Keep those seatbelts fastened

When I recommended that we all fasten our seatbelts last week I expected many difficult moments during the Brown honeymoon but not today's defection of Quentin Davies to Labour.

I knew he was unhappy with Project Cameron.  He has felt shabbily treated by the leadership.  A lifelong Europhile he wrote for ConservativeHome only two weeks ago - disagreeing with the party's alleged politicking on Iraq.  I bumped into him during the grammar schools row and he told me that he was unhappy with the leadership's line.  But he was in favour of grammar schools!  Why is he joining a party that hates selection?  Mr Davies has opposed ID cards and the Government's anti-terror measures.  He has opposed the ban on foxhunting.  He opposed Labour on tuition fees.  He opposes state funding of political parties.  Mr Davies cannot easily accuse David Cameron of having no bedrock and then defect to a party with a worldview that stands in contradiction to his own twenty year parliamentary record.

Labour are clever in the way they spun Mr Davies' defection.  The subheadline on the BBC website is: Tory MP Quentin Davies defects to Labour, saying David Cameron does not "stand for anything".

The long letter he sent to Mr Cameron mentioned a number of areas of difference - including over nuclear power.  But at the heart of his defection is Europe and the EPP row.  CCHQ will now be frightened that other Europhile MPs and MEPs, in particular, might defect if the party campaigns strongly against the draft Treaty.  Mr Cameron must not retreat from his Euroscepticism.  The party must not be held to ransom by a small number of MPs who are out of touch with the rest of the country.  Cameron must not look like he can be bullied into changing his position.  Labour are already determined to present him as weak.

In his letter he makes a big deal about Mr Cameron supposedly breaking his pledge on the EPP.  What about Mr Davies' pledge to the voters of Grantham and Stamford?  They thought they were electing a loyal Tory.  I feel sorry for his activists in Lincolnshire.  I spoke at their political supper club at the start of the year.  They were loyal to him despite his enthusiasm for Europe.  He has betrayed that loyalty. At least they'll soon be able to choose a new candidate who will be closer to their views.

I wonder if Mr Davies will be on Mr Brown's frontbench by the end of the week?  In fact I wonder if this defection is rooted in Mr Brown making an Ashdown-style approach to Mr Davies to serve in his Government?

And all of us?  We must not over-react.  A few weeks ago the newspapers thought that Brown was unlikely to save Labour.  They'll all be singing his praises in the next few days but it probably won't last.  There does need to be more breadth and depth to Project Cameron but it will be hard to say that there is nothing to it after this summer's schedule of policy announcements.  I am also confident that the new communications guru, Andy Coulson, will help the party to develop stronger messages for our core voters and strivers.  Labour's failure on tax, crime, immigration and fighting poverty will also become clearer and clearer.  Keep those belts fastened everyone.

Comments

[Richard Weatherill]

Wise words, Tim. We certainly shouldn't let ourselves get too riled by a bunch of NuLab trolls. QD's rather pathetic justification for making his (unnecessarily vitriolic) letter public tells you all you need to know.

[Saloon bar bore]

Yes, don't over react. Keep steering towards the rocks, there's a good chap.

[Andrew Woodman]

Fully agree Tim. One thought. how about offering Frank Field Grantham and Stamford? (With association approval of course)

[MrB]

Well at least we are beginning the fight-back. Alan Duncan is painting this as showing that Labour are importing "Old fashioned views". Hopefully this sort of language is designed to make this defection more evidence that we are changing ourselves for the better and that Labour is stagnant.

[bluepatriot]

Very good idea Andrew!

[Kevin Davis]

Good post Tim, This is more about Quentin Davies than Cameron. Even if he did think Cameron stood for nothing at least he does not stand for the things you have mentioned Brown has.

Cannot imagine Brown will give him a ministerial post and there are going to be many Labour MP's who will wonder how their party has become one in which Davies can feel at home.

[Voice from the South West]

A very good post Tim. Perhaps Quentin is defecting because like Peter Temple-Morris and Emma Nicholson, he knows he won't get his seat in the House of Lords, or like the latter a seat in the European Parliament. It wouldn't surprise me considering his pro-European views.

[Jonathan]

Don't kid yourselves - Cameron's heading for disaster. Don't spin this as some sort of positive - the fact that Cameron can no longer command support from his own backbenches says more about him than anything else.

