Open Europe's photo of European leaders with their ears shut to their peoples' opinions has just been on the BBC1's Six'o'clock News. To coincide with the EU summit, Open Europe have commissioned an ICM poll of 1,000 people that shows overwhelming support for a referendum:
- 86% of all voters want their say on a new transfer of powers to the EU;
- 83% of Labour voters want a referendum, as do 88% of Lib-Dem and Tory voters;
- 43% of Labour voters say they will be “definitely less likely” to vote for Brown if he denies the British people a referendum;
- 65% of all voters told ICM that they would vote against a new treaty that transfers additional powers to the EU;
- Given a three way choice, only 15% of voters would support more powers for the EU. 49% supported less powers for the EU.
A poll by by Populus for Global Vision puts support for a referendum at 83%. Ruth Lea of Global Vision will be addressing the issue of the EU's 'not-the-constitution' in an article for tomorrow's YourPlatform.
I suspect it will be all-but-impossible to agree to any treaty that the British public would not insist upon having a referendum upon. And the only sort that would get a "Yes" is one that could be convincingly spun as reducing the EU's powers.
Matters have gone too far in the UK. We are now a blockage to the European Project. We need to say: "We aren't going to be in the Single European State (SES). We aren't going to be joining the euro. We wish you good luck, and will do everything we can to help, but we've gone as far as we can go." Then, over time, with every new Treaty, more and more powers will pass back to us in the areas about which we are concerned. For if we aren't, ultimately, going to be in the SES, then it won't be in the interests of SES Members to be intertwined with us in home affairs, the CAP, and so on.
We need to hold our nerve, and ignore the insistent voices of those calling on us to leave - there's no need whatever for that - but make our position plain and categorical. At the moment we are just messing our friends about and holding the whole thing up.
Posted by: Andrew Lilico | June 21, 2007 at 18:48
Why doesn't Cameron advocate a two-speed Europe? That would show that we're not foaming-at-the-mouth Europhobes, but that we are fundamentally opposed to any federal state.
Posted by: CDM | June 21, 2007 at 18:57
Cameron's position on this is very good. He has done what he needed to by calling for the referendum.
He needs do no more for now letting this drama play out.
It is likely this is a win/ win situation. Labour damaged and our relationship with Europe diminishing.
Posted by: John | June 21, 2007 at 19:09
Wish I could be optimistic on this. What I see is more power going to the EU elite day by day - they have their tentacles into every aspect of our lives with or without an 'amending treaty'.
Posted by: Pete | June 21, 2007 at 19:17
Everytime the Tories are accused of Europhobia, xenophobia, Little Englanderism, being backward etc, this poll should be thrown back in the faces of the accusers. The British public are deeply Eurosceptic whether the pro-Europeans like it or not.
Posted by: Richard | June 21, 2007 at 19:22
Richard:
I don't think there are many accusers left to throw this poll back at!
Posted by: John | June 21, 2007 at 19:35
John - just wait for the BBC to start accusing!
Posted by: John Coles | June 21, 2007 at 19:54
Whatever the EU Nabobery may say to the contrary, this treaty, just as much as the Constitution, is about creation of the EU Surperstate.
If we concede the legal personality issue, it’s all over chaps.
That plus all the existing institutions such as the Parliament, the Council of Ministers, The Commission, would create in the EU all the indicia of a sovereign state contemplated by The Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, signed at Montevideo, Uruguay on 26th. December 1933. Although only signed by nineteen Latin-American nation states, Article 1 of the Convention sets out the four criteria for statehood that have frequently been recognized as an accurate statement of customary international law:
“The state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications:
(a) a permanent population;
(b) a defined territory;
(c) government; and
(d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states.”
Blair’s red lines matter not a fig. This is what it is all about. If you throw in primacy of EU law, the EU Defence Force, The Foreign Minister (whatever he or she gets called) and the permanent presidency, it becomes like the elephant in the front room: if it looks like a superstate, if it sounds like a superstate and if it smells like a superstate, then it is a superstate.
I can hear the sound of jackboots crunching on the drive already.
Posted by: The Huntsman | June 21, 2007 at 19:57
There is only one way to prevent more and more powers being transfered to Europe. Get a Cameron Government elected at the next election.
Posted by: Jack Stone | June 21, 2007 at 20:47
David Cameron must call for a referendum and promise to do so if the Party wins the next election. All opposition who use the argument of Europhobia must be argued down. Threat to democracy, as it is, should be countered on the grounds of free market and a right to democracy. First test for Mr Brown's Britishness. New Labour could be remembered as those who dissected the United Kingdom and its people.
Posted by: DistributionPolitics Editor | June 21, 2007 at 21:08
Look at that so@@ing bunch of sickening cowards.
