This morning's Guardian reveals that Gordon Brown has been holding secret talks with Ming Campbell about possible LibDem participation in his first Cabinet. Reading the article it appears that a deal may be impossible but it's further confirmation of what we all know: Ming's heart is on the left and there is every chance that he'll get into bed with Brown after the next election and little chance that he'll form any kind of coalition with David Cameron.
There is a clear message that we need to communicate to every voter in Romsey, Solihull and Torbay who is wavering between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats: There is only one way to end the years of Labour incompetence and that is to vote for David Cameron's new Conservative Party. The Conservatives won't keep Brown in power. The Liberal Democrats want to.
The Guardian presents the Brown-Campbell talks as a desire for a new era of bipartisanship. In reality it is a scheme to keep the left in power in Britain for at least another parliament. Conservatives need to spell out what that means in terms of a soft approach to crime, still higher taxes and a failure to address the root causes of social injustice.
10.30am postscript: It is interesting that The Guardian's front page splash is only attributed to a 'Staff Reporter'. Normally it's only very small stories that are credited in this way. It is likely that The Guardian's source needed protecting and hiding the name of the journalist might aid this and frustrate any leak investigation. Gordon Brown is seen as an unforgiving man and the responsible reporter may also have wanted to stay out of his bad books.
It appears that there'll be an early test of Lib-Lab co-operation because of the death of Labour's Ealing Southall MP Piara Khabra. The LibDems are in second place in the seat and if the yellow peril are up to their usual tricks their byelection machine will already be in full swing before Mr Khabra's funeral.
You'll only be a Lib Dem until you've been burgled... Perhaps somebody needs to remind a few of the idealists out there that the cost of yellow politics only ever becomes evident when the bill arrives.
So, what will the cost be now if Brown snuggles up in an orange romance?
Posted by: Adam Tugwell | June 20, 2007 at 10:06
The fact is that the way the electoral system works, "Vote LibDem, get Labour" is true anyway. Labour constituencies are smaller and shrinking generally, and ours are bigger and growing (and boundaries are not set on estimates of growth). So each Conservative voter in a Conservative constituency is less represented in the country than each Labour voter in Labour seats.
When Labour wins in a seat by a smaller margin than the LibDem vote, they are making the situation even worse.
Posted by: Rachel Joyce | June 20, 2007 at 10:09
Brown does not like contests, in fact he goes out of his way to avoid them with back room deals. Electoral reform anyone?
Posted by: Scotty | June 20, 2007 at 10:12
Just ANOTHER example of how scurrilous the LibbyDems are. Basically, they are 'in it for themselves'. After the first Scottish Parliament elections Scotlands 4th party saw fit to enter a coalition with Labour. That held until the LibbyDems parliamentary share of seats was directly affected by being in 'Government' with Labour! But as to the 'back-door deals' with labour- we've been here before. The non-pact with Labour during the 92 election. The 'informal' agreement with Labour during 94-97 not to contest certain by-elections. Lest we forget, the 'secret' coalition/party merger talks between Ashdown and Blair before (and after) the 1997 election. Should we be surprised by the Granuaid's front page?
Posted by: simon | June 20, 2007 at 10:12
Are our leaders going to go to town on this and hammer this message and slogan in every speech?
It should be the main headline for the Ealing Southall by election.
Posted by: HF | June 20, 2007 at 10:15
The Party should be reproducing the Guardian article like mad and stuffing it through every door in every LibDem constituency and every constituency where the LibDems seriously challenge the Tories or are seriously challenged by the Tories with the "Vote Yellow, Get Red" message.
Does anyone else have the sense of the LibDems feeling that a wipe-out is on the cards? If they were confident of maintaining or improving their position, would they be doing this? After all Electoral Calculus suggests that anything around 14-15% will mean they can get the Parliamentary Party into a telephone box once again (if they can find one!).
Many Tory defectors of 97,01 and 05 who voted LibDem will now have a stark choice of voting conservative once again and will no longer have the luxury of dodging the blame.
Posted by: The Huntsman | June 20, 2007 at 10:25
"David Cameron's new Conservative party"? What happened to the old one then? Are we to be purged in a year zero exercise, or is "Dave" just going to buy a new one from his pal Hilton?