[Jennifer Wells]

GET ALAN DUNCAN OFF THE TELLY NOW!

Many of us have old-fashioned views!!

How many older voters is Mr Duncan's talk going to upset?

[Man in a Shed]

In the end QD will damage Labour more than us.

The continuation of a sovereign British government still has over whelming support in the country. QD perhaps thinks that, secretly, that is no longer the Labour view.

[MrB]

Old fashioned views can't win us an election Jennifer, we have to stay on course.

[Andrew Woodman]

I thought Alan Duncan came across well on Sky.

[David Belchamber]

Perhaps there will now be a two way traffic; we could do with Nick Clegg, Frank Field and Kate Hoey among others.

[TomTom]

Quentin Davies has a viewpoint and feels the Conservative Party does not suit him after 30 years. If he gets the kind of ad hominem vitriol that juveniles in politics direct at those who expose some of their failings, then it will simply reflect badly on the Conservative Party.

Such as the Telegraph describing Davies as "ultra Left"......what does this mean ?

To most people he is a typical Conservative banker who likes the EU and takes an independent line of several issues. That is something they respect even if they don't agree - so attacking men like this for not being slavishly on-message is what turns voters away from political parties.

Be careful.

[Tony Hannon]

Here's the letter - pretty damming stuff. Looks like someone didn't get your memo Tim!!

Quentin Davies' letter to Cameron:

I have been a member of the Conservative Party for over 30 years, and have served for 20 years in the Parliamentary Party, in a variety of backbench and front bench roles.

This has usually been a great pleasure, and always a great privilege. It is therefore with much sadness that I write you this letter. But you are entitled to know the truth.

Under your leadership the Conservative Party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything.

It has no bedrock. It exists on shifting sands. A sense of mission has been replaced by a PR agenda.

For the first 19 years of my time in the House, in common I imagine with the great majority of my colleagues, it never occurred to me to leave the party, whatever its current vicissitudes.

Ties of familiarity, of friendship, and above all of commitment to constituency supporters are for all of us very strong and incredibly difficult to break.

But they cannot be the basis for living a lie - for continuing in an organisation when one no longer has respect for its leadership or understanding of its aims.

I have come to that appreciation slowly and painfully and as a result of many things, some of which are set out below.

The first horrible realisation that I might not be able to continue came last year. My initial reaction was to suppress it.

You had come to office as leader of the party committed to break a solemn agreement we had with the European People's Party to sit with them in the EPP-ED Group during the currency of this European Parliament.

For seven months you vacillated, and during that time we had several conversations.

It was quite clear to me that you had no qualms in principle about tearing up this agreement, and that it was only the balance of prevailing political pressures which led you ultimately to stop short of doing so (though since then you have hardly acted in good faith in continuing with the agreement, for example you never attend the EPP-ED Summits claiming that you are "too busy" - even though half a dozen or more Prime Ministers are always present.)

Of course I knew that you had put yourself in a position such that if you did not leave the EPP-ED Group you would be breaking other promises you had given to colleagues, and on which many of them had counted in voting for you at the leadership election.

But that I fear only made the position worse. The trouble with trying to face both ways is that you are likely to lose everybody's confidence.

Aside from the rather significant issues of principle involved, you have of course paid a practical price for your easy promises.

You are the first leader of the Conservative Party who (for different reasons) will not be received either by the President of the United States, or by the Chancellor of Germany (up to, and very much including, Iain Duncan Smith every one of your predecessors was most welcome both in the White House and in all the chancelleries of Europe).

It is fair to say that you have so far made a shambles of your foreign policy, and that would be a great handicap to you - and, more seriously, to the country - if you ever came to power.

I have never done business with people who deliberately break contracts, and I knew last year that if you left the EPP-ED Group I could no longer remain in a party under your leadership.

In fact you held back and I tried to put this ugly incident out of my mind and carry on.

But the last year has been a series of shocks and disappointments. You have displayed to the full both the vacuity and the cynicism of your favourite slogan 'change to win'.

One day in January, I think a Wednesday or Thursday, you and George Osborne discovered that Gordon Brown was to make a speech on the environment the following Monday.