Guaranteed to lose any political battle, they want to overrule the opinions of hundreds of millions of europeans to appoint themselves as demigods. Bring back the guillotine. Off with their heads, the lot of them. Such arrogance has not been seen since Marie Antoinette told the peasants to eat cake.
Well, Sonny Sarky and Madame Murky, we ain't eating your cake. It's you who's going to be eating humble pie - and quickly.
Posted by: Tapestry | June 21, 2007 at 21:28
Can anyone here imagine any sort of deal that Blair could come back with for which the demand for a referendum wouldn't be absolutely overwhelming? My guess is that even if the treaty stated just that the standard spelling of "euro" would now involve a capital letter, "Euro", instead of a small letter, then there would still be overwhelming demand for a referendum, and the outcome would be too close to call...
Posted by: Andrew Lilico | June 21, 2007 at 21:51
Thinking about this, Brown has an interesting strategy available here. We know that Brown has been eurosceptic, particularly over the Euro (The Sun will remind us of the five tests). He can give a referendum and find himself protected since we know he wasnt the one desperate to be in the heart of Europe along with Blair.
On the other hand, he'll probably give in and sign the damned thing...in which case I suggest we make the new Treaty mandatory reading for every single Tory activist fighting the next General Election! I'd hate to be the Minister for Europe when Brown takes over!
Posted by: James Maskell | June 21, 2007 at 21:52
We need to stick at this and demand a referendum as we have reached the limit with the EU and the vast majority of the public agree.
Matt
Posted by: Matt Wright | June 21, 2007 at 21:55
Looking at the photo, bearing in mind the Kaczinskis are fighting the treaty along with us on the basis of the QMV, isnt it a little unfair to put them in the same gang as the Franco-German axis? The Poles have been the ones threatening the veto...
Anglo-Pole relations at home have never been better...
Posted by: James Maskell | June 21, 2007 at 21:58
Actually Jack Stone the only way to prevent more and more powers being ceded to Europe is to get a Conservative Government elected, sadly a Cameron one won't be that and will give away our sovereignty just as easily and willingly as the Labour Govt is trying to. After all Cameron claims to be the "Heir of Blair" and Blair is the traitor trying to swap our nation's independence for a nice little earner as President of a European state.
Posted by: Hmmmmmmm | June 21, 2007 at 23:34
Cameron has written about the constitution in Her Majesty's Telegraph today, saying it is a distraction from making the EU more competitive and less damaging the environment and developing countries.
Posted by: Deputy Editor | June 22, 2007 at 05:07
This is fantastic news. I really believe that with more pressure we can eventually move to get out of Europe altogether.
I am going to write to David Cameron to urge him to support a policy of leaving the EU.
If every Conservative in the while of the country does the same it will be like our own referendum. David Cameron will see that it is the best way to clinch victory at the next election and he'll do it.
Britain can be free again! Free of Europe.
Posted by: Nikki C | June 22, 2007 at 06:37
Funny how it's the Kaczinskis who lead in Poland, and Daniel Kawczinski who's Chairman of the cross-party National Committee For A Referendum. His father fought in the Battle of Britain in Spitfires in a Polish squadron. He's now MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham (Conservative).
Posted by: Tapestry | June 22, 2007 at 07:15
Cameron's article in the Telegraph is in every way as limp as one would expect.
What the people now demand is strong leadership; a Conservative Party committed to destroying Britain's European bondage. As we cannot hope to change the fanaticism of continental politicians that means a Conservative Party committed to EU withdrawal.
That is the challenge for Gordon Brown. To offer a new sense of vision and hope in Europe, to raise Europe's sights and generate a real change for the better. If he does that, he will have our support.
Sounds like we're moving from 'Heir to Blair' to 'Son of Gordy'
What's the point of asking Brown to pump out the usual bulls**t about 'vision and hope'? We all know he has the ability to do that in spades.
Posted by: Traditional Tory | June 22, 2007 at 08:22
Not surpising really Tapestry,
when the Unified Europe project in an earlier incarnation was responsible for the attempted elimination of your country I suspect it tends to make one a little sceptical about its updated version.
Posted by: Richard Tyndall | June 22, 2007 at 08:24
Why doesn't Cameron advocate a two-speed Europe?
Because that is not in Britain's interest either.....that might give France hegemony in Defence, Foreign Policy and other areas detrimental to British interests
We have had over a thousand years of trying to protect our interests against countries like France with varying degrees of success - giving them carte blanche to ride roughshod over our interests while we are paying the bills would be naive.
Posted by: TomTom | June 22, 2007 at 09:01
Anyone seen this yet?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6229300.stm
Posted by: James Maskell | June 22, 2007 at 09:14
Very good photo montage.....and so close to the actualitie.....
Posted by: George Hinton | June 22, 2007 at 11:05
According to the BBC, Blair was "reassured" by Sarkozy regarding the move to interfere with the free market.
Why do I get the feeling that we are about to get rather publicly screwed by the EU and that Blair wont care one jot about it?