Posted by: Saloon bar bore | June 20, 2007 at 10:28
This is very good news for David Cameron. It won't help LibDem MPs in fights with the Conservatives. A great opprtunity for us if we deliver the right message on the doorsteps.
Posted by: bluepatriot | June 20, 2007 at 10:31
I agree with HF - we need to get this message out at Ealing Southall.
The depressing thing however is that if they have been gearing up for a by-election for weeks (see Iain Dale's bit on this), it shows how well organised they still are on the ground. It does sound a bit likes vultures hovering over the dying MP, but they will be able to hit the ground running.
Posted by: Rachel Joyce | June 20, 2007 at 10:35
"Vote Lib Dem, get Labour", eh? How soon we all forget. How many weeks ago was it when Dave and Maude were telling us, "vote Lib Dem, get our coalition partners"?
Posted by: ACT | June 20, 2007 at 10:38
Presumably this would only happen after the next election if Labour don't get a majority - why would Brown want people from outside his party in his Cabinet when he doesn't need to?
I'd be surprised if he wanted people from outside his inner circle in his cabinet!
Posted by: Ed | June 20, 2007 at 10:46
Ed, let's face it, he's been waiting for his inheritance for so long now that he'll do whatever necessary to preserve it -'leadership at all costs' - he certainly won't leave it up to the electorate to make a decision on what job he has if he can help it. Funny thing is, I always thought that Labour had a problem with hereditary things.. funny how matters change when it suits isn't it?
Posted by: Adam Tugwell | June 20, 2007 at 11:05
Vote Dave, get Labour
Posted by: richard | June 20, 2007 at 11:05
There is total confusion out there in the media at the moment. The Blair control system is gone. The Brown one hasn't got a clue how to play the game. Every time he tries a ploy, it's hopeless.. embarrassing. He lives in a tiny clique hiding away from the real world. No wonder he has no idea how people think and or what will happen as the consequence of his actions.
Brown without Blair is exactly what we thought he'd be - salt without pepper, butter without bread - in fact a tub of lard, hardly any more capable of controlling his passions (political) than Hattersley.
How the h..' did this particular piece of fatuous substance become Prime Minister of our great country?
Posted by: tapestry | June 20, 2007 at 11:06
Interesting angle you have there Tapestry!
Posted by: Adam Tugwell | June 20, 2007 at 11:10
What a really amusing/perceptive/true comment, richard.Not.
Posted by: malcolm | June 20, 2007 at 11:11
it's all being played in the media now to take attention away from the treachery being played out in Brussels. (hatfield girl on iaindale)
Posted by: tapestry | June 20, 2007 at 11:38
Ah, but as with Ashdown and Blair once the Great Sulking Nit is esconced after an election then the DimLebs will be ignored once again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice - I must be a DimLeb.
Posted by: sniper | June 20, 2007 at 11:46
I hope the Conservative party is already preparing for the Ealing Southall by-election.
Posted by: Chris Palmer | June 20, 2007 at 12:04
Libs sucking up to Labour and the Tories drifting to the left. And who said that Davey was like Ted Heath?
Posted by: Andrew Ian Dodge | June 20, 2007 at 12:13
Hard to get excited about Ealing Southall's by-election; they're probably counting the postal votes already...
Posted by: Drew SW London | June 20, 2007 at 12:41
This affects my constituency severely, as I'm standing against Vince Cable, who's in pole position to get a Cabinet seat, with his old chum Brown.
Please see my article on: wwww.deborah4twickenham.com to see how I'm doing my bit to highlight this.
Posted by: Deborah Thomas | June 20, 2007 at 12:50
Vote Yellow get Brown is exactly what I'll be telling the folks of Solihull!
Posted by: Anne-Marie | June 20, 2007 at 12:55
Surely this is playing right into our hands? Vote yellow, get red has been our message for some time but it is difficult to get a lot of voters to understand it. This makes it more than clear which way the Lib Dems lean. I can't understand why Ming would want this?