You wished to pre-empt him. So without any consultation with anyone - experts, think tanks, the industry, even the Shadow Cabinet - you announced an airline or flight tax which as you have subsequently heard from me in a long paper (which has never been refuted) and I am sure from many others, is certainly defective and contradictory - and in my view complete nonsense.

The PR pressures had overridden any considerations of economic rationality or national interest, or even what would have been to others normal businesslike prudence.

Equally it seems that your hasty rejection of nuclear energy as a 'last resort' was also driven by your PR imperatives rather than by other considerations. Many colleagues hope that that will be the subject of your next u-turn.

You regularly (I think on a pre-arranged PR grid or timetable) make apparent policy statements which are then revealed to have no intended content at all. They appear to be made merely to strike a pose, to contribute to an image.

You thus sometimes treat important subjects with the utmost frivolity. Examples are 'inequality' (the 'Polly Toynbee' moment - again you had a paper from me!), marriage and the tax system (even your own Party Chairman was unable to explain on the BBC what you really meant) and, most recently, mass consultation of the public on policy decisions. (In view of your complete failure to consult with anyone, within the Party or outside it, on many of the matters I have touched on, or on many others, the latter was perhaps intended as a joke).

Of course I could go on - up to three weeks ago when you were prepared to stoop to putting forward a resolution on Iraq (demanding an inquiry while our military involvement continues) which it was admitted at a Party meeting the following Monday (by George Osborne in your presence) was motivated by party political considerations. That was a particularly bad moment."

Believe it or not I have no personal animus against you. You have always been perfectly courteous in our dealings. You are intelligent and charming.

As you know, however, I never supported you for the leadership of the Party - even when, after my preferred candidate Ken Clarke had been defeated in the first round, it was blindingly obvious that you were going to win.

Nor, for the same reasons, have I ever sought office in your shadow administration.
Although you have many positive qualities you have three, superficiality, unreliability and an apparent lack of any clear convictions, which in my view ought to exclude you from the position of national leadership to which you aspire and which it is the presumed purpose of the Conservative Party to achieve.

Believing that as I do, I clearly cannot honestly remain in the Party. I do not intend to leave public life. On the contrary I am looking forward to joining another party with which I have found increasingly I am naturally in agreement and which has just acquired a leader I have always greatly admired, who I believe is entirely straightforward, and who has a towering record, and a clear vision for the future of our country which I fully share.

Because my constituents, to whose interests of course I remain devoted, are entitled to know the full background, I am releasing this letter to the press."

[Tory T]

Good for Alan Duncan, an area MP.

The hypocrisy of Davies is unbelievable. It's all about the EPP for him. Look, if the wheat gets sorted from the chaff now, two years before a GE, we are in good shape. I would welcome space in the MEP ranks to insert moderate center right candidates in place of the Caroline Jacksons of this world.

[sunny]

Strong rumours another defection is on the way - seatbelts fastened indeed!

[Paul J]

Defectors can never be trusted by their old party, or the one they join (usually because they think it enhances their prospects). Even Sir Winston was never totally trusted by the Conservatives or Liberals - he changed sides when it suited him.

[Tory T]

For heaven's sake Tony, that is posted on the prior thread, no need to suck up the bandwith

[Tory T]

Rik W posted this on political betting and it deserves a ConHome airing.

Quentin Davies speaks about Gordon Brown:

"Quentin Davies

16 MARCH 2005

“the Chancellor has been losing control… His projections… have been consistently wrong. He has been wrong about both revenues and expenditure… The Chancellor took risks… he is imprudent… a great worry… very worrying… he simply wanted to win the next election—if he can… it does not matter what happens afterwards… the Chancellor went in for an orgy of self-congratulation… deceiving other people… complacency… he is not prudent and responsible, and not a person to be entrusted with the management of anybody’s finances, let alone the country’s finances… unattractive and frankly problematic… an absolutely devastating misjudgement and mistake—the destruction of our pensions system… We have not had a word of apology from the Chancellor… He was just incredibly imprudent… extraordinarily incompetent… extraordinarily naïve… desperately complacent… As a result of that self-congratulation and complacency, the Chancellor is becoming so cut off that he is beginning to underestimate the intelligence of the electorate… I trust and believe that something nasty will happen to the Chancellor in electoral terms before too long. He will have no one but himself to blame."