Posted by: James Maskell | June 22, 2007 at 13:57
How about a referendum on whether the UK should remain in the EU or not at the same time, or are the 3 main parties scared that people might vote to withdraw!
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | June 22, 2007 at 13:58
Every time a British Prime Minister goes to a European summit talking tough about "red lines" that will not be crossed we know that a capitulation is imminent. Don't expect Gordon Brown to behave any differently to his predecessors; the European "project" will continue to roll onwards towards regardless of the wishes of its citizens.
Poland is being criticised for its comments about Germany's record in the last World War, but Angela Merkel appears to have adopted the same anti-democratic stance of some of her predecessors. Ignoring the fact that France and the Netherlands have voted "No" to a European Constitution, she proposes lawyers' weasel words -“to use different terminology without changing the substance” - to go against the will of the people. Small wonder that politicians are held in such contempt by the public.
Posted by: Mack | June 22, 2007 at 14:10
Benedict Brogans comments on this amendment.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/06/will-brown-go-a.html
If thats true, then expect more concessions from the Brits. I put money down on the CFR appearing in the text.
Posted by: James Maskell | June 22, 2007 at 14:23
Refreshing that the Poles HAVE mentioned the war. BUT, they seem to have forgotten that the first series of massacres occurred with the Russians at Katyn and elsewhere. Stalin and his NKVD were far better organised than the Gestapo and SD under Himmler, Heydrich and Muller et al.
One can understand the angst of the Poles, they have lifted the yoke of communism and domination under the soviet collar only to find that membership of the EU brings its own problems. You may get money and the facsimile of democracy, but at a price, being bossed around by unelected and unaccountable apparatchiks and being forced by oleaginous politicoes to give up your independance.
It really is time that the idea of confederation was left to those that want it and the rest revert back to the original aim of a free trade market. That ideal though, is being stifled by Sarko and the French. So despite all the crap printed in the press and all the punditry aired, the French are staying true to their dirigiste form.
Posted by: George Hinton | June 22, 2007 at 14:47
James Maskell,
If the ammendment replacing free trade with "full employment" gets in there then not only is this treaty doomed in Britain, but so would Britain's EU membership. The only positive thing to ever come out of the EU is free trade and for many it's the sole reason why we haven't left.
Posted by: Chris | June 22, 2007 at 15:03
Thank God we're at least discussing something which resonates with voters and not wind turbines, 'work life balances' or obscure Koreans.
Any chance we might also get back onto 'engaging with the issues', or whatever it is we're supposed to do these days, of crime and immigration?
Posted by: Oliver Arthurs | June 22, 2007 at 15:15
Personally, I felt that the Poll Tax was quite a good idea - yet look at the civil disturbance that caused! How long before yet another salami slice off of parliamentary supremacy will similarly be the straw that breaks the camel's back (oops, mixed metaphors) as regards the forebearance of the public towards the main parties' masochistic fetish for relinquishing self-government? With devolution-plus in one direction and the trundle towards a Eurostate in the other, Westminster politicians are increasingly irrelevant. Who says that turkeys never vote for Christmas!
Posted by: Ken Stevens | June 22, 2007 at 16:00
So why doesnt Cameron offer a referendum on EU membership and guarantee a landslide GE victory?
Posted by: Doh | June 22, 2007 at 16:31
"...and ignore the insistent voices of those calling on us to leave - there's no need whatever for that..." (Andrew Lilico):
Andrew Lilico's judgement may be right; BUT, if we are to have any chance at all of defending Britain's interests within the EU, we must be absolutely clear that the final sanction available to us IS withdrawal - and that we ARE prepared to do so if it comes to the crunch. Otherwise, the French, Germans, et al, will just carry on walking all over us.
Surely, this latest poll is a golden opportunity for DC & Co to appeal - unashamedly - to the "traditionalists" within our ranks; and the Europhiles will just have to put up with it.
Posted by: John Waine | June 23, 2007 at 01:21
John@1:21
I don't disagree with your point about being willing to withdraw if absolutely necessary. As matters stand, we should see no inevitability about staying in the EU for the long term. It's just a set of treaties, like any other. We have treaties that are applicable for a while, then we move on to the next thing.
Perhaps the EU treaties we have signed might have slightly longer application that some - and I see no reason for us to reach for the threat of withdrawal as an early negotiating tool (there are lots of others we should be trying first, and I would expect them to work), but, sure - just as the US President never rules out using nuclear weapons on anyone, we should not rule out withdrawing from the EU if we have to - as a highly-unlikely-but-in-principle-available option.
Posted by: Andrew Lilico | June 23, 2007 at 01:43
that the final sanction available to us IS withdrawal
Not so. The final sanction for a Net Contributor is to withhold subscriptions.
Posted by: TomTom | June 23, 2007 at 06:28