Posted by: RobD | June 20, 2007 at 13:05
There doesn't have to be a Lib Dem in the cabinet for a Lib-Lab coalition to exist. In a hung parliament it would be in the Lib Dem's better interests to produce their demands as the price for cooperation - on a "case by case basis" - on the floor of the House. This maintains enough distance between them and a Labour government for them not to be too contaminated by a "formal" pact and position(s) in government.
Except that we'll make sure they are still tarred, I hope.
Posted by: Neil Reddin | June 20, 2007 at 13:23
[Quote="Chris Palmer"]"I hope the Conservative party is already preparing for the Ealing Southall by-election.[/quote]
I hope so to0 Chris. I was saddened to hear the news this morning about the sad death of Piara Khabra. It is always sad when someone dies and is never nice to hear. However in terms of the by-election though I am very excited about the prospect and considering what has happened I feel that we (The Conservatives) can win the seat of Labour.
Also the one thing that is in the Conservatives favour is that it already runs the local council and that is one thing that could be an advantge, although the actual wards in Ealing Southwall are mainly Labour run or rather have Labour councilliors.
If there is one thing that I learnt from my days as a Liberal Democrat is that if you work hard enough you can win whether you are. Bromley and Chislehurst last year is a prime example.
They were a distant third at the general election but at the by-election last year they came withing 663 votes of taking the 17th safest seat.
If the Conservatives can get the member-power to campaign heavily in Ealing and if the Labour-LD pact is true then it could play well and truley into the Conservaitves parties hands.
Posted by: Paul Seery | June 20, 2007 at 13:27
Neil, It's the 'hung' scenario which is most worrying. Does Brown's move indicate that he sees this as a distinct possibility? Does it mean that an early Election is on the cards?
A pact of any kind involving the Lib Dems will lead to yet more politically correct idealism which has no basis in the real world, which will nonetheless go another step closer to wrecking it for everyone else.
The upside is of course that there is some wonderful capital to be made out of this for us. Let's hope it is enough to change the minds of a few of those floating voters...
Posted by: Adam Tugwell | June 20, 2007 at 13:30
Deborah, impressed you are off the mark so quick. Do include quotes and a link to the original article as it will add credibility to your statement.
Posted by: HF | June 20, 2007 at 13:58
sniper, seems like Paddy Ashdown is the source of the story. on politicalbetting.com.
trying to get himself a job, and help drive the nails into Britain's coffin.
Posted by: Tapestry | June 20, 2007 at 14:23
"I hope the Conservative party is already preparing for the Ealing Southall by-election."
One way to prepare is to choose a candidate on merit.
The local labour party in Southall have been tearing themselves apart over plans for a all woman shortlist. Which Piara Khabra supported.
Which
Posted by: 601 | June 20, 2007 at 15:11
Re Paul Seery 13.27
"If there is one thing that I learnt from my days as a Liberal Democrat is that if you work hard enough you can win whether you are. Bromley and Chislehurst last year is a prime example"
I totally agree, Bromley Conservatives worked tirelessly in tragic circumstances and won
Posted by: Treacle | June 20, 2007 at 15:15
This is a good line to push. The Lib Dems often receive the protest vote, so if voting for the Lib Dems are seen as propping up Labour, the anti-Labourites will go elsewhere - if we work hard enough, hopefully in our direction.
Posted by: Ash Faulkner | June 20, 2007 at 15:26
"If there is one thing that I learnt from my days as a Liberal Democrat is that if you work hard enough you can win whether you are. Bromley and Chislehurst last year is a prime example"
I totally agree, Bromley Conservatives worked tirelessly in tragic circumstances and won - Treacle
I agree. The disgraceful aspect about the Liberal Democrats campaign for that by-election was that it just focused for the majority on Bob Neil and not on Bromley. At the time I said to them that it was not the right way to go about it but they did not listen. But hey I am pleased that the Conservatives managed to rise above it and managed to win it abeit by a samll majority. That will be put right though come the next general election.
Posted by: Paul Seery | June 20, 2007 at 15:35
Vote Conservative? Get lost!
Posted by: Why don't you use your own name instead of hiding behind an anonymous one? | June 20, 2007 at 16:10
Get lost, you're a Conservative.