Quentin Davies MP, HC Debs, 16 Mar 2005: Column 309-318

[tapestry]

So he's leaving because our Dave stands for nothing, and because he stands for an independent line on Europe outside the EPP, and to be less reliant on nuclear power. I'm confused already.

[MrB]

Send that to David Cameron so he can use it at PMQs....that going to be the real challenge tomorrow!

[malcolm]

What a truly dreadful letter. If you're going to defect ,defect but why do it as vitriolically as Quentin Davies has done. This obviously very difficult for the Conservative party and we'll see what David Cameron is made of. Personally I would have much preferred it if he had made a much sterner defence of his EPP policy and foreign policy in his reply.
Personally although the defection of any MP can never be spun as good news Quentin Davies is one who will I think be the one we can afford to lose most.
His interventions in the call for an enquiry in the Iraq debate were a disgrace and his defence of it on CH was one of the poorest justifications of his behaviour imaginable.
I very much hope that Quentin Davies will now go on the airwaves to praise Tony Blairs handling of the Iraq war to the skies and also the huge benefits being brought to this country through our membership of the EPP-ED. That should drive many voters into our arms.

[John]

Quentin Davies on Gordon Brown March 2005 (from Iain Dale's Blog)

"I trust and believe that something nasty will happen to the Chancellor in electoral terms before too long. He will have no one but himself to blame"

There are many more supportive comments of this ilk from that speech.

Quentin Davies is obviously bent on aiding the future Prime Minister in this cause!

[Londoner]

Whoever wrote that bit in Davies' letter about the wonderful Gordon Brown obviously hadn't read 2005 Hansard - well done Tory T !!

Maybe he feels it's safe to join Labour now that they are going to have a so much less damaging Chancellor.

If any bookmaker is offering odds against a Govt post for Davies by Friday - bite his hand off (that's so long as Brown doesn't now read Hansard and withdraw his offer).

[aristeides]

Eh? He has a problem with leaving the EPP but would now appear to be joining a member of the European Socialist group? Explain that one.

[Joseph]

June 26, 2007 at 16:50

Very apt and wise words TOM-TOM, I could not agree with you more.

Yes Jennifer, June 26, 2007 at 16:39, you are correct Alan Duncan does upset a lot of older people, please bear in mind they are the people who are most likely to cast a vote.
I once heard Alan Duncan being described on a TV Chat show ( I do believe it was Kilroy) where he was accompanied by Bernard Jenkins as "A despicable piece of humanity"
Not a nice thing to be called at any time.
I have never heard of Quentin Davis being described as anything other than a gent along with quite a few more of his colleagues.
I think this is the first of many of the defections, some will go to other parties, a few will retire.
We have seen and heard one ex-cabinet minister, one sitting MP who has been Tory for a lot longer than people posting to this blog have been born both speak out about Mr Cameron's direction.
Old Fashioned views may not win elections, but principle will which Mr Cameron is so obviously lacks.
Please bear in mind the most famous of all defectors was also the worlds greatest statesman and to slag Mr Davis off does not go down very well with outsiders looking in, it just reinforces a lot of people's opinion of "The Pasty Party" and gives ammunition to political foes.

[Tony Hannon]

Of course, Tory T, it took bandwith to scold me...

You're right - I apologise - I'm a Labour supporter but I did want to see how people are taking the damaging extent of the letter.

Doesn't it hurt? For the last 10 years right wing people have been accusing the Government of spin - now one of your senior guys leaves the Conservatives, citing internal examples, because:

"You regularly (I think on a pre-arranged PR grid or timetable) make apparent policy statements which are then revealed to have no intended content at all. They appear to be made merely to strike a pose, to contribute to an image."

If I were a Tory I'd be gutted.

[A Moderate Conservative]

This is not about Europe. Quentin has left simply because he does not feel the party needs to change and apply it’s principles in a modern setting which Cameron is trying to do and must continue to do if the Conservatives stand any chance of winning a general election again!

[Tory T]

Tony, I think we're all fine with Labour supporters who declare themselves as such (as you've done) but it is netiquette to read the site you're posting on!

Davies letter leaves no doubt as to his main reason for leaving - Europe and the EPP.

That's not going to hurt our party. It'll hurt yours.

And Davies is "senior" only in the sense of years.

