fit to arrange a visit to Rwanda even though it was going to be a gamble as to whether the British public would think he was a) caring, compassionate and modern or b) a total dork for visiting a man known as the "African Hitler". Likewise, the fuss over grammar schools. Dave thought we would cheer him for being terribly modern and confirming no further reintroduction of grammars. No dice there. And Tony LIt? Well, Dave gambled that Tony would be a really cool diversity candidate. Wrong again. BIG TIME. So let's dispense with the arrogance, realise we are infallible and prone to gaffes and start producing some sensible, solid Tory policies. Like on the subject of tax, immigration etc. You don't have to sound like a baddy, Dave. You're awfully good at sounding nice about everything you say. Stay away from all that Blairite right-on, let's be cool guff of Hilton et al. Stick to common sense and pragmatism. Could be a winner. And no more silly taxes like the drug treatment or cheap flight levies. The public are not going to fall for that.

[Authenticity]

"Could it be that the real heir to the downsides of Tony Blair's legacy - the triumph of spin over substance; the brittle cult of celebrity; politics as theatre; the bigger the stage the better, even if, as in Iraq, it all ends in tears; political parties as personal playthings - is not Gordon Brown at all, but David Cameron? And if that is so, might not the current slump in the Tory leader's fortunes be signalling that public opinion has grown weary of a political style which, it judges, no long measures up to the big challenges we all face?"

and

"We know he (Brown) favours serious, sober-minded debate over Question Time theatrics. But this is also a politician driven by a clear vision of what kind of society he wants to help shape, laced with an impatience about not getting there quickly enough. Perhaps, in the scale of his ambition to change Britain, Brown is more in the political lineage of a Margaret Thatcher than a Tony Blair".

- The above analyss is from an article (link below) on the Brown bounce in today's Herald by Alf Young. While not agreeing with every detail is there not some truth in this analysis?

http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/featuresopinon/display.var.1576834.0.0.php

[Bloody Minded]

So Cambo the sacred cow of the Cameroons is in terminal decline. Time to act before he infects the whole party!

Sadly I fear the inevitable slaughter is likely to be painful and bloody.

In a more civilised age a gentleman placed in such a situation would have blown his brains out.

[Optimistictory]

davidk asks "please explain how if all elections are won from the centre ground Mrs Thatcher managed her 2nd and 3rd GE victories then please?"

The answer is that Mrs. T moved the centre ground rightwards, rejecting much of the post-War consensus (aka 'Butskellism') and creating a new one, which still largely exists. The public largely supported (or tolerated) her because by 1977 everyone could see that it was no longer delivering anything but national failure. Our Modernising colleagues seem not to have realised that in their enthusiasm to 'change'.

Brown is now attacking Cameron from the right, not the left. He's rejecting Blairism and seeming more conservative on issues like casinos, cannabis and licensing. None of this is DC's fault, but Brown wants the 'heir of Blair' charge to stick to him and, as he largely posted it on himself, we shouldn't be surprised if some of it does stick.

What the people will vote for at the end of the day isn't niceness but competence. DC needs to regain the image of a competent leader which he has lost over the last couple of months over green taxes and grammar schools etc. Eschew stunts, stick to factual questioning, promote Conservatism and surround himself with people who also exude competence and look like a government in waiting and all may yet be well.

[TomTom]

I thought this poll also said only 18% thought the Conservatives would win the next election.....that tends to drag down support a little

[CCTV]

If the media are against David Cameron, we should bypass the media and leaflet door to door on our key issues.

That will be expensive hiring delivery firms - and usually political leaflets are turgid - so it will show just how shrivelled the local activist base is nationally

[CCTV]

whuich might lead them to think about rebuilding it - after so much delay