Posted by: Rebecca | June 20, 2007 at 16:12
You'll only be a Lib Dem until you've been burgled - Adam Tugwell comment above.
But my Tory MP (Robathan) ıs defendıng hand gun owners - If you are shot then I suppose you stop beıng a Lıb Dem too!
Posted by: Icarus | June 20, 2007 at 16:18
You are on a hiding to nothing with this, because given a 'forced choice'the majority of LibDem voters want a Labour government
Posted by: Comstock | June 20, 2007 at 16:27
What effort has the Conservative Party made to earn the support of the Liberal Democrat Party?
Posted by: David Bullingdon | June 20, 2007 at 16:31
Not looking forward to Ealing Southall at all, with the Liberals in second place we are likely to get severly squeezed and another Brent East may be on the cards. This is also a seat we've not won for over fourty and a great deal of politics is around ethnic politics.
Posted by: John Bull | June 20, 2007 at 16:49
Not looking forward to Ealing Southall at all, with the Liberals in second place we are likely to get severly squeezed and another Brent East may be on the cards. This is also a seat we've not won for over fourty and a great deal of politics is around ethnic politics.
Posted by: John Bull | June 20, 2007 at 16:50
Treacle said "I totally agree, Bromley Conservatives worked tirelessly in tragic circumstances and won".
I was stunned to read this as we had several threads on here after the election and it is quite clear that some "worked tirelessly" some cllrs did not turn up.
The strategy was tactically inept and the overall management of the campaign was clearly flawed.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2006/06/francis_maude_m.html
Posted by: HF | June 20, 2007 at 17:17
We should be much more optimistic about Ealing Southall and expect at the very least overtake the Lib Dems into 2nd place. The By election will be fought on the old boundaries and the results in 05 were.
Piara Khabra, Labour 22,937
Nigel Bakhai, Liberal Democrat 11,497
Mark Nicholson, Conservative 10,147
Sarah Edwards, Green Party 2,175
Malkiat Bilku, Workers' Revolutionary Party 289
Labour majority: 11,440
Even a victory is not inconcievable given that the late Mr Khabra had a large personal vote.
Just imagine what that would do to all the naysayers and how much more confidence the whole party would get?
Francis should be bold and pull out all the stops on this one.
Posted by: HF | June 20, 2007 at 17:25
Conservatives should stand aside in Ealing Southall and let the Liberal Democrats take the seat off Labour. It's one of those places where you risk voting Conservative and getting Labour. Vote tactically, vote Liberal Democrat.
Posted by: Duncan Doughnut | June 20, 2007 at 19:03
Well, considering the Tories sought to get a Labour man to stand for them on a joint Tory/LibDem ticket for the London Mayoral election, then sought to change the electoral law when their stunt failed, perhaps changing the law, banning any party from holding office for more than 3 terms is the way forward for you here?
'If you can't win fairly, cheat' does seem the current Tory strategy.
Posted by: Chelloveck | June 20, 2007 at 19:32
"If you can't win fairly, cheat' does seem the current Tory strategy."
Assertion rejected, of course, but even if it was true, then we would have learnt it from years of fighting Lib Dems.
Posted by: Neil Reddin | June 20, 2007 at 20:55
Even a victory is not inconcievable given that the late Mr Khabra had a large personal vote.
If the Conservative Party can even come 2nd it will be miraculous, looks like a prime Liberal Democrat by election target - probably be quite close between Labour and Liberal Democrat, not that it makes a lot of difference if the Liberal Democrats won it; Liberal, Alliance and Liberal Democrat by election successes frequently fail to translate into General Election success. Imagine though that it would be an early boost for Gordon Brown if Labour held it with a strong vote.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | June 20, 2007 at 23:42
If we put our candidate right now then we can win. Lib Dem in last elections increased their share of vote by 14.4%.
In the last few years huge number of Somalis, Iraqis and Afghanis have moved into the area, to beat Labour in its strong wards we need a Pakistani/Muslim Punjabi speaking candidate, who will bring in new votes crucial to win the seat.
Atiq
Posted by: Atiq Malik | June 21, 2007 at 05:32