[malcolm]

It's never good to lose an MP even one with Quentin Davies lack of morality. You'll be delighted at the MP your party has acquired, apart from being in favour of a more federalist Europe he's also so much of a democrat he opposes an enquiry into the Iraq war. If I was Labour I'd be gutted

[Joseph]

Posted by: Joseph | June 26, 2007 at 17:40

So sorry ,that should have read "The Nasty Party"...then again I do not know about that..it is either water on the brain, the rain or just plain old fashioned getting old, I do not know which!!!
I will allow others to fathom that one out.

[MrB]

Hahaha, Joseph I suggest you look at the evidence Iain Dale has on his blog, and at QD's distinctly lacklustre record as an MP. There is no way after reading that you could believe he is potentially a great statesmen or anything other than a selfish career politician.

[TomTom]

or anything other than a selfish career politician.

We have 661 of those don't we ?

[CCTV]

he's also so much of a democrat he opposes an enquiry into the Iraq war.

Maybe he's simply not as treacherous as others who seek to leave British troops high and dry in combat while lawyers pick over the reasons they are getting killed and maimed........but politicians are quite happy to treat British soldiers like dirt if there is some political point-scoring available.....it is a pity they don't simply return home and shoot the politicians

[MrB]

TomTom, according to Joseph we're talking about the next Churchill. =D

[MrB]

Actually, it doesnt really matter that much, this story has been pushed out of the news by the floods and by Blair's envoy job, so it's not as big a deal as it could have been.

[601]

Why should Frank field defect to the Tories.

Just what is our policy on social security?

What reforms do we have planned?

[Joseph]

Posted by: MrB | June 26, 2007 at 17:52

I think the old adage as to he who laughs last laughs longest, if you care to re-visit my post you will see that it was Sir Winston Churchill deeds which I remarked they both had in common, I neither said or implied that their respective political stature was the same, you jumped to that conclusion.
And as for Iain Dale's blog, that is one man's opinion, he like you and I only has one vote and it does not follow that I should blindly agree with his findings, blog owner or not.
We have long since left the days of having to doff our caps to the gentry, landowners, mine owners and certainly never to blog owners.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

GET ALAN DUNCAN OFF THE TELLY NOW!

Many of us have old-fashioned views!!

How many older voters is Mr Duncan's talk going to upset?

Posted by: Jennifer Wells | June 26, 2007 at 16:39

And supported by "Joseph" @ 17:40

These two post have homophobic undertones - you should hang your heads in shame or join NuLab which clearly welcomes homophobes, e.g. a certain Mr. Q. Davies!

[MrB]

No Joseph, he has extracts of comments that QD has made in the past regarding Gordon Brown which he now appears to be contradicting. Not opinion, fact.

[Editor]

You can have old-fashioned views and not be homophobic, Justin. Let's not judge each other too harshly please!

[Ashton]

this traitor is clearly bitter and has little idea of what he's doing. he says DC doesn't stand for anything, but it seems vacuous to me to join a party purely on the personality of it's leader. we've already pointed out he almost disagrees entirely with Labour apart from on Europe.

like brian sedgemore before the general election, this will drift off into the distance without so much as a graze on the party's reputation. it will only cause us trouble if we froth and buck at it like mad horses.

Lord Tebbit has got this one on the nose. The sooner we lose ill-educated moaning minnies like this one, our party will stand more united than it has been for an age.

When Davies' ilk have gone, we will be left with those who, regardless of whether they agree or disagree with a particular leadership tactic, truly believe in Conservatism, and will stand united under the Oak Tree for the betterment of Our Party and Our Country.

No flowers please

[Ken Stevens]

601 | June 26, 2007 at 18:22
"Why should Frank Field defect to the Tories.
Just what is our policy on social security?
What reforms do we have planned?"

Recruit him and acquire policy & reforms!

[Matthew]

If Cameron is clever tomorrow his first question will be: Is the Prime Minister happy with the defection of Quentin Davies? He can then stick the boot in with that quote about Gordon and take the initiative.

[Joseph]

Justin, allow me to set the record straight. I support Labour but I am not a member of the Labour party and I am not a troll either, I post my honestly held opinion whether people like it or not, or agree with it or not. That is their right as it is mine to express it.
Now only the very narrow minded would take issue with that statement.
Being elderly myself I probably do seem to younger people very old fashioned. However age is a fact of life and I cannot turn the clock back, that does not mean I should not be entitled to my opinion or have my right to express that opinion freely that is not a prerogative of the young only.

[Ashton]

If Cameron is clever tomorrow his first question will be: Is the Prime Minister happy with the defection of Quentin Davies? He can then stick the boot in with that quote about Gordon and take the initiative.

Posted by: Matthew | June 26, 2007 at 19:50

and then blair will just quote QD's letter right back. no matter what we have to say, QD/ Labour HQ have tried to hand Blair a cannonball for his last PMQs. the best thing to do is just not let them use it

[Howard Davis]

Alan Duncan was appaulng on Channel 4 News - he was far ruder than Quentin Davies's letter was.

What's wrong with old fashioned views Alan? It's old-fashioned views that built this party up, which David Cameron seems determined to destroy! It's no surprise the MP's are leaving.

[Howard Davis]

Alan Duncan was appaulng on Channel 4 News - he was far ruder than Quentin Davies's letter was.

What's wrong with old fashioned views Alan? It's old-fashioned views that built this party up, which David Cameron seems determined to destroy! It's no surprise the MP's are leaving.

[Howard Davis]

Alan Duncan was appaulng on Channel 4 News - he was far ruder than Quentin Davies's letter was.

What's wrong with old fashioned views Alan? It's old-fashioned views that built this party up, which David Cameron seems determined to destroy! It's no surprise the MP's are leaving.

[Stephen Tolkinghorne]

Howard, that was so good it deserved posting thrice.

[Matthew]

and then blair will just quote QD's letter right back. no matter what we have to say, QD/ Labour HQ have tried to hand Blair a cannonball for his last PMQs. the best thing to do is just not let them use it

Posted by: Ashton Cull | June 26, 2007 at 19:57

Absolute nonsense to think he isn't going to use it anyway. Better to take the initiative. Blair will not be expecting it, and is damned either way. If he says he is happy then can quote back at him. Can't say he's not happy. If he dodges the question just ask him whether he agrees with the 2005 views expressed by Mr Davies. Simple.

[Ashton]

blair gets flummoxed when we avoid what labour have fed into the news cycle. I recall one occassion when at least half of Blair's folder of all knowledge was on one particular subject that DC completely avoided and everyone expected him to take up. It shook him up.

Besides, PMQs is meant to be where important matters are raised and the executive is questioned. QuenToad Davies does not even merit 1 question, and we would denigrate the institution if we took Labour's bait. Let Labour paddle in the shallow end, and we'll tackle the issues.

[CCTV]

Just watched Alan Duncan on Channel 4 News showing just what a snide little man he is.

He is lightweight in every respect and always was, but the damage he does to the Conservative Party is immense - he gives it a vicious little edge just as he did when he accosted Lord Nolan.

[ToMTom]

The sooner we lose ill-educated moaning minnies like this one,

Ill-educated ?

The Dragon School ?

Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge ?

Frank Knox Fellow at Harvard University ?

So now we know that Ashley Cull thinks these institutions produce the ill-educated

So much for Conservatrive education policy !

[Ashton]

Who's Ashley? :-\

Perhaps I should clarify: ill-educated as to the party he was formerly a member of

[Mr Honk]

why don't all the Cameroon supporters get out of our party and give it back to us

[Reality check]

Alan Duncan sold out to the Camerloons long ago and has lost all credibility. He is a low life "rent a quote" boy!

[Rebecca B]

Frankly I thought Alan Duncan came across quite well. Bear in mind that he was facing a man who has just betrayed him and his party across the table.

A few points important in our Soundbite Age

Alan Duncan was well presented - Quentin Loser looked like a shambles

Alan Duncan made brief clear points - Quentin Loser was rambling and seemed to be contradicting himself as if he had not quite had enough time to learn the script.

Alan Duncan appeared to be quite relaxed, almost jovial - Quentin Loser was agitated and uncomforatable making him look insincere.

IMHO Alan Duncan succeeded in getting across the message that QD's floor crossing was an irrelevent nuiscance barely worthy of the press's, or anyone elses time.

[matt wright]

In photos Quentin Davies looks like someone being paraded by Sadam Hussein for the media in some weird stand off. Bizzare.

